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The Way to Beat NDSU

bisonboone11 said:
Htowngriz said:
Robsnotes4u said:
Umista said:
Hell man this is the most "down" thread we have put on the board!

I am looking at the gun closet thinking I should simply shoot myself and be done with it!

No chance? &&&&&&&& No chance?

This is a joke, right??????
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No, in a study done over a lot of college games if a team is a 25 point underdog you have a 3.97% chance of winning. The Versus app gives you 4%.

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yCFB2akLh4s[/youtube]
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That's ASSuming a team actually DESERVES to be a 25 point dog.

And the Versus app can S my D.
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I don't think the stats that he was looking at were making any assumptions. They were simply looking at the lines out of Vegas. My understanding (based on what I read from his link on AGS) was that Phil Steele compiled all of the lines out of vegas over a 15 year time period and looked at the actual results of the games. Based on those results, teams that were 24.5 to 31 point underdogs won 3.97% of the time. Obviously some of those teams may not have deserved to be 24.5 to 31 point underdogs, like you mentioned, but that didn't seem to be factored in.

Personally, I am very surprised that the lines came out at 25 points to start. I think it will be a lot closer than that.
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You are correct on the stats. Here is a question for you, as this thread is how to beat NDSU. The Bison games I have attended or watched over the last three years has one play that has extended drives more than any, I knew it was coming, and that was the QB draw. Do you think Wentz will be able to run it like Brock. The play was run to perfection.
 
Robsnotes4u said:
bisonboone11 said:
I don't think the stats that he was looking at were making any assumptions. They were simply looking at the lines out of Vegas. My understanding (based on what I read from his link on AGS) was that Phil Steele compiled all of the lines out of vegas over a 15 year time period and looked at the actual results of the games. Based on those results, teams that were 24.5 to 31 point underdogs won 3.97% of the time. Obviously some of those teams may not have deserved to be 24.5 to 31 point underdogs, like you mentioned, but that didn't seem to be factored in.

Personally, I am very surprised that the lines came out at 25 points to start. I think it will be a lot closer than that.
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You are correct on the stats. Here is a question for you, as this thread is how to beat NDSU. The Bison games I have attended or watched over the last three years has one play that has extended drives more than any, I knew it was coming, and that was the QB draw. Do you think Wentz will be able to run it like Brock. The play was run to perfection.
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I'm no expert, and maybe some of the other bison fans can provide their opinions, but personally I think it would be very difficult to run it as well as Brock did. From everything that I have heard about Wentz though, he is stronger and likely faster than Brock, so he might have the ability to do it, but Brock just seemed to be a very slippery runner. Another thing is that the o-line is not nearly as experienced this year. I'm not sure how difficult a QB draw play is to block, but that could make it tougher.

Basically, I'm saying that although Wentz may have the ability to run it as effectively as Brock, I would be surprised if it actually was as effective this year, simply because of how well it was run the past few years.
 
get'em_griz said:
Maxim said:
I think the way to beat NDSU is to have a great run defense and a superior pass offense. With that pass offense you need a mobile quarterback who can run for first downs to avoid the rush but also need good pass protection to give him time to stretch the field. Sadly the Griz do not open the play book like this anymore (like EWU). I don't think you can run at this d, so you have to win in the passing game. In my opinion you do that with quick screens, slants, and crosses to open them up. Then you start going over the top for deeper routes when the secondary cheats up. Then you might find some room in the running game. However if your d cannot stop their rushing attack or your line cannot hold off their rush then it will not work. And of course as always on the road you cannot turn the ball over. As I pointed out last year the Griz almost never win on the road if they lose the turnover battle.
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:clap: I hope our coaching staff understands this!
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oh they do......they will run the bubble screen for 6 times for a total of 10yds because the short passing game only worked in the first quarter and they will use the 3 and outs to give our offense a breather because they will be exhausted running the long pass plays once a series.
 
westnodak93bison said:
zengriz said:
...like you beat anyone...
...smackem' in the mouth...
...harder than they smack you...

... 8-) ...
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Not gonna happen. Griz are half west coast kids = soft
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I think Mr. Johnson will have a thing or two to say about that. As will Holmes and Takai. :geek:
 
Fans aren't giving the Griz defense much credit......key stats IMO will be ndsu's 3rd down conversion rate , turnovers, and TOP. If both these defenses show up and play at 100% this will be one of the best football games of the season. The only thing that concerns me is our horrible special teams play. That needs to get fixed if we are going to even have a chance at winning this thing. The one thing I hope for is that the officiating is good. No one wants crappy officials for what will be one hell of a game. Safe travels Montana Grizzlies and let's get er done :thumb:
 
westnodak93bison said:
zengriz said:
...like you beat anyone...
...smackem' in the mouth...
...harder than they smack you...

... 8-) ...
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Not gonna happen. Griz are half west coast kids = soft
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Half West Coast half Montana...which is better than you douchebags can say...what do you have a solid 3 kids from North Dakota this year?
 
mainly Minnesota/Wisconsin kids. However there is 6 ND starters.
Starters from North Dakota:
QB Wentz
T Lechler (by montana, beach)
T Plankers
LB Beck
LB Thorton
DT Schaetz
TE Illies
 
Robsnotes4u said:
No, in a study done over a lot of college games if a team is a 25 point underdog you have a 3.97% chance of winning. The Versus app gives you 4%.

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yCFB2akLh4s[/youtube]
Click to expand...


So, you are saying there IS a chance?
 
Lemme see...

Spray PAM on our uniforms
Chop blocks
Send receivers to dive at the knees of their DEs timed with the snap of the ball
Don't share game video tape
Ask to wear non-standard uniforms

What else am I missing????
 
The Griz must play well on all three phases of the game. They cannot afford to lose the turnover battle and special teams must execute to near perfection. The Griz cannot have any punts blocked or give up any big returns like they did against Central Wash. They must make any field goal attempts as well, even though I doubt they even try any considering our kickers. If the offense can make some big plays and sustain then finish some drives the Griz can pull off the upset with a little help from some solid defense.

Go Griz
 
Grisly Fan said:
Lemme see...

Spray PAM on our uniforms
Chop blocks
Send receivers to dive at the knees of their DEs timed with the snap of the ball
Don't share game video tape
Ask to wear non-standard uniforms

What else am I missing????
Click to expand...

Where's Alpha... :?:
 
1Griz_Fan said:
Grisly Fan said:
Lemme see...

Spray PAM on our uniforms
Chop blocks
Send receivers to dive at the knees of their DEs timed with the snap of the ball
Don't share game video tape
Ask to wear non-standard uniforms

What else am I missing????
Click to expand...

Where's Alpha... :?:
Click to expand...

He's a Bison Fan now
 
RayWill said:
1Griz_Fan said:
Grisly Fan said:
Lemme see...

Spray PAM on our uniforms
Chop blocks
Send receivers to dive at the knees of their DEs timed with the snap of the ball
Don't share game video tape
Ask to wear non-standard uniforms

What else am I missing????
Click to expand...

Where's Alpha... :?:
Click to expand...

He's a Bison Fan now
Click to expand...

Lol no, but he is currently in Fargo.
 
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