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So here is what the Griz are looking at
- Thread starter Paytonlives
- Start date
The bottom line is that this team has beaten the teams it was supposed to and lost to the teams that they needed to beat in order for this to be a successful season. I really doubt the Griz make the playoffs even at 8-3. That will realistically mean that they have only one quality win on their record! There will simply be too many teams in the mix for playoff spots with 8-3 or 7-4 records with much better resume's than ours.
I said at the beginning of the year I would be in favor of retaining Coach Stiff and his staff if they showed significant improvement regardless of the record. Unfortunately, while there has been improvement, at this stage it has not been significant enough to consider retaining Stitt to this point. If he wins out I would not be against a one year extension. If he goes 7-4 I would recommend not renewing. If he goes 6-5 there should be no doubt that he should be shown the door.
I said at the beginning of the year I would be in favor of retaining Coach Stiff and his staff if they showed significant improvement regardless of the record. Unfortunately, while there has been improvement, at this stage it has not been significant enough to consider retaining Stitt to this point. If he wins out I would not be against a one year extension. If he goes 7-4 I would recommend not renewing. If he goes 6-5 there should be no doubt that he should be shown the door.
RayWill
Well-known member
bgbigdog said:
I think NAU is the most under rated team in the FCS right now. The voters do not seem to think so , the lack of respect they have garnered will not appear as a quality win if and that is a big if MT wins next week. There is a good chance NAU will still be unranked tomorrow and the Griz if they do win would have 0 wins against top 25 ranked opponents. Hard to make a case at that point for MT to be in the playoffs.
If we would’ve beat Weber yesterday, they would’ve been unranked come the end of the season cause they play Eastern next week on top of it. They still might be unranked come the end of the season. How does this make their situation any better? Depending on how much they lose to Eastern by, I think the committee might have to take a serious look at who gets the last spot. I think they’ll be inclined to pick the Griz too for the $$RayWill said:
mondayamqb
Well-known member
O'Day used to be on the selection committee.
For March Madness he was. Did he do it for football too?mondayamqb said:
BadlandsGrizFan
Well-known member
does 8-3 really get us into the playoffs???
That would give us likely the 5th...maybe 4th seed in the BigSky
I've always been in the line of thinking that an 8-3 Griz team is always in because the NCAA wants our money....but this year I honestly dont know....
Our strength of schedule is bad....it would be highway robbery for the committee to put in the 5th seed in the BigSky unless the rest of the country just really goes to shit over the last 3 weeks.
One thing they would have going for them is that the committee loves hot teams...and winning 3 in a row would look good. I have serious doubts if they can do that or not however.
That would give us likely the 5th...maybe 4th seed in the BigSky
I've always been in the line of thinking that an 8-3 Griz team is always in because the NCAA wants our money....but this year I honestly dont know....
Our strength of schedule is bad....it would be highway robbery for the committee to put in the 5th seed in the BigSky unless the rest of the country just really goes to shit over the last 3 weeks.
One thing they would have going for them is that the committee loves hot teams...and winning 3 in a row would look good. I have serious doubts if they can do that or not however.
BadlandsGrizFan said:
If the Griz are 8-3 it would include:
- a 3 game winning streak
- they'd be somewhere probably in the 17th - 25th ranking
- a single "good" win against ranked NAU
- a good road win to end the regular season
- All them dollars for the playoffs
- It could be argued that (if) Weber and EWU get in that the Griz played EWU very well and had a comeback effort fall short against Weber.
I think they're in but they have to win out.
Obviously it would really help if two of the other Big Sky teams in the mix, NAU, EWU, SUU, and Weber dropped 2 of their last 3.
BadlandsGrizFan
Well-known member
BWahlberg said:
Ya kinda what I'm thinking as well. Past Griz teams I'd be optomistic about their chances...current team, I'm doubtful.
Seems that we are now going off the Good Loss approach like our little brothers to the east....
BadlandsGrizFan said:BWahlberg said:
Ya kinda what I'm thinking as well. Past Griz teams I'd be optomistic about their chances...current team, I'm doubtful.
Seems that we are now going off the Good Loss approach like our little brothers to the east....
Unfortunately you're right.
"Since the playoff field expanded from 20 to 24 teams in 2013, the Big Sky Conference has had at least three teams make the field. In 2013 and 2016, the league had four teams make the playoffs. "
"No Big Sky teams with three losses have been left out since 2013's expansion. "
http://missoulian.com/sports/college/big-sky-conference/university-of-montana/early-look-at-montana-s-playoff-probabilities/article_b3995285-2cb3-5bba-a5e3-051016f0c085.html
"No Big Sky teams with three losses have been left out since 2013's expansion. "
http://missoulian.com/sports/college/big-sky-conference/university-of-montana/early-look-at-montana-s-playoff-probabilities/article_b3995285-2cb3-5bba-a5e3-051016f0c085.html
BadlandsGrizFan
Well-known member
reinell30 said:
I used to say this same thing always.....this year tho I'm just done expecting things that used to happen.
From Prof Chaos on AGS, a very good poster:
NDSU and USD in playoffs.
"Work left to do
Western Illinois (5-2, 2-2)
Quality wins: @Coastal Carolina, @NAU, @UNI
Bad losses: None
Remaining games: SDSU, @ISUr, @ISUb, SIU
Despite losing 2 of their last 3 WIU is still in a good spot in regards to their playoff positioning IMO. They likely need to win 2 more to get in and their last two games are very winnable. I think they'd have an interesting 6-5 resume if they slip up and lose 3 of their last 4 given their good OOC wins but I have a hard time seeing how they'd get in with a 3-5 conference record. They could potentially play themselves into a top 4 seed should they win out and I think even at 8-3 they'd have a solid shot at a seed and a bye but there's a lot of variables still to be determined for both scenarios.
South Dakota St (5-2, 2-2)
Quality wins: None
Bad losses: None
Remaining games: @WIU, NDSU, ISUr, @USD
Despite being wildly inconsistent so far the Jacks are still in a good position to make the playoffs. However their remaining schedule is brutal (combined 23-5 record for their reamining opponents) and they're likely going to need to win at least 2 to get into the field given their lack of quality wins so far which is far from a given. They could still play themselves into a seed if they win out but one more loss and they're probably going to be relegated to playing on Thanksgiving weekend.
Illinois St (5-2, 3-1)
Quality wins: USD
Bad losses: @SIU (due to margin moreso than the opponent)
Remaining games: @YSU, WIU, @SDSU, NDSU
The Redbirds essentially saved their season today with a huge home win against USD as they are now looking solid and only needing to win 2 of their last 4 to get in. However, that will not be easy as every team from here on out will be a tough out for them starting with a trip to the Ice Castle to face a YSU team in desperation mode. I think they can play themselves into a seed if they win out but losing one to get to 8-3 seems likely to leave them playing on Thanksgiving weekend given their underwhelming OOC performance.
Northern Iowa (4-3, 3-1)
Quality wins: @SDSU
Bad losses: None
Remaining games: @NDSU, USD, @MSU, ISUb
All of a sudden the Panthers have a revitalized playoff outlook after 2 big conference wins over SDSU and YSU. I think they'll need to win 3 or 4 to get in which means they're going to need to beat either NDSU or USD along with their final two games (which they should be heavily favored in) to get in. They could even play themselves into a playoff bye (and the conference autobid) if they win out. If they drop two, especially if those are to NDSU and USD, I have a hard time seeing them getting in at 6-5 so they'll need to continue their good play over the next two weeks if they hope to play past Thanksgiving.
Southern Illinois (4-3, 2-2)
Quality wins: ISUr
Bad losses: None
Remaining games: @USD, MSU, YSU, @WIU
The Salukis are over .500 heading into late October for the first time in a while and they have some very real playoff hopes but they've got a pretty tough schedule down the stretch and they'll likely need to win 3 of 4 to get in. They could even play themselves into a seed if they win out but, regardless, they're in a better position right now than most everyone outside of Carbondale thought they would be at this point in the season."
NDSU and USD in playoffs.
"Work left to do
Western Illinois (5-2, 2-2)
Quality wins: @Coastal Carolina, @NAU, @UNI
Bad losses: None
Remaining games: SDSU, @ISUr, @ISUb, SIU
Despite losing 2 of their last 3 WIU is still in a good spot in regards to their playoff positioning IMO. They likely need to win 2 more to get in and their last two games are very winnable. I think they'd have an interesting 6-5 resume if they slip up and lose 3 of their last 4 given their good OOC wins but I have a hard time seeing how they'd get in with a 3-5 conference record. They could potentially play themselves into a top 4 seed should they win out and I think even at 8-3 they'd have a solid shot at a seed and a bye but there's a lot of variables still to be determined for both scenarios.
South Dakota St (5-2, 2-2)
Quality wins: None
Bad losses: None
Remaining games: @WIU, NDSU, ISUr, @USD
Despite being wildly inconsistent so far the Jacks are still in a good position to make the playoffs. However their remaining schedule is brutal (combined 23-5 record for their reamining opponents) and they're likely going to need to win at least 2 to get into the field given their lack of quality wins so far which is far from a given. They could still play themselves into a seed if they win out but one more loss and they're probably going to be relegated to playing on Thanksgiving weekend.
Illinois St (5-2, 3-1)
Quality wins: USD
Bad losses: @SIU (due to margin moreso than the opponent)
Remaining games: @YSU, WIU, @SDSU, NDSU
The Redbirds essentially saved their season today with a huge home win against USD as they are now looking solid and only needing to win 2 of their last 4 to get in. However, that will not be easy as every team from here on out will be a tough out for them starting with a trip to the Ice Castle to face a YSU team in desperation mode. I think they can play themselves into a seed if they win out but losing one to get to 8-3 seems likely to leave them playing on Thanksgiving weekend given their underwhelming OOC performance.
Northern Iowa (4-3, 3-1)
Quality wins: @SDSU
Bad losses: None
Remaining games: @NDSU, USD, @MSU, ISUb
All of a sudden the Panthers have a revitalized playoff outlook after 2 big conference wins over SDSU and YSU. I think they'll need to win 3 or 4 to get in which means they're going to need to beat either NDSU or USD along with their final two games (which they should be heavily favored in) to get in. They could even play themselves into a playoff bye (and the conference autobid) if they win out. If they drop two, especially if those are to NDSU and USD, I have a hard time seeing them getting in at 6-5 so they'll need to continue their good play over the next two weeks if they hope to play past Thanksgiving.
Southern Illinois (4-3, 2-2)
Quality wins: ISUr
Bad losses: None
Remaining games: @USD, MSU, YSU, @WIU
The Salukis are over .500 heading into late October for the first time in a while and they have some very real playoff hopes but they've got a pretty tough schedule down the stretch and they'll likely need to win 3 of 4 to get in. They could even play themselves into a seed if they win out but, regardless, they're in a better position right now than most everyone outside of Carbondale thought they would be at this point in the season."
cmtgrizzly
Well-known member
We can win the next 3 I have no doubt. Will we? I dont know and it wont be easy. I just remeber last year and the feeling was, "just win one more win"or "just beat the cats and we are in the playoffs". Well we never did win that one more game. I do think this team is more ready to do what is needed than last year. Strongs distraction is poorly timed but our D actually played well last week. If our guys focus on playing smart fundamental football and clean up the turnovers and bad penalties from last week, I like our chances. Here is Hill's chance to step into the spotlight. I think he can meet the challenge until Jensen returns.