I've been thinking about/working on some sort of summary before fall camp got underway which would address my own personal beliefs of what we could look at that could make or break the 2013 reason for the Griz. Next week we will start to see some of these possibilities take shape as the team returns to the field.
Lets start on what I see are the 5 biggest reasons against 2013 being a successful season.
1. Coaching experience. Lets face it in 2012 we saw a lot of coaching errors. The coaches this spring/summer have even been saying it themselves - they need to be better this year. It would appear that this year the staff will benefit from everyone being "on-board" rather than last year's (*cough* Burtnett *cough*). This year's staff will feature a DC in just his 2nd year on the job, co-OCs that have never been OCs at this level, and a lot of assistants that are brand new to being position coaches. Does this coaching staff have the experience to mitigate and manage challenges, make adjustments, properly motivate the team, and work together as a cohesive unit? Only time will tell.
2. The defensive secondary. I could sugar coat the hell out of this saying every guy that's back should be more experienced, have been practicing against JJ, have a better/attentive position coach at safety, were hurt last year, were new last year, etc - but that's all just excuses. The defensive secondary needs to prove last year was the exception and not the rule for this group of guys. The Griz allowed an average of 300 passing yards per game, one of the worst in all of the FCS. If this group isn't dramatically improved they could off-set how talented our front 7 is.
3. Lack of experience in the passing game. So besides Ellis Henderson and Cam Warren to some extent we've got a corps of WRs and TEs that have very little experience as the main targets. The Griz should have a solid running game, a great O-line, and a QB that will be a difference maker. But... who will catch the ball? There's a big field of guys ripe with potential but limited in experience. Can our passing game ramp up this quickly? NCAA be damned, the 5 (vacated) wins we saw late in 2011 were because the passing game came together in tandem with the running game. With no passing game, will our running attack just be a repeat of last years? Good, but not good enough to win close games?
4. The kicking game. Lider is inconsistent but powerful. Greenberg is more accurate but less powerful. Takai's short snaps have been all over the place. Warren as a holder has been ok, but challenging with the issues of snaps, etc. Also the blocking line for the kicking team has given up far too many blocks. This all has the recipe for disaster. If the Griz need a late-game winner from 40 yards out, how confident do you feel right now they'll hit that? I really hope the kicking unit has been practicing their butts off this summer.
5. Health in some key spots. Ask MSU how good they're feeling about their linebacker corps right now. Health is a concern every team has and in many cases something they can't entirely plan for. Freak injuries happen, its part of the game. I just look at some key spots on the team, LB, QB, and to a lesser extent RB and wonder how damaging a few key losses right there could be.
OK, done with Debbie Downer. Lets flip the coin and look at five reasons for a successful 2013 season.
1. The return of Jordan Johnson. With all due respects to Trent McKinney who did look improved in the spring. JJ's return brings a dual threat that can hit most passes either in the pocket or on the run. He can run the ball well too so defenses will have to stay honest. He is great with zone-read too. He's also a guy the team rallies around, he's a leader on and off the field. This is the kind of QB that a team needs for a successful year - which is really exciting to see.
2. The O-line. Look at the experience across our O-line. Trevor Poole rotated in 2011, started for most of 2012. Will Poehls rotated in 2010/11, started in 2012. Kjebly Oiland started in 2012. Jordan Hines rotated in 2012. Danny Kistler rotated in 2010, started in 2011 and 2012. We've got 3 seniors on the line and 2 juniors. We've got experienced depth allowing these guys to rest up during games as well. The starting 5 will average just about 6-6 and 305 pounds. That's quite the group to plow the road.
3. The defensive front 7. Cat fans are already sick of hearing about our front 7, ha. Going into this season, it's THE BEST in the Big Sky... maybe even the FCS. We have one of the best outside linebackers in Jordan Tripp. A workhorse of a mike-backer in Coyle, and maybe one of the more under-rated outside linebackers in the league in Kanongata'a - not to even add in the depth of Kose, Owen, and Van Ackeren. We have a tandem of athletic freaks in defensive ends with Holmes and Wagenmann, and 3 (possibly 4 with Rehm) defensive tackles that would start for just about any other Big Sky team. Linebacker experience in the depth is a bit of a concern but the talent isn't. This group is also loaded with experience and senior leadership.
4. A stable of running backs. Jordan Canada will not have to shoulder the load which is probably good, he can stay healthy through the season. TraVon Van is a combo of something we don't see often at our level, size AND speed. Counts is going to make a huge impact as a burly and powerful back that can plow through guys or outrun them. Treshawn Favors could be a surprise player as a freshman if he can adjust to this level quickly. Jamal Wilson and Gavin Hagfors will not just be blockers but will have roles in the running game. And I keep saying it but watch for Marlon Miles as a scat-back, the dude is hopefully going to take some screens/check downs for big yards.
5. Unity. The NCAA has spoken, the DOJ/DOE is done, there is no sudden transition of a new coach this year, we've got the same head coach in place now. The team is together as a single unit. Last year it was pretty easy to unravel after the continual storm of bad news that hit. That should have just steeled the resolve of this year's team. This season the team will have an opportunity to avenge 5 of their 6 losses last season (all but the SUU loss). What I would project the 5 hardest games of the season (App, CPSLO, EWU, Sac, & MSU) we have 3 at home. Griz Nation is chomping at the bit for the team to return and to cheer on a return to our winning ways. There's so much lining up that give hope to excellent motivating causes to a successful there.
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There you have it! That's my thoughts. On to fall camp, GO GRIZ!
Lets start on what I see are the 5 biggest reasons against 2013 being a successful season.
1. Coaching experience. Lets face it in 2012 we saw a lot of coaching errors. The coaches this spring/summer have even been saying it themselves - they need to be better this year. It would appear that this year the staff will benefit from everyone being "on-board" rather than last year's (*cough* Burtnett *cough*). This year's staff will feature a DC in just his 2nd year on the job, co-OCs that have never been OCs at this level, and a lot of assistants that are brand new to being position coaches. Does this coaching staff have the experience to mitigate and manage challenges, make adjustments, properly motivate the team, and work together as a cohesive unit? Only time will tell.
2. The defensive secondary. I could sugar coat the hell out of this saying every guy that's back should be more experienced, have been practicing against JJ, have a better/attentive position coach at safety, were hurt last year, were new last year, etc - but that's all just excuses. The defensive secondary needs to prove last year was the exception and not the rule for this group of guys. The Griz allowed an average of 300 passing yards per game, one of the worst in all of the FCS. If this group isn't dramatically improved they could off-set how talented our front 7 is.
3. Lack of experience in the passing game. So besides Ellis Henderson and Cam Warren to some extent we've got a corps of WRs and TEs that have very little experience as the main targets. The Griz should have a solid running game, a great O-line, and a QB that will be a difference maker. But... who will catch the ball? There's a big field of guys ripe with potential but limited in experience. Can our passing game ramp up this quickly? NCAA be damned, the 5 (vacated) wins we saw late in 2011 were because the passing game came together in tandem with the running game. With no passing game, will our running attack just be a repeat of last years? Good, but not good enough to win close games?
4. The kicking game. Lider is inconsistent but powerful. Greenberg is more accurate but less powerful. Takai's short snaps have been all over the place. Warren as a holder has been ok, but challenging with the issues of snaps, etc. Also the blocking line for the kicking team has given up far too many blocks. This all has the recipe for disaster. If the Griz need a late-game winner from 40 yards out, how confident do you feel right now they'll hit that? I really hope the kicking unit has been practicing their butts off this summer.
5. Health in some key spots. Ask MSU how good they're feeling about their linebacker corps right now. Health is a concern every team has and in many cases something they can't entirely plan for. Freak injuries happen, its part of the game. I just look at some key spots on the team, LB, QB, and to a lesser extent RB and wonder how damaging a few key losses right there could be.
OK, done with Debbie Downer. Lets flip the coin and look at five reasons for a successful 2013 season.
1. The return of Jordan Johnson. With all due respects to Trent McKinney who did look improved in the spring. JJ's return brings a dual threat that can hit most passes either in the pocket or on the run. He can run the ball well too so defenses will have to stay honest. He is great with zone-read too. He's also a guy the team rallies around, he's a leader on and off the field. This is the kind of QB that a team needs for a successful year - which is really exciting to see.
2. The O-line. Look at the experience across our O-line. Trevor Poole rotated in 2011, started for most of 2012. Will Poehls rotated in 2010/11, started in 2012. Kjebly Oiland started in 2012. Jordan Hines rotated in 2012. Danny Kistler rotated in 2010, started in 2011 and 2012. We've got 3 seniors on the line and 2 juniors. We've got experienced depth allowing these guys to rest up during games as well. The starting 5 will average just about 6-6 and 305 pounds. That's quite the group to plow the road.
3. The defensive front 7. Cat fans are already sick of hearing about our front 7, ha. Going into this season, it's THE BEST in the Big Sky... maybe even the FCS. We have one of the best outside linebackers in Jordan Tripp. A workhorse of a mike-backer in Coyle, and maybe one of the more under-rated outside linebackers in the league in Kanongata'a - not to even add in the depth of Kose, Owen, and Van Ackeren. We have a tandem of athletic freaks in defensive ends with Holmes and Wagenmann, and 3 (possibly 4 with Rehm) defensive tackles that would start for just about any other Big Sky team. Linebacker experience in the depth is a bit of a concern but the talent isn't. This group is also loaded with experience and senior leadership.
4. A stable of running backs. Jordan Canada will not have to shoulder the load which is probably good, he can stay healthy through the season. TraVon Van is a combo of something we don't see often at our level, size AND speed. Counts is going to make a huge impact as a burly and powerful back that can plow through guys or outrun them. Treshawn Favors could be a surprise player as a freshman if he can adjust to this level quickly. Jamal Wilson and Gavin Hagfors will not just be blockers but will have roles in the running game. And I keep saying it but watch for Marlon Miles as a scat-back, the dude is hopefully going to take some screens/check downs for big yards.
5. Unity. The NCAA has spoken, the DOJ/DOE is done, there is no sudden transition of a new coach this year, we've got the same head coach in place now. The team is together as a single unit. Last year it was pretty easy to unravel after the continual storm of bad news that hit. That should have just steeled the resolve of this year's team. This season the team will have an opportunity to avenge 5 of their 6 losses last season (all but the SUU loss). What I would project the 5 hardest games of the season (App, CPSLO, EWU, Sac, & MSU) we have 3 at home. Griz Nation is chomping at the bit for the team to return and to cheer on a return to our winning ways. There's so much lining up that give hope to excellent motivating causes to a successful there.
------------
There you have it! That's my thoughts. On to fall camp, GO GRIZ!
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