Back home and coming off a stinging road loss the Griz are looking to re-group and are facing a well rested and prepared Sac State team. Sac had some talk as being a dark-horse contender to win the Big Sky but a rough conference schedule and the untimely resignation of their head coach sent them in a bit of a spin. This team has a great offense highlighted by one of the better QBs in the Big Sky. This game promises to be a battle.
Sacramento State Hornets: 4-4 record
49-13 win vs Incarnate Word; Sac St traveled to UIW in their opening game, a UIW I had to check and double check to confirm, they’re an FCS school. This game was over at the half, it was 35-6 Sac St at that point and they added a few more TDs to keep the lead comfy in the 2nd half. Sac had about 385 total yards of offense and forced two turnovers in the game.
55-13 loss vs Cal; Obviously over-matched it was 45-7 at the half. Cal ran for 250 and passed for 320 while Sac didn’t even have 300 yards of total offense.
42-31 win vs Weber State; I’d bet this was a stressful game for Sac fans to watch. The Hornets go up 20-0 but then Weber scores a few TDs while Sac adds some fieldgoals and the 20 point lead is suddenly down to a 6 point lead in the early 4th quarter with Sac up 30-24. However Sac scores the next 12 points and Weber tacks on a last-second TD to make it look a little more close. Sac was very balanced in the game, 260 rushing and 225 passing. Weber on the other hand passed for almost 380 yards.
59-13 win vs Menlo; Who? Exactly. Sac blitzed whoever these guys are/were, 275 rushing and 275 passing roughly – total ass kicking.
44-24 loss vs Idaho State; This game was where ISU started making a move towards being a contender while Sac’s hopes started to drop. It was 24-17 ISU at the half and promising to be a shootout. However in the 2nd half ISU buckled down and scored two unanswered TDs to widen the lead. Sac had two turnovers in the 2nd half and a few short drives that turned into punts. On the game Sac ran for 150 and passed for 380, while ISU ran for 191 and passed for 450 yards! 3 costly turnovers for Sac in this game.
59-56 loss vs Montana State; I watched this game and it was clear as the 2nd half was going that the last team with the ball would win it. I know a lot of Griz fans also watched this game too – it was back and forth. It opened hot with teams trading scores, everyone buckled down in the 2nd quarter, and then all hell broke loose in the 2nd half. There was only 1 punt in the 2nd half – every other possession resulted in scores – 12 scores on 13 possessions. MSU ran for 270 and passed for 350 while Sac ran for 230 and passed for 460. What really hurt Sac was their kickoff coverage. It was obvious their defense wasn’t going to stop MSU but when Sac scored to grab the lead with 1:02 left in the game they promptly gave up a 74 yard kickoff return to set up a quick MSU score. Sac gave up an average of almost 38 yards per kickoff return.
43-38 win vs Northern Colorado; It was close the whole way but Sac usually held the lead or a tie – they answered most UNC scores with scores of their own. Sac went -2 in turnovers in the game and UNC wound up losing after scoring a TD with a minute to go but failing to get the on-sides kick. Sac ran for 230 and passed for 270 while UNC ran for 170 and passed for 300. UNC was helped out by Sac’s two tunrovers and once again kick coverage was suspect.
56-27 loss vs Cal Poly; Much like the ISU loss it was looking like a battle at the half but then in the 2nd half Poly locked down and Sac couldn’t do a thing. Poly ran for 400 and passed for 100 while Sac had about 330 passing but had 2 interceptions and 1 lost fumble.
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General Stats:
Points per game and yards per game is interesting because what we see is each team’s offense and defense mimic each other. The Griz have a low-scoring offense and a defense that over the course of 8 games has not allowed much either. Sac, on the other hand, scores a lot and allows a lot – in fact they’re within 1 point of each other.
Red Zone efficiency is a similar story, however the Griz defense in the RZ has been slipping and hasn’t prevented a RZ touchdown for two games now I believe. They’re still strong when you consider the long-run of the season but recent trends suggest a different story.
Points per game is where it gets interesting. This is my biggest brewing concern – I’ll explain more in a bit. First when looking at the Grizzly offense compared to Sac’s defense we see something similar to what we saw vs Poly – an offense that isn’t even used to scoring as much as the defense is allowing.
Here’s what really concerns me, something that I’ve not see from a Grizzly defense in a while. The 2014 Grizzly defense gets continually worse as the game goes on – when looking at points per game. The Griz have shown this season that the defense allows more and more points per quarter as things progress, something I’ve not seen out of a Grizzly defense for a while. Meanwhile Sac’s offense stays at pretty high levels throughout the game.
Side by side with offense and defense we see how UM’s offense tapers off as games go on and their defense allows more as games go on, while Sac just kind of hovers around being fairly consistent as things progress in games.
Some other general stats:
- Sac is +1 in turnovers this season, compare to the Griz who are +7.
- As mentioned Sac’s kickoff coverage unit has shown issues, they allow 26 yards per return, only EWU has given up more kickoff return yards in the conference. However UM is the 2nd worst kickoff average team with just an average of 16 yards per return.
- This will be the 4th best passing offense vs the best passing defense – statistically, in the conference.
- Sac’s kicker has made the 2nd most fieldgoals in the Big Sky this season and the team is ranked 3rd in overall fieldgoal efficiency.
- For all of the negative defensive stats about Sacramento one that stands out is that they have the 3rd best third down defense in the Big Sky, allowing conversions just 37.5% of the time.
- Sac is the most penalized team in the Big Sky. They average 80.5 yards per game in penalty yards. Compare to the Griz who average 50.5 yards per game. What’s interesting though is that Sac also has the 2nd most opponent penalties against them per game. The Griz will have to avoid falling into that trap.
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Players to watch:
#12 Garrett Safron, QB – the 6-1 senior has been a pain in the side for many Big Sky teams for years. He’s a true dual-threat QB and listed as the 2nd best passer and 4th most efficient QB in the Big Sky. He’s run for 588 yards and 3 TDs this season and passed for just about 278 per game with 22 TDs and 8 Ints. He rushes for 73.5 yards per game.
#2 DeAndre Carter, WR – Sac’s offense primarily features two main WRs – Carter is one of those two and one of the statistical leaders in all of the Big Sky. Carter averages 93 yards per game and has 11 TDs this season. Carter also returns punts but has just 3 returns.
#86 Nnamdi Agude, WR – a tall WR at 6-3, he’s got the most amount of yards on the team and averages 107.4 yards per game receiving. He’s got 7 TDs and has the highest YPC average of the main contributors at 17.2 yards per catch.
#25 Jordan Robinson, RB – The main back in the offense, Robinson is averaging just a few more yards per game than Safron is with 76.2 yards per game. He’s got 4 rushing TDs this season. He’s also 3rd on the team in receptions, but for being there he’s just got 95 receiving yards and 2 receiving TDs.
#44 Darnell Sankey, LB – Another aggressive linebacker for the Griz to face off against. Sankey has 100 tackles this season. He’s got 9 TFLs, 2 sacks, 3 forced fumbles, and 1 interception.
#3 Robbie Kendall, S – A 6-0 safety transfer Kendall is 2nd on the team with 78 tackles. He’s got 2.5 sacks this season as well.
#35 Jaycee Totty, DL – A 6-3, 260 pound defensive lineman Totty leads the team with 4.5 sacks. He’s got 9.5 TFLs this season and 34 total tackles.
#48 Henry Fernandez, LB – A 5-11 linebacker who is 3rd on the team in tackles with 62, he’s also recovered a fumble this season.
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Keys to a Grizzly victory;
1. Don’t let Sac get moving in the 2nd half. It seems that teams who put Sacramento State away like ISU and Poly did it by coming out in the 2nd half and shutting down Safron and company. The Griz have been criticized for not making effective adjustments at the half – this game will require that.
2. Pressure and contain Safron as best as you can. He’s a threat to beat us in the air and with his feet. With our defensive set we normally don’t have players spy on the QB but on some key 3rd downs we could see the Griz pass defense shut down his options and he’ll take off running. Can the Griz put a plan in place to stop him? Wags needs to get multiple sacks and pressures – he’s the key disruptive force to their passing game.
3. Get the passing game going and get your best players in space. Sac’s pass defense isn’t good. The Griz can’t probably just take home-run shots on every pass but quick/shorter passes to quicker playmakers like Canada and Van will help. Get Jones, Haynes, Jannssen, and Burke going too. Spread the ball out in a more up-tempo offense. The Griz are not a power-run ball control team, as much as they want to tell themselves that they are – statistically they just haven’t been that, so go with the strength of this team. If that means 40+ passes then so be it.
4. Force turnovers. I don’t think the Griz have forced a turnover in two games. Sac doesn’t turn it over a lot but grabbing a key pick or fumble would be great.
5. Limit big plays. Be it the zone-read with Safron or a deep shot to Agude or Carter the Griz cannot let Sac pile up the big gainers.
6. As few negative yard plays as possible. How many did we have against Sac when on offense? It seemed like a ton and some were drive killers. Those kind of mistakes in execution will burn us this weekend again if a bunch happen.
7. Do no harm on special teams. I don’t know if I can say “win” on special teams because our return game hasn’t done much and our fieldgoal kicking is at .500. On their side they do have a good kick returner and a good kicker. The Griz could have some opportunities for returns here too – make them count and get some yards out of them.
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This game will present an opportunity for the Griz to get back on track and build confidence if they can get a solid win. I’m on the fence about who wins, the loss of Whitted (if he’s out) could hurt our pass defense, but I’m glad Van Ack will be back on defense. Last week Poly’s defense adjusted and shut the Griz down – that can’t happen this weekend.
I think that the Griz can win this with the support of a good crowd and some early successes on offense and defense. On the road Sac is 2-2 and their defense is averaging about 38 points per game allowed. I think with their offense it’s going to be a close one. I’ll say the Griz eek one out, winning 38-35.
Sacramento State Hornets: 4-4 record
49-13 win vs Incarnate Word; Sac St traveled to UIW in their opening game, a UIW I had to check and double check to confirm, they’re an FCS school. This game was over at the half, it was 35-6 Sac St at that point and they added a few more TDs to keep the lead comfy in the 2nd half. Sac had about 385 total yards of offense and forced two turnovers in the game.
55-13 loss vs Cal; Obviously over-matched it was 45-7 at the half. Cal ran for 250 and passed for 320 while Sac didn’t even have 300 yards of total offense.
42-31 win vs Weber State; I’d bet this was a stressful game for Sac fans to watch. The Hornets go up 20-0 but then Weber scores a few TDs while Sac adds some fieldgoals and the 20 point lead is suddenly down to a 6 point lead in the early 4th quarter with Sac up 30-24. However Sac scores the next 12 points and Weber tacks on a last-second TD to make it look a little more close. Sac was very balanced in the game, 260 rushing and 225 passing. Weber on the other hand passed for almost 380 yards.
59-13 win vs Menlo; Who? Exactly. Sac blitzed whoever these guys are/were, 275 rushing and 275 passing roughly – total ass kicking.
44-24 loss vs Idaho State; This game was where ISU started making a move towards being a contender while Sac’s hopes started to drop. It was 24-17 ISU at the half and promising to be a shootout. However in the 2nd half ISU buckled down and scored two unanswered TDs to widen the lead. Sac had two turnovers in the 2nd half and a few short drives that turned into punts. On the game Sac ran for 150 and passed for 380, while ISU ran for 191 and passed for 450 yards! 3 costly turnovers for Sac in this game.
59-56 loss vs Montana State; I watched this game and it was clear as the 2nd half was going that the last team with the ball would win it. I know a lot of Griz fans also watched this game too – it was back and forth. It opened hot with teams trading scores, everyone buckled down in the 2nd quarter, and then all hell broke loose in the 2nd half. There was only 1 punt in the 2nd half – every other possession resulted in scores – 12 scores on 13 possessions. MSU ran for 270 and passed for 350 while Sac ran for 230 and passed for 460. What really hurt Sac was their kickoff coverage. It was obvious their defense wasn’t going to stop MSU but when Sac scored to grab the lead with 1:02 left in the game they promptly gave up a 74 yard kickoff return to set up a quick MSU score. Sac gave up an average of almost 38 yards per kickoff return.
43-38 win vs Northern Colorado; It was close the whole way but Sac usually held the lead or a tie – they answered most UNC scores with scores of their own. Sac went -2 in turnovers in the game and UNC wound up losing after scoring a TD with a minute to go but failing to get the on-sides kick. Sac ran for 230 and passed for 270 while UNC ran for 170 and passed for 300. UNC was helped out by Sac’s two tunrovers and once again kick coverage was suspect.
56-27 loss vs Cal Poly; Much like the ISU loss it was looking like a battle at the half but then in the 2nd half Poly locked down and Sac couldn’t do a thing. Poly ran for 400 and passed for 100 while Sac had about 330 passing but had 2 interceptions and 1 lost fumble.
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General Stats:
Points per game and yards per game is interesting because what we see is each team’s offense and defense mimic each other. The Griz have a low-scoring offense and a defense that over the course of 8 games has not allowed much either. Sac, on the other hand, scores a lot and allows a lot – in fact they’re within 1 point of each other.
Red Zone efficiency is a similar story, however the Griz defense in the RZ has been slipping and hasn’t prevented a RZ touchdown for two games now I believe. They’re still strong when you consider the long-run of the season but recent trends suggest a different story.
Points per game is where it gets interesting. This is my biggest brewing concern – I’ll explain more in a bit. First when looking at the Grizzly offense compared to Sac’s defense we see something similar to what we saw vs Poly – an offense that isn’t even used to scoring as much as the defense is allowing.
Here’s what really concerns me, something that I’ve not see from a Grizzly defense in a while. The 2014 Grizzly defense gets continually worse as the game goes on – when looking at points per game. The Griz have shown this season that the defense allows more and more points per quarter as things progress, something I’ve not seen out of a Grizzly defense for a while. Meanwhile Sac’s offense stays at pretty high levels throughout the game.
Side by side with offense and defense we see how UM’s offense tapers off as games go on and their defense allows more as games go on, while Sac just kind of hovers around being fairly consistent as things progress in games.
Some other general stats:
- Sac is +1 in turnovers this season, compare to the Griz who are +7.
- As mentioned Sac’s kickoff coverage unit has shown issues, they allow 26 yards per return, only EWU has given up more kickoff return yards in the conference. However UM is the 2nd worst kickoff average team with just an average of 16 yards per return.
- This will be the 4th best passing offense vs the best passing defense – statistically, in the conference.
- Sac’s kicker has made the 2nd most fieldgoals in the Big Sky this season and the team is ranked 3rd in overall fieldgoal efficiency.
- For all of the negative defensive stats about Sacramento one that stands out is that they have the 3rd best third down defense in the Big Sky, allowing conversions just 37.5% of the time.
- Sac is the most penalized team in the Big Sky. They average 80.5 yards per game in penalty yards. Compare to the Griz who average 50.5 yards per game. What’s interesting though is that Sac also has the 2nd most opponent penalties against them per game. The Griz will have to avoid falling into that trap.
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Players to watch:
#12 Garrett Safron, QB – the 6-1 senior has been a pain in the side for many Big Sky teams for years. He’s a true dual-threat QB and listed as the 2nd best passer and 4th most efficient QB in the Big Sky. He’s run for 588 yards and 3 TDs this season and passed for just about 278 per game with 22 TDs and 8 Ints. He rushes for 73.5 yards per game.
#2 DeAndre Carter, WR – Sac’s offense primarily features two main WRs – Carter is one of those two and one of the statistical leaders in all of the Big Sky. Carter averages 93 yards per game and has 11 TDs this season. Carter also returns punts but has just 3 returns.
#86 Nnamdi Agude, WR – a tall WR at 6-3, he’s got the most amount of yards on the team and averages 107.4 yards per game receiving. He’s got 7 TDs and has the highest YPC average of the main contributors at 17.2 yards per catch.
#25 Jordan Robinson, RB – The main back in the offense, Robinson is averaging just a few more yards per game than Safron is with 76.2 yards per game. He’s got 4 rushing TDs this season. He’s also 3rd on the team in receptions, but for being there he’s just got 95 receiving yards and 2 receiving TDs.
#44 Darnell Sankey, LB – Another aggressive linebacker for the Griz to face off against. Sankey has 100 tackles this season. He’s got 9 TFLs, 2 sacks, 3 forced fumbles, and 1 interception.
#3 Robbie Kendall, S – A 6-0 safety transfer Kendall is 2nd on the team with 78 tackles. He’s got 2.5 sacks this season as well.
#35 Jaycee Totty, DL – A 6-3, 260 pound defensive lineman Totty leads the team with 4.5 sacks. He’s got 9.5 TFLs this season and 34 total tackles.
#48 Henry Fernandez, LB – A 5-11 linebacker who is 3rd on the team in tackles with 62, he’s also recovered a fumble this season.
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Keys to a Grizzly victory;
1. Don’t let Sac get moving in the 2nd half. It seems that teams who put Sacramento State away like ISU and Poly did it by coming out in the 2nd half and shutting down Safron and company. The Griz have been criticized for not making effective adjustments at the half – this game will require that.
2. Pressure and contain Safron as best as you can. He’s a threat to beat us in the air and with his feet. With our defensive set we normally don’t have players spy on the QB but on some key 3rd downs we could see the Griz pass defense shut down his options and he’ll take off running. Can the Griz put a plan in place to stop him? Wags needs to get multiple sacks and pressures – he’s the key disruptive force to their passing game.
3. Get the passing game going and get your best players in space. Sac’s pass defense isn’t good. The Griz can’t probably just take home-run shots on every pass but quick/shorter passes to quicker playmakers like Canada and Van will help. Get Jones, Haynes, Jannssen, and Burke going too. Spread the ball out in a more up-tempo offense. The Griz are not a power-run ball control team, as much as they want to tell themselves that they are – statistically they just haven’t been that, so go with the strength of this team. If that means 40+ passes then so be it.
4. Force turnovers. I don’t think the Griz have forced a turnover in two games. Sac doesn’t turn it over a lot but grabbing a key pick or fumble would be great.
5. Limit big plays. Be it the zone-read with Safron or a deep shot to Agude or Carter the Griz cannot let Sac pile up the big gainers.
6. As few negative yard plays as possible. How many did we have against Sac when on offense? It seemed like a ton and some were drive killers. Those kind of mistakes in execution will burn us this weekend again if a bunch happen.
7. Do no harm on special teams. I don’t know if I can say “win” on special teams because our return game hasn’t done much and our fieldgoal kicking is at .500. On their side they do have a good kick returner and a good kicker. The Griz could have some opportunities for returns here too – make them count and get some yards out of them.
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This game will present an opportunity for the Griz to get back on track and build confidence if they can get a solid win. I’m on the fence about who wins, the loss of Whitted (if he’s out) could hurt our pass defense, but I’m glad Van Ack will be back on defense. Last week Poly’s defense adjusted and shut the Griz down – that can’t happen this weekend.
I think that the Griz can win this with the support of a good crowd and some early successes on offense and defense. On the road Sac is 2-2 and their defense is averaging about 38 points per game allowed. I think with their offense it’s going to be a close one. I’ll say the Griz eek one out, winning 38-35.