Playoff Game #1

[AZGrizFan]

Great so now that you graced us with all that pent up knowledge and that amazing timelined wit why not jump in that white Lexus and drive your Mariani poster around the parking lot and shout from the top of your lungs "I really am a Griz Fan."

Why do you hate knowledge and reality?

Are you going to USD, or maybe Fargo when the Griz win the first round game?


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If, by some chance, the Griz win out, there's no WAY they are on the road in the 2nd round. Take that to the bank.

I will agree unless The Griz second game is against the Bison, then they will be on the road. Guaranteed.


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If the Griz win out, they WILL be seeded. Thus, 2nd round game at HOME. Bank it. :thumb:

 

[AZGrizFan]

I grew up in Montana. My dad is a bobcat, lived in Bozeman when he went to college. My wife went to Missoula. I went to UND. We live in Fargo, but we were excited to see the Sioux enter the big sky so we could see both Montana teams play. So yes I am a Sioux.

Sweet Jesus, man. Sounds like an identity crisis. There's counseling for that, you know?

 

[Robsnotes4u]

Why do you hate knowledge and reality?

Are you going to USD, or maybe Fargo when the Griz win the first round game?


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If, by some chance, the Griz win out, there's no WAY they are on the road in the 2nd round. Take that to the bank.

I will agree unless The Griz second game is against the Bison, then they will be on the road. Guaranteed.


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If the Griz win out, they WILL be seeded. Thus, 2nd round game at HOME. Bank it. :thumb:

Who are the rest of the seeds? Why does Montana deserve one, or anyone else in the BSC beside the AQ?


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[Robsnotes4u]

I grew up in Montana. My dad is a bobcat, lived in Bozeman when he went to college. My wife went to Missoula. I went to UND. We live in Fargo, but we were excited to see the Sioux enter the big sky so we could see both Montana teams play. So yes I am a Sioux.

Sweet Jesus, man. Sounds like an identity crisis. There's counseling for that, you know?

I think you are doing fine counseling me, where do I send the check?


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[Robsnotes4u]

Why do you hate knowledge and reality?

Are you going to USD, or maybe Fargo when the Griz win the first round game?


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If, by some chance, the Griz win out, there's no WAY they are on the road in the 2nd round. Take that to the bank.

I will agree unless The Griz second game is against the Bison, then they will be on the road. Guaranteed.


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If the Griz win out, they WILL be seeded. Thus, 2nd round game at HOME. Bank it. :thumb:

So the Griz beat the cats. Check. EWU crushes the cats, because they can't possibly beat a team the Griz lost to. NAU wins out, which they should. Griz win out.

EWU undefeated in BSC and one lose to FBS and one to high ranked team. Head to head win over Griz. Automatic bid. More than likely a seed. Signature win over OSU

NAU one loss in BSC to MSU who was rated and an additional loss to a FBS team. Win in head to head over the Griz. Signature win over Griz

Griz two loses in BSC, both teams above finish higher than them in BSC. Signature win over MSU who sucks because they are not the Griz.

You look everywhere and they figure one seeded team out of the BSC. Can you find any reason besides we are the Griz that says you get a seed?

Don't say we beat the cats, because they aren't good, with losses to SFA, SMU, EWU, and the Griz.

I wonder what AGS says.




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[profisme]

Lets just win this weekend and go from there. But if the cats beat ewu and we win out and don't get a seed I will be surprised.

I agree with that statement. If the Griz win out, they will almost certainly get seeded at 10-2 even though, depending on how things go with NAU and EWU, they won't be in the conference title picture. Now, if EWU ends up at 9-3 and the Griz end up at 10-2, I still believe EWU gets a seed before UM based on SOS and quality wins. Their Oregon State win will still count big in the eyes of the committee.

 

[profisme]

Also, this new bsc is complete horse shit...Griz and scats have to deal with two teams fighting for playoff spots and position that don't even play each other. Another loss for nau or ewu is a big deal right now.

Also, ewu and scats get und as a conf. game while um doesn't. Scats get unc while griz get cal poly...

It's just f***[*] weird and it makes for a joke of a conference...

Is there another conference where everybody doesn't play everybody, and there are not two divisions, and there is no conference championship game? Serious question.

The old CAA had too many teams for them to play each other. Since 1-AA has the playoffs though, the NCAA won't allow for two separate divisions leading to a conference championship game.

 

[AZGrizFan]

So the Griz beat the cats. Check. EWU crushes the cats, because they can't possibly beat a team the Griz lost to. NAU wins out, which they should. Griz win out.

EWU undefeated in BSC and one lose to FBS and one to high ranked team. Head to head win over Griz. Automatic bid. More than likely a seed. Signature win over OSU

NAU one loss in BSC to MSU who was rated and an additional loss to a FBS team. Win in head to head over the Griz. Signature win over Griz

Griz two loses in BSC, both teams above finish higher than them in BSC. Signature win over MSU who sucks because they are not the Griz.

You look everywhere and they figure one seeded team out of the BSC. Can you find any reason besides we are the Griz that says you get a seed?

Don't say we beat the cats, because they aren't good, with losses to SFA, SMU, EWU, and the Griz.

In your scenario:

#1 NDSU
#2 EWU
#3 Maine
#4 EIU (which I think is a mistake, but think will happen)
#5 Fordham (I'm ok with that)
#6 Coastal (another HUGE mistake)
#7 YSU
#8 Griz

Last 2 seeds would be between YSU, Towson/UD UM and NAU. I firmly believe a 10-2 Griz team is seeded over a 9-2 NAU team, despite the head-to-head win. Both Towson & UD have killer schedules coming down the stretch and YSU still has NDSU, UNI and SDSU to play.

If Coastal beats Charleston Southern, I honestly believe CSU is staying home for the playoffs, or at best is in a play-in game. If CSU beats Coastal, the Big South may not have a seed.

I don't see a Southern Conf team being seeded.

Essentially, the final 6-8 teams battling for the last 4 seeds ALL have extremely tough schedules coming down the stretch. It's going to be REAL interesting the next three weekends...

 

[tnt]

Lets just win this weekend and go from there. But if the cats beat ewu and we win out and don't get a seed I will be surprised.

I agree with that statement. If the Griz win out, they will almost certainly get seeded at 10-2 even though, depending on how things go with NAU and EWU, they won't be in the conference title picture. Now, if EWU ends up at 9-3 and the Griz end up at 10-2, I still believe EWU gets a seed before UM based on SOS and quality wins. Their Oregon State win will still count big in the eyes of the committee.

After the autobid, it then becomes a question of how many teams come out of the BSC 2 is certain, 3 doubtful and 4 a dream. In almost every scenario comparing common opponents even at 10-2 UM becomes the 3 rd or 4th team unless either EWU, the cats or NAU totally collapse. making the playoffs is the first challenge. Seeding may follow a different set of rules once the teams are in but they have to get there first. Its not unlikley that NAU will get the autobid......

 

[AZGrizFan]

Its not unlikley that NAU will get the autobid......

I would take that bet for any amount of money.

There is no WAY NAU is getting the autobid.

 

[jodcon]

Here are the FCS SRS Ratings as of today, also the formula used to calculate SRS.

http://www.footballperspective.com/non-fbs-college-football-ratings-through-10-weeks/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

As a reminder, here’s the system for producing SRS ratings.
1) For each game not played at a neutral site, 3 points are given to the road team. After that adjustment, all wins and losses of between 7 and 24 points are recorded exactly as such. This means that a 24-10 road win goes down as +17 for the road team, -17 for the home team.

2) With one exception, wins of 7 or fewer points are scored as 7-point wins and losses of 7 or fewer points are scored as 7 point losses. So a 4-point home win goes down as +7 (and not a 1) and a 1-point home loss is a -7 (and not a -4). The one exception is that road losses of 3 or fewer (and home wins of 3 or fewer) are graded as ties. So a 21-20 home victory goes down as a 0 for both teams.

3) Wins/Losses of more than 24 points are scored as the average between the actual number and 24. This is to avoid giving undue credit to teams that run up the score. So a 75-point home win goes down as a 48-point win.

Once we have a rating for each team in each game, we then adjust each result for strength of schedule. This is an iterative process, where we adjust the ratings hundreds of times (to adjust for SOS, you have to adjust for the SOS of each opponent, and the SOS of each opponent’s opponent, and so on.) in Excel. Then we produce final ratings, where the SRS rating is the sum of the Margin of Victory and Strength of Schedule in every week.

 

[qwerty15ster]

Ok guys, I'm new to this.

What exactly will being seeded get the Griz? How many first round byes will there be? Who is this magical being that determines all of these things? What factors do they consider for teams to make the playoffs?

Thanks. This post has been fairly helpful for understanding the playoffs already.

 

[jodcon]

Ok guys, I'm new to this.

What exactly will being seeded get the Griz? How many first round byes will there be? Who is this magical being that determines all of these things? What factors do they consider for teams to make the playoffs?

Thanks. This post has been fairly helpful for understanding the playoffs already.

Being seeded gets you a first round bye and your first game at home, if you are seeded 1-4 you would get your first two at home (if you win obviously and if you pony up the money, which is a no-brainer). There are 8 seeded teams with first round byes. At this point the Griz are not in great position for a bye, if they win out and other things happen they could possibly slide into the 6-8 slot.

 

[qwerty15ster]

Ok guys, I'm new to this.

What exactly will being seeded get the Griz? How many first round byes will there be? Who is this magical being that determines all of these things? What factors do they consider for teams to make the playoffs?

Thanks. This post has been fairly helpful for understanding the playoffs already.

Being seeded gets you a first round bye and your first game at home, if you are seeded 1-4 you would get your first two at home (if you win obviously and if you pony up the money, which is a no-brainer). There are 8 seeded teams with first round byes. At this point the Griz are not in great position for a bye, if they win out and other things happen they could possibly slide into the 6-8 slot.

Thanks. That was helpful!

Go Griz!

 

[Robsnotes4u]

So the Griz beat the cats. Check. EWU crushes the cats, because they can't possibly beat a team the Griz lost to. NAU wins out, which they should. Griz win out.

EWU undefeated in BSC and one lose to FBS and one to high ranked team. Head to head win over Griz. Automatic bid. More than likely a seed. Signature win over OSU

NAU one loss in BSC to MSU who was rated and an additional loss to a FBS team. Win in head to head over the Griz. Signature win over Griz

Griz two loses in BSC, both teams above finish higher than them in BSC. Signature win over MSU who sucks because they are not the Griz.

You look everywhere and they figure one seeded team out of the BSC. Can you find any reason besides we are the Griz that says you get a seed?

Don't say we beat the cats, because they aren't good, with losses to SFA, SMU, EWU, and the Griz.

In your scenario:

#1 NDSU
#2 EWU
#3 Maine
#4 EIU (which I think is a mistake, but think will happen)
#5 Fordham (I'm ok with that)
#6 Coastal (another HUGE mistake)
#7 YSU
#8 Griz

Last 2 seeds would be between YSU, Towson/UD UM and NAU. I firmly believe a 10-2 Griz team is seeded over a 9-2 NAU team, despite the head-to-head win. Both Towson & UD have killer schedules coming down the stretch and YSU still has NDSU, UNI and SDSU to play.

If Coastal beats Charleston Southern, I honestly believe CSU is staying home for the playoffs, or at best is in a play-in game. If CSU beats Coastal, the Big South may not have a seed.

I don't see a Southern Conf team being seeded.

Essentially, the final 6-8 teams battling for the last 4 seeds ALL have extremely tough schedules coming down the stretch. It's going to be REAL interesting the next three weekends...

Thanks, I respect your opinion, don't agree but who cares. I still will by you a beer. Are you going to vermillion? Not sure if we are yet.

Hope cats and Griz win so everything comes down to the Brawl


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[Brock Landers]

Anything is possible, including all the scenarios you are talking about. I think the most likely is the Eags beat the cats and win the big sky. Cats go on to beat SUU and UM. UM wins all its games except MSU game. Where would that leave things?

EWU seed between 4-8

Griz and Cats get first round games

edit: Gah! Didn't realize this was 4 pages long

 

[Robsnotes4u]

Here are the FCS SRS Ratings as of today, also the formula used to calculate SRS.

http://www.footballperspective.com/non-fbs-college-football-ratings-through-10-weeks/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

As a reminder, here’s the system for producing SRS ratings.
1) For each game not played at a neutral site, 3 points are given to the road team. After that adjustment, all wins and losses of between 7 and 24 points are recorded exactly as such. This means that a 24-10 road win goes down as +17 for the road team, -17 for the home team.

2) With one exception, wins of 7 or fewer points are scored as 7-point wins and losses of 7 or fewer points are scored as 7 point losses. So a 4-point home win goes down as +7 (and not a 1) and a 1-point home loss is a -7 (and not a -4). The one exception is that road losses of 3 or fewer (and home wins of 3 or fewer) are graded as ties. So a 21-20 home victory goes down as a 0 for both teams.

3) Wins/Losses of more than 24 points are scored as the average between the actual number and 24. This is to avoid giving undue credit to teams that run up the score. So a 75-point home win goes down as a 48-point win.

Once we have a rating for each team in each game, we then adjust each result for strength of schedule. This is an iterative process, where we adjust the ratings hundreds of times (to adjust for SOS, you have to adjust for the SOS of each opponent, and the SOS of each opponent’s opponent, and so on.) in Excel. Then we produce final ratings, where the SRS rating is the sum of the Margin of Victory and Strength of Schedule in every week.

Thanks but isn't NW Missouri state still a powerhouse D2 school?

Can be a huge difference after the MSU EWU game and UM USD this week.

I reread and I see it is all non-FBS teams

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[jodcon]

Yeah all non-FBS, I had FCS on the brain when I typed that.

 

[AZGrizFan]

Thanks, I respect your opinion, don't agree but who cares. I still will by you a beer. Are you going to vermillion? Not sure if we are yet.

Hope cats and Griz win so everything comes down to the Brawl

Vermillion is a bit of a stretch from San Antonio. :lol:

 

[Robsnotes4u]

Thanks, I respect your opinion, don't agree but who cares. I still will by you a beer. Are you going to vermillion? Not sure if we are yet.

Hope cats and Griz win so everything comes down to the Brawl

Vermillion is a bit of a stretch from San Antonio. :lol:

Holy shit, yes it is. At least your close to the championship field. Only 5 hours from here.


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