HelenaHandBasket
Well-known member
And I'd expect nothing but maroon colored glasses from you. I look at the projected 2 & 3 lines and don't think it matters this year.
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MBBALL The Seed for the BIG DANCE
- Thread starter LivingstonNative
- Start date
Don't be silly. Of course it matters. Will it equate to a win? Likely not, but to suggest it doesn't matter is crazy.
HelenaHandBasket
Well-known member
Big picture, it doesn't.
Whatever makes you happy, hhb.
HelenaHandBasket
Well-known member
This doesn't have any impact on my happiness. You?
The GRIZ dancin? Yeah, that makes me really happy, thanks.
What is fascinating, is that I don't think Lunardi does anything more than weight Net ranking and conference strength when comparing AQ teams.
Here is an example, here are 6 teams that are currently seeded around Montana. A smattering of 13-15 seeds, one of these is Montana.
Which team has the highest seeded placement in Lunardi's bracket? F.
Lowest A/D.
B,C,E are all 14 seeds. Most of their rankings are a product of their conferences relative strength.
A: Troy (15 seed)
B: UVU (14 seed)
C: Robert Morris (14 seed)
D: Montana (15 seed)
E: UNC-W (14 seed)
F: Yale (13 Seed)
Montana had three true opportunities during the non-conference to win some games against like-like on the road and lost all of them. They lost at St. Thomas (Summits top ranked Net team), at San Francisco (WCC's 4th ranked team in the net and at UNI (ranked 92nd and MVC's 4th ranked Net team). The Summit is ranked 16th, WCC is in the top 10 and the MVC is 10th. Instead of being ranked 140th in the NET, they'd be up where NC was if they'd had found a chance in any of those games to find a victory or two.
It is a bit absurd that Yale is ranked so high...but when you see the conference rankings...
Ivy 13th
WAC 15th
CAA 17th
Horizon 19th
Sun Belt 20th
Big Sky 21st
The tight rope that I think teams have to navigate, is the expected outcome (whether it be v. Q1 or Q4 games) versus the implied benefit when scheduling. In otherwords it is more of an economic argument. BSC teams don't lose anything by playing Q1 teams on the road and losing (typical power conference teams). I'd over the last decade BSC teams have lost 99% plus of those games. Where the BSC gets consistently hammered is they simply don't win quad two games in any venue. They were 1-44 (Montana had the only Quad 2 win that has stood up (at NC in February), and those are particulary in non-conference that help raise the collective conference ranking.
I would almost hazard a guess that the BSC play 85% + of its quad 2 games on the road all year. That means most of their winnable games at home are against 200+ ranked teams in the net ranking and games against lower division schools. Montana had 1 quad 2 game at home and that ended up being a quad 3 game (SDSU), and just two other quad 3 games at home all year (CSN in November, and NC in January).
Montana would likely benefit for playing more MWC and WCC programs (mostly because they were or have been generally better conferences), if they could get them in Missoula. That doesn't happen much, if ever:
- San Jose St (MWC) in 2023-24 and 2016-17
- Air Force (MWC) in 2021-22
- Wyoming (MWC) in 2016-17
- Pepperdine (WCC) in 2016-17
- BSU (MWC) in 2015-16 (a game that Leon Rice said they'd never play again)
- San Francisco (WCC) in 2015-16
So that means if you want to schedule up, you are going to go into hostile places and most of the time get bodied. Really for the conference to get better, they have to schedule Q2/Q3 games they can win. The BSC averaged 17 quad 4 games, Summit was 12-13, WAC was 12-15. Part of that is product of the bottom of the BSC conference, 8 of ten were Q4 teams when you faced them at home. That 200+ ranking would be helped if the whole conference would win more of the St Thomas, UVU, Seattle U type games on the road, and stop losing to teams like Oral Roberts or Denver at home or on the road.
Here is an example, here are 6 teams that are currently seeded around Montana. A smattering of 13-15 seeds, one of these is Montana.
| Team | Record | Q1/2 Rec | Quad 3 Record | Quad 4 Record |
| A | 21-10 | 2-4 | 5-3 | 14-3 |
| B | 22-7 | 0-4 | 9-2 | 13-1 |
| C | 25-8 | 2-1 | 9-4 | 14-3 |
| D | 22-9 | 1-6 | 4-3 | 17-0 |
| E | 25-7 | 0-1 | 8-3 | 17-3 |
| F | 19-7 | 2-2 | 4-3 | 13-2 |
Which team has the highest seeded placement in Lunardi's bracket? F.
Lowest A/D.
B,C,E are all 14 seeds. Most of their rankings are a product of their conferences relative strength.
A: Troy (15 seed)
B: UVU (14 seed)
C: Robert Morris (14 seed)
D: Montana (15 seed)
E: UNC-W (14 seed)
F: Yale (13 Seed)
Montana had three true opportunities during the non-conference to win some games against like-like on the road and lost all of them. They lost at St. Thomas (Summits top ranked Net team), at San Francisco (WCC's 4th ranked team in the net and at UNI (ranked 92nd and MVC's 4th ranked Net team). The Summit is ranked 16th, WCC is in the top 10 and the MVC is 10th. Instead of being ranked 140th in the NET, they'd be up where NC was if they'd had found a chance in any of those games to find a victory or two.
It is a bit absurd that Yale is ranked so high...but when you see the conference rankings...
Ivy 13th
WAC 15th
CAA 17th
Horizon 19th
Sun Belt 20th
Big Sky 21st
The tight rope that I think teams have to navigate, is the expected outcome (whether it be v. Q1 or Q4 games) versus the implied benefit when scheduling. In otherwords it is more of an economic argument. BSC teams don't lose anything by playing Q1 teams on the road and losing (typical power conference teams). I'd over the last decade BSC teams have lost 99% plus of those games. Where the BSC gets consistently hammered is they simply don't win quad two games in any venue. They were 1-44 (Montana had the only Quad 2 win that has stood up (at NC in February), and those are particulary in non-conference that help raise the collective conference ranking.
I would almost hazard a guess that the BSC play 85% + of its quad 2 games on the road all year. That means most of their winnable games at home are against 200+ ranked teams in the net ranking and games against lower division schools. Montana had 1 quad 2 game at home and that ended up being a quad 3 game (SDSU), and just two other quad 3 games at home all year (CSN in November, and NC in January).
Montana would likely benefit for playing more MWC and WCC programs (mostly because they were or have been generally better conferences), if they could get them in Missoula. That doesn't happen much, if ever:
- San Jose St (MWC) in 2023-24 and 2016-17
- Air Force (MWC) in 2021-22
- Wyoming (MWC) in 2016-17
- Pepperdine (WCC) in 2016-17
- BSU (MWC) in 2015-16 (a game that Leon Rice said they'd never play again)
- San Francisco (WCC) in 2015-16
So that means if you want to schedule up, you are going to go into hostile places and most of the time get bodied. Really for the conference to get better, they have to schedule Q2/Q3 games they can win. The BSC averaged 17 quad 4 games, Summit was 12-13, WAC was 12-15. Part of that is product of the bottom of the BSC conference, 8 of ten were Q4 teams when you faced them at home. That 200+ ranking would be helped if the whole conference would win more of the St Thomas, UVU, Seattle U type games on the road, and stop losing to teams like Oral Roberts or Denver at home or on the road.
Great info GF24 and you are correct about scheduling and winning Q2 games. I don’t wanna put the cart before the horse since our season is still going, but I’ll give everyone a sneak peek of our 25-26 schedule. I’ll release the full schedule tracker next week, but one big opportunity for the Griz next year is they host Northern Iowa in Missoula in November in a return game of a home and home. UNI bodied us in Cedar Falls this year and I believe they finished in the top 100 of the NET. If the Griz can get that win I believe it could be a very good Q2 win as UNI is always tough in the MVC and their NET ranking is always pulled up by the relative strength of Drake, Bradley and others. Point being, Big Sky teams need to win W2 games on their schedules.
HelenaHandBasket
Well-known member
I wasn't talking about them dancin', and I know you knew that.
Geez it sure would be nice to have GRIZ BB in a legit conference.
rocklobster
Well-known member
I think we'll be a 14. In the end, I think it'll be the last 15 games, and going 14-1 in that streak with only an OT loss on the road. Like someone said earlier, Lunardi doesn't pay a ton of time to the bottom seeds. He probably has some assistant that changed it.
GriznMN
Well-known member
James Fletcher has us as a 15 seed playing Texas Tech in San Fran https://www.on3.com/news/2025-ncaa-...ons-as-conference-tournaments-change-outlook/
Absolutely no worse than a 14th seed.
Games today that can help the Griz:
CUSA Championship
Liberty (27-6) vs. Jacksonville State (22-11) 6:30 on CBSSN. Liberty is projected as a 12 seed in most brackets. Jax State at one point was in first place in CUSA and was slotted as a 15. They went cold to end the regular season. Now having double digit losses, they would appear to be a shoe in for a 15 seed which could push the Griz up to a 14.
Ivy Semis
Yale (20-7) vs. Princeton (19-10) 9am on ESPNU. Yale is projected as a 13 seed and seems to be the consensus favorite in the Ivy. Princeton will be a tough out for them and I’m hopeful they pull it off.
CUSA Championship
Liberty (27-6) vs. Jacksonville State (22-11) 6:30 on CBSSN. Liberty is projected as a 12 seed in most brackets. Jax State at one point was in first place in CUSA and was slotted as a 15. They went cold to end the regular season. Now having double digit losses, they would appear to be a shoe in for a 15 seed which could push the Griz up to a 14.
Ivy Semis
Yale (20-7) vs. Princeton (19-10) 9am on ESPNU. Yale is projected as a 13 seed and seems to be the consensus favorite in the Ivy. Princeton will be a tough out for them and I’m hopeful they pull it off.
rocklobster
Well-known member
Damn! Yale eeks it out by 2. Princeton played awful and lived and died by the three the entire game and still almost pulled it off. Cornell and Dartmouth face off in the next semifinal. Hopefully one of them can rise to the occasion tomorrow.
Michigan State is a Final 4 team in my opinion. Not a good draw if that happens,
GriznMN
Well-known member
Just rewatched the Griz game versus Tennessee. The score was lopsided but it didn't look like the Griz were overmatched. It looked like the Griz transition defense and rebounding were lacking and we didn't shoot very well. Also, movement of the ball on offense was great but there was a lack of off-ball movement by the players, at times. It's very easy to defend a stationary player. IMO, when the Griz shoot at their usual FG 50%+, shoot 3PT at 45%+, have equal or better rebounding numbers, limit turnovers to 9 or fewer, and play great defense, the Griz have a good chance to win their first game in the NCAA Tournament.
