An update to my post last week with the results from this last weekend. Some highlights:
- EWU basically clinches Big Sky AQ. Even if they lose one of their games, they hold the tiebreakers.
- Maine basically clinches CAA AQ. They are 2 up in the loss column with only two games left.
- UNH with a convincing win over JMU. CAA beating itself up, and may cost them a playoff team.
- Charleston Southern with a big win over Coastal Carolina. Two teams likely coming out of Big South now.
- Fordham hangs on again this weekend. They sure aren't looking too convincing, but wins are wins.
- Samford drops another one to Furman essentially eliminating their playoff hopes.
- Chattanooga one step closer to SOCON AQ after beating Wofford.
- SIU drops the game to red hot Missouri State. Can't get to 7 D-I wins.
- W&M with another nice showing against Delaware. Their resume only keeps getting better.
- Jacksonville State with a statement victory over EKU. They now look like the at-large team for the OVC.
- Bethune-Cookman trips up against Norfolk State. They still have the tiebreaker over SC State though.
- UNI finally wins a close game! And over strong competition in YSU. Don't sleep on UNI getting in the playoffs.
- SE Louisiana rolls Central Arkansas to likely seal up a playoff spot.
- Cal Poly stays alive with a dominating win over Sacramento State.
To start limiting the picture:
- The PFL and NEC will only get one team. Both conferences have some interesting AQ races, but all that matters is these two conferences will only take up 2 playoff spots.
- Sacred Heart with a big win over Duquesne. If they can beat RMU this weekend, it puts them in nice position.
- San Diego locks up the PFL AQ if they beat Drake this weekend.
LOCKS Probably already done enough to ensure a spot.
North Dakota State: GPI 1, SRS 1 (MVFC AQ)
Eastern Illinois: GPI 2, SRS 2 (OVC AQ)
Eastern Washington: GPI 3, SRS 4 (BSkC AQ)
Maine: GPI 4, SRS 10 (CAA AQ)
SE Louisiana: GPI 5, SRS 3 (SLC AQ)
Sam Houston State: GPI 6, SRS 15
McNeese State: GPI 7, SRS 7
Towson: GPI 9, SRS 6
Other AQs (7 AQs Accounted For, 4 left)
SOCON: Chattanooga: GPI 29, SRS 24 Win over Samford this weekend locks up the AQ.
MEAC: Bethune-Cookman: GPI 19, SRS 26 A really bad loss to Norfolk State doesn't mean the Hampton game is a gimme anymore. South Carolina State is rooting for the Pirates to open up the door for them to steal the AQ.
Patriot: Lehigh: GPI 41, SRS 61 If they close with wins over Colgate & Lafayette, they take the AQ.
Big South: Charleston Southern: GPI 32, SRS 56 Won the game they needed to get the Big South AQ. If Liberty can knock off CSU, Coastal Carolina would have the tiebreaker with Sagarin rating. So all bubble teams should be Liberty fans on November 23.
Note that Fordham cannot earn the AQ for the Patriot this year, but they can get an at-large bid.
On the Right Side of Bubble 14 Spots Gone, 10 to Go
Fordham: GPI 8, SRS 25 Survived another close game this weekend. But probably only a one win split away from locking up a playoff spot.
Youngstown State: GPI 10, SRS 14 A tough loss to UNI is a setback, and now they have NDSU next. If they can win that one, they could potentially steal the AQ. Then they close with SDSU. Even with ending on a 3 game losing streak, you would think an 8-4 MVFC team is in the field.
Montana: GPI 11, SRS 17 Another big road victory for the Griz has them climbing the GPI. Finally get an easier home matchup against Weber - and that should seal their way into the playoff field.
Coastal Carolina: GPI 12, SRS 9 The loss to Charleston Southern was costly to their ratings, but if they win out, they are definitely still part of the playoff field.
William & Mary: GPI 13, SRS 11 They keep piling on the wins. Split against Towson/Richmond and they should be in.
Northern Arizona: GPI 14, SRS 30 That's nice. Have a bye week and see your stock jump up. Win out and a 9-2 NAU should definitely be in the field at this point.
South Dakota State: GPI 16, SRS 18 If they can post a nice win in Vermillion like the Griz did last weekend, they will get to 7 D-I wins and solidify a top 15 GPI. I think at 7-5, they will get in now that SIU can't get there.
Jacksonville State: GPI 17, SRS 16 A major jump up in the rankings as they annihilate EKU. A tough matchup against EIU this weekend, and then they close with SEMO. At 9-3 after the statement win this weekend, I think the Gamecocks are the 2nd OVC to get in the field.
Northern Iowa: GPI 20, SRS 8 A big win over YSU is enough to start forgetting about the 5 game skid. They have the hot Missouri State next, and then close with WIU. Similar to SDSU, a 7-5 UNI has a strong argument for making the field.
Montana State: GPI 21, SRS 27 The Cats just keep tumbling. At this point, they really need to beat the Griz to stamp their way in the playoffs. If they go 8-4, and it's between 8-4 MSU vs 7-5 UNI or SDSU - I wouldn't be surprised if the committee goes with the MVFC teams.
Still Alive Control their own destiny.
Tennessee-Martin: GPI 30, SRS 32 Despite the loss to Memphis, UT Martin can still make the playoffs if they can take down EIU and EKU to close out their season. That would be two very nice wins to close out, and would likely be the third OVC team in the playoffs.
Delaware: GPI 35, SRS 47 A setback against W&M, but if they can close out with wins against Richmond and Villanova, that may be enough to get in. A 9-3 CAA team would have a decent argument to snag a 4th playoff spot out of this conference.
On the Outside Need some bubble teams to lose.
Tennessee State: GPI 24, SRS 23 Thanks to the losses of other bubble teams, TSU may just have an outside chance of making the playoffs. They close with Murray State, which would get them to 9-3 and maybe even hold onto a top 25 GPI.
Cal Poly: GPI 27, SRS 21 Major improvements for their rankings this week. They still probably need someone else to lose a game above though as the best they can do is 7-5.
New Hampshire: GPI 31, SRS 22 With a possible statement game against Maine to close the season, New Hampshire does have an outside chance to get in if they can win their last 2 games. However, at 7-4, they'll probably need some other teams above to lose.
Eastern Kentucky: GPI 33, SRS 35 The biggest drop of the week. After getting embarrassed against Jacksonville State, I'm not sure that winning out will be enough to push EKU into the playoffs.
South Carolina State: GPI 34, SRS 31 Renewed hope after the Bethune Cookman loss, but they still need them to drop one more. They probably will finish 9-3 though, so with enough teams dropping above, they could slide in.
James Madison: GPI 36, SRS 36 The loss to UNH stings, and they definitely need to beat Stony Brook and Towson to have a chance. Even if they win out and go 8-4, they'll need some teams to drop games listed above.
Southern Utah: GPI 37, SRS 53 MSU and NAU don't appear to be the big ratings boosters that SUU would have needed to take a playoff spot at this point. If they win out and go 9-3, I think the Big Sky may only send EWU/UM unless some other potential playoff teams lose.
Samford: GPI 38, SRS 28 Back to back losses have the Bulldogs reeling, and it is difficult to see them turning it around. They do have Chattanooga up next and have the win over Wofford - so perhaps a longshot AQ hope still?
Likely Out It would be a surprise to see them in the playoffs at this point.
Wofford: GPI 48, SRS 40 Back to back losses, but still getting poll votes for some reason. They can still get to 7 D-I wins, but even then, their resume is weak this year.
- EWU basically clinches Big Sky AQ. Even if they lose one of their games, they hold the tiebreakers.
- Maine basically clinches CAA AQ. They are 2 up in the loss column with only two games left.
- UNH with a convincing win over JMU. CAA beating itself up, and may cost them a playoff team.
- Charleston Southern with a big win over Coastal Carolina. Two teams likely coming out of Big South now.
- Fordham hangs on again this weekend. They sure aren't looking too convincing, but wins are wins.
- Samford drops another one to Furman essentially eliminating their playoff hopes.
- Chattanooga one step closer to SOCON AQ after beating Wofford.
- SIU drops the game to red hot Missouri State. Can't get to 7 D-I wins.
- W&M with another nice showing against Delaware. Their resume only keeps getting better.
- Jacksonville State with a statement victory over EKU. They now look like the at-large team for the OVC.
- Bethune-Cookman trips up against Norfolk State. They still have the tiebreaker over SC State though.
- UNI finally wins a close game! And over strong competition in YSU. Don't sleep on UNI getting in the playoffs.
- SE Louisiana rolls Central Arkansas to likely seal up a playoff spot.
- Cal Poly stays alive with a dominating win over Sacramento State.
To start limiting the picture:
- The PFL and NEC will only get one team. Both conferences have some interesting AQ races, but all that matters is these two conferences will only take up 2 playoff spots.
- Sacred Heart with a big win over Duquesne. If they can beat RMU this weekend, it puts them in nice position.
- San Diego locks up the PFL AQ if they beat Drake this weekend.
LOCKS Probably already done enough to ensure a spot.
North Dakota State: GPI 1, SRS 1 (MVFC AQ)
Eastern Illinois: GPI 2, SRS 2 (OVC AQ)
Eastern Washington: GPI 3, SRS 4 (BSkC AQ)
Maine: GPI 4, SRS 10 (CAA AQ)
SE Louisiana: GPI 5, SRS 3 (SLC AQ)
Sam Houston State: GPI 6, SRS 15
McNeese State: GPI 7, SRS 7
Towson: GPI 9, SRS 6
Other AQs (7 AQs Accounted For, 4 left)
SOCON: Chattanooga: GPI 29, SRS 24 Win over Samford this weekend locks up the AQ.
MEAC: Bethune-Cookman: GPI 19, SRS 26 A really bad loss to Norfolk State doesn't mean the Hampton game is a gimme anymore. South Carolina State is rooting for the Pirates to open up the door for them to steal the AQ.
Patriot: Lehigh: GPI 41, SRS 61 If they close with wins over Colgate & Lafayette, they take the AQ.
Big South: Charleston Southern: GPI 32, SRS 56 Won the game they needed to get the Big South AQ. If Liberty can knock off CSU, Coastal Carolina would have the tiebreaker with Sagarin rating. So all bubble teams should be Liberty fans on November 23.
Note that Fordham cannot earn the AQ for the Patriot this year, but they can get an at-large bid.
On the Right Side of Bubble 14 Spots Gone, 10 to Go
Fordham: GPI 8, SRS 25 Survived another close game this weekend. But probably only a one win split away from locking up a playoff spot.
Youngstown State: GPI 10, SRS 14 A tough loss to UNI is a setback, and now they have NDSU next. If they can win that one, they could potentially steal the AQ. Then they close with SDSU. Even with ending on a 3 game losing streak, you would think an 8-4 MVFC team is in the field.
Montana: GPI 11, SRS 17 Another big road victory for the Griz has them climbing the GPI. Finally get an easier home matchup against Weber - and that should seal their way into the playoff field.
Coastal Carolina: GPI 12, SRS 9 The loss to Charleston Southern was costly to their ratings, but if they win out, they are definitely still part of the playoff field.
William & Mary: GPI 13, SRS 11 They keep piling on the wins. Split against Towson/Richmond and they should be in.
Northern Arizona: GPI 14, SRS 30 That's nice. Have a bye week and see your stock jump up. Win out and a 9-2 NAU should definitely be in the field at this point.
South Dakota State: GPI 16, SRS 18 If they can post a nice win in Vermillion like the Griz did last weekend, they will get to 7 D-I wins and solidify a top 15 GPI. I think at 7-5, they will get in now that SIU can't get there.
Jacksonville State: GPI 17, SRS 16 A major jump up in the rankings as they annihilate EKU. A tough matchup against EIU this weekend, and then they close with SEMO. At 9-3 after the statement win this weekend, I think the Gamecocks are the 2nd OVC to get in the field.
Northern Iowa: GPI 20, SRS 8 A big win over YSU is enough to start forgetting about the 5 game skid. They have the hot Missouri State next, and then close with WIU. Similar to SDSU, a 7-5 UNI has a strong argument for making the field.
Montana State: GPI 21, SRS 27 The Cats just keep tumbling. At this point, they really need to beat the Griz to stamp their way in the playoffs. If they go 8-4, and it's between 8-4 MSU vs 7-5 UNI or SDSU - I wouldn't be surprised if the committee goes with the MVFC teams.
Still Alive Control their own destiny.
Tennessee-Martin: GPI 30, SRS 32 Despite the loss to Memphis, UT Martin can still make the playoffs if they can take down EIU and EKU to close out their season. That would be two very nice wins to close out, and would likely be the third OVC team in the playoffs.
Delaware: GPI 35, SRS 47 A setback against W&M, but if they can close out with wins against Richmond and Villanova, that may be enough to get in. A 9-3 CAA team would have a decent argument to snag a 4th playoff spot out of this conference.
On the Outside Need some bubble teams to lose.
Tennessee State: GPI 24, SRS 23 Thanks to the losses of other bubble teams, TSU may just have an outside chance of making the playoffs. They close with Murray State, which would get them to 9-3 and maybe even hold onto a top 25 GPI.
Cal Poly: GPI 27, SRS 21 Major improvements for their rankings this week. They still probably need someone else to lose a game above though as the best they can do is 7-5.
New Hampshire: GPI 31, SRS 22 With a possible statement game against Maine to close the season, New Hampshire does have an outside chance to get in if they can win their last 2 games. However, at 7-4, they'll probably need some other teams above to lose.
Eastern Kentucky: GPI 33, SRS 35 The biggest drop of the week. After getting embarrassed against Jacksonville State, I'm not sure that winning out will be enough to push EKU into the playoffs.
South Carolina State: GPI 34, SRS 31 Renewed hope after the Bethune Cookman loss, but they still need them to drop one more. They probably will finish 9-3 though, so with enough teams dropping above, they could slide in.
James Madison: GPI 36, SRS 36 The loss to UNH stings, and they definitely need to beat Stony Brook and Towson to have a chance. Even if they win out and go 8-4, they'll need some teams to drop games listed above.
Southern Utah: GPI 37, SRS 53 MSU and NAU don't appear to be the big ratings boosters that SUU would have needed to take a playoff spot at this point. If they win out and go 9-3, I think the Big Sky may only send EWU/UM unless some other potential playoff teams lose.
Samford: GPI 38, SRS 28 Back to back losses have the Bulldogs reeling, and it is difficult to see them turning it around. They do have Chattanooga up next and have the win over Wofford - so perhaps a longshot AQ hope still?
Likely Out It would be a surprise to see them in the playoffs at this point.
Wofford: GPI 48, SRS 40 Back to back losses, but still getting poll votes for some reason. They can still get to 7 D-I wins, but even then, their resume is weak this year.
