This is about what I'm guessing ... but we'll see. When I get a few minutes, I'll work up my "poll guesses" and see what the score differentials, etc. say.BWahlberg said:#5 Chattanooga also lost to #8 Citadel, I bet we hold at where we are. SDSU will jump ahead of us, ndsu will sink to the 5-7 range.
IdaGriz01 said:FCS Poll Guesses (Oct 16)
Figured since this thread was already here, I wouldn’t bother to start a new one. There’s lots of interesting stuff to consider, with six losses among the ranked teams, including NDSU going down.
Poll Guess, Team, (Record), [Current Rank]
1 Sam Houston State (6-0) [2]
2 Jacksonville State (5-1) [3]
3 Eastern Washington (5-1) [4]
4 Richmond (6-1) [6]
5 North Dakota State (5-1) [1]
6 James Madison (6-1) [7]
7 Citadel (6-0) [8]
8 Charleston Southern (3-2) [9]
9 Montana (5-1) [10]
10 South Dakota State (4-2) [11]
11 Chattanooga (6-1) [5]
12 Western Illinois (5-1) [12]
13 Youngstown State (5-1) [14]
14 North Car. A&T (5-1) [15]
15 Coastal Carolina (4-2) [16]
16 Eastern Illinois (5-2) [18]
17 Cal Poly (4-2) [19]
18 North Dakota (5-2) [22]
19 Villanova (5-2) [13]
20 Central Arkansas (5-1) [23]
21 Samford (5-1) [24]
22 Grambling State (4-1) [25]
23 Albany (4-2) [17]
24 Tennessee State (5-1) [NR]
25 Stony Brook (4-2) [NR]
NR Harvard (4-1) [20]
NR Northern Iowa (2-4) [21]
Like some have already said on this thread, NDSU may not drop quite as much as my “formula” indicates. It was a trade-off between the fact that is was a last-second loss … but they were at home, where they’re supposed to be almost unbeatable. BTW: A loss, even to a ranked team, normally drops the loser about six spots -- so actually I’m being “generous” to only drop them four. But I think their big rep will hold it to that, and maybe not even as much.
Note that my formula did drop the other losers six spots: Chattanooga from #5 to #11, Villanova from #13 to #19, and Albany from #17 to #23. Plus, I project that Harvard and Northern Iowa will drop out of the top-25.
I strongly considered jumping SDSU over the Griz … or even more. And they may well do so. Two factors contributed to leaving it as above. First, the overall reaction to the late SDSU score for the win leans heavily toward: “Well, they just got lucky.” (I don’t necessarily agree with that, but it will affect some pollsters, I think.) Conversely, the reaction to the big win by the Griz seems quite positive -- being impressed by the fact that Stitt played the “subs” for most of the second half.
Gonna be really interesting on Monday.
IdaGriz01 said:FCS Poll Guesses (Oct 16)
Figured since this thread was already here, I wouldn’t bother to start a new one. There’s lots of interesting stuff to consider, with six losses among the ranked teams, including NDSU going down.
Poll Guess, Team, (Record), [Current Rank]
1 Sam Houston State (6-0) [2]
2 Jacksonville State (5-1) [3]
3 Eastern Washington (5-1) [4]
4 Richmond (6-1) [6]
5 North Dakota State (5-1) [1]
6 James Madison (6-1) [7]
7 Citadel (6-0) [8]
8 Charleston Southern (3-2) [9]
9 Montana (5-1) [10]
10 South Dakota State (4-2) [11]
11 Chattanooga (6-1) [5]
12 Western Illinois (5-1) [12]
13 Youngstown State (5-1) [14]
14 North Car. A&T (5-1) [15]
15 Coastal Carolina (4-2) [16]
16 Eastern Illinois (5-2) [18]
17 Cal Poly (4-2) [19]
18 North Dakota (5-2) [22]
19 Villanova (5-2) [13]
20 Central Arkansas (5-1) [23]
21 Samford (5-1) [24]
22 Grambling State (4-1) [25]
23 Albany (4-2) [17]
24 Tennessee State (5-1) [NR]
25 Stony Brook (4-2) [NR]
NR Harvard (4-1) [20]
NR Northern Iowa (2-4) [21]
Like some have already said on this thread, NDSU may not drop quite as much as my “formula” indicates. It was a trade-off between the fact that is was a last-second loss … but they were at home, where they’re supposed to be almost unbeatable. BTW: A loss, even to a ranked team, normally drops the loser about six spots -- so actually I’m being “generous” to only drop them four. But I think their big rep will hold it to that, and maybe not even as much.
Note that my formula did drop the other losers six spots: Chattanooga from #5 to #11, Villanova from #13 to #19, and Albany from #17 to #23. Plus, I project that Harvard and Northern Iowa will drop out of the top-25.
I strongly considered jumping SDSU over the Griz … or even more. And they may well do so. Two factors contributed to leaving it as above. First, the overall reaction to the late SDSU score for the win leans heavily toward: “Well, they just got lucky.” (I don’t necessarily agree with that, but it will affect some pollsters, I think.) Conversely, the reaction to the big win by the Griz seems quite positive -- being impressed by the fact that Stitt played the “subs” for most of the second half.
Gonna be really interesting on Monday.
Could be. But that's making a rash assumption: That's assuming that the pollsters make rational decisions based on looking over the whole body of work. Evidence suggests that they don't do that -- they take their list for the previous week, tweak it a bit based on the latest wins and losses ... and go with the result.Grizzlies1982 said:Jacksonville St will be #1. No Dakota St. no lower than #4. On strength of beating the #1 team on the road So Dakota St. will leap frog the Griz into the top ten void left by Chattanooga's loss. Montana ends up remaining at #10.