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Last Four IN: Montana!

HelenaHandBasket said:
IdaGriz01 said:
Big Sky

Almost certain bid: Winner of NoCol at CP. Loser (6-5) eliminated.
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I would not classify UNC as almost certain.
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Perhaps not, but I did not even try to pick a winner for the game. But to fit a (somewhat) realistic scenario, I chose to assume that the winner of that game would get extra consideration for a bid at 7-4. But the reaility is that all such matchups would throw the winner into the 7-4 "pool" with the Griz, and bump the loser out. I did the same thing with the 6-4 face-off in the CAA. Was trying to not "load" the approach in the Griz's favor -- was, in fact, somewhat loading it the other way. I do not think the Griz will get any "extra consideration" for bumping off the 'Cat at WaGriz.
 
I don't think Northern Colorado will get in even with a win. The Rocky game is killing their SOS. I know, I know, but they beat Montana, Poly, and NAU. But You still have to look at it from the committee precedents and those are heavily working against the Bears from Greely.
 
havgrizfan said:
I don't think Northern Colorado will get in even with a win. The Rocky game is killing their SOS. I know, I know, but they beat Montana, Poly, and NAU. But You still have to look at it from the committee precedents and those are heavily working against the Bears from Greely.
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I agree. From that perspective, a NoCol win works in favor of the Griz. On the other hand, I do not give rhe Bears a big chance of going into Cal Poly and winning. So then the 7-4 argument must be considered in terms of CP being the winner ... and I do think CP has more going for them in terms of getting a bid.
 
7-4 Montana team that was 0-4 on the road with no quality wins (UNI is mediocre and St. Francis will not hold that much weight). Montana stays home this year....IMO
 
putter said:
7-4 Montana team that was 0-4 on the road with no quality wins (UNI is mediocre and St. Francis will not hold that much weight). Montana stays home this year....IMO
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...I was leaning the same.....way....then I looked at other....Conference standings.....there is a whole lotta......average teams....and not many with.....8 or more wins.....
 
putter said:
7-4 Montana team that was 0-4 on the road with no quality wins (UNI is mediocre and St. Francis will not hold that much weight). Montana stays home this year....IMO
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Agree. IF there are four Big Sky teams that get in, it will be EWU, UND, Weber, and CP. There won't be five, even if you beat MSU.
 
grizindabox said:
putter said:
7-4 Montana team that was 0-4 on the road with no quality wins (UNI is mediocre and St. Francis will not hold that much weight). Montana stays home this year....IMO
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...I was leaning the same.....way....then I looked at other....Conference standings.....there is a whole lotta......average teams....and not many with.....8 or more wins.....
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Near as I can tell, there are just 17 teams with eight or more wins in all of FCS. That totals 125 teams, but includes the non-participants (Ivy, etc.) and the four conferences that almost never get more than their auto-bids (Big South, NEC, Patriot, Pioneer).

Together, the "usual" multi-bid conferences (BCS, CAA, MVFC, OVC, SoCon, Southland) have 64 teams. Among those 64 teams, there are only 10 that have eight or more wins.

Here's another indicator: Among those same six multi-bid conferences, there are only 16 teams that have a better record than 6-4. There are ten at 6-4. So that's 26 teams trying for 20 remaining playoff spots. (After the four auto-bids noted above). Some of the teams at 6-4 will not make it to 7-4. And there are two for sure, since they play each other -- so the number drops to 24. Bump just two more teams with "good" records from the weaker multi-bid conferences ... and you're there. Not really so amazing.
 
BWahlberg said:
Brother Bear said:
It is looking like four teams should get in from the Big Sky Conference. Of the FOUR teams, I think Montana with a win will be the 4th team in. It is actually possibly they could be the 3rd Big Sky team in. If the Griz do get in, it will almost assuredly be a home game as it would feature two teams un-seeded. If they win, they would be going on the road the next week for a very tough game, but I still see it as winnable. Especially if the Griz get it rolling.
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From the Big Sky:

1. EWU - lock
2. UND - lock

Then you've got Cal Poly, Northern Colorado, Montana, and Weber. Poly and UNC play each other.

If Cal Poly wins they're in ahead of Montana

The trick would be if UNC wins and if Weber wins (Weber plays @ ISU).

If UNC wins then you're looking at

6-5 Poly
7-4 UNC with a win over UM
7-4 Weber with a win over Poly
7-4 Montana who lost to both UNC and Poly
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I probably trust your opinion the most on this topic. What do you think the % chance is for the Griz to get into the playoffs if they win against MSU?
 
Wasn't $ bid part of the equation as far as home games sometime in the past. Is it an unwritten consideration now, especially regarding first round home games?
 
behappp said:
Wasn't $ bid part of the equation as far as home games sometime in the past. Is it an unwritten consideration now, especially regarding first round home games?
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The bids don't get looked at until the selected field is made.
 
CV Griz Fan said:
BWahlberg said:
Brother Bear said:
It is looking like four teams should get in from the Big Sky Conference. Of the FOUR teams, I think Montana with a win will be the 4th team in. It is actually possibly they could be the 3rd Big Sky team in. If the Griz do get in, it will almost assuredly be a home game as it would feature two teams un-seeded. If they win, they would be going on the road the next week for a very tough game, but I still see it as winnable. Especially if the Griz get it rolling.
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From the Big Sky:

1. EWU - lock
2. UND - lock

Then you've got Cal Poly, Northern Colorado, Montana, and Weber. Poly and UNC play each other.

If Cal Poly wins they're in ahead of Montana

The trick would be if UNC wins and if Weber wins (Weber plays @ ISU).

If UNC wins then you're looking at

6-5 Poly
7-4 UNC with a win over UM
7-4 Weber with a win over Poly
7-4 Montana who lost to both UNC and Poly
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I probably trust your opinion the most on this topic. What do you think the % chance is for the Griz to get into the playoffs if they win against MSU?
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40%

Haha, I don't really know. I think they're somewhat in our favor since we need a few favored auto-bid teams to win. Also I think if it's 7-4 us vs 7-4 Weber to get in we'll get in because of SoS/Sagarin and ranking, even though Weber beat a team that beat us and has a better conference record.
 
I actually still fully believe when playing up to their capabilities, Montana is easily one of the 24 best teams in the country. The Polls still agree with that as well. At the same time, has Montana put together a playoff caliber resume? No, I don't agree that they have even in this day and age of the expanded field, which really isn't this day and age anymore, since it's been 24 for a while now. Having said that, who beat who, and what's fair isn't always how these things work, and whether it's fair to Weber, Cal Poly and Northern Colorado or not, a 7-4 Montana is going to get probably the most discussion of ANY at-large candidate in that room on Saturday night. I'm not saying the Griz will get in, but there's no doubt they'll be the most heavily discussed team, and one thing that will be discussed in that meeting is Brady Gustafson. No matter how many Egrizzers think Chalich is better, the committee doesn't give a crap about that. They will consider the Northern Colorado loss as Montana played on the road and lost by 3 without their starting quarterback who was on his way to being Second-Team All Big Sky and who is on the Stats POY Watch List. I will bet any amount of money that comes up in any discussion regarding the Griz, among other things. Of course, all that is contingent on a win over the Cats.
 
havgrizfan said:
I actually still fully believe when playing up to their capabilities, Montana is easily one of the 24 best teams in the country. The Polls still agree with that as well. At the same time, has Montana put together a playoff caliber resume? No, I don't agree that they have even in this day and age of the expanded field, which really isn't this day and age anymore, since it's been 24 for a while now. Having said that, who beat who, and what's fair isn't always how these things work, and whether it's fair to Weber, Cal Poly and Northern Colorado or not, a 7-4 Montana is going to get probably the most discussion of ANY at-large candidate in that room on Saturday night. I'm not saying the Griz will get in, but there's no doubt they'll be the most heavily discussed team, and one thing that will be discussed in that meeting is Brady Gustafson. No matter how many Egrizzers think Chalich is better, the committee doesn't give a crap about that. They will consider the Northern Colorado loss as Montana played on the road and lost by 3 without their starting quarterback who was on his way to being Second-Team All Big Sky and who is on the Stats POY Watch List. I will bet any amount of money that comes up in any discussion regarding the Griz, among other things. Of course, all that is contingent on a win over the Cats.
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:puke:
 
I don't see a team with 6 D1 wins getting in over a team with 7 D1 wins, even if they did win the head to head. Cal Poly definitely should be in with a win. Same with Weber.
 
Question 1:
If NC and Weber both win does Weber get consideration over NC? Assuming a loss eliminates CP, do the 7 D1 wins of Weber trump the more impressive 6 D1 wins of NC?

Question 2:
Assuming both Weber and CP lose, does NC get in with only 6 D1 wins or does the committee take only 3 BSC teams in this scenario?

Question 3:
Assuming Weber and Montana both win, regardless of what happens in the NC-CP game, is there any scenario that Weber gets the nod instead of UM for that 4th BSC team?
 
Conference standings do not matter after the auto-bid. Strength of schedule, won-loss record, Division I wins come into play. So will the FCS saragin type ratings determining the best teams.
Griz have that going for them.
Question 1 above: Yes, Webers 7 better than No. Colorado 6
Question 2 above: NC win doesn't mean they are in.
Question 3 above: I firmly believe based on criteria and all the rankings, the Griz will get in over Weber State if they both win this weekend.

If Cal Poly wins, they are in.
 
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