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Monday polls

#5 Chattanooga also lost to #8 Citadel, I bet we hold at where we are. SDSU will jump ahead of us, ndsu will sink to the 5-7 range.
 
BWahlberg said:
#5 Chattanooga also lost to #8 Citadel, I bet we hold at where we are. SDSU will jump ahead of us, ndsu will sink to the 5-7 range.
This is about what I'm guessing ... but we'll see. When I get a few minutes, I'll work up my "poll guesses" and see what the score differentials, etc. say.
 
I do not think NDSU drops to 5-7 (at least they wouldn't if anybody gave a shit about my rankings). I put NDSU at 3, the way the usual poll adjustments work. But, they are still number 1 in the realist poll.
 
FCS Poll Guesses (Oct 16)

Figured since this thread was already here, I wouldn’t bother to start a new one. There’s lots of interesting stuff to consider, with six losses among the ranked teams, including NDSU going down.

Poll Guess, Team, (Record), [Current Rank]
1 Sam Houston State (6-0) [2]
2 Jacksonville State (5-1) [3]
3 Eastern Washington (5-1) [4]
4 Richmond (6-1) [6]
5 North Dakota State (5-1) [1]
6 James Madison (6-1) [7]
7 Citadel (6-0) [8]
8 Charleston Southern (3-2) [9]
9 Montana (5-1) [10]
10 South Dakota State (4-2) [11]
11 Chattanooga (6-1) [5]
12 Western Illinois (5-1) [12]
13 Youngstown State (5-1) [14]
14 North Car. A&T (5-1) [15]
15 Coastal Carolina (4-2) [16]
16 Eastern Illinois (5-2) [18]
17 Cal Poly (4-2) [19]
18 North Dakota (5-2) [22]
19 Villanova (5-2) [13]
20 Central Arkansas (5-1) [23]
21 Samford (5-1) [24]
22 Grambling State (4-1) [25]
23 Albany (4-2) [17]
24 Tennessee State (5-1) [NR]
25 Stony Brook (4-2) [NR]

NR Harvard (4-1) [20]
NR Northern Iowa (2-4) [21]

Like some have already said on this thread, NDSU may not drop quite as much as my “formula” indicates. It was a trade-off between the fact that is was a last-second loss … but they were at home, where they’re supposed to be almost unbeatable. BTW: A loss, even to a ranked team, normally drops the loser about six spots -- so actually I’m being “generous” to only drop them four. But I think their big rep will hold it to that, and maybe not even as much.

Note that my formula did drop the other losers six spots: Chattanooga from #5 to #11, Villanova from #13 to #19, and Albany from #17 to #23. Plus, I project that Harvard and Northern Iowa will drop out of the top-25.

I strongly considered jumping SDSU over the Griz … or even more. And they may well do so. Two factors contributed to leaving it as above. First, the overall reaction to the late SDSU score for the win leans heavily toward: “Well, they just got lucky.” (I don’t necessarily agree with that, but it will affect some pollsters, I think.) Conversely, the reaction to the big win by the Griz seems quite positive -- being impressed by the fact that Stitt played the “subs” for most of the second half.

Gonna be really interesting on Monday.
 
IdaGriz01 said:
FCS Poll Guesses (Oct 16)

Figured since this thread was already here, I wouldn’t bother to start a new one. There’s lots of interesting stuff to consider, with six losses among the ranked teams, including NDSU going down.

Poll Guess, Team, (Record), [Current Rank]
1 Sam Houston State (6-0) [2]
2 Jacksonville State (5-1) [3]
3 Eastern Washington (5-1) [4]
4 Richmond (6-1) [6]
5 North Dakota State (5-1) [1]
6 James Madison (6-1) [7]
7 Citadel (6-0) [8]
8 Charleston Southern (3-2) [9]
9 Montana (5-1) [10]
10 South Dakota State (4-2) [11]
11 Chattanooga (6-1) [5]
12 Western Illinois (5-1) [12]
13 Youngstown State (5-1) [14]
14 North Car. A&T (5-1) [15]
15 Coastal Carolina (4-2) [16]
16 Eastern Illinois (5-2) [18]
17 Cal Poly (4-2) [19]
18 North Dakota (5-2) [22]
19 Villanova (5-2) [13]
20 Central Arkansas (5-1) [23]
21 Samford (5-1) [24]
22 Grambling State (4-1) [25]
23 Albany (4-2) [17]
24 Tennessee State (5-1) [NR]
25 Stony Brook (4-2) [NR]

NR Harvard (4-1) [20]
NR Northern Iowa (2-4) [21]

Like some have already said on this thread, NDSU may not drop quite as much as my “formula” indicates. It was a trade-off between the fact that is was a last-second loss … but they were at home, where they’re supposed to be almost unbeatable. BTW: A loss, even to a ranked team, normally drops the loser about six spots -- so actually I’m being “generous” to only drop them four. But I think their big rep will hold it to that, and maybe not even as much.

Note that my formula did drop the other losers six spots: Chattanooga from #5 to #11, Villanova from #13 to #19, and Albany from #17 to #23. Plus, I project that Harvard and Northern Iowa will drop out of the top-25.

I strongly considered jumping SDSU over the Griz … or even more. And they may well do so. Two factors contributed to leaving it as above. First, the overall reaction to the late SDSU score for the win leans heavily toward: “Well, they just got lucky.” (I don’t necessarily agree with that, but it will affect some pollsters, I think.) Conversely, the reaction to the big win by the Griz seems quite positive -- being impressed by the fact that Stitt played the “subs” for most of the second half.

Gonna be really interesting on Monday.


Could someone help me out? Don't see the kittens on the list anywhere. Must be a mistake!!
 
IdaGriz01 said:
FCS Poll Guesses (Oct 16)

Figured since this thread was already here, I wouldn’t bother to start a new one. There’s lots of interesting stuff to consider, with six losses among the ranked teams, including NDSU going down.

Poll Guess, Team, (Record), [Current Rank]
1 Sam Houston State (6-0) [2]
2 Jacksonville State (5-1) [3]
3 Eastern Washington (5-1) [4]
4 Richmond (6-1) [6]
5 North Dakota State (5-1) [1]
6 James Madison (6-1) [7]
7 Citadel (6-0) [8]
8 Charleston Southern (3-2) [9]
9 Montana (5-1) [10]
10 South Dakota State (4-2) [11]
11 Chattanooga (6-1) [5]
12 Western Illinois (5-1) [12]
13 Youngstown State (5-1) [14]
14 North Car. A&T (5-1) [15]
15 Coastal Carolina (4-2) [16]
16 Eastern Illinois (5-2) [18]
17 Cal Poly (4-2) [19]
18 North Dakota (5-2) [22]
19 Villanova (5-2) [13]
20 Central Arkansas (5-1) [23]
21 Samford (5-1) [24]
22 Grambling State (4-1) [25]
23 Albany (4-2) [17]
24 Tennessee State (5-1) [NR]
25 Stony Brook (4-2) [NR]

NR Harvard (4-1) [20]
NR Northern Iowa (2-4) [21]

Like some have already said on this thread, NDSU may not drop quite as much as my “formula” indicates. It was a trade-off between the fact that is was a last-second loss … but they were at home, where they’re supposed to be almost unbeatable. BTW: A loss, even to a ranked team, normally drops the loser about six spots -- so actually I’m being “generous” to only drop them four. But I think their big rep will hold it to that, and maybe not even as much.

Note that my formula did drop the other losers six spots: Chattanooga from #5 to #11, Villanova from #13 to #19, and Albany from #17 to #23. Plus, I project that Harvard and Northern Iowa will drop out of the top-25.

I strongly considered jumping SDSU over the Griz … or even more. And they may well do so. Two factors contributed to leaving it as above. First, the overall reaction to the late SDSU score for the win leans heavily toward: “Well, they just got lucky.” (I don’t necessarily agree with that, but it will affect some pollsters, I think.) Conversely, the reaction to the big win by the Griz seems quite positive -- being impressed by the fact that Stitt played the “subs” for most of the second half.

Gonna be really interesting on Monday.

Won't be surprised to see NDSU stay around 2-3 and EWU be 4. Only reason would be head to head with EWU and NDSU earlier.
 
It will also be interesting to see if Charleston Southern drops a spot after being stuck at 3-2 for the last couple weeks (lost opportunity for an almost guaranteed win against Albany State due to weather cancellation and then had a bye this past week). Their schedule says postponed for Albany State but I don't see where they could make up the game. One of their wins is D-II, so that 3-2 record is really starting to stand out in the top 10.
 
Poll Guess, Team, (Record), [Current Rank]
1 Sam Houston State (6-0) [2]
2 Jacksonville State (5-1) [3]
3 Eastern Washington (5-1) [4]
4 North Dakota State (5-1) [1]
5 James Madison (6-1) [7]
6 Richmond (6-1) [6]
7 Citadel (6-0) [8]
8 South Dakota State (4-2) [11]
9 Charleston Southern (3-2) [9]
10 Montana (5-1) [10]
11 Youngstown State (5-1) [14]
12 Western Illinois (5-1) [12]
13 Chattanooga (6-1) [5]
14 North Car. A&T (5-1) [15]
15 Coastal Carolina (4-2) [16]
16 Eastern Illinois (5-2) [18]
17 North Dakota (5-2) [22]
18 Cal Poly (4-2) [19]
19 Villanova (5-2) [13]
20 Central Arkansas (5-1) [23]
21 Samford (5-1) [24]
22 Grambling State (4-1) [25]
23 Stony Brook (4-2) [NR]
24 Tennessee State (5-1) [NR]
25 Albany (4-2) [17]

NR Harvard (4-1) [20]
NR Northern Iowa (2-4) [21]
 
No way should Sam be #1. Their schedule is a bigger joke than UND's, and they just gave up 48 points to a team almost as bad as MVSU.
 
Jacksonville St will be #1. No Dakota St. no lower than #4. On strength of beating the #1 team on the road So Dakota St. will leap frog the Griz into the top ten void left by Chattanooga's loss. Montana ends up remaining at #10.
 
Grizzlies1982 said:
Jacksonville St will be #1. No Dakota St. no lower than #4. On strength of beating the #1 team on the road So Dakota St. will leap frog the Griz into the top ten void left by Chattanooga's loss. Montana ends up remaining at #10.
Could be. But that's making a rash assumption: That's assuming that the pollsters make rational decisions based on looking over the whole body of work. Evidence suggests that they don't do that -- they take their list for the previous week, tweak it a bit based on the latest wins and losses ... and go with the result.

Like I say, tomorrow should be very interesting. ;)
 
Cal Poly is the team that should be upset with rankings. They beat SDSU and Montana, with a narrow loss to North Dakota, the Big Sky leader.
 
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