This is true, but on the other hand the industry in general can be very political based. Can't speak as to the Bakken, but one example is the state of New York did not move and allow fracking of wells when Marcellus drilling was booming. Now that boom is dead, as rig numbers in Pennsylvania have dropped drastically with many of those rigs being moved to Mid-Continent area, the Bakken, and some down in Texas/NM.
There is another factor at play to which is strictly financial. I've seen a few lease maps for the Bakken in Montana, and some of the companies that are major players there, have overextended themselves in places like PA (the Marcellus) and OH (the Utica - which has not played out as anticipated).
Hard to predict rig numbers though in 2025, as you yourself said its a changing dynamic, plus technology will also affect that. Rigs are going to go where the boom is. Who is to say that the Bakken is the best option in 2025? I see Jerry Brown is signing a bill allowing fracking in California, which will be challenged as it will get very political there.
However if drilling is allowed to happen in the Monterey Shale, and it starts to pay as expected, I can see many rigs migrating away from the Bakken (and thus Montana) and heading to California.The Monterey Shale is estimated at having the largest deep shale oil reserves in the world....and it will be a hot boom should drilling be allowed to happen.
So in the end, yes geology plays a major part but so does politics and so does investors. All together it makes for day-to-day changing environment.