Edit: Update, well I had this mostly written out and only about 35% saved when I had my browser refresh the page. I lost most of my report and I'm trying to piece it back together inbetween meetings here. This message starts out as I was writing it yesterday, I've obviously already been to the Oregon v Stanford game. Quick side note, Wa Griz is louder than Stanford Stadium, and the Grizzly game day experiene is much better. The game was fun/incredible for sure but for many reasons, give me a Saturday in Wa Griz over a game in Stanford Stadium.
Original report:
Writing this from the Hotel Palomar in San Francisco, I'm here for the year-end Realtors convention. Today is a bit of an off-day, but in a few hours I'm hopping a train and headed to Palo Alto to catch Stanford vs Oregon. Should be fun. I'm typing this up on my tablet so it's going to be a little shorter than most scouting reports.
The Griz are back to their winning ways, albeit a very tense win last week, they have improved to 7-2 and probably need just 2 more wins in the next 3 games to be a lock for the playoffs. There's still a tiny glimmer of hope for a share of a conference title as NAU, EWU, and MSU all have at least 2 conference games left (at least) but it's quite the long shot. The Griz would need NAU to drop at least one game against an inferior opponent, EWU to lose two, MSU to lose two (one being to UM). And even then NAU or EWU would hold the auto-bid tie breaker, but the Griz would still be recognized as getting a share. I've seen stranger things, but that's out of this team's control, what they're presumably focused on this week are the Yotes, who will pose a formidable challenge on the road.
South Dakota Coyotes - 4-5
10-7 win vs UC Davis - Neither teams had good showings on offense, USD about 270 yards of offense, UCD about 280. USD was up 10-0 and Davis scored late to make it close. USD closed out the game after the David touchdown by picking up a handful of first downs and they ran the clock out.
31-14 loss vs Kansas - It was a tight first half, KU went into the half up just 14-7, but then put the game away in the 3rd and early 4th adding 10 more points and getting up 24-7, USD scored again and KU answered that with another TD late. KU ran for 285 yards, however I see USD had some good yardage on the ground too, 220.
22-16 loss vs NAU - Not as close as the score suggests, at least for most of the game. NAU controlled the game for 3 quarters, up 19-0 at the end of the 3rd and 22-3 into the 4th. USD mounted a comeback attempt that fell short, they scored 16 4th qtr points (2 TDs, 1 field goal, 1 failed 2-pt attempt). USD's comeback attempt ended after a failed on-sides kick and NAU ran out the clock. Zach Bauman had a great game, 150 rushing yards.
24-10 loss vs W. Illinois - Another game that was more of a defensive struggle, just 250 yards on offense for USD, 330 for WIU. USD made it interesting in the 4th when they scored a TD making it 17-10 with 8 minutes to go but WIU scored again and in USD's final 3 possessions they had a turnover on downs, lost a fumble, and wound up punting (but then didn't get the ball back)
17-14 win vs Missouri State - USD had to come back to win this game. In what appears to be common place for them there was not a lot of yards on either side of the ball, 180 for MSU, 275 for USD. It was 14-6 late in the 3rd after MSU blocked a punt and took it in for a TD. USD scored early in the 4th and picked up the 2 point conversion to tie it. On their next possession they missed a fieldgoal, but then on the following possession with just about 1:30 left in the game they hit a 41 yd fieldgoal to win it.
17-14 win vs Indiana State - Yep, same score as the week before. And it was another comeback, USD was trailing 14-7 at the half, made it 14-10 in the 3rd and scored a TD in the 4th to grab the lead. Their running game found some traction and had over 200 yards, while their defense held ISU to 198 yards. USD probably could have won by more but they lost 4 turnovers in the game.
38-31 win vs Northern Iowa - This one caught some attention as USD beat UNI was (at that point) in the top 10. I recall reading UNI has been devastated with injuries this year and were a shell of the team they were expected to be, however this was a huge win for the Yotes. It was a double OT win where USD mounted yet another come from behind win. They were down 28-7 late in the 3rd quarter and scored 21 unanswered points, with their last TD coming with 5 seconds left in the game to send it to OT. Both teams kicked a fieldgoal in the 1st OT. USD scored a TD in the 2OT and they stopped UNI on 4th and goal at the 7 to win it. It was a wild game, USD for the first time in any of their games had big passing numbers, 370 total passing yards, UNI was very balanced, 210 rushing, 235 passing. UNI's undoing was 3 costly interceptions that killed drives (but USD did not score on any of the following series off turnovers).
28-14 loss vs Illinois State - USD had another solid passing day, 250 in the air, and they actually out-gaine ILS 375 total yards to 285 total yards. Both teams had 3 turnovers. ILS scored on 4 bigger plays and did nothing other than that. USD tossed two interceptions on their last two drives.
38-34 loss to Youngstown State - This loss buried the dagger in USD's playoff hopes, playing top 10 Youngstown State. I count 10 lead changes in this game that was obviously back and forth the whole time. YSU piled up 520 total yards of offense on a balanced attack, while USD had 390 and was also fairly balanced. So what kept USD in this game? Fumbles. YSU lost 3 fumbles and USD scored 17 points directly off those turnovers to stay in the game. USD even held a 34-31 lead with 2 minutes left in the game, but YSU put together a game-winning drive and scored the go-ahead TD with just 15 seconds left in the game.
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Players to watch
#14 Kevin Earl - QB. A big guy at 6-6, he's a passing QB who I believe has started the last 5 games. his average is about 190 per game but don't let that fool you, in the last 3 games he's been at or over 250 yards each time. Also look for a few plays from #7 Josh Vander Maten who is a mobile/scrambling QB. He's got some passing stats, good rushing stats, and even receiving stats.
#21 Trevor Bouma - RB. A 5-9, 215 bruiser of a running back, leads the team with 620 yards and 2 TDs. Also 4th in total receptions as well. Look for #23 Jordan Roberts to run a lot as well, he's also 5-9 and 215, only a few receptions, about 300 yards on the year and 2 TDs.
#6 Terry Terrance, WR. A 5-9 guy that leads the team by a good margin in receptions, he's got 317 yards and 2 TDs. There's also #84 Riley Donavan who is a 6-1 WR and had a team high 440 yards and 2 TDs.
#15 Tyler Wilhem, TE. Interesting match up for the Griz, a big (6-4) pass catching TE that's got 250 yards this year.
#2 Devin Taverna, DB. A taller guy at 6-2, he leads the team in tackles with 62, he's got 1 INT and 2 forced fumbles.
#11 Tyler Starr, OLB. I recall Greg Rachac with the Gazette labeling Starr as the best OLB in the nation with pro potential written all over him. 53 tackles, 8 sacks, 4 forced fumbles, 14.5 TFLs. Yeah... I'd say so.
General Stats
- USD is scoring 19 points per game and allowing 23 points per game. The Griz are scoring 39 points per game and allowing 23 points per game.
- USD is a 4th quarter team, of the 170 points they've scored this year a whopping 79 points have been scored in the 4th. Meanwhile that's been the Grizzly strength, they've only allowed 34 points in the 4th qtr this whole year, and as we all know a lot of that came in the Sac game.
- UM is +12 in turnovers, USD is +2
- USD's defense will be statistically one of the best we've faced. They'd rank 3rd in the Big Sky behind only SUU and MSU and better than Cal Poly.
- USD scores TDs just 55% of the time when in the red zone and their D allows TDs 70% of the time. UM scores TDs 68% of the time when in the RZ and allows TDs 53% of the time.
- USD's punt coverage looks suspect, allowing an average of 11 yards per return
- Both UM and USD share a dubious stat, their defenses allow more 3rd down conversions than their offense picks up 3rd downs. UM's ratio is 42% conversion on O and 44% allowed on D. USD's is 33% on offense and 34% on defense.
- USD has had some kicking issues this year is 8-16 kicking.
- USD is 3-1 at home, they suffered their first home loss this last weekend.
- Opposing teams seem to run the ball well against USD, they average allowing 180 yards per game on the groud.
Keys to a Grizzly Victory
- Stop the run. USD is a balanced offense but keeping their ground game in check will be huge for the Griz. Our front 7 has to be pissed this week and will hopefully want to just smash these guys. They're not a quick/fast/skill running back corps but a power back system. No arm tackles, drive the guys back.
- Get the points. A lot of signs point to this game being low scoring, USD's defense is incredibly good. 3 points here or there could decide the game. As a point of reference last night Oregon forwent 2 fieldgoal attempts early in the game, both times they came out of the redzone with no points. They lost the game by 6, and that takes into account a failed 2 point conversion.
- Big Boy Football. I'm feeling inspired after watching the Stanford O-line dominate like they did last night. If our O-line wins in the trenches and helps Canada and Nguyen (and Van?) get loose then the Griz will be sitting pretty.
- Win the turnover battle. USD makes mistakes, their QB has 7 TDs and 6 INTs. They've got quite a few fumbles too. Our defense excels at turnovers, keep it up.
- Keep any eye on #11. Starr is a disruptive force, don't let him get to JJ a ton in the passing game.
- Don't get comfy in the 4th. USD scores so much in the 4th. They seem to be designed for comebacks. If the Griz are up, lets say 24-10... don't get relaxed, keep pushing, stay agressive.
- Watch for trickery. Joe Glenn loves this stuff, he's got a backup QB that can run, throw, and catch. I sense some trick plays on their way.
- Win on special teams. Make all fieldgoal attempts, flip the field on big punts, get yards on returns. Do all you can to tip the field position battle and put points on the board.
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I'm really seeing a struggle here for the Griz, even if USD might be deflated after being assured being knocked out of the post-season. I would be willing to bet our offense is feeling confident going into this game and our defense is looking to prove themselves. This game could set up well for the defense to get back on track, which is great. The offense will probably find a challenge with a USD defense that will be one of the best they've faced. I'll say in USD fashion this game is low scoring and the Griz fend off a late Yotes rally. Griz win 27-20.
Original report:
Writing this from the Hotel Palomar in San Francisco, I'm here for the year-end Realtors convention. Today is a bit of an off-day, but in a few hours I'm hopping a train and headed to Palo Alto to catch Stanford vs Oregon. Should be fun. I'm typing this up on my tablet so it's going to be a little shorter than most scouting reports.
The Griz are back to their winning ways, albeit a very tense win last week, they have improved to 7-2 and probably need just 2 more wins in the next 3 games to be a lock for the playoffs. There's still a tiny glimmer of hope for a share of a conference title as NAU, EWU, and MSU all have at least 2 conference games left (at least) but it's quite the long shot. The Griz would need NAU to drop at least one game against an inferior opponent, EWU to lose two, MSU to lose two (one being to UM). And even then NAU or EWU would hold the auto-bid tie breaker, but the Griz would still be recognized as getting a share. I've seen stranger things, but that's out of this team's control, what they're presumably focused on this week are the Yotes, who will pose a formidable challenge on the road.
South Dakota Coyotes - 4-5
10-7 win vs UC Davis - Neither teams had good showings on offense, USD about 270 yards of offense, UCD about 280. USD was up 10-0 and Davis scored late to make it close. USD closed out the game after the David touchdown by picking up a handful of first downs and they ran the clock out.
31-14 loss vs Kansas - It was a tight first half, KU went into the half up just 14-7, but then put the game away in the 3rd and early 4th adding 10 more points and getting up 24-7, USD scored again and KU answered that with another TD late. KU ran for 285 yards, however I see USD had some good yardage on the ground too, 220.
22-16 loss vs NAU - Not as close as the score suggests, at least for most of the game. NAU controlled the game for 3 quarters, up 19-0 at the end of the 3rd and 22-3 into the 4th. USD mounted a comeback attempt that fell short, they scored 16 4th qtr points (2 TDs, 1 field goal, 1 failed 2-pt attempt). USD's comeback attempt ended after a failed on-sides kick and NAU ran out the clock. Zach Bauman had a great game, 150 rushing yards.
24-10 loss vs W. Illinois - Another game that was more of a defensive struggle, just 250 yards on offense for USD, 330 for WIU. USD made it interesting in the 4th when they scored a TD making it 17-10 with 8 minutes to go but WIU scored again and in USD's final 3 possessions they had a turnover on downs, lost a fumble, and wound up punting (but then didn't get the ball back)
17-14 win vs Missouri State - USD had to come back to win this game. In what appears to be common place for them there was not a lot of yards on either side of the ball, 180 for MSU, 275 for USD. It was 14-6 late in the 3rd after MSU blocked a punt and took it in for a TD. USD scored early in the 4th and picked up the 2 point conversion to tie it. On their next possession they missed a fieldgoal, but then on the following possession with just about 1:30 left in the game they hit a 41 yd fieldgoal to win it.
17-14 win vs Indiana State - Yep, same score as the week before. And it was another comeback, USD was trailing 14-7 at the half, made it 14-10 in the 3rd and scored a TD in the 4th to grab the lead. Their running game found some traction and had over 200 yards, while their defense held ISU to 198 yards. USD probably could have won by more but they lost 4 turnovers in the game.
38-31 win vs Northern Iowa - This one caught some attention as USD beat UNI was (at that point) in the top 10. I recall reading UNI has been devastated with injuries this year and were a shell of the team they were expected to be, however this was a huge win for the Yotes. It was a double OT win where USD mounted yet another come from behind win. They were down 28-7 late in the 3rd quarter and scored 21 unanswered points, with their last TD coming with 5 seconds left in the game to send it to OT. Both teams kicked a fieldgoal in the 1st OT. USD scored a TD in the 2OT and they stopped UNI on 4th and goal at the 7 to win it. It was a wild game, USD for the first time in any of their games had big passing numbers, 370 total passing yards, UNI was very balanced, 210 rushing, 235 passing. UNI's undoing was 3 costly interceptions that killed drives (but USD did not score on any of the following series off turnovers).
28-14 loss vs Illinois State - USD had another solid passing day, 250 in the air, and they actually out-gaine ILS 375 total yards to 285 total yards. Both teams had 3 turnovers. ILS scored on 4 bigger plays and did nothing other than that. USD tossed two interceptions on their last two drives.
38-34 loss to Youngstown State - This loss buried the dagger in USD's playoff hopes, playing top 10 Youngstown State. I count 10 lead changes in this game that was obviously back and forth the whole time. YSU piled up 520 total yards of offense on a balanced attack, while USD had 390 and was also fairly balanced. So what kept USD in this game? Fumbles. YSU lost 3 fumbles and USD scored 17 points directly off those turnovers to stay in the game. USD even held a 34-31 lead with 2 minutes left in the game, but YSU put together a game-winning drive and scored the go-ahead TD with just 15 seconds left in the game.
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Players to watch
#14 Kevin Earl - QB. A big guy at 6-6, he's a passing QB who I believe has started the last 5 games. his average is about 190 per game but don't let that fool you, in the last 3 games he's been at or over 250 yards each time. Also look for a few plays from #7 Josh Vander Maten who is a mobile/scrambling QB. He's got some passing stats, good rushing stats, and even receiving stats.
#21 Trevor Bouma - RB. A 5-9, 215 bruiser of a running back, leads the team with 620 yards and 2 TDs. Also 4th in total receptions as well. Look for #23 Jordan Roberts to run a lot as well, he's also 5-9 and 215, only a few receptions, about 300 yards on the year and 2 TDs.
#6 Terry Terrance, WR. A 5-9 guy that leads the team by a good margin in receptions, he's got 317 yards and 2 TDs. There's also #84 Riley Donavan who is a 6-1 WR and had a team high 440 yards and 2 TDs.
#15 Tyler Wilhem, TE. Interesting match up for the Griz, a big (6-4) pass catching TE that's got 250 yards this year.
#2 Devin Taverna, DB. A taller guy at 6-2, he leads the team in tackles with 62, he's got 1 INT and 2 forced fumbles.
#11 Tyler Starr, OLB. I recall Greg Rachac with the Gazette labeling Starr as the best OLB in the nation with pro potential written all over him. 53 tackles, 8 sacks, 4 forced fumbles, 14.5 TFLs. Yeah... I'd say so.
General Stats
- USD is scoring 19 points per game and allowing 23 points per game. The Griz are scoring 39 points per game and allowing 23 points per game.
- USD is a 4th quarter team, of the 170 points they've scored this year a whopping 79 points have been scored in the 4th. Meanwhile that's been the Grizzly strength, they've only allowed 34 points in the 4th qtr this whole year, and as we all know a lot of that came in the Sac game.
- UM is +12 in turnovers, USD is +2
- USD's defense will be statistically one of the best we've faced. They'd rank 3rd in the Big Sky behind only SUU and MSU and better than Cal Poly.
- USD scores TDs just 55% of the time when in the red zone and their D allows TDs 70% of the time. UM scores TDs 68% of the time when in the RZ and allows TDs 53% of the time.
- USD's punt coverage looks suspect, allowing an average of 11 yards per return
- Both UM and USD share a dubious stat, their defenses allow more 3rd down conversions than their offense picks up 3rd downs. UM's ratio is 42% conversion on O and 44% allowed on D. USD's is 33% on offense and 34% on defense.
- USD has had some kicking issues this year is 8-16 kicking.
- USD is 3-1 at home, they suffered their first home loss this last weekend.
- Opposing teams seem to run the ball well against USD, they average allowing 180 yards per game on the groud.
Keys to a Grizzly Victory
- Stop the run. USD is a balanced offense but keeping their ground game in check will be huge for the Griz. Our front 7 has to be pissed this week and will hopefully want to just smash these guys. They're not a quick/fast/skill running back corps but a power back system. No arm tackles, drive the guys back.
- Get the points. A lot of signs point to this game being low scoring, USD's defense is incredibly good. 3 points here or there could decide the game. As a point of reference last night Oregon forwent 2 fieldgoal attempts early in the game, both times they came out of the redzone with no points. They lost the game by 6, and that takes into account a failed 2 point conversion.
- Big Boy Football. I'm feeling inspired after watching the Stanford O-line dominate like they did last night. If our O-line wins in the trenches and helps Canada and Nguyen (and Van?) get loose then the Griz will be sitting pretty.
- Win the turnover battle. USD makes mistakes, their QB has 7 TDs and 6 INTs. They've got quite a few fumbles too. Our defense excels at turnovers, keep it up.
- Keep any eye on #11. Starr is a disruptive force, don't let him get to JJ a ton in the passing game.
- Don't get comfy in the 4th. USD scores so much in the 4th. They seem to be designed for comebacks. If the Griz are up, lets say 24-10... don't get relaxed, keep pushing, stay agressive.
- Watch for trickery. Joe Glenn loves this stuff, he's got a backup QB that can run, throw, and catch. I sense some trick plays on their way.
- Win on special teams. Make all fieldgoal attempts, flip the field on big punts, get yards on returns. Do all you can to tip the field position battle and put points on the board.
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I'm really seeing a struggle here for the Griz, even if USD might be deflated after being assured being knocked out of the post-season. I would be willing to bet our offense is feeling confident going into this game and our defense is looking to prove themselves. This game could set up well for the defense to get back on track, which is great. The offense will probably find a challenge with a USD defense that will be one of the best they've faced. I'll say in USD fashion this game is low scoring and the Griz fend off a late Yotes rally. Griz win 27-20.
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