MONTANA VS SYRACUSE PREDICTIONS

[AllWeatherFan]

Okay, it must be said: The Orange put up 39 points at Georgetown on March 9.

Are we as good defensively as the Hoyas? No. But is it possible we could beat 'em? Sure.

 

[stubbins]

As an avid Big East basketball fan, I try to watch every game that is televised. I will say this, Syracuse is extremely talented. James Southerland is one of the best spot shooters in the country (14 ppg), Brandon Triche is one of the best guards in the Big East (14 ppg), and Rakeem Christmas (6'9" 242 jumps out of the building) is a damn monster and extremely difficult, if not impossible for Hutch to guard.
In order for the Griz to stay close: Cherry and Jamar will do everyting they can defensively to keep the Orange at bay. Gregory will need to shoot extremely well and play the best defense of his season. Hutch can not get into foul trouble because if he does, Martin will get flat out beat up in every sense of the term. Cherry and Jamar will need to combine for 40 points. Gregory and Coleman will need to combine for 20 and DeShields will need to give some quality minutes. If we keep it close down the stretch, we have a shooters chance (and we will need everything to fall). My honest prediction is Cuse 72, Griz 59.
The Cinderlla dancin', want to believe, die hard Griz fan in me wants to say Griz 61 Cuse 57 (if everything went the best possible way)

this is a bad match up. a man to man team at least gives will the chance to drive to the hoop at the end of the shot clock. this zone is still viable after 30 fucking years. it works. going to have to nail some deep threes and give up no offensive rebounds.

 

[bigsky33]

As a Cat fan I wish you guys luck. Even though your a 13 going against a 4 anything can happen in this tournament. We have all seen it happen over the years. That's why they play the game.

Being a huge Big East fan I see Syracuse having a huge advantage. They are used to pressure games, tournaments and playing top competition night in and night out. I see them wearing down your team big time in the second half as they have much more depth.

My predicition is Orange 72-Griz-52.

 

[mtgrizrule]

So says CNN

Montana Grizzlies (25-6) Big Sky Conference Tournament Champions

Weaknesses:
It's not even fair to talk about the Grizzlies' rebounding skills...they don't have any. How bad is it? They're ranked 309th-in-the-country-on-the-boards-level bad. That's just too bad to even continue discussing.

Question to those in the know: I've wondered about our lack of rebounding.
Is this a coaching strategy to save our energy for other aspects of the game?

It looks to me, this year we have conceded offensive boards in favor of transition defense. We have good rebounding guards, but when we crash the offensive boards it plays into a good transition team's game. We play great transition defense overall, and very few teams get cheap buckets off missed shots. Crashing the offensive boards against someone like Syracuse will be a death sentence for us. I believe if we had better and deeper post players we would compete much better here. Can we somehow get Brian Qvale back for this game?

 

[CFallsGriz]

So says CNN

Montana Grizzlies (25-6) Big Sky Conference Tournament Champions

Weaknesses:
It's not even fair to talk about the Grizzlies' rebounding skills...they don't have any. How bad is it? They're ranked 309th-in-the-country-on-the-boards-level bad. That's just too bad to even continue discussing.

Question to those in the know: I've wondered about our lack of rebounding.
Is this a coaching strategy to save our energy for other aspects of the game?

It looks to me, this year we have conceded offensive boards in favor of transition defense. We have good rebounding guards, but when we crash the offensive boards it plays into a good transition team's game. We play great transition defense overall, and very few teams get cheap buckets off missed shots. Crashing the offensive boards against someone like Syracuse will be a death sentence for us. I believe if we had better and deeper post players we would compete much better here. Can we somehow get Brian Qvale back for this game?

This.

 

[Stoney]

As a Cat fan I wish you guys luck. Even though your a 13 going against a 4 anything can happen in this tournament. We have all seen it happen over the years. That's why they play the game.

Being a huge Big East fan I see Syracuse having a huge advantage. They are used to pressure games, tournaments and playing top competition night in and night out. I see them wearing down your team big time in the second half as they have much more depth.

My predicition is Orange 72-Griz-52.

Oh. I don't know about a 20 point win.. We rarely blow teams out unless you are Cornell, Wagner, Easter Michigan.. We usually play down to the competitions level if you are half way decent, and Montana is decent. You only have 6 losses so I can pretty much guarantee this game will be close.

Southerland is a great shooter if he is hitting his first few, you better duck. But if he is off, he is very off and likely to miss 8 straight.

Mike Carter-Williams has great court awareness and is a great distributor but his handle and shot is suspect.

Brandon Triche is inconsistent, he can be a problem for you if he comes to play. But who knows?

CJ Fair is pretty good, looks slow out there at times but isn't. He can shoot and is pretty consistent, will likely be the guy that wins the game for us.

Trevor Cooney came in as a highly touted shooter but that hasn't happened yet.

Keep a eye on Frosh Jerami Grant who many think may someday be one of the best we have ever had before he is done but he won't play much, still learning. Son of former pro Harvey Grant. His Brother plays at ND.

Our two-three centers are big but really only there for defense. We have a 5 star frosh who is pretty good offensive player but defensively hasn't been able to beat out the other two guys yet.

So, basically we have weaknesses. I think we'll definitely win but not by blowout. 10-15 points.

 

[IdaGriz01]

Let me start by saying I have no illusions about the Griz having a good chance to upset Syracuse. Montana will have to play well, especially early ... mainly to build confidence ... to have any kind of chance. As usual, defense will be the key because sometimes the Orangeman struggle to score. The Griz need to make it that kind of night for them. Syracuse has lost nine game, mostly to quality opponents: They lost twice to Georgetown and twice to Louisville (split the regular season, but lost in the tournament).

Still, a look at those losses might be instructive. I notice some on here follow the “conventional wisdom” that you shoot treys to get the opponent out of a zone defense. That “wisdom” generally does not apply to Syracuse. You’d have to absolutely shoot “lights out” to force Boeheim to give up on the zone.

Of the games the Orangeman lost, only one of them had 3-pointers as a major factor: Connecticut made a late run with a string of made threes, and won 66-58. (The Huskies ended up making 8 of 14, for 57%). But overall, in the nine losses, opponents cranked up an average of 53 field goals, while attempting just 19 treys. That’s one trey attempt for every 2.8 field goals, very close to the UM season average. (A more typical ratio, BTW, is 1 for 2.3 ... a somewhat higher frequency of 3-point attempts.)

By analysis or luck, these winning teams accepted the reality that the hyper-active Syracuse zone can knock 6-9 points off the scoring average for a team that relies heavily on the three. (That is, you will miss 2 or 3 treys that you might have made against another defense.) So they tried something else.

What they ended up doing was to put up enough treys to keep the zone from collapsing inside, but not so many as to let ‘Cuse turn them into failed ball possessions. Instead, they slung the ball around to create holes inside the zone, looking for uncontested layups or short jumpers. According to game-tracker shot diagrams, a fair number of those mid-range jumpers were attempted within a yard or two on either side of the key, at about foul-shot distance.

Throwing up a lot of contested threes just gives up those possessions, especially since the Griz are weak on rebounding anyway. At least with a higher-percentage jumper, the shooter is already inside, ready to follow or grab a long rebound. Seems to me the Griz have the players to execute such a strategy.

 

[CFallsGriz]

Ehhhhh....no disrespect, but your fanbase that posts on your board is very much taking us lightly. In fact, I would go far beyond that and say that none of them posting there have any respect for UMs program, or the fact that were here again in the tourney.

The game may end up one-sided (and maybe not), but as yet there is less than zero respect there or credence to your assertion that no one is taken lightly. :twocents:

I know, it's insane because there you sit with an RPI of 76 so you are obviously better than our fellow BE member St Johns who is at 92 RPI. But we certainly take St Johns seriously. So not sure I know the answer to the lack of respect. I think we'll win the game but it won't be a cakewalk.

Early in the year we were playing very well, trouncing SDSU on the Midway. Maybe we got a bit smug after that but we came slamming back to earth in the second half of the BE schedule only to win three straight in the BET before 'Ville stomped us.

I think the biggest reason we are so confident though, is because Montana is not synonymous with top 20 basketball. Not sure when the last time you were ranked and we just don't lose very many games to teams that aren't ranked. Our fan base was in meltdown mode when we lost to Temple - RPI 41...

Well, the assertion I made was that you (fanbase) DO take teams lightly, i.e. UM, per the posts all over the board I read. You had said, and I quote, "We take no one lightly," whereas I said that you (fanbase) do. That was it.

Not that you should be faulted for that considering your pedigree. Just that you do. Even great teams should be breaking down the game of perceived inferior competition, including the fans. Lucky for you fans though, I'm sure your legendary coach-and I say that in all seriousness- and co. are doing exactly that, breaking us down, though the posting fans would not waste the time to do so. Sometimes we do the same in football (seem arrogant), but you will always see a good breakdown of the "inferior" opponent on the board because in sports every team has a shot any given day, and storied, successful programs seem to get that.

That said, I feel like we lose by 12-ish.

Peace, and carry on.

And I hope you have a terrible game :thumb:

 

[NikeGrizz]

Cherry goes for 40 and Jamar a trip dub....

 

[HighLineGRIZ]

My concern is the same as last year's concern: we don't play a difficult enough schedule to prepare us for these types of games. Syracuse will be by far the most athletic team we've faced this year. Our changes really rely on if we can get our shooters open shots and if we are able to keep them from getting 2nd chance opportunities off the glass. I'm really hoping Cherry and/or Jamar has one of those "steal the spotlight" types of games and lights them up though...

Orange 76 - Griz 61

Go Griz!!

 

[Ashamed]

Cherry goes for 40 and Jamar a trip dub....

I will take that bet.

BTW...you need to fix your avatar. :thumb:

 

[bobaloo]

A very well respected and knowledgeable sports writer for the Salt Lake Trib Gordon Monson has Montana as the upset in his bracket.

 

[DCOrange]

I didn't know until I read it here, several times, that Montana is a very weak rebounding team. I can't help but think that's going to put a lot of pressure on the Grizzlies to shoot especially well, since your guys are going to be facing a team that at no time has any player on the floor shorter than 6'4".

 

[Word]

I didn't know until I read it here, several times, that Montana is a very weak rebounding team. I can't help but think that's going to put a lot of pressure on the Grizzlies to shoot especially well, since your guys are going to be facing a team that at no time has any player on the floor shorter than 6'4".

We're an okay defensive rebounding team, but pretty awful offensive rebounding team. It'll be interesting to see how that plays out, given that Syracuse is the opposite (great O-rebounding team, bad D-rebounding team). I see Syracuse controlling about 75% of boards when they're on D, 35% when they're on O. Any greater percentage and Montana is in big trouble.

 

[Grizzlies1982]

I didn't know until I read it here, several times, that Montana is a very weak rebounding team. I can't help but think that's going to put a lot of pressure on the Grizzlies to shoot especially well, since your guys are going to be facing a team that at no time has any player on the floor shorter than 6'4".

DCOrange, welcome to the site. You are right. Montana's shooting will essentially determine if this game is close. Last year it seemed we couldn't hit anything and it began to get ugly by early in the 2nd half.

If our guys are "on" we may have a chance to run with your team, if they're off it should not be much of a contest. I'm not as optimistic as "Word". I suspect Syracuse will have the majority of rebounds on both sides of the court. In addition, the Orangemen will dominate the middle. We have some talented but undersized players. To pull off this upset the Griz will need to play their usual solid defense, get a few points underneath, and make a ton of baskets from the outside. I don't expect too many second chances, so those shots better be good the first time around. Looking forward to the game, and keeping my fingers crossed. Go Griz!
:ugeek:

 

[DCOrange]

Thanks for the welcome, Grizzlies82. Something I wonder about is speed. Big East teams tend to be fast, and Syracuse is no exception. Carter-Williams, our 6'6" PG, is preposterously quick for his size. But he also has a regrettable tendency to play loose with the ball. If Montana has a pesky, swipe-the-ball sort of guard that has the speed to keep up with MCW, that could cause problems for the Orange.

 

[zengriz]

Montana has a pesky, swipe-the-ball sort of guard that has the speed to keep up with MCW, that could cause problems for the Orange.

...tinkle drawz up the perfect plan...
...the griz execute the perfect game...
...and thiz haz a chance to go our way...
...we got thoze pesky swipe the ball guyz...

... ...

 

[Grizrule#1]

Be careful about prognosticating a win, Griz fans.

Jerry Punch will have to come in and tell you how wrong you are after the fact, and point out your foolishness in hoping your team might actually win.

You should live in "reality", because no 13 seed has ever won a game in the first round ever. Ever.


Ever.

Did I miss something? That statement is absolutely untrue. This has happened 23 times in the past NCAA tournaments...that a 13 seed beat a 4 seed.

 

[JAKEweezy93]

Be careful about prognosticating a win, Griz fans.

Jerry Punch will have to come in and tell you how wrong you are after the fact, and point out your foolishness in hoping your team might actually win.

You should live in "reality", because no 13 seed has ever won a game in the first round ever. Ever.


Ever.

Did I miss something? That statement is absolutely untrue. This has happened 23 times in the past NCAA tournaments...that a 13 seed beat a 4 seed.

bro, what do u not understand about EVER?

 

[Grizrule#1]

Be careful about prognosticating a win, Griz fans.

Jerry Punch will have to come in and tell you how wrong you are after the fact, and point out your foolishness in hoping your team might actually win.

You should live in "reality", because no 13 seed has ever won a game in the first round ever. Ever.


Ever.

Did I miss something? That statement is absolutely untrue. This has happened 23 times in the past NCAA tournaments...that a 13 seed beat a 4 seed.

bro, what do u not understand about EVER?

What bro? When included with a negative, it means never (like the word "no")!