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Playoff Candidates Projected

IdaGriz01

IdaGriz01

Well-known member
Since no one else has tackled it yet, thought I'd go ahead.

The records listed below are based on the likely outcomes of the final games for each ... which are shown. Note that in some cases, I picked the least likely outcome to emphasize the fact that some teams can lose and still get a bid based on their overall record/season.

(To make things a bit easier, I have "color coded" the candidates. Probable bids are in blue, Possible -- but chances not as good -- in green, and Out in gray.)

Big Sky
EWU (7-1, 10-2) ... likely win over PSU. Bid either way.
UM (6-2, 8-4) ... must assume win over MSU. Bid probable.
MSU (6-2, 8-4) ... must assume loss to UM. Bid possible, even with loss.
NAU (6-2, 8-4) ... SUU win likely, but three very bad losses. Probably out.
ISU (6-2, 8-4) ... Weber, 2 wins are vs D-II). Out.

Big South
Coastal C (4-1, 11-1) ... record with loss to Liberty. Bid still probable.
Liberty (4-1, 8-4) ... must upset Coastal for auto-bid.

CAA
UNH (7-1, 9-2) ... could lose at Maine (5-5), get bid anyway. (Did not play 'Nova.)
'Nova (6-2, 9-3) ... could lose at Delaware (6-5), bid likely anyway.
JMU (6-2, 9-3) ... likely win vs Elon (1-10). Bid for sure, possible even if they lose.
W&M (5-3, 8-4) ... likely to beat Richmond at home. Winner gets bid.
Rich (4-4, 7-5) ... likely to lose at W&M. A win gives them the bid, bumps W&M out.

MEAC
NC A&T (7-1, 10-2) ... likely to win @ NC Central (6-5). Auto-bid.*
Beth-Cook (6-2, 9-3) ... likely to beat F A&M (3-8) at home. Bid possible, but unlikely.
SC State (6-2, 8-4) ... likely to beat Norfolk St (4-7) at home. Out except on tie-breaker.
Morgan (6-2, 7-5) ... likely to beat Dela. State (2-9) at home. Out except on tie-breaker.
* With loss, NC A&T goes to (6-2, 9-3). Leads to messy tie-breaker and probably gives the conference only one bid. (Generally weak strength of schedule throughout.)

MVFC
NDSU (7-1, 11-1) ... likely to beat YSU at home. Auto-bid.
Illin State (7-1, 10-1) ... likely to beat SIU (6-5) at home. Bid, even with a loss.
UNI (6-2, 8-4) ... likely to beat Mo State (4-7) at home. Bid probable.
Indi State (5-3, 8-4) ... likely to win @ W Illinois (4-7). Bid probable.
SDSU (5-3, 8-4) ... likely to beat USD (2-9) at home. Bid probable.
YSU (4-4, 7-5) ... likely to lose @ NDSU. Out.

NEC
Sacred Heart (5-1, 9-2) ... Season done. Auto-bid.
Bryant (5-1, 9-2) ... likely to beat Wagner at home. Bid possible.
Wagner (4-1, 6-4) ... likely to lose @ Bryant. Out.

OVC
Jacksonville State (7-1, 9-2) ... could lose @ SEMO (5-6). Auto-bid.
E Kentucky (6-2, 9-3) ... lose @ FBS Florida. Bid still probable.
E Illin (6-2, 6-6) ... likely to beat UT-Martin (5-6) at home. Out.

Patriot
Fordham (6-0, 10-2) ... likely to lose at FBS Army. Auto-bid.
Bucknell (5-1, 9-2) ... likely to beat Colgate (4-7) at home. Bid possible.

Pioneer
San Diego (7-1, 9-2) ... could beat Cal Poly (6-5) at home. Autobid.
Jacksonville (7-1, 9-2). Out, withdrew from consideration.

SoCon
Chattanooga (6-0, 8-3) ... likely to win @ Furman (3-8). Auto-bid.
Samford (5-2, 7-4) ... lose @ FBS Auburn. Out.
W Carolina (5-2, 7-5) ... lose @ Alabama. Out. [They or Samford might make a second SoCon bid.]

Southland
SE Louisiana (7-1, 9-3) ... likely to win @ Nicholl State (0-11). Bid
SHSU (7-1, 8-4) ... likely to beat Central Ark at home. Bid probable.
SF Austin (5-3, 8-4) ... likely to beat NWState (6-5) at home. Out, lost to SHSU.*
McNeese (5-3, 8-4) ... likely to beat Lamar at home. Out, lost to SFA and SHSU.
Lamar (4-4, 7-5) ... likely to lose @ McNeese. Out.
Central Ark (5-3, 7-5) ... likely to lose @ SHSU. Out.
* Southland might get third bid from among teams below SHSU.

The bottom line in all these winner/losers projections is 22 auto or probable at-large bids. That leaves two spots to be scattered among 6 “possible” candidates.
 
AllWeatherFan said:
Colgate is 4-7? Are the fans storming the gates with torches and pitchforks?
Click to expand...
Don't know about the pitchforks, but I imagine they're getting in a supply of tar and feathers. :protesst:

The Raiders have lost five straight, and are likely to lose another -- they play at Bucknell (8-2) next weekend. :o

:lol: :lol:
 
IdaGriz01 said:
Since no one else has tackled it yet, thought I'd go ahead.

The records listed below are based on the likely outcomes of the final games for each ... which are shown. Note that in some cases, I picked the least likely outcome to emphasize the fact that some teams can lose and still get a bid based on their overall record/season.

(To make things a bit easier, I have "color coded" the candidates. Probable bids are in blue, Possible -- but chances not as good -- in green, and Out in gray.)

Big Sky
EWU (7-1, 10-2) ... likely win over PSU. Bid either way.
UM (6-2, 8-4) ... must assume win over MSU. Bid probable.
MSU (6-2, 8-4) ... must assume loss to UM. Bid possible, even with loss.
NAU (6-2, 8-4) ... SUU win likely, but three very bad losses. Probably out.
ISU (6-2, 8-4) ... Weber, 2 wins are vs D-II). Out.

Big South
Coastal C (4-1, 11-1) ... record with loss to Liberty. Bid still probable.
Liberty (4-1, 8-4) ... must upset Coastal for auto-bid.

CAA
UNH (7-1, 9-2) ... could lose at Maine (5-5), get bid anyway. (Did not play 'Nova.)
'Nova (6-2, 9-3) ... could lose at Delaware (6-5), bid likely anyway.
JMU (6-2, 9-3) ... likely win vs Elon (1-10). Bid for sure, possible even if they lose.
W&M (5-3, 8-4) ... likely to beat Richmond at home. Winner gets bid.
Rich (4-4, 7-5) ... likely to lose at W&M. A win gives them the bid, bumps W&M out.

MEAC
NC A&T (7-1, 10-2) ... likely to win @ NC Central (6-5). Auto-bid.*
Beth-Cook (6-2, 9-3) ... likely to beat F A&M (3-8) at home. Bid possible, but unlikely.
SC State (6-2, 8-4) ... likely to beat Norfolk St (4-7) at home. Out except on tie-breaker.
Morgan (6-2, 7-5) ... likely to beat Dela. State (2-9) at home. Out except on tie-breaker.
* With loss, NC A&T goes to (6-2, 9-3). Leads to messy tie-breaker and probably gives the conference only one bid. (Generally weak strength of schedule throughout.)

MVFC
NDSU (7-1, 11-1) ... likely to beat YSU at home. Auto-bid.
Illin State (7-1, 10-1) ... likely to beat SIU (6-5) at home. Bid, even with a loss.
UNI (6-2, 8-4) ... likely to beat Mo State (4-7) at home. Bid probable.
Indi State (5-3, 8-4) ... likely to win @ W Illinois (4-7). Bid probable.
SDSU (5-3, 8-4) ... likely to beat USD (2-9) at home. Bid probable.
YSU (4-4, 7-5) ... likely to lose @ NDSU. Out.

NEC
Sacred Heart (5-1, 9-2) ... Season done. Auto-bid.
Bryant (5-1, 9-2) ... likely to beat Wagner at home. Bid possible.
Wagner (4-1, 6-4) ... likely to lose @ Bryant. Out.

OVC
Jacksonville State (7-1, 9-2) ... could lose @ SEMO (5-6). Auto-bid.
E Kentucky (6-2, 9-3) ... lose @ FBS Florida. Bid still probable.
E Illin (6-2, 6-6) ... likely to beat UT-Martin (5-6) at home. Out.

Patriot
Fordham (6-0, 10-2) ... likely to lose at FBS Army. Auto-bid.
Bucknell (5-1, 9-2) ... likely to beat Colgate (4-7) at home. Bid possible.

Pioneer
San Diego (7-1, 9-2) ... could beat Cal Poly (6-5) at home. Autobid.
Jacksonville (7-1, 9-2). Out, withdrew from consideration.

SoCon
Chattanooga (6-0, 8-3) ... likely to win @ Furman (3-8). Auto-bid.
Samford (5-2, 7-4) ... lose @ FBS Auburn. Out.
W Carolina (5-2, 7-5) ... lose @ Alabama. Out. [They or Samford might make a second SoCon bid.]

Southland
SE Louisiana (7-1, 9-3) ... likely to win @ Nicholl State (0-11). Bid
SHSU (7-1, 8-4) ... likely to beat Central Ark at home. Bid probable.
SF Austin (5-3, 8-4) ... likely to beat NWState (6-5) at home. Out, lost to SHSU.*
McNeese (5-3, 8-4) ... likely to beat Lamar at home. Out, lost to SFA and SHSU.
Lamar (4-4, 7-5) ... likely to lose @ McNeese. Out.
Central Ark (5-3, 7-5) ... likely to lose @ SHSU. Out.
* Southland might get third bid from among teams below SHSU.

The bottom line in all these winner/losers projections is 22 auto or probable at-large bids. That leaves two spots to be scattered among 6 “possible” candidates.
Click to expand...

If your scenario plays out for the Southland then SHSU is the auto qualifier.
http://www.southland.org/news/2014/11/17/FB_1117140134.aspx
6. If SHSU, SLU, SFA and MSU win: (AQ: SHSU)
SHSU 7-1
SLU 7-1
SHSU and SLU are co-champions. Since SHSU and SLU did not play each other in the regular season, the NCAA automatic qualification designation is determined by comparing win-loss records against the team(s) below the tie. A comparison vs. the pool of teams at 5-3:
UCA 5-3
MSU 5-3
SFA 5-3
SHSU was 3-0 vs. these teams, while SLU was 2-1. Thus, SHSU earns the Southland Conference's NCAA automatic berth. SLU, among other teams, is an NCAA at-large berth candidate.
 
Robsnotes4u said:
If your scenario plays out for the Southland then SHSU is the auto qualifier.
http://www.southland.org/news/2014/11/17/FB_1117140134.aspx
6. If SHSU, SLU, SFA and MSU win: (AQ: SHSU)
SHSU 7-1
SLU 7-1
SHSU and SLU are co-champions. Since SHSU and SLU did not play each other in the regular season, the NCAA automatic qualification designation is determined by comparing win-loss records against the team(s) below the tie. A comparison vs. the pool of teams at 5-3:
UCA 5-3
MSU 5-3
SFA 5-3
SHSU was 3-0 vs. these teams, while SLU was 2-1. Thus, SHSU earns the Southland Conference's NCAA automatic berth. SLU, among other teams, is an NCAA at-large berth candidate.
Click to expand...
Good work!

I wondered about the tie-breaker sequence, when I saw the same conference record in this scenario. I didn't work through it because I was pretty sure both would get bids, and it didn't much matter which was the auto and which at-large.
 
IdaGriz01 said:
Robsnotes4u said:
If your scenario plays out for the Southland then SHSU is the auto qualifier.
http://www.southland.org/news/2014/11/17/FB_1117140134.aspx
6. If SHSU, SLU, SFA and MSU win: (AQ: SHSU)
SHSU 7-1
SLU 7-1
SHSU and SLU are co-champions. Since SHSU and SLU did not play each other in the regular season, the NCAA automatic qualification designation is determined by comparing win-loss records against the team(s) below the tie. A comparison vs. the pool of teams at 5-3:
UCA 5-3
MSU 5-3
SFA 5-3
SHSU was 3-0 vs. these teams, while SLU was 2-1. Thus, SHSU earns the Southland Conference's NCAA automatic berth. SLU, among other teams, is an NCAA at-large berth candidate.
Click to expand...
Good work!

I wondered about the tie-breaker sequence, when I saw the same conference record in this scenario. I didn't work through it because I was pretty sure both would get bids, and it didn't much matter which was the auto and which at-large.
Click to expand...

Thanks, but I received the info from someone else. It would be nice if every conference did this the last couple of weeks on their websites.
 
Robsnotes4u said:
IdaGriz01 said:
Robsnotes4u said:
If your scenario plays out for the Southland then SHSU is the auto qualifier.
http://www.southland.org/news/2014/11/17/FB_1117140134.aspx
6. If SHSU, SLU, SFA and MSU win: (AQ: SHSU)
SHSU 7-1
SLU 7-1
SHSU and SLU are co-champions. Since SHSU and SLU did not play each other in the regular season, the NCAA automatic qualification designation is determined by comparing win-loss records against the team(s) below the tie. A comparison vs. the pool of teams at 5-3:
UCA 5-3
MSU 5-3
SFA 5-3
SHSU was 3-0 vs. these teams, while SLU was 2-1. Thus, SHSU earns the Southland Conference's NCAA automatic berth. SLU, among other teams, is an NCAA at-large berth candidate.
Click to expand...
Good work!

I wondered about the tie-breaker sequence, when I saw the same conference record in this scenario. I didn't work through it because I was pretty sure both would get bids, and it didn't much matter which was the auto and which at-large.
Click to expand...

Thanks, but I received the info from someone else. It would be nice if every conference did this the last couple of weeks on their websites.
Click to expand...
It would be nice. Particularly with so many conferences now having unbalanced schedules where the lower levels of tie-breakers (beyond head-to-head) come into play. It would also pump up even more interest in the games. Fans could see how a game that doesn't seem to mean much to anyone but the participants might matter a lot down the tie-breaker road. Also, it would get people used to the idea of some weird ways it could work out. I remember the surprise last year when Furman got the auto-bid out of the SoCon because of some strange way of doing the tie-breaker.
 
Wrap-up after today.

Big Sky Most agreed it was a given that the Griz would get a bid when they won over MSU. We also thought the kitties would still get a bid. But is that still true after such a beat-down? Hmmm. NAU, as many expected, continued its melt-down .. . so they’re almost certainly out. ISU has just six D-I wins. Result: EWU, UM, MSU (possible).
Cumulative: 2 bids, 1 possible.

Big South Liberty upset Coastal for the auto-bid, but CC (11-1) will probably get a bid anyway.
Cumulative: 4 bids, 1 possible.

CAA Wins as expected. Result: UNH, Nova, JMU, (Richmond or W&M).
Cumulative: 8 bids, 1 possible.

MEAC NC A&T lost at NC Central, so the conference apparently goes to a tie-breaker. Result: One tie-breaker result and Bethune-Cookman, even if they lost the tie-breaker (because they have a history and have been ranked).
Cumulative: 9 bids, 2 possible.

MVFC Wins as expected, except that Indiana State (now 4-4, 7-5) lost to Western Illinois. Result: NDSU, Illin State, UNI, SDSU.
Cumulative: 13 bids, 2 possible.

NEC Auto-bid only (Sacred Heart). Bryant lost to Wagner, but are a (remote) possibility.
Cumulative: 14 bids, 3 possible.

OVC Results as expected: Jacksonville State, E Kentucky.
Cumulative: 16 bids, 3 possible.

Patriot Results: Fordham gets auto-bid. Bucknell (now 8-3) lost, but might get bid.
Cumulative: 17 bids, 4 possible.

Pioneer San Diego losing to Cal Poly, but has auto-bid.
Cumulative: 18 bids, 4 possible.

SoCon Results: Chattanooga has auto-bid. Another bid unlikely.
Cumulative: 19 bids, 4 possible.

Southland Expected results, except McNeese State lost. results: SELA, SHSU, SFA.
Cumulative: 22 bids, 4 possible.

If this is even close, two teams get “left out.”
 
My guess is that we get either San Diego, or Sam Houston in the first round. MSU would get the other. If not, one of the MVFC would be the next closest in a regional standpoint.
 
6 division 1 wins is all you need to get in. Real slim chance but that could sneak ISU or Poly in, but certainly not both.
 
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