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Last Four IN: Montana!
- Thread starter GRIZNATION
- Start date
Based on strength-of-schedule Sagrin Rating -- which will give Eastern Washington the Big Sky auto bid over North Dakota if it beats Portland State on Friday -- Montana has the edge over the rest of the BSC hopefuls. UM ranks 110th out of all D-I programs (FCS and FBS), second best to EWU's 69. North Dakota is 129th, Northern Arizona 134th, Cal Poly 142nd, Weber State 162nd and Northern Colorado 178th.
ranco said:
And if that happens it would be an absolute crying shame. I seriously hope you guys don't feel good about that at all. You would be 4-4 in league play and they would be 6-2. Yes I know it sucks having an unbalanced league but Jesus you have no business making the playoffs even if you beat us.
HelenaHandBasket
Well-known member
People are mistaken if they don't think conference record is a factor, especially if it is when comparing a team that finishes 3rd at 6-2 with a team that finishes at best 7th with a 4-4 record. If the Griz had a chance to be 5-3, it probably wouldn't be a huge deal, but just look at 6-2 sitting next to 4-4. Caveat, I am not saying the Griz could not get in over Weber in this situation, but the Conference record will be considered. Might not matter if they don't play well on Saturday. At least it is a home game.
marceagfan5
Well-known member
BWahlberg said:
I think its better than 40%...I do think the UM/Weber argument is interesting. I believe UM is the better team and has a better SOS and Sagarin ranking. Weber has a better conference record and technically only has 3 FCS losses compared to 4 FCS losses for UM. Would be interesting to see what the committee would do here...
VimSince03
Well-known member
[tweet]https://twitter.com/CraigHaley/status/798587775645687808[/tweet]
I believe Craig has it wrong, the Big Sky will get four teams in. Should as well. Those four teams will be (assuming the Griz and Cal Poly win)
Eastern Washington
North Dakota
Cal Poly
Montana
Eastern Washington
North Dakota
Cal Poly
Montana
HelenaHandBasket
Well-known member
I think Griz fans must root for ISU /Poly/Montana to win and then that the BSC gets 4 teams. I see that as the only way the Griz get into the playoffs. Slim odds.
Well Craig has three conferences getting four teams in. I don't believe the Southern Conference should have four teams. Big Sky is rated as the 3rd best overall conference in the FCS.... in addition it has 14 teams. 4 from the Big Sky should get in.
BadlandsGrizFan
Well-known member
OmegaGRIZ said:
Good one..please keep posting...everyone really likes hearing what you have to say.
VimSince03 said:
I don't think there's any doubt about that.
What Montana would hope for is that a 4th Big Sky team gets in. Or that Poly loses.
In that case the 3rd Big Sky team would be from this pool:
7-4 Montana (conf losses to NAU, EWU, Poly, UNC)
7-4 UNC (conf losses to EWU, UCD, UND) win over Montana but only 6 D1 wins
7-4 Weber State (conf losses to NAU and UND) didn't play EWU or UNC
6-5 NAU (conf losses to EWU, UNC, and UND) will only have 5 D1 wins
6-5 SUU (conf losses to UM, UND, & Weber) would have just 6 D1 wins
6-5 CPSLO (conf losses to UND, EWU, UNC, and Weber) and would have just 6 D1 wins
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It would seem the argument might come down to UM vs Weber as both would have 7 D-1 wins.
Montana's argument: 110 Sagarin rating where Weber's is 162. Win vs playoff bound SFU. Win on the road vs UNI. Weber didn't play UNC or EWU while UM did. UM winds up with 2 wins vs winning record teams (if UNI wins) where Weber beat just 1 team with a winning record. Weber lost to 4-6 South Dakota where all of UM's losses are to winning record teams.
Weber's argument: Beat common Montana opponent Cal Poly. Finished 3rd in the conference at 6-2 where Montana is 4-4. Played UND while Montana didn't. Schedule rank is 155th where Montana's is 169th.
VimSince03
Well-known member
BWahlberg said:
As usual Brint, great analysis!
I think Montana for sure gets in over Weber State on the above analysis. So than it seems to boil down to, if the Big Sky gets four teams in, Montana would be in... if UNC beats Cal Poly, would the Griz get in as the 3rd team? I actually see both Cal Poly and Montana getting in, and I hope Cal Poly beats UNC.
I think the Big Sky Conference deserves the 4th spot (3rd best rated conference, and the conference has 14 teams!). There are lots of scenarios that can play out this weekend which would help the Big Sky get 4 teams in. I don't see the Idaho State vs Weber game meaning a hole lot, except for the fact the ISU Athletic Director is on the playoff committee.
I think the Big Sky Conference deserves the 4th spot (3rd best rated conference, and the conference has 14 teams!). There are lots of scenarios that can play out this weekend which would help the Big Sky get 4 teams in. I don't see the Idaho State vs Weber game meaning a hole lot, except for the fact the ISU Athletic Director is on the playoff committee.
Anyone on Twitter want to ask Craig under what circumstances he see's the Griz getting in the field and what they would be? Who does he think needs to lose this weekend in order for Griz to get in? I think that would be useful insight. Right now he has them just out, being one of the last teams not selected.
GriznBigfork
Active member
Per criteria 3 question on strength of Schedule.
The Griz have only beat 1 team with a winning record, St. Francis. UNI and SUU are both .500. SUU plays at NAU and UNI hosts SDSU, so the is a good probability that both will finish under .500.
I do not think this is very good for the Griz. What are others thoughts. Here is what I put together on the Griz schedule.
Wins
St Francis 7-3
Northern Iowa 5-5
Southern Utah 5-5
Mississippi Valley State 1-9
Sac State 2-8
ISU 2-8
Combined record of teams beat
22 - 38 or .367
Losses
Cal Poly 6-4
NAU 5-5
EWU 9-1
UNC 6-4
Combined record of teams lost to
26-14 or .650
The Griz have only beat 1 team with a winning record, St. Francis. UNI and SUU are both .500. SUU plays at NAU and UNI hosts SDSU, so the is a good probability that both will finish under .500.
I do not think this is very good for the Griz. What are others thoughts. Here is what I put together on the Griz schedule.
Wins
St Francis 7-3
Northern Iowa 5-5
Southern Utah 5-5
Mississippi Valley State 1-9
Sac State 2-8
ISU 2-8
Combined record of teams beat
22 - 38 or .367
Losses
Cal Poly 6-4
NAU 5-5
EWU 9-1
UNC 6-4
Combined record of teams lost to
26-14 or .650
Based on the schedule for this weekend and the way things have played out, I'm not so sure the Griz need to cheer for anybody other than themselves on Saturday to still get into the playoffs. Win and you are likely in!
IdaGriz01
Well-known member
Wow! I kinda figured Coastal Carolina would do the Griz a favor and bump Liberty out of the "7-4 bubble." But I never thought it would be a blowout. Currently, 28-0 CC, halfway though Q2. The Flames are simply getting crushed. (Game on DTV 207, ESPNews).
Edit: And Nicholls is currently tied with SE Louisana (6-4) ... so that's good news so far. (Have not found that on TV anywhere.)
Edit: And Nicholls is currently tied with SE Louisana (6-4) ... so that's good news so far. (Have not found that on TV anywhere.)
