Mover-Ups Doing Well

[Blue Tears]

Playing in better stadiums on the road would be nice, but I wouldn't trade the ability to win for it that is certain.

 

[AZGrizFan]

Playing in better stadiums on the road would be nice, but I wouldn't trade the ability to win for it that is certain.

Why do you automatically assume we'd lose the ability to win?

 

[Blue Tears]

Playing in better stadiums on the road would be nice, but I wouldn't trade the ability to win for it that is certain.

Why do you automatically assume we'd lose the ability to win?

I am a mathematician, I am just playing the odds. If we could have the same ability to compete and win, I would be all for a move. For me, it really comes down to playing in better stadiums on the road against better competition is not worth the huge risk of turning into an also ran program that struggles to compete.

 

[Blue Tears]

The great thing about everyone who has contributed to this thread though is we are ALL Griz fans to the end no matter what level they play. Griz Nation is STRONG!

 

[UTGrizFan]

To tackle some of the points made up:

-Why is weather being brought up? Its clearly not that big an issue otherwise teams like Wisconsin would never be able to field a team.

-Now in regards to facilities both the Griz and the Cats (remember it will be a package deal if they do move up) both have them in place to support Football at the FBS level. Not only that but they both actually have the fan bases to support the move as well, one of my biggest complaints of the Sun Belt is how their stadiums always seem to be empty.

-The whole "we would just get our asses kicked" is not an excuse and one that is just an assumption, not fact. Granted the first couple of years probably would be rough as we would be playing stiffer competition, however I do think in the Mountain West (the only conference we would ever consider) I think we would do well a lot sooner then many estimate.

-The $$ and exposure would be a lot better which would do great things for both MSU and Montana. Instead of trying to find a game online streaming somewhere it would be a nice change of pace to turn on ESPNU, CBSSports or some other channel and see Montana playing at Oregon State or MSU against Air Force.

-The regional rivalries would be better, and this is not a dig against teams like EWU. However seeing the Griz play against teams like Wyoming, Utah State, Boise State (if they are not poached by another conference) and Idaho every year would be so awesome!

-A great scenario (though I don't see it happening until the Conferences start expanding again) would be to add both MSU and Montana along with Idaho and NMSU to the MWC. Would give us 9 Conference games (7 in Division, 2 from opposite Division) and 2 games as either money games or FCS games.

 

[AZGrizFan]

Playing in better stadiums on the road would be nice, but I wouldn't trade the ability to win for it that is certain.

Why do you automatically assume we'd lose the ability to win?

I am a mathematician, I am just playing the odds. If we could have the same ability to compete and win, I would be all for a move. For me, it really comes down to playing in better stadiums on the road against better competition is not worth the huge risk of turning into an also ran program that struggles to compete.

Please share your mathematical formulas used to calculate this "huge risk". I'd love to see the analysis.

 

[Blue Tears]

Playing in better stadiums on the road would be nice, but I wouldn't trade the ability to win for it that is certain.

Why do you automatically assume we'd lose the ability to win?

I am a mathematician, I am just playing the odds. If we could have the same ability to compete and win, I would be all for a move. For me, it really comes down to playing in better stadiums on the road against better competition is not worth the huge risk of turning into an also ran program that struggles to compete.

Please share your mathematical formulas used to calculate this "huge risk". I'd love to see the analysis.

I will keep it simple for you. Only 7 of the 22 teams I found that have moved up over the last 30 or so years have overall winning FBS records. That is 31.8%. Most of these teams were fantastic at the FCS/1AA level. I really don't like those odds.

 

[Blue Tears]

To tackle some of the points made up:

-Why is weather being brought up? Its clearly not that big an issue otherwise teams like Wisconsin would never be able to field a team.

For the 6TH TIME now, weather is a facet that is certainly NOT a huge deal. If everything is comparable between us and another institution, I just mentioned that our weather wouldn't do us a favor. Winning tradition among other things certainly trumps the weather. If one truly reads the thread and brings up weather again (after I have stated this multiple times), I would have to assume you are either acting like a politician or are a few fries short of a happy meal.

 

[NavyBlue]

I have said before and will say again, if Utah State can do it so could the Griz and Cats.
I have listed before all the disadvantages that USU has in comparison to UM and MSU so I won't bother to do that again.

If Utah State can do it, so could the Griz.

 

[Blue Tears]

[/quote]If Utah State can do it, so could the Griz.[/quote]

The Aggies moved up at one point? I thought they have been Division 1A / FBS for the duration. Either way, you guys are having a good season thus far. Congrats...

 

[Spanky]

Blue Tears....for your information, we used to be in the Skyline Conference with Utah State.

 

[Blue Tears]

Blue Tears....for your information, we used to be in the Skyline Conference with Utah State.

Thanks Spanky, I didn't realize we were with Utah State from 1951 to 1961. That is before my time, but good to know.

 

[NavyBlue]

If Utah State can do it, so could the Griz.[/quote]

The Aggies moved up at one point? I thought they have been Division 1A / FBS for the duration. Either way, you guys are having a good season thus far. Congrats...[/quote]

You are correct we have always been 1A/FBS. That said, we were a worse program than the Griz for most of the past 25 years. The Griz still have more season ticket holders than we do, I am quite sure.

 

[AZGrizFan]

Why do you automatically assume we'd lose the ability to win?

I am a mathematician, I am just playing the odds. If we could have the same ability to compete and win, I would be all for a move. For me, it really comes down to playing in better stadiums on the road against better competition is not worth the huge risk of turning into an also ran program that struggles to compete.

Please share your mathematical formulas used to calculate this "huge risk". I'd love to see the analysis.

I will keep it simple for you. Only 7 of the 22 teams I found that have moved up over the last 30 or so years have overall winning FBS records. That is 31.8%. Most of these teams were fantastic at the FCS/1AA level. I really don't like those odds.

What 22 teams are you using? If you're including ODU, Charlotte, UTSA, Ga State, etc., etc., etc. then that's gonna skew your odds dramatically.

 

[grizindabox]

I am a mathematician, I am just playing the odds. If we could have the same ability to compete and win, I would be all for a move. For me, it really comes down to playing in better stadiums on the road against better competition is not worth the huge risk of turning into an also ran program that struggles to compete.

Please share your mathematical formulas used to calculate this "huge risk". I'd love to see the analysis.

I will keep it simple for you. Only 7 of the 22 teams I found that have moved up over the last 30 or so years have overall winning FBS records. That is 31.8%. Most of these teams were fantastic at the FCS/1AA level. I really don't like those odds.

What 22 teams are you using? If you're including ODU, Charlotte, UTSA, Ga State, etc., etc., etc. then that's gonna skew your odds dramatically.

So you are saying there is a chance???????

 

[Spanky]

Blue Tears....The UM football history is a bit different from most FCS programs. In a sense, we moved down as we were a member of the Pacific Coast Conference for years and then the Skyline Conference. The University of Montana, in my view, has been FCS for more years than it should be and now, is the time to prepare a move to FBS. Over the years, Montana has been the premier program of the Big Sky Conference and has more than earned the right to consider moving on to a higher level. Yes, we have faced some challenges, however, they will pass and UM football will be stronger than ever.

 

[Blue Tears]

Blue Tears....The UM football history is a bit different from most FCS programs. In a sense, we moved down as we were a member of the Pacific Coast Conference for years and then the Skyline Conference. The University of Montana, in my view, has been FCS for more years than it should be and now, is the time to prepare a move to FBS. Over the years, Montana has been the premier program of the Big Sky Conference and has more than earned the right to consider moving on to a higher level. Yes, we have faced some challenges, however, they will pass and UM football will be stronger than ever.

Thanks for the perspective Spanky. I know we disagree on a potential move, but I do appreciate the thought you put into your posts. I agree that UM will be strong going forward.

 

[Blue Tears]

I am a mathematician, I am just playing the odds. If we could have the same ability to compete and win, I would be all for a move. For me, it really comes down to playing in better stadiums on the road against better competition is not worth the huge risk of turning into an also ran program that struggles to compete.

Please share your mathematical formulas used to calculate this "huge risk". I'd love to see the analysis.

I will keep it simple for you. Only 7 of the 22 teams I found that have moved up over the last 30 or so years have overall winning FBS records. That is 31.8%. Most of these teams were fantastic at the FCS/1AA level. I really don't like those odds.

What 22 teams are you using? If you're including ODU, Charlotte, UTSA, Ga State, etc., etc., etc. then that's gonna skew your odds dramatically.

I used all teams that I could find who have moved up from FCS to FBS. Some teams have a great recruiting region, some have wonderful facilities, some have solid tradition and some have high attendance, but their common denominator is that they all moved from FCS to FBS over the last few decades. That list includes Georgia Southern and Appalachian State, who have both posted wining records in their short time in the Sun Belt. With their short stints being counted, one could argue that their data is skewing the results for the better. Did you realize that Texas SA last year averaged almost 28,000 fans and is coached by a National Title winner in Larry Coker. They are also in a very fertile recruiting region. Georgia State has poured a ton of money into their football program and has some great facilities. ODU sells out mot of their games and was wildly successful in their stay at FCS. Just because they are new relatively new programs, I am puzzled by with their resources and loaded recruiting area why one would fail to include them.

 

[AZGrizFan]

I am a mathematician, I am just playing the odds. If we could have the same ability to compete and win, I would be all for a move. For me, it really comes down to playing in better stadiums on the road against better competition is not worth the huge risk of turning into an also ran program that struggles to compete.

Please share your mathematical formulas used to calculate this "huge risk". I'd love to see the analysis.

I will keep it simple for you. Only 7 of the 22 teams I found that have moved up over the last 30 or so years have overall winning FBS records. That is 31.8%. Most of these teams were fantastic at the FCS/1AA level. I really don't like those odds.

I like math too, so let's delve a little deeper, using your "winning FBS records" as a measuring stick (this is long, so bear with me):

Montana has a 322-147 record since I-AA was established in 1978. That's a winning percentage of .687 (and BTW, a winning percentage of .767 since 1988 ), one that I would qualify as "fantastic" at the I-AA level. So how do the "move upers" compare?

Akron: Moved up in 1987. Record since: 122-204 (.375); Record in 7 years in I-AA prior to moving up: 41-35 (.539)
App State: Moved up in 2014. Record since: 14-6 (.700); Record in 32 years in I-AA prior 267-126 (.679)
Ark State: Moved up in 1992. Record since 113-165 (.406); Record in 10 years in I-AA prior 61-54 (.530)
Boise: Moved up in 1996. Record since 197-54 (.785); Record in 18 years in I-AA prior 134-76 (.638)
Buffalo: Moved up in 1999. Record since 56-141 (.284); Record in 6 years in I-AA prior 22-44 (.333)
UCF^: Moved up in 1996. Record since 127-113 (.529); Record in 5 years in I-AA prior 45-25 (.642)
UConn: Moved up in 2000. Record since 89-101 (.468); Record in 22 years in I-AA prior 122-116 (.512)
FAU*: Moved up in 2006. Record since 44-74 (.373); Record in 5 years in I-AA prior 28-30 (.483)
FIU@: Moved up in 2006. Record since 36-83 (.328); Record in 4 years in I-AA prior 15-29 (.341)
Ga South: Moved up in 2014. Record since: 15-5 (.750); Record in 30 years in I-AA prior 281-107 (.724)
Idaho: Moved up in 1997. Record since: 66-154 (.300); Record in 19 years in I-AA prior 140-84 (.625)
La Tech: Moved up in 1989. Record since: 158-154 (.506); Record in 7 years in I-AA prior 45-37 (.548)
La Monroe: Moved up in 1994. Record since 90-162 (.357); Record in 12 years in I-AA prior 90-48 (.652)
Marshall: Moved up in 1997. Record since 150-86 (.636); Record in 15 years in I-AA prior 132-60 (.687)
UMass: Moved up in 2012. Record since 6-38 (.136); Record in 34 years in I-AA prior 225-161 (.583)
MTSU: Moved up in 1999. Record since 94-105 (.472); Record in 21 years in I-AA prior 141-96 (.595)
Nevada: Moved up in 1992. Record since 156-131 (.544); Record in 14 years in I-AA prior 122-47 (.722)
North TX: Moved up in 1995. Record since 84-160 (.344); Record in 13 years in I-AA prior 66-77 (.461)
ODU: Moved up in 2014. Record since 9-11 (.450); Record in 5 years in I-AA prior 46-14 (.767)
USF: Moved up in 2001. Record since 94-83 (.531); Record in 4 years in I-AA prior 27-17 (.628)
Texas State: Moved up in 2012. Record since 19-24 (.442); Record in 28 years in I-AA prior 141-173 (.449)
Troy St: Moved up in 2002. Record since 81-86 (.485); Record in 9 years in I-AA prior 84-26 (.764)
WKU: Moved up in 2009. Record since 39-44 (.469); Record in 31 years in I-AA prior 191-156 (.550)

Ga State, NC Charlotte, South Alabama & UTSA not included because the started programs with the intention of moving up and were I-AA in name only for a brief period.

^ UCF: Program started in 1991
* FAU: Program started in 2001
@ FIU: Program started in 2002
& ODU: Program started in 2009

I think you and I might have a different idea of what "fantastic" means at the I-AA level. The only ones I would classify as "fantastic" at the I-AA level are App State, Boise, UCF, Ga Southern, Idaho, La Monroe, Marshall, Nevada, ODU (limited sample set), USF & Troy State. All had winning percentages in I-AA above .600. Of that group, all except Idaho, La Monroe, ODU & Troy State STILL have winning percentages in I-A above .500. So, 7 of 11 "fantastic" I-AA programs are still performing well after moving up. Using THAT logic, the Griz have a great chance of still seeing success in I-A, given their excessively "fantastic" historical performance in I-AA.

There are 9 programs with winning records since moving up. They are all among the 17 move-up programs that had winning records in I-AA. Using just THAT logic (your own calculation) we've got a greater than 50% chance of sustaining a winning tradition. App State, Ga Southern & Boise are three programs whose winning percentages actually increased moving up, with Boise's increasing markedly. Buffalo, FIU, La Tech & Texas State saw very little to no change in their winning percentage. Marshall's winning percent dipped slightly, but is still above .600. Biggest negative Deltas have been Idaho & UMass. Many of these programs' performances have caveats, with horrible 1st/2nd years (aka, WKU), with improved performance over time. Using THIS measure, Griz have almost a 50% (8/17) chance of seeing similar results in a move-up scenario.

Of all schools that have moved up, only FIVE had higher winning percentages in I-AA than the Griz: Ga Southern, Nevada, ODU, Troy & Marshall (tie). Of that group, three of the five have maintained an above-.500 winning percentage in FBS. Using THAT logic, we'd have a greater than 50% chance of maintaining a winning percentage above .500 in a move-up scenario.

Personally, seeing all those numbers together, I think it's more than worth the risk, purely from a philisophical and competition standpoint (money and vision and desire to do so aside), to move up and play in the deep end of the pool.

Point being this: There may be lots of reasons to not move up. Fear of failure shouldn't be one of them.

 

[SoldierGriz]

Wait for it....but, but, but...