Time for a Major Re-Evaluation

[citygriz]

Excellent post, Jared.

If you had wanted to talk about high expectations before the season, you should have come over and sat next to me. I was giddy about our prospects. So in a large sense, my post is re-calibrating my own expectations to the honest-to-god reality. These:
--That, yes, this is a tougher schedule than I realized;
--Once again, as with the Lady Griz, the injury/sickness bug has jumped up and bit us;
--Once again, discipline problems have arisen, as they have almost every year of the DeCuire regime. Alphonso Anderson and Karl Nicholas, two guys we could really use this year, left the program. Now Timmy Falls has been disciplined, as was Rorie a couple of years ago. If DeCuire were not a basketball coach, he might be a Marine Sargent.
--We really miss Jack Williams;
--None of our three freshman bigs is as ready to contribute as I'd expected.

But, yes, bad starts sometimes make good ends, and I am sure not quitting on this team, or any Grizzly team.

Just sayin'.

 

[Jaredkuehn]

Excellent post, Jared.

If you had wanted to talk about high expectations before the season, you should have come over and sat next to me. I was giddy about our prospects. So in a large sense, my post is re-calibrating my own expectations to the honest-to-god reality. These:
--That, yes, this is a tougher schedule than I realized;
--Once again, as with the Lady Griz, the injury/sickness bug has jumped up and bit us;
--Once again, discipline problems have arisen, as they have almost every year of the DeCuire regime. Alphonso Anderson and Karl Nicholas, two guys we could really use this year, left the program. Now Timmy Falls has been disciplined, as was Rorie a couple of years ago. If DeCuire were not a basketball coach, he might be a Marine Sargent.
--We really miss Jack Williams;
--None of our three freshman bigs is as ready to contribute as I'd expected.

But, yes, bad starts sometimes make good ends, and I am sure not quitting on this team, or any Grizzly team.

Just sayin'.

Citay, I would never question your loyalty!

Its early in the season and the Griz have shown they belong in the Mid-major polls. They have to take care of business against NDSU. The SDSU game has the potential to be a statement game heading into conference. I don't have any expectations for the Arizona game, but we know how tough the Griz can be when they are firing on cylinders. Don't write that one off as a loss just yet. There is still a lot of time left to make a memorable season.

 

[ordigger]

My expectations weren't as high as some of you. I still feel very good about this team. Not having Akoh, and just having him back for one game so far, has been a big negative. Having Falls out and then not fully back in the mix has been a negative. I'm not sure Dorsey and Manuel are in the mix, or comfortable in the mix and their roles, yet.

There is a lot of talent on this team. More than last year. There are some younger new guys who have potential to contribute or fill in, in some roles. Much more depth this year.

I think the team will continue to grow and improve. Hopefully, they can be winning conference games, as they learn to consistently hit on all cylinders.

The future is bright. It will be a fun season. Hopefully, the team will work up to its (high) potential.

Spot on post, way too much panic for a team without some of their weapons up to this point.

 

[br fan]

The Griz aren’t as deep as they were last year at the 5 position without going small, and that hurts them. By losing both Fab and Nicholas the Griz are a lot thinner in the middle. Last year either Akoh, Fab or Nicholas could each play post without much of a drop off, and they had Besovic as a role player. Last year Travis could also play two of the three together with one of them at the four and have a pretty big team at least by BSC standards.

This year I think the Griz only have Akoh, who’s probably better as a 4, who can play the 5 in the regular rotation without going small. From what I have seen so far I think Anderson, Kramer and Carter are each good role players, but I don’t think any of them are yet ready to be in the regular rotation without a drop off.

Once the Griz hit conference last year the Griz had an 8 man rotation with the starting 5, and for most of the year a guard, a wing and a post coming off the bench in Falls, Sayeed and Nicholas. Once the Griz get to conference I think we’ll again see Travis use a 7 or 8 man rotation, with 7 of those being Akoh, Rorie, Oguine, Bobby, Sayeed, Falls and Dorsey. The 8th will probably be Manuel if he continues to shoot well, and the Griz will then either have to cut the minutes of Rorie, Oguine or Falls (which probably isn’t going to happen), or they’re going to have to go even smaller which will hurt the inside game and rebounding. If Manuel gets in a shooting slump, ala Bevens, I see Travis having a 7 man rotation during conference.

I think the Griz will have another good year, but I don’t see them being as good as last year’s team. If they can play small because the other team doesn’t have that good of an inside game they will probably dominate the other team. Likewise the athleticism of this year’s team will always keep them in the game. But if the Griz have to stay big because of the other team’s inside game, especially against a P5 team like we’re seeing in some of these non-conference games, then I think the Griz have problems because we’re not as deep at the post.

 

[PlayerRep]

Interesting and good post. I see that Dorsey and Morehead are both 6'7", but listed as guards. The only posts are Akoh and the 3 rookies. I had sort of forgotten about Nicholas, although he didn't play much late in the year.

You may be on to something. I was thinking the significant loss of Krys was more than made up by Dorsey and Manuel.

The good thing is that the taller "guards", or at least Morehead and Pridgett, can play post. Pridgett plays bigger than his 6'5" height, and the true guards can rebound (as opposed to defend giants).

I wonder if Travis should have picked a backup big earlier and just focused on him. I like the rookie bigs, but none seems to have emerged yet.

 

[Paytonlives]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7_KIzbktgJk

 

[Grizfan-24]

I posted this in segments on twitter, but I'll post it here as well.

I think it is easy to measure the season based upon expectations, and I think it feels like a downer when the team can't find wins in those 'big' games. That being said...

1. This non-conference schedule was always pretty tight in regards to the type of resume builder games. You can thank the onerous Big Sky Conference schedule for that. Really there were four games on the schedule, only four, that would have qualified for the type of resume building that would have helped with seeding. Georgia State, Creighton, Irvine and Arizona. When you have so few games of import, and a pretty spartan non-conference schedule to begin with, I think you could have locked the team into that 13-15 range without much work looking at the schedule.The team doesn't have a bad loss, but it doesn't have a great win either. There just wasn't much margin.

2. It is of my limited coaching impression, that people are over blowing the Fab effect. We have had 2 games with Akoh in the lineup. He is an excellent low post defender and is essential element to make DeCuire's pack line defense most effective. He can front and has the lateral quickness to play effective help side defense. His absence has forced Moorehead to defend more in the post and that weakens the perimeter defense. We aren't going to be that good with our two best post defenders (Fab and Akoh) in the lineup, but we have missed Akoh's presence. I do think if he had been around all of non-conference, I don't know that we would be beating the Fab drum as much.

Moreover, he provides the type of low post offense presence that will loosen up and increase the ball movement on offense. We have gotten perimeter oriented and the ball movement has at time gotten pretty stagnant. The rotations haven't been that great, because teams post defense hasn't had to move. Neither Andersen, Kramer or Carter provide that post presence on offense so it is super easy to play of guys and make the lanes much more difficult to get to the basket.

3. Give some time for the teams rotation to coalesce. One of the issues, at least as I see it, is that last year's rotation was highly dependent on Pridgett's role as a multi-tool. He could play the 2-4 defensively, and was an excellent secondary option on offense. His emergence this year as a primary cog sort of points to his understated importance last year.

Dorsey, Manuel, Falls and to a lesser degree the triumvirate of post players aren't as multi tool like and as such I think have struggled to find a role and lineup that brings out the best in those guys. Injries, illness and absences have led to those issues. Given time the big three off the bench are going to be given the right rotation to take advantage of their skill sets. Just have seen a lack of continuity, and I think it isn't a plug and play type rotation as it was last year with Pridgett.


Just my observations, but I think we will be fine. I think the team is deeper and different from last year. Last years team was a finely tuned rotation of 7 guys who fit together well. This team is deeper, does a lot of things better but is going to require some work to get the best lineups out there. This team does have some warts, but I think in time those issues will dissipate as the team gets more consistent playing time.There just aren't many Big Sky conference teams that can match the depth and diversity. Just doesn't look like it now, it is early. We will be fine.

 

[citygriz]

The big problem is the "big problem."

DeCuire was a point guard, and we all know the importance of point guards. Little wonder then that in the fifth year of his regime, we have one of the best guard lines in the history of the program: Oguine, Rorie, Falls.

Bigs? Different story.

In his fifth year, Decuire has produced one big that will help us this year, Akoh. Can't really blame him for this, but the fact remains: Anderson and Nicholas washed out, Jack Williams went elsewhere, and the three freshmen are unlikely to contribute much this year.

You can't go far with just one credible big man.

The challenge for this staff now: Decide which of the three freshmen will develop quickest, and make sure that guy gets enough playing time to play like a sophomore by tournament time.

 

[Proud Griz Man]

The problem is the "problem."

At Montana's level we will always be asking " wouldn't it have been great if Krysko was on this team with this group of guards?" or what if " Will Cherry had played on the Krysko / Monty-coached team ?". I watched players like Rodney Brandon and Rob Hurley and admired their toughness, and see that lacking in recent Griz teams. It is the same with the Lady Griz " wouldn't it have been great if Mandy Morales and Shannon Cate played simultaneously". It is really no criticism of the Griz recruiting, but an acknowledgement that a small school attracts a few gems at a time but rarely has six GOATs on the same team.

 

[grizzlyjournal]

Good thread. The Griz are still a bit of a question mark because three players haven't been able to log important minutes as had been expected. Obviously this affects all teams to some degree and is cyclical (though Shannon Schweyen's team over the past two years were hit hard. Hope that's past them). So, adversity can be viewed as events that interfere with a team's development, OR as an opportunity for younger players to step into roles early, thus providing depth as the season wears on. Monday's game against NDSU may provide an important step for this team moving forward.

 

[PlayerRep]

Okay. After that game, I agree with the OP.

 

[Zirg]

I always say, jokingly, that the easiest way to succeed is to lower the requirements for success.

But for our Griz, this is not a joke. After that devastating, lacerating implosion last night over the past five minutes, it's time we took another cold hard look at this team.

And this from a strong proponent of this staff, their recruiting abilities, and this team--arguably one of the most athletic in the history of the program, and playing great defense. From a guy who despite our one-sided loss to Creighton, thought this team fought the good fight, did our program proud, and said so on this board.

But the idea we can knock off a Power Five team? Get a 12-seed? Not gonna happen. Win the Sky again? I think even that is now up for debate.

Here's why--and what I took from last night's game.

--We really miss Krslovic. Because he wasn't as big as Akoh or as athletic as Nicholas, I took him for granted. But last night I saw how much we miss his inside game, those sly moves, clever angles and deft shots he'd mastered, not to mention his toughness and his leadership. I'd hoped Kramer would step in and be a more athletic Krslovic, but then something bad happened--I saw him play. It was instantly evident that Kramer, together with our other young bigs, are long-term projects, not plug-in replacements for Krslovic. Right now, we have no serious post offense, and our inability to get rebounds down the stretch last night was glaring.

--Timmy Falls must play more. I don't know how deep in the doghouse he is with this staff, but he's got to be on the court in critical late-game situations. Simply: He's our best playmaker. You just see better ball movement and more passing lanes opening when he's on the court. Which leads me to perhaps the most glaring part of this team right now....

Falls has 18 assists and 21 turn-overs. He may make the most impressive plays at times, but he counters it with 1 or 2 bone-headed turn-overs. The stats don't lie and I've seen it myself. He is out-of-control half the time and always trying to make un-necessary/beautiful passes. I don't think he'll ever "get it". Tons of talent, but something isn't getting through to him. And No way in hell is Timmy the best "play-maker" over Oguine or Rorie (or even Pridgett). They have tons of talent too, but know how to harness it and know when to make a pass. I really don't understand some of you people's obsession over Falls and his occasional amazing pass. He's more of a negative than a positive right now (he leads the team in fouls/minute as well) and until he figures it out, he'll continue to be a bit player.

 

[PeauxRouge]

I always say, jokingly, that the easiest way to succeed is to lower the requirements for success.

But for our Griz, this is not a joke. After that devastating, lacerating implosion last night over the past five minutes, it's time we took another cold hard look at this team.

And this from a strong proponent of this staff, their recruiting abilities, and this team--arguably one of the most athletic in the history of the program, and playing great defense. From a guy who despite our one-sided loss to Creighton, thought this team fought the good fight, did our program proud, and said so on this board.

But the idea we can knock off a Power Five team? Get a 12-seed? Not gonna happen. Win the Sky again? I think even that is now up for debate.

Here's why--and what I took from last night's game.

--We really miss Krslovic. Because he wasn't as big as Akoh or as athletic as Nicholas, I took him for granted. But last night I saw how much we miss his inside game, those sly moves, clever angles and deft shots he'd mastered, not to mention his toughness and his leadership. I'd hoped Kramer would step in and be a more athletic Krslovic, but then something bad happened--I saw him play. It was instantly evident that Kramer, together with our other young bigs, are long-term projects, not plug-in replacements for Krslovic. Right now, we have no serious post offense, and our inability to get rebounds down the stretch last night was glaring.

--Timmy Falls must play more. I don't know how deep in the doghouse he is with this staff, but he's got to be on the court in critical late-game situations. Simply: He's our best playmaker. You just see better ball movement and more passing lanes opening when he's on the court. Which leads me to perhaps the most glaring part of this team right now....

Falls has 18 assists and 21 turn-overs. He may make the most impressive plays at times, but he counters it with 1 or 2 bone-headed turn-overs. The stats don't lie and I've seen it myself. He is out-of-control half the time and always trying to make un-necessary/beautiful passes. I don't think he'll ever "get it". Tons of talent, but something isn't getting through to him. And No way in hell is Timmy the best "play-maker" over Oguine or Rorie (or even Pridgett). They have tons of talent too, but know how to harness it and know when to make a pass. I really don't understand some of you people's obsession over Falls and his occasional amazing pass. He's more of a negative than a positive right now (he leads the team in fouls/minute as well) and until he figures it out, he'll continue to be a bit player.

He's a great change-of-pace 6th man right now. He provides a good spark off the bench and seems good at hitting threes when we really need them.

 

[PeauxRouge]

Well, expectations for this team have blown up and been thrown out the window. We just lost to two of the (predicted) bottom dwellers of this league. I still expect us to win the tournament, and I think DeCuire will right the ship. This has been very disappointing so far.

Does anyone else feel see any similarities to the 2007 Football team? That was supposed to be our year on paper and it was such a disappointing thud at the end. This basketball team really feels like that, too, so far this year. Still time, though! Go Griz!

 

[Grizbeer]

I fully expect the griz to make it to the semi-final round of the 11 team conference tournament. 4th best in the bsc with 70 former pac 12 players on the roster ain't bad.

 

[AZGrizFan]

Well, expectations for this team have blown up and been thrown out the window. We just lost to two of the (predicted) bottom dwellers of this league. I still expect us to win the tournament, and I think DeCuire will right the ship. This has been very disappointing so far.

Does anyone else feel see any similarities to the 2007 Football team? That was supposed to be our year on paper and it was such a disappointing thud at the end. This basketball team really feels like that, too, so far this year. Still time, though! Go Griz!

What is it that you see that makes you so confident the ship can be “righted”? He gonna teach them all to suddenly start making 3’s consistently? EWU had a guy (AGAIN) who was draining them from 25 freaking feet consistently. We don’t have ONE guy we can consistently count on. Some nights they look like world beaters....other nights they look like bottom dwellers. I thought the whole point of the tough OOC was to prep them for nights like this. Instead, they play down (presumably) to their competition and end up losing...they appear “disinterested” for long stretches of the game, and get lazy on defense....

 

[grizindabox]

Well, expectations for this team have blown up and been thrown out the window. We just lost to two of the (predicted) bottom dwellers of this league. I still expect us to win the tournament, and I think DeCuire will right the ship. This has been very disappointing so far.

Does anyone else feel see any similarities to the 2007 Football team? That was supposed to be our year on paper and it was such a disappointing thud at the end. This basketball team really feels like that, too, so far this year. Still time, though! Go Griz!

What is it that you see that makes you so confident the ship can be “righted”? He gonna teach them all to suddenly start making 3’s consistently? EWU had a guy (AGAIN) who was draining them from 25 freaking feet consistently. We don’t have ONE guy we can consistently count on. Some nights they look like world beaters....other nights they look like bottom dwellers. I thought the whole point of the tough OOC was to prep them for nights like this. Instead, they play down (presumably) to their competition and end up losing...they appear “disinterested” for long stretches of the game, and get lazy on defense....

Better play on the defensive end can right the ship.

 

[fanofzoo]

At this rate we can kiss off any decent seed if we win the tourney and the way we are playing that is a big if.

 

[fanofzoo]

Well, expectations for this team have blown up and been thrown out the window. We just lost to two of the (predicted) bottom dwellers of this league. I still expect us to win the tournament, and I think DeCuire will right the ship. This has been very disappointing so far.

Does anyone else feel see any similarities to the 2007 Football team? That was supposed to be our year on paper and it was such a disappointing thud at the end. This basketball team really feels like that, too, so far this year. Still time, though! Go Griz!

What is it that you see that makes you so confident the ship can be “righted”? He gonna teach them all to suddenly start making 3’s consistently? EWU had a guy (AGAIN) who was draining them from 25 freaking feet consistently. We don’t have ONE guy we can consistently count on. Some nights they look like world beaters....other nights they look like bottom dwellers. I thought the whole point of the tough OOC was to prep them for nights like this. Instead, they play down (presumably) to their competition and end up losing...they appear “disinterested” for long stretches of the game, and get lazy on defense....

Better play on the defensive end can right the ship.

Still have to score though.

 

[grizindabox]

Well, expectations for this team have blown up and been thrown out the window. We just lost to two of the (predicted) bottom dwellers of this league. I still expect us to win the tournament, and I think DeCuire will right the ship. This has been very disappointing so far.

Does anyone else feel see any similarities to the 2007 Football team? That was supposed to be our year on paper and it was such a disappointing thud at the end. This basketball team really feels like that, too, so far this year. Still time, though! Go Griz!

What is it that you see that makes you so confident the ship can be “righted”? He gonna teach them all to suddenly start making 3’s consistently? EWU had a guy (AGAIN) who was draining them from 25 freaking feet consistently. We don’t have ONE guy we can consistently count on. Some nights they look like world beaters....other nights they look like bottom dwellers. I thought the whole point of the tough OOC was to prep them for nights like this. Instead, they play down (presumably) to their competition and end up losing...they appear “disinterested” for long stretches of the game, and get lazy on defense....

Better play on the defensive end can right the ship.

Still have to score though.

Offensively this team is the same as last year, it is the defensive play that is not even close.