MBBALL The Seed for the BIG DANCE

[Brother Bear]

Here's how the Griz can get to a 13 seed:

1. WAC. Neither Utah Valley or Grand Canyon can win the WAC. The WAC has been very similar to the Big Sky in terms of there's 2 teams that have separated themselves from the pack, and everyone else has been chasing them. I think Cal Baptist would be the biggest threat to those 2, but it's unlikely they'll do it. We're big Cal Baptist fans the next 3 days.

2. Ivy League. Anyone but Yale. The rest of the Ivy League has double digit losses and the only other team that can get to 20 wins is Princeton. The Ivy tournament starts Saturday. Yale plays Dartmouth and Princeton plays Cornell. Any of those other 3 teams winning the Ivy is good news for the Griz.

3. MAC. The favorite in the MAC is Akron. Currently they're winning their quarterfinal game against Bowling Green. Ideally the Griz would need Akron and Miami Ohio to both go down. Anyone from Kent State and down would be great.

These are the 3 most important tournaments IMO. The Big West will be another one to keep an eye on but I find it unlikely UC San Diego is gonna go down.

Thanks for putting this together!

 

[Grizfan-24]

When I first did the work a few weeks ago there was clear divide between Montana and Northern Colorado. I'll just put this here rather than doing a new post on it.

Northern Colorado mostly because of Net Ranking was a high level 14 and close to 13. Lunardi had them rather consistently on the 14 line for the last few weeks.

Montana when they first appeared, in part of their mid 170's Net ranking was in the 15 range. Montana is now 144, probably puts them at the back end of the 14 line. Lunardi has the UM there this morning...

When you look at the Net Rankings of the 10-30 conferences and the AQ's:

Rank	Conference	Average Net	Conference Winner	Net	Team Rank
10	MVC	157	Drake	56	3 (12+)
11	American	160	Memphis	47	2 (12+)
12	Big West	185	UC-San Diego	35	1 (12+)
13	Ivy	201	Yale	71	5 (15)
14	Southern	203	Wofford	131	12 (15)
15	WAC	211	Grand Canyon	92	8 (13)
16	Summit	214	Omaha	161	16 (14)
17	Coastal	214	UNC-Wilmington	102	11 (14)
18	Big South	217	High Point	82	7 (13)
19	Horizon	220	Robert Morris	140	13 (14)
20	Sun Belt	223	Troy	100	10 (14)
21	Big Sky	227	Montana	144	14 (15)
22	Southland	228	McNeese St	58	4 (12+)
23	MAAC	234	Merrimack	178	17 (16)
24	ASUN	239	Lipscomb	84	6 (13)
25	Amer. East	266	Bryant	150	15 (15)
26	Metro	266	Akron	97	9 (13)
27	Patriot	273	American	214	20 (Play In)
28	Ohio	280	SEMO	189	19 (Play In)
29	MEAC	297	Norfolk	185	18 (16)
30	Northeast	304	St. Francis	297	21 (Play In)
31	SWAC	312	Southern	224	22 (Play In)

BOLD: Have Automatic Bid, Italics: TBD Using top Net Ranking Team

This isn't an exact science but if you walk back the teams going worst to first, it puts Montana likely in that 14/15 line depending on some variables. They got some help.

As I posted on Twitter:
Here are the resume builders for Montana:
1. No quad 4 losses
2. Two quad 2 wins
3. 20+ wins against D1 opponents
4. Ranks 79th in WAB (apples to apples comparison)
5. 1 Loss since end of January.

I have Montana on the 15 line and I think that is conservative. They have got some help with Cornell and Wofford winning their prospective conference tournaments and don't have 20 Division 1 wins.

 

[Griz til I die]

When I first did the work a few weeks ago there was clear divide between Montana and Northern Colorado. I'll just put this here rather than doing a new post on it.

Northern Colorado mostly because of Net Ranking was a high level 14 and close to 13. Lunardi had them rather consistently on the 14 line for the last few weeks.

Montana when they first appeared, in part of their mid 170's Net ranking was in the 15 range. Montana is now 144, probably puts them at the back end of the 14 line. Lunardi has the UM there this morning...

When you look at the Net Rankings of the 10-30 conferences and the AQ's:

Rank	Conference	Average Net	Conference Winner	Net	Team Rank
10	MVC	157	Drake	56	3 (12+)
11	American	160	Memphis	47	2 (12+)
12	Big West	185	UC-San Diego	35	1 (12+)
13	Ivy	201	Cornell	128	11 (15)
14	Southern	203	Wofford	131	12 (15)
15	WAC	211	Grand Canyon	92	7 (13)
16	Summit	214	Omaha	161	16 (14)
17	Coastal	214	UNC-Wilmington	102	10 (14)
18	Big South	217	High Point	82	6 (13)
19	Horizon	220	Robert Morris	140	13 (14)
20	Sun Belt	223	Troy	100	9 (14)
21	Big Sky	227	Montana	144	14 (15)
22	Southland	228	McNeese St	58	4 (12+)
23	MAAC	234	Merrimack	178	17 (16)
24	ASUN	239	Lipscomb	84	5 (13)
25	Amer. East	266	Bryant	150	15 (15)
26	Metro	266	Akron	97	8 (13)
27	Patriot	273	American	214	20 (Play In)
28	Ohio	280	SEMO	189	19 (Play In)
29	MEAC	297	Norfolk	185	18 (16)
30	Northeast	304	St. Francis	297	21 (Play In)
31	SWAC	312	Southern	224	22 (Play In)

BOLD: Have Automatic Bid, Italics: TBD Using top Net Ranking Team

This isn't an exact science but if you walk back the teams going worst to first, it puts Montana likely in that 14/15 line depending on some variables. They got some help.

As I posted on Twitter:
Here are the resume builders for Montana:
1. No quad 4 losses
2. Two quad 2 wins
3. 20+ wins against D1 opponents
4. Ranks 79th in WAB (apples to apples comparison)
5. 1 Loss since end of January.

I have Montana on the 15 line and I think that is conservative. They have got some help with Cornell and Wofford winning their prospective conference tournaments and don't have 20 Division 1 wins.

I think we're safe on the 14. Look at the teams on the 15. The Griz have a far superior resume to them. (Bryant, Robert Morris, Wofford, Omaha).

 

[Jaredkuehn]

I'd be happy with a 14. While beating a 3 seed is a huge challenge, that 14 line is where I start to get hopeful about being competitive. The 15 and 16 lines are just so much to overcome. I'm afraid they are going to find a way to put Montana at 15, but hoping Lunardi has it right, and hoping for help from other conference tournaments.

 

[Griz til I die]

Mike Decourcy of Fox Sports also has the Griz as a 14 playing Wisconsin. Now that would be my preferred matchup.

 

[Jaredkuehn]

Mike Decourcy of Fox Sports also has the Griz as a 14 playing Wisconsin. Now that would be my preferred matchup.

I cringed when I saw "Wisconsin". I have no idea what their team looks like this year, but I must still have PTSD from the butt-whooping they put on Will Cherry's tournament team!

 

[Grizfan-24]

I think we're safe on the 14. Look at the teams on the 15. The Griz have a far superior resume to them. (Bryant, Robert Morris, Wofford, Omaha).

I agree. I think the resume is there. I just don't necessarily trust where the BSC sits in the perceptive realm of NCAA basketball.

 

[rocklobster]

I agree. I think the resume is there. I just don't necessarily trust where the BSC sits in the perceptive realm of NCAA basketball.

Yeah, the BSC wasn't the strongest this year. However, I will say, the two top teams were far and away the strongest. The blowout losses to Oregon and Tennessee didn't help, but they did play well at Utah State and San Fran. This team has constantly improved as the season has gone on, and although the first round matchup-probably a 14/3-will be a surmountable feat, they're certainly stronger team wise. Other than the OT loss to PSU, there are no blemishes to their record. Exciting time for the team, whatever the case. Go Griz!!

 

[Griz til I die]

14-0 in quad 4 games helps as well. Too many of those can be a stain on your resume and the fact that the Griz didn't even have one is actually quite impressive.

 

[garizzalies]

Duke.

 

[hilinegrizfan]

They looked pretty damn good last night, that's for sure. what was the field goal %? like 75%?

 

[mousegriz1]

Right now ESPN has us at the 14 seed playing Kentucky which is about what I would expect.

HOWEVER, I wouldn't be surprised if the committee somehow figured out a way to match us up with Michigan again.

Maybe Michigan after they beat Kentucky?

 

[zoo guy]

They say, seed/rank/rating does not matter. You have to play the good teams eventually. The good teams move on. Others, go home and watch on tv. You can't get away from, not playing good teams. That's the beauty of it ! I say bring it on. Line 'em up and give it your best. Go Griz Go !

 

[MissoulaMarinerFan]

Maybe Michigan after they beat Kentucky?

Not effing Michigan....again.

 

[MantanaGrizzly]

Mike Decourcy of Fox Sports also has the Griz as a 14 playing Wisconsin. Now that would be my preferred matchup.

We owe them one

 

[BWahlberg]

Lends back to a text thread I had with a friend (and former hoops player) of DeCuire's preference in OOC booking - wanting a handful of tough road games against higher tier teams that builds skill against bigger/better programs, but results in losses vs booking a few more winnable games that could add a couple more W's.

We all know Trav's MO of late is book a tough ass OOC on the road and battle test these guys. Looking at The Griz this year they went 10-6 with losses to Oregon, Tennessee, St Thomas, UNI, San Fran, & Utah State.

Oregon - in
Tennessee - in
Utah State - bubble
St Thomas - out / lost to Omaha (who is proj as a 15 seed)
San Francisco - out but did win 24 games
UNI - out, won 20 games

No real "bad" losses, all pretty quality teams, I'd assume the 3-4 that don't go dancing all save maybe UNI will be in some post season tourney. Hindsight is always 20:20 but what if they dropped a few of these road loss games in favor of a home game or a more winnable road game in a peer conference? RPI goes down but the Griz maybe move from 25-9 to something like 27-7, 28-6, or 29-5.

@Grizfan-24 you'd know better than me, would that move the needle and create better odds for a 12 or 13 seed?

 

[MantanaGrizzly]

Not effing Michigan....again.

I was dating a girl in 2018 from Detroit metro area. Her family bleeds blue and are die hards. The first half watching the game was great. Feeling good, only down 3 at half.
Then the wheels fell off on Offense in the second half.

One of the best defensive games from any Griz team I’ve been alive for. Lost to the eventual runners up. Moral of the story, fuck Michigan please anybody but them again.

 

[HikeGlacier]

Lends back to a text thread I had with a friend (and former hoops player) of DeCuire's preference in OOC booking - wanting a handful of tough road games against higher tier teams that builds skill against bigger/better programs, but results in losses vs booking a few more winnable games that could add a couple more W's.

We all know Trav's MO of late is book a tough ass OOC on the road and battle test these guys. Looking at The Griz this year they went 10-6 with losses to Oregon, Tennessee, St Thomas, UNI, San Fran, & Utah State.

Oregon - in
Tennessee - in
Utah State - bubble
St Thomas - out / lost to Omaha (who is proj as a 15 seed)
San Francisco - out but did win 24 games
UNI - out, won 20 games

No real "bad" losses, all pretty quality teams, I'd assume the 3-4 that don't go dancing all save maybe UNI will be in some post season tourney. Hindsight is always 20:20 but what if they dropped a few of these road loss games in favor of a home game or a more winnable road game in a peer conference? RPI goes down but the Griz maybe move from 25-9 to something like 27-7, 28-6, or 29-5.

@Grizfan-24 you'd know better than me, would that move the needle and create better odds for a 12 or 13 seed?

He gets paid more money to schedule these teams.

 

[AZGrizFan]

2. Ivy League. Anyone but Yale. The rest of the Ivy League has double digit losses and the only other team that can get to 20 wins is Princeton. The Ivy tournament starts Saturday. Yale plays Dartmouth and Princeton plays Cornell. Any of those other 3 teams winning the Ivy is good news for the Griz.

How does the Ivy League tourney get completed prior to selection Sunday if their tourney doesn't start until Saturday?

 

[HelenaHandBasket]

Lends back to a text thread I had with a friend (and former hoops player) of DeCuire's preference in OOC booking - wanting a handful of tough road games against higher tier teams that builds skill against bigger/better programs, but results in losses vs booking a few more winnable games that could add a couple more W's.

We all know Trav's MO of late is book a tough ass OOC on the road and battle test these guys. Looking at The Griz this year they went 10-6 with losses to Oregon, Tennessee, St Thomas, UNI, San Fran, & Utah State.

Oregon - in
Tennessee - in
Utah State - bubble
St Thomas - out / lost to Omaha (who is proj as a 15 seed)
San Francisco - out but did win 24 games
UNI - out, won 20 games

No real "bad" losses, all pretty quality teams, I'd assume the 3-4 that don't go dancing all save maybe UNI will be in some post season tourney. Hindsight is always 20:20 but what if they dropped a few of these road loss games in favor of a home game or a more winnable road game in a peer conference? RPI goes down but the Griz maybe move from 25-9 to something like 27-7, 28-6, or 29-5.

@Grizfan-24 you'd know better than me, would that move the needle and create better odds for a 12 or 13 seed?

St Thomas was out no matter, they are in transition.