IdaGriz01
Well-known member
In one sense, my guesses for last week were not too bad: Eleven of the 25 on the nose and 19 of 25 within one or two. But my bads were really bad, suggesting that the pollsters have changed their behavior in some important ways from past years.
I thought South Dakota State would drop a lot more than they did (prediction of #10, only fell to #6) and MSU a lot less (guess of #7, fell to #11). I expected Stony Brook to drop a lot (to #22), but still be ranked … but they fell out of the top 25. (They did receive the second-most votes of those not making it into the rankings.)
With five teams in the top ten losing (some to ranked opponents, of course) this week, we can expect a fair amount of re-arrangement there.
Now that the teams have completed four or five games, the pollsters tend to pay more attention to overall records, and less to early-season upsets. (This has been true in the past, anyway.) Because of that, it seems entirely possible that EWU may well drop out of the top ten. Their 2-2 record sticks out like a sore thumb, and that opening-game FBS upset could lose out to: “What have you done for me lately?”
I know it seems bizarre that my guesses have the Griz above NAU, despite Saturday’s result. But I dropped UM by 8 slots (which is a lot) and bumped NAU up by 6 (also a lot). Now perhaps this year is different, but it’s been very common in the past for the pollsters to do stuff like this. It’s also why this is done in fun, to provide talking fodder, and no one should take it all too seriously. (Arguing over “predictions” sure seems like more fun than venting about woulda-coulda-shouldas in the last game.)
Poll Guess, Team (Record), [Last Rank]
1 NDSU (4-0) [1]
2 Towson (5-0) [3]
3 Sam Houston State (4-1) [4]
4 Northern Iowa (4-0) [5]
5 Eastern Illinois (4-1) [8]
6 Montana State (3-2) [11]
7 Eastern Washington (2-2) [2]
8 Coastal Carolina (5-0) [12]
9 South Dakota State (3-1) [6]
10 Ga Southern (3-1) [15]
11 Central Arkansas (2-2) [13]
12 McNeese (4-1) [9]
13 Fordham (5-0) [16]
14 New Hampshire (1-2) [10]
15 Montana (3-1) [7]
16 Lehigh (4-0) [21]
17 Wofford (2-2) [17]
18 Northern Arizona (3-1) [24]
19 Cal Poly (2-2) [18]
20 Villanova (2-2) [19]
21 Bethune-Cookman (3-1) [20]
22 James Madison (3-2) [14]
23 Tennessee-Martin (3-1) [23]
24 Maine (4-1) 271 [NR]
25 Gardner-Webb (4-1) [25]
NR Richmond (2-3) [22]
I thought South Dakota State would drop a lot more than they did (prediction of #10, only fell to #6) and MSU a lot less (guess of #7, fell to #11). I expected Stony Brook to drop a lot (to #22), but still be ranked … but they fell out of the top 25. (They did receive the second-most votes of those not making it into the rankings.)
With five teams in the top ten losing (some to ranked opponents, of course) this week, we can expect a fair amount of re-arrangement there.
Now that the teams have completed four or five games, the pollsters tend to pay more attention to overall records, and less to early-season upsets. (This has been true in the past, anyway.) Because of that, it seems entirely possible that EWU may well drop out of the top ten. Their 2-2 record sticks out like a sore thumb, and that opening-game FBS upset could lose out to: “What have you done for me lately?”
I know it seems bizarre that my guesses have the Griz above NAU, despite Saturday’s result. But I dropped UM by 8 slots (which is a lot) and bumped NAU up by 6 (also a lot). Now perhaps this year is different, but it’s been very common in the past for the pollsters to do stuff like this. It’s also why this is done in fun, to provide talking fodder, and no one should take it all too seriously. (Arguing over “predictions” sure seems like more fun than venting about woulda-coulda-shouldas in the last game.)
Poll Guess, Team (Record), [Last Rank]
1 NDSU (4-0) [1]
2 Towson (5-0) [3]
3 Sam Houston State (4-1) [4]
4 Northern Iowa (4-0) [5]
5 Eastern Illinois (4-1) [8]
6 Montana State (3-2) [11]
7 Eastern Washington (2-2) [2]
8 Coastal Carolina (5-0) [12]
9 South Dakota State (3-1) [6]
10 Ga Southern (3-1) [15]
11 Central Arkansas (2-2) [13]
12 McNeese (4-1) [9]
13 Fordham (5-0) [16]
14 New Hampshire (1-2) [10]
15 Montana (3-1) [7]
16 Lehigh (4-0) [21]
17 Wofford (2-2) [17]
18 Northern Arizona (3-1) [24]
19 Cal Poly (2-2) [18]
20 Villanova (2-2) [19]
21 Bethune-Cookman (3-1) [20]
22 James Madison (3-2) [14]
23 Tennessee-Martin (3-1) [23]
24 Maine (4-1) 271 [NR]
25 Gardner-Webb (4-1) [25]
NR Richmond (2-3) [22]
