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Race for the 2 seed

BWahlberg

BWahlberg

Well-known member
DONOR
Wild things can happen but as of right now it really feels like it's NDSU and then everyone else. Assuming the Bison don't trip up they've got the 1 seed on lock and it would seem that the 2 seed is going to be vitally important for the sake of home games & avoiding NDSU until the natty.

Looking at things I think you've got a handful of teams that seemingly have the best shot for it.

Control their destiny

Montana - @Weber, vs EWU, @PSU, vs MSU. I think the Grizzlies control their destiny, undefeated and Big Sky conference champions capping the year with a top 5 win (presumably) against MSU would vault them over Tarleton on accounts of winning a far stronger conference and by then they should be ahead of Tarleton in Massey, SoS, and Sagarin too.

Tarleton State - @ACU (ranked 24th), bye, vs N. Alabama, vs Austin Peay (ranked 22nd). Tarleton is probably winning out, if Montana stumbles they've probably got the 2 seed locked down even though some other 1 loss teams could have far better SoS / Massey / Sagarin arguments. I just don't see the playoff committee seeding a 1 or 2 loss team over an undefeated Tarleton.

Need some help

South Dakota State - vs Indiana State, @USD, vs Illinois State (ranked 17th), @ North Dakota (ranked 9th). SDSU needs to get healthy and two games against bad teams could get them right. If their only blemish is a loss without their starting QB @ the 1 seed NDSU by season's end they're a strong candidate. They'll need Cats to beat Montana and Tarleton to drop a game I think.

North Dakota - @USD, vs NDSU, @Murray, vs SDSU. A wicked finish to the season for the Fighting Hawks who are playing really good football right now. They would be the hottest team in the FCS if they can somehow run the table and beat NDSU and SDSU to outright win the MVFC. If UND goes on that run I could see the playoff committee elevating them over an undefeated Tarleton, and maybe even Montana despite the head to head. Lets say UND wins out and the Griz lose to the cats.... they legitimately could land the 2 seed without needing as much "help" from other teams games. All you have to do is beat some of the most dominant teams of the last two decades, no big deal lol.

Needs lots of help

Montana State - @UNC, vs WSU, vs Davis, @ Montana. The best the Cats can finish is 10-2, however the losses would be SDSU at home and Oregon, so no bad losses. Their last 4 games, save the Weber one, will test this team and if they win out they've got an interesting argument. For MSU to land the 2 seed they'll need to obviously win out and have both Tarleton and SDSU drop a game.

UC Davis - vs ISU, @Idaho, @MSU, vs Sac. Davis's no contest against Mercer is going to haunt them. They'll need to win out to finish 10-1 with their only loss being to Washington. Their two signature wins would be road wins against NAU and MSU. To win the conference if they need to beat MSU and then MSU needs to beat Montana. Like others would need Tarleton and SDSU to drop another game as well. Tough road ahead but not impossible.

Needs absolute chaos

Lehigh & Tennessee Tech - Yes both are undefeated but have incredibly softer schedules in smaller conferences. None play any ranked teams to close out the season. TTU has to play Kentucky still so they'll post 1 loss presumably. You would need virtually every team above them to lose more than 1 game and to an unranked team for that to happen and then insanity in both the Missouri Valley and the Big Sky to elevate them. It's not impossible I guess, but I just can't imagine it.

Just, no

Harvard - I guarantee you some doofus like Craig Haley is going to argue that a 10-0 Harvard should be a top 4 seed though.
 
What if UND beats NDSU?

The committee going to seed their darlings NDSU behind Tarleton? Assuming Griz win out. Could we get a 1.Montana. 2.Tarleton 3.NDSU 4.UND. 5.SDSU 6.MSU???
 
BadlandsGrizFan said:
What if UND beats NDSU?

The committee going to seed their darlings NDSU behind Tarleton? Assuming Griz win out. Could we get a 1.Montana. 2.Tarleton 3.NDSU 4.UND. 5.SDSU 6.MSU???
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If No.Dakota beats the BUFFS, there is an excellent chance No. Dakota State would only drop to a 2nd seed. Certainly no lower than a 3rd seed (assuming that’s their only loss).

The later (#3) would require Montana and Tarleton to finish undefeated, and or No. Dakota Sioux/Hawks to run the table to wrap up their season. That would give the Selection Committee three good options to fill two slots above the Beeezzon
 
Grizzlies1982 said:
If No.Dakota beats the BUFFS, there is an excellent chance No. Dakota State would only drop to a 2nd seed. Certainly no lower than a 3rd seed (assuming that’s their only loss).

The later (#3) would require Montana and Tarleton to finish undefeated, and or No. Dakota Sioux/Hawks to run the table to wrap up their season. That would give the Selection Committee three good options to fill two slots above the Beeezzon
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I agree. But it would be interesting to really force the committees hand. They’d have to decide between who is “more deserving”. vs which team
Is just truly better.
 
Wouldn't the bracket put 1 and 4 on one side and 2 and 3 on the other side? If the committee is going manifest Tarleton into a top 2 seed, fine. Let's just hope Montana is on the same side of the bracket and ranked high enough remain standing after Tarleton faces its first challenging FCS opponent of the year.

We've been the Tarleton of past playoffs, right? In 2007, the Griz were undefeated, having played one of the weakest schedules I can remember. We had four regular season road games. Our nonconference opponents were Fort Lewis, Albany and Southern Utah. We were seeded third in the tournament. The committee sent Wofford to Montana and the Griz were one and done 22-23.

Funny thing, the No. 2 team McNeese was also one and done, lost to EWU 15-44.
Only one of the top 4 seeds, Southern Illinois reached the semifinal.

APP state which wasn't seeded won the champoinship.

If there's knock on Montana this season it will be that it only played 4 road games, while NDSU, Tarleton played 6 road games, SDSU 5 and MSU 5.
UM will argue that it played without a bye week, which should be selling point. But there aren't many teams in the country with only 4 road games. I haven't looked, but I assume Every member on the selection committee will come from a university with more than 4 road games, by the very nature of the schedule decisions it has made Montana is likely an outlier when it comes to the selection discussion.
 
griz4life said:
Wouldn't the bracket put 1 and 4 on one side and 2 and 3 on the other side? If the committee is going manifest Tarleton into a top 2 seed, fine. Let's just hope Montana is on the same side of the bracket and ranked high enough remain standing after Tarleton faces its first challenging FCS opponent of the year.

We've been the Tarleton of past playoffs, right? In 2007, the Griz were undefeated, having played one of the weakest schedules I can remember. We had four regular season road games. Our nonconference opponents were Fort Lewis, Albany and Southern Utah. We were seeded third in the tournament. The committee sent Wofford to Montana and the Griz were one and done 22-23.

Funny thing, the No. 2 team McNeese was also one and done, lost to EWU 15-44.
Only one of the top 4 seeds, Southern Illinois reached the semifinal.

APP state which wasn't seeded won the champoinship.

If there's knock on Montana this season it will be that it only played 4 road games, while NDSU, Tarleton played 6 road games, SDSU 5 and MSU 5.
UM will argue that it played without a bye week, which should be selling point. But there aren't many teams in the country with only 4 road games. I haven't looked, but I assume Every member on the selection committee will come from a university with more than 4 road games, by the very nature of the schedule decisions it has made Montana is likely an outlier when it comes to the selection discussion.
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People were pretty high on the 07 team and I was never sure why. Except drubbing the bobcats post-Lulay they didn’t have any good wins. I remember being at the Portland State game and thinking there’s no way the Griz make it to the semifinals
 
Here's how Sam Becton sees the seeding if the top 3 win out.

Top Eight Seeds
1. North Dakota State (12-0)
2. Montana (12-0)
3. Tarleton State (12-0)
4. North Dakota (9-3)
5. Lehigh (12-0)
6. Monmouth (11-1)
7. Tennessee Tech (11-1)
8. Rhode Island (10-2)
 
1. Montana
2. MVFC champion UND
3. Who cares UM and UND are both way better than whoever the third best team is.
 
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BozAngelesGriz said:
People were pretty high on the 07 team and I was never sure why. Except drubbing the bobcats post-Lulay they didn’t have any good wins. I remember being at the Portland State game and thinking there’s no way the Griz make it to the semifinals
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It was one of the worst years for conference strength. EWU decent. MSU was terrible, coming off its meth coach/player cocaine scandal. The cats didnt hire Ron Ash until that June and it showed.

This season is better.
 
griz4life said:
Wouldn't the bracket put 1 and 4 on one side and 2 and 3 on the other side? If the committee is going manifest Tarleton into a top 2 seed, fine. Let's just hope Montana is on the same side of the bracket and ranked high enough remain standing after Tarleton faces its first challenging FCS opponent of the year.
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So if Tarleton got the two seed and the Griz got three, you're assuming that Tarleton loses at home and then Montana gets to stay home. That is certainly the ideal situation, but in thinking about it, even if the Griz had to go to Tarleton, I think we still win that game. And I think there'd be a lot of Texas Griz fans that would show up for it. I would be THRILLED for that matchup, considering that Stephenville is just a short drive down the freeway from me.

I'm not too concerned about our other games, but we do still have to beat the cats and that game is always worrisome, even at home.

I don't really think Abilene Christian has a shot at beating Tarleton but stranger things have happened. I guess we're all ACU fans this weekend! If only the Griz game weren't at the exact same time, I'd go be an ACU fan for the day.
 
horribilisfan8184 said:
Here's how Sam Becton sees the seeding if the top 3 win out.

Top Eight Seeds
1. North Dakota State (12-0)
2. Montana (12-0)
3. Tarleton State (12-0)
4. North Dakota (9-3)
5. Lehigh (12-0)
6. Monmouth (11-1)
7. Tennessee Tech (11-1)
8. Rhode Island (10-2)
Click to expand...
I generally don't agree with that guy on much but he got that one right. Lol.

Edit: only in regard to where he put Montana. The rest is a mess but I didn't pay any attention to it when I posted this.
 
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AZGrizFan said:
I mean...at SOME point one would think Tarleton's SOS HAS to come into the discussion? They are getting a shit ton of love for beating a mediocre Army team.
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By Sagarin ratings Tarleton is 73 and Montana is 70, UND 74, and Army 86. Nobody is seriously outranking the other like you might expect, currently. In three weeks that could and should change.
 
horribilisfan8184 said:
Here's how Sam Becton sees the seeding if the top 3 win out.

Top Eight Seeds
1. North Dakota State (12-0)
2. Montana (12-0)
3. Tarleton State (12-0)
4. North Dakota (9-3)
5. Lehigh (12-0)
6. Monmouth (11-1)
7. Tennessee Tech (11-1)
8. Rhode Island (10-2)
Click to expand...
That is absolutely ridiculous, but par for the course with Stan lol
 
Team10 said:
By Sagarin ratings Tarleton is 73 and Montana is 70, UND 74, and Army 86. Nobody is seriously outranking the other like you might expect, currently. In three weeks that could and should change.
Click to expand...
Montana is 89 in Sagarin, not 70.
 
horribilisfan8184 said:
Here's how Sam Becton sees the seeding if the top 3 win out.

Top Eight Seeds
1. North Dakota State (12-0)
2. Montana (12-0)
3. Tarleton State (12-0)
4. North Dakota (9-3)
5. Lehigh (12-0)
6. Monmouth (11-1)
7. Tennessee Tech (11-1)
8. Rhode Island (10-2)
Click to expand...
Dude is an absolute rage/click bait machine. It's how he is able to afford rent every month because of all the engagement he creates from his garbage hot takes.
 
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