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Poll Guesses (Sept 30)

IdaGriz01

Well-known member
In one sense, my guesses for last week were not too bad: Eleven of the 25 on the nose and 19 of 25 within one or two. But my bads were really bad, suggesting that the pollsters have changed their behavior in some important ways from past years.
I thought South Dakota State would drop a lot more than they did (prediction of #10, only fell to #6) and MSU a lot less (guess of #7, fell to #11). I expected Stony Brook to drop a lot (to #22), but still be ranked … but they fell out of the top 25. (They did receive the second-most votes of those not making it into the rankings.)

With five teams in the top ten losing (some to ranked opponents, of course) this week, we can expect a fair amount of re-arrangement there.

Now that the teams have completed four or five games, the pollsters tend to pay more attention to overall records, and less to early-season upsets. (This has been true in the past, anyway.) Because of that, it seems entirely possible that EWU may well drop out of the top ten. Their 2-2 record sticks out like a sore thumb, and that opening-game FBS upset could lose out to: “What have you done for me lately?”

I know it seems bizarre that my guesses have the Griz above NAU, despite Saturday’s result. But I dropped UM by 8 slots (which is a lot) and bumped NAU up by 6 (also a lot). Now perhaps this year is different, but it’s been very common in the past for the pollsters to do stuff like this. It’s also why this is done in fun, to provide talking fodder, and no one should take it all too seriously. (Arguing over “predictions” sure seems like more fun than venting about woulda-coulda-shouldas in the last game.)

Poll Guess, Team (Record), [Last Rank]
1 NDSU (4-0) [1]
2 Towson (5-0) [3]
3 Sam Houston State (4-1) [4]
4 Northern Iowa (4-0) [5]
5 Eastern Illinois (4-1) [8]
6 Montana State (3-2) [11]
7 Eastern Washington (2-2) [2]
8 Coastal Carolina (5-0) [12]
9 South Dakota State (3-1) [6]
10 Ga Southern (3-1) [15]
11 Central Arkansas (2-2) [13]
12 McNeese (4-1) [9]
13 Fordham (5-0) [16]
14 New Hampshire (1-2) [10]
15 Montana (3-1) [7]
16 Lehigh (4-0) [21]
17 Wofford (2-2) [17]
18 Northern Arizona (3-1) [24]
19 Cal Poly (2-2) [18]
20 Villanova (2-2) [19]
21 Bethune-Cookman (3-1) [20]
22 James Madison (3-2) [14]
23 Tennessee-Martin (3-1) [23]
24 Maine (4-1) 271 [NR]
25 Gardner-Webb (4-1) [25]

NR Richmond (2-3) [22]
 
So no one wants to take issue with about my guesses. That might mean taking the polls seriously ... I get it. But surely someone would like to bitch about Maine (4-1), which beat Richmond, as a newbie in the "guesses poll" instead of Delaware (4-1, also), who beat JMU.
 
It's crazy that MSU lost to an unranked team (that just lost to goddamn Prairie View A&M :roll: ) and would be ahead of us, who lost to a ranked NAU team.

I'd say UM is around 12, and MSU is around 15.
 
uofmman1122 said:
It's crazy that MSU lost to an unranked team (that just lost to goddamn Prairie View A&M :roll: ) and would be ahead of us, who lost to a ranked NAU team.

I'd say UM is around 12, and MSU is around 15.

Ummm, MSU won this week and will gain a couple of spots. Griz lost this week and will drop at least for spots. That's how polls work outside of the greater Missoula area. Not that it matters as neither team has played anyone of note.



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bobcatOninetails said:
uofmman1122 said:
It's crazy that MSU lost to an unranked team [ :?: ] (that just lost to goddamn Prairie View A&M :roll: ) and would be ahead of us, who lost to a ranked NAU team.

I'd say UM is around 12, and MSU is around 15.
Ummm, MSU won this week and will gain a couple of spots. Griz lost this week and will drop at least for [edit "four"?] spots. That's how polls work outside of the greater Missoula area. Not that it matters as neither team has played anyone of note.
I have no idea what 1122 is smoking ... but it must be really good s**t. :lol:

With all the losses in the top ten, I figured MSU should move comfortably back above #10. The Griz may not drop as far as I moved them, but I'd rather guess too low than too high.
 
uofmman1122 said:
It's crazy that MSU lost to an unranked team (that just lost to goddamn Prairie View A&M :roll: ) and would be ahead of us, who lost to a ranked NAU team.

I'd say UM is around 12, and MSU is around 15.
its called a Bobcat hangover
 
Griz fall four at the most. Lost to a ranked team on the road. It's not like they got rolled in Pocatello.



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bobcatOninetails said:
Griz fall four at the most. Lost to a ranked team on the road. It's not like they got rolled in Pocatello.
By my usual "formula" (mostly from last year), I would agree with you -- a drop of 4 or 5 spots. However, the pollsters this year seem to be giving at least a passing look at the quality of a team's opposition. The first time the Griz played a credible opponent, they lost. Not good, and could hurt their poll standing.

Aside to "mcg": If poll voting made any sense, NAU should indeed rank higher that the Griz. But over the years, we've seen a huge number of cases where the polls totally ignored that kind of face-to-face result. Be interesting to see if that changes this year.
 
I understand and agree, but it doesn't make a lot of sense if NAU is ranked below the Griz, which might lead one to question whether the whole poll system makes a lot of sense.

this is the beauty of playoff football, in the final analysis the polls don't matter.
 
uofmman1122 said:
It's crazy that MSU lost to an unranked team (that just lost to goddamn Prairie View A&M :roll: ) and would be ahead of us, who lost to a ranked NAU team.

I'd say UM is around 12, and MSU is around 15.

Very easy, to different teams, people are smart enough to realize the injuries were the issue at SFA. If DM played it is a different outcome, proven by the comeback game against UND, or half game he played.

If UM had played anyone of any reverence in your first games we could let you slide on the NAU loss. Unfortunately that is not the case. App State losing again along with the loss to NAU really hurts. Three cupcakes and a loss show the true colors.

Polls are just opinions. Nobody is right or wrong.


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Robsnotes4u said:
uofmman1122 said:
It's crazy that MSU lost to an unranked team (that just lost to goddamn Prairie View A&M :roll: ) and would be ahead of us, who lost to a ranked NAU team.

I'd say UM is around 12, and MSU is around 15.

Very easy, to different teams, people are smart enough to realize the injuries were the issue at SFA. If DM played it is a different outcome, proven by the comeback game against UND, or half game he played.

If UM had played anyone of any reverence in your first games we could let you slide on the NAU loss. Unfortunately that is not the case. App State losing again along with the loss to NAU really hurts. Three cupcakes and a loss show the true colors.

Polls are just opinions. Nobody is right or wrong.


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See, this is just bullshit.

The Cats have played one decent team, and they lost. So have we.

They also lost to an extremely bad team. We haven't.

Injuries are part of the game, and Denarius McGhee wouldn't have prevented SFA from hanging 52 on the Cats.

Neither team, in my opinion, has any bones to be complaining about not being in the top 10 at this point, but I also haven't seen anything that says the Cats are better right now.

If the cats paste NAU, then go ahead and crow then, but until that happens there's literally no case to definitively say MSU is better than us right now. :coffee:
 
Wow, I my “formulas” for guessing the polls sure got hammered this time. :oops: :oops:

I did have 20 out of 25 on the nose (10) or pretty close. But I thought sure they’d zing the Griz way more than they did (I’m glad of that, of course), yet they whacked New Hampshire even worse than I expected. Of course, UNH now has a losing record, but that hasn’t mattered so much in the past. Also, while I expected JMU to drop a lot after their loss, I thought they’d hang on at something like #22. I suppose the pollsters wanted to make room to include Delaware (which is actually a good thing). At least I got it right dropping Richmond from the top-25. ;)

I probably should bag this notion (no doubt pleasing some of you out there), but my wife says I should tweak my formulas and maybe give it one more try. We’ll see.
 
uofmman1122 said:
Robsnotes4u said:
uofmman1122 said:
It's crazy that MSU lost to an unranked team (that just lost to goddamn Prairie View A&M :roll: ) and would be ahead of us, who lost to a ranked NAU team.

I'd say UM is around 12, and MSU is around 15.

Very easy, to different teams, people are smart enough to realize the injuries were the issue at SFA. If DM played it is a different outcome, proven by the comeback game against UND, or half game he played.

If UM had played anyone of any reverence in your first games we could let you slide on the NAU loss. Unfortunately that is not the case. App State losing again along with the loss to NAU really hurts. Three cupcakes and a loss show the true colors.

Polls are just opinions. Nobody is right or wrong.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD
See, this is just bullshit.

The Cats have played one decent team, and they lost. So have we.

They also lost to an extremely bad team. We haven't.

Injuries are part of the game, and Denarius McGhee wouldn't have prevented SFA from hanging 52 on the Cats.

Neither team, in my opinion, has any bones to be complaining about not being in the top 10 at this point, but I also haven't seen anything that says the Cats are better right now.

If the cats paste NAU, then go ahead and crow then, but until that happens there's literally no case to definitively say MSU is better than us right now. :coffee:

Guess you were wrong, UM is at 10, better than you thought. I guess you would think that after you got pasted by NAU they should be higher than you. I wonder if they have ever given the national championship trophy to the team that loses.

I will help you out here. NAU is better than the Griz that but was rated lower, that is why the did the same thing for the Griz being rated better than the Cats.
 
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