MBBALL The Seed for the BIG DANCE

[HelenaHandBasket]

How does the Ivy League tourney get completed prior to selection Sunday if their tourney doesn't start until Saturday?

A 4 team tourney only takes 2 days.

 

[Griz til I die]

How does the Ivy League tourney get completed prior to selection Sunday if their tourney doesn't start until Saturday?

The championship game is Sunday morning at like 10am and the selection show isn't on until like 4:30.

 

[AZGrizFan]

A 4 team tourney only takes 2 days.

Oh. Wasn't aware it was only the top 4 teams.

 

[Griz til I die]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1900580988507561994

NAU to the CBI. Looks like their weak ass, inflated non-conference schedule saved their bacon.

 

[LivingstonNative]

When I first did the work a few weeks ago there was clear divide between Montana and Northern Colorado. I'll just put this here rather than doing a new post on it.

Northern Colorado mostly because of Net Ranking was a high level 14 and close to 13. Lunardi had them rather consistently on the 14 line for the last few weeks.

Montana when they first appeared, in part of their mid 170's Net ranking was in the 15 range. Montana is now 144, probably puts them at the back end of the 14 line. Lunardi has the UM there this morning...

When you look at the Net Rankings of the 10-30 conferences and the AQ's:

Rank	Conference	Average Net	Conference Winner	Net	Team Rank
10	MVC	157	Drake	56	3 (12+)
11	American	160	Memphis	47	2 (12+)
12	Big West	185	UC-San Diego	35	1 (12+)
13	Ivy	201	Cornell	128	11 (15)
14	Southern	203	Wofford	131	12 (15)
15	WAC	211	Grand Canyon	92	7 (13)
16	Summit	214	Omaha	161	16 (14)
17	Coastal	214	UNC-Wilmington	102	10 (14)
18	Big South	217	High Point	82	6 (13)
19	Horizon	220	Robert Morris	140	13 (14)
20	Sun Belt	223	Troy	100	9 (14)
21	Big Sky	227	Montana	144	14 (15)
22	Southland	228	McNeese St	58	4 (12+)
23	MAAC	234	Merrimack	178	17 (16)
24	ASUN	239	Lipscomb	84	5 (13)
25	Amer. East	266	Bryant	150	15 (15)
26	Metro	266	Akron	97	8 (13)
27	Patriot	273	American	214	20 (Play In)
28	Ohio	280	SEMO	189	19 (Play In)
29	MEAC	297	Norfolk	185	18 (16)
30	Northeast	304	St. Francis	297	21 (Play In)
31	SWAC	312	Southern	224	22 (Play In)

BOLD: Have Automatic Bid, Italics: TBD Using top Net Ranking Team

This isn't an exact science but if you walk back the teams going worst to first, it puts Montana likely in that 14/15 line depending on some variables. They got some help.

As I posted on Twitter:
Here are the resume builders for Montana:
1. No quad 4 losses
2. Two quad 2 wins
3. 20+ wins against D1 opponents
4. Ranks 79th in WAB (apples to apples comparison)
5. 1 Loss since end of January.

I have Montana on the 15 line and I think that is conservative. They have got some help with Cornell and Wofford winning their prospective conference tournaments and don't have 20 Division 1 wins.

THX 24, I knew you would come up with some good stuff, even Wahlberg likes what you do on the basketball board.

 

[rocklobster]

THX 24, I knew you would come up with some good stuff, even Wahlberg likes what you do on the basketball board.

I just looked at Lunardi's updated brackets and he has Montana at a 15 vs Texas Tech. I think and hooe we'll get a 14.

 

[EverettGriz]

Lunardi is often wrong on his 13-15 lines.

 

[rocklobster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1900580988507561994

NAU to the CBI. Looks like their weak ass, inflated non-conference schedule saved their bacon.

You would think Portland State might get an invite

 

[Griz til I die]

I just looked at Lunardi's updated brackets and he has Montana at a 15 vs Texas Tech. I think and hooe we'll get a 14.

Crazy. He had us as a 14 yesterday and swapped us with Robert Morris. Wonder why he changed his mind.

 

[EverettGriz]

Crazy. He had us as a 14 yesterday and swapped us with Robert Morris. Wonder why he changed his mind

Honestly, I think this is as much effort he puts into selecting lower seeds from non power conferences:

 

[Griz til I die]

Let's compare the resumes of the Griz and Robert Morris:

Griz
NET: 141. Overall Record: 25-9. Conf: 15-3. Quad 1: 0-4. Quad 2: 1-2. Quad 3: 4-3. Quad 4: 17-0. WAB: 79 SOS: 188. SOR: 91. Conference NET: 21.

RMU
NET: 140. Overall Record: 26-8. Conf: 15-5. Quad 1: 0-1. Quad 2: 2-0. Quad 3: 9-4. Quad 4: 14-3. WAB: 97 SOS: 249. SOR: 103. Conference NET: 19.

That looks like a statistical tie to me. The question becomes what do they value more? Good wins or bad losses? RMU has a couple better wins than us but they also have worse losses than us. We have one less Q3 loss than them and we have zero Q4 losses while they have 3. Plus our strength of schedule is 60 spots higher than theirs. They only played one P5 game (W. Virginia) in which they lost by 28, and they also have a horrendously bad non-conf loss to Delaware who finished 13th in the CAA. Plus they lost to Detroit Mercy in conference play which is just laughable. The Griz have 2 total losses this year from teams ranked worse than them in the NET, both of which were road games and against Q3 opponents. It's pretty close and maybe I'm bias but I think we're worthy of the last 14 seed over them.

 

[EverettGriz]

I think two things will really strengthen UM in the eyes of the committee:

1. The fact that we are #2 in the entire nation in FG% has to open a few eyes.
2. The fact that we're 14-1 in our last 15, and have lost only one game since mid January.

 

[Griz til I die]

I think two things will really strengthen UM in the eyes of the committee:

1. The fact that we are #2 in the entire nation in FG% has to open a few eyes.
2. The fact that we're 14-1 in our last 15, and have lost only one game since mid January.

I just don't understand why Lunardi would drop us behind RMU when neither team played yesterday. Why not just leave them where you had them yesterday? Why change it?

 

[HelenaHandBasket]

I just don't understand why Lunardi would drop us behind RMU when neither team played yesterday. Why not just leave them where you had them yesterday? Why change it?

Seeding is fluid because the NET etc are fluid. Based on the numbers you posted, I don't have an issue with RMU being seeded better than the Griz in the current projection.

 

[Griz til I die]

Seeding is fluid because the NET etc are fluid. Based on the numbers you posted, I don't have an issue with RMU being seeded better than the Griz in the current projection.

And that's fair but all I'm saying is we've been behind them in the NET all week and yesterday we were 4 spots behind them and now we're only 1 spot behind them. So then why wouldn't he have had RMU over us in the first place and now all of a sudden does put them ahead despite the fact we're catching ground on them?

 

[HelenaHandBasket]

Does it really matter if they are a 14 or 15?

 

[Griz til I die]

Does it really matter if they are a 14 or 15?

Ya it kind of does. I think your odds of being competitive are much better at 14 then they are at 15. If you get to a 14 then you can potentially avoid the SEC and make life easier. Don't act like it can't make a difference.

 

[HelenaHandBasket]

Ya it kind of does. I think your odds of being competitive are much better at 14 then they are at 15. If you get to a 14 then you can potentially avoid the SEC and make life easier. Don't act like it can't make a difference.

IMO it doesn't matter.

 

[Griz til I die]

IMO it doesn't matter.

And I'd expect nothing less from you

 

[Jaredkuehn]

IMO it doesn't matter.

Historically 14 seeds are twice as likely to win in the first round than 15 seeds. A 14 vs 15 seed doesn't change who the Griz are, but the gap between 1-2 seeds and the rest of the field can be considerable. The closer you can get to the middle of the bracket, the better.