FBS is just something we cannot afford, lets focus on winning at the level we are at right now.
Been doing a deep dive on this with updated 2025 figures and honestly the numbers are even rougher than the old analyses floating around. Some of this has already been called out in this thread and is redundant, but its not pretty, buckle up.
The Buy-In
Using NDSU as the comp (most recent FCS → MW transition), we're looking at $5M to the NCAA for reclassification plus $12.5M to the Mountain West as an entry fee — about $7M due on day one, rest paid over 5 years. That's $17.5M just to walk in the door. NDSU ran a "Climb the Mountain" donor campaign that raised ~$25M to cover this. Montana would need something similar.
The New MW TV Deal Is Not What You Think
A lot of people are still using the old $6-7M per school figure. That was the old deal. The new contract (CBS/Fox/The CW/Kiswe streaming) is actually worse — legacy schools are guaranteed their current ~$3.5M floor, but here's the kicker: under the NDSU model, new members don't get full distributions for six years. We'd realistically be collecting $1.5-2M/year in conference money while paying full FBS operating costs. That ramp-up period is brutal.
The Contractual Spending Trap
This is the part nobody talks about. Buried in NDSU's membership agreement is a clause requiring them to maintain a football budget "reasonably comparable" to the league average and if they fall below a 50% win rate in conference, they're required to raise their budget above the MW average. Nevada's football budget alone is ~$14.8M. Ours is well under $10M. That's not a gap you close quietly.
The Full Picture
Running the numbers on a stabilized Year 3-4 budget:
Revenue comes in around $32-37M when you factor in conference distributions (reduced), ticket revenue, boosters, and guarantee games. Expenses, once you account for jumping from 63 to 85 scholarships, FBS coaching salaries, national travel, non-football sports upgrades, and House settlement athlete payments run $54-65M.
That's an $18-30M annual structural deficit. Every year. For years.
Over the full first decade you're probably looking at $17.5M in buy-in costs plus $200M+ in cumulative deficits before the program approaches sustainability. You'd need the donor campaign, significant student fee hikes, and realistically some state legislature support (I know, I know) to make it work long-term.
We all know the brand is there. The fanbase is there. Washington-Grizzly on a fall Saturday is genuinely FBS-caliber in atmosphere. But the balance sheet isn't and unlike NDSU, which spent years quietly building infrastructure specifically aimed at this move, we'd be going in without that runway.
Not saying never. Saying it would take a decade-long institutional commitment and probably needs to start with a serious facilities push before a conference application even makes sense.
