James Madison's jump, North Dakota State's reign and the FBS vs. FCS conundrum

[mthoopsfan]

GameDay went to Fargo because they felt sorry for the Bison's declining attendance.

Considering you are the guy who thinks montana plays at the fbs level, you need to sit this one out..

I have never said UM plays at the FBS level.

 

[mthoopsfan]

I don't know how to feel about this...mostly because I have been a "move up" guy from the WAC rumor days. I really thought they were going to move up and was very excited for it. I still think they should have, especially with all the crap that's happening now, Griz likely would be a Mountain West team at this point. That said, both arguments are very valid. PR is absolutely correct, there would have to be SIGNIFICANT upgrade to be over .500 in the MTN West as it is. There absolutely would be less Montana kids on the 2 deep, and likely the roster. Maybe, though, that makes it even MORE fun to cheer for them as they break into the PT.
That said...if the dust settles with Boise, San Diego State, Fresno, UNLV jumping ship, then there is absolutely room for the Griz to move up into the mountain west...unless the leftovers from the Pac 12(10) are gobbled up. The Griz could be competitive with a watered down MTN West and with facilities etc, could become a decent Group of 5 team. It would absolutely be more fun to watch the Griz host Wyoming or Air Force over No. Colorado or Northwestern State.
The question to the kids would be...Would you rather play for a national championship at a lower level OR play at the higher level and make a bowl game but never a national title? I will tell you, I have been in both scenarios. I have been with kids playing in a low level bowl and have been with kids winning national championships at a lower level. BOTH groups absolutely love what is happening. The kids are treated very well at the "Traeger, great redmeat cookin' , smokin a bowl, bowl" as well as a D2 national championship game (week). Most kids would not be coming to Montana assuming that Alabama would be their New Years Day opponent. Most of them would be playing division 1 FBS football because of a dream. How many times on this board when the Griz lose a recruit to a low level team, has someone said..."Why would they go to ________? They suck. Why wouldn't they want to compete for a championship?" Well, simply, they wanted to play FBS.
Not many people like change...I am absolutely one of the worst with this...but the issue is that the times are changin folks. College football in 3 years is going to be absolutely different. Does the University want to change? Are they happy where they are? Soon, it MAY be D2 and no such thing as FCS. Maybe the group of 5 has their own playoff? Then yes, there is a chance to be the group of 5 national champion. Nobody likes 6-6 seasons as Griz Fans, and there would be losing seasons. But the long term potential could outreach those few low seasons. Appy, Marshall, GA Southern...all have been cyclical. We just do not know. Nobody really does.

Good post and analysis.

People have been saying football and FCS are a changin for several decades. And they are, but that doesn't mean UM should move up or there will be a good opportunity to move up.

I can't imagine it would be affordable, and can't imagine the board of regents would permit it. Too much risk and cost. I was told years ago that one of the main reasons Boise St. succeeded in moving up and Idaho didn't, was because Boise was able to raise so much more money initially and on an ongoing basis. I don't see any examples of big athletic dollar commitments from companies around Missoula or MT. There are a decent number of good individual financial supporters, but I don't see many, if any, of them stepping up with multiple 7 figure donations to fund the initial phase and the ongoing operations. $5 million or so of additional annual conference/tv revenue doesn't fund any of the initial costs, and doesn't come close to funding the necessary ongoing , increase gap in the necessary budget increase to complete successfully in the MW.

 

[Cowboys84]

How it applies: it could be a window into the future where the fan base becomes fickle and tired of beating up on little sisters of the poor, driving down attendance. It’s really not that complicated.

UM has been very good in FBS a lot longer than NDSU. Attendance decline hasn’t happened at UM. UM has better fans.

Did any of the reasons you cite cause Bison attendance to decline?

The bigger risk of attendance decline would be going 6-6 in FBS and having fewer MT players on the team.

It's right here, deny it some more

 

[mthoopsfan]

UM could not compete in the Mountain West without significantly upgrading its roster. This would have to come from out of state. It's one thing to play, and even win against, an FBS school, but it's difficult to complete in an FBS schedule.

Wyoming has 10 players from Wyoming on its roster. There are 3 Wyo. players on its two-deep, from its last game last season. There were almost 60 players on the two-deep.

The Lady Griz have 3 women from Montana on the roster now. Some fans have gotten what they wished for. A frosh, Albrecht and Bartsch.

It’s hard for me to believe that our football team can’t compete against Mountain West teams. A Montana football team that went to Seattle last year and beat the stuffing out of Washingtons football team.We might be 6-6 in year one, however, in year three, we will compete for the Mountain West championship. Now, for the Montana kids———Montana has many, many high school players that are gifted with natural talent. Bobby is the master of developing this talent and will continue after we are FBS. These kids will play for Montana in the Mountain West along with outstanding recruits from elsewhere. UM has our doors open for out of state and foreign students as well as Montana students which contributes to the university environment.We want to attract the best students possible, not protect Montana students. The same philosophy should apply to all UM athletic teams, including football.

My impression is that at least some of the board of regents want the sports programs of the universities and colleges to give considerable opportunity to MT kids. Yes, I understand how that is not true in many/most other states.

 

[mthoopsfan]

UM has been very good in FBS a lot longer than NDSU. Attendance decline hasn’t happened at UM. UM has better fans.

Did any of the reasons you cite cause Bison attendance to decline?

The bigger risk of attendance decline would be going 6-6 in FBS and having fewer MT players on the team.

It's right here, deny it some more

Oops, typo. Very good in FCS longer than NDSU.

 

[mthoopsfan]

UM could not compete in the Mountain West without significantly upgrading its roster. This would have to come from out of state. It's one thing to play, and even win against, an FBS school, but it's difficult to complete in an FBS schedule.

Wyoming has 10 players from Wyoming on its roster. There are 3 Wyo. players on its two-deep, from its last game last season. There were almost 60 players on the two-deep.

The Lady Griz have 3 women from Montana on the roster now. Some fans have gotten what they wished for. A frosh, Albrecht and Bartsch.

That first statement is just flat out false. UMs current roster puts them at around .500 in the current mountain west, and if Lucas Johnson plays well enough the current roster could play well enough to be top 6 in MWC. My next favorite team after UM is Wyoming and I watch mountain west football religiously….. have for years. With a couple more depth pieces UM would be competing with the top 6 teams annually. Your bias just won’t allow you to acknowledge that UM would be just fine in the MWC

See AZDoc's post. My view comes from having talked to coaches in MT, college and high school.

 

[hm.grwn.grizfan]

That first statement is just flat out false. UMs current roster puts them at around .500 in the current mountain west, and if Lucas Johnson plays well enough the current roster could play well enough to be top 6 in MWC. My next favorite team after UM is Wyoming and I watch mountain west football religiously….. have for years. With a couple more depth pieces UM would be competing with the top 6 teams annually. Your bias just won’t allow you to acknowledge that UM would be just fine in the MWC

See AZDoc's post. My view comes from having talked to coaches in MT, college and high school.

I saw his post, I just disagree. Two of the shittiest MWC teams in Colorado State and UNLV were within a score or two in most all of their MWC games last season. One was beat by EWU and the other was shitstomped by SDSU (jackrabbits), two teams with 22 less scholarships. I’m not saying we would light the MWC on fire year one, I’m saying we would be In every single game year one and going about .500 out of the gate. Add 22 extra players and we’re in business. That’s just my opinion on the matter.

 

[AZGrizFan]

It’s hard for me to believe that our football team can’t compete against Mountain West teams. A Montana football team that went to Seattle last year and beat the stuffing out of Washingtons football team.We might be 6-6 in year one, however, in year three, we will compete for the Mountain West championship. Now, for the Montana kids———Montana has many, many high school players that are gifted with natural talent. Bobby is the master of developing this talent and will continue after we are FBS. These kids will play for Montana in the Mountain West along with outstanding recruits from elsewhere. UM has our doors open for out of state and foreign students as well as Montana students which contributes to the university environment.We want to attract the best students possible, not protect Montana students. The same philosophy should apply to all UM athletic teams, including football.

My impression is that at least some of the board of regents want the sports programs of the universities and colleges to give considerable opportunity to MT kids. Yes, I understand how that is not true in many/most other states.

So it's the BOR that wants more MT kids on the team, not you?

 

[AZDoc]

See AZDoc's post. My view comes from having talked to coaches in MT, college and high school.

I saw his post, I just disagree. Two of the shittiest MWC teams in Colorado State and UNLV were within a score or two in most all of their MWC games last season. One was beat by EWU and the other was shitstomped by SDSU (jackrabbits), two teams with 22 less scholarships. I’m not saying we would light the MWC on fire year one, I’m saying we would be In every single game year one and going about .500 out of the gate. Add 22 extra players and we’re in business. That’s just my opinion on the matter.

I don't disagree that they could compete for .500. I guess to clarify my post, compete for MWC championships. That's really what I meant. But please tell me out of the current 12 teams, who the Griz would beat this year? I would say maybe 3. UNLV, Hawaii, New Mexico. They would be competitive with maybe 2 others: Wyoming, CSU. The other 7 are losses. Again, I was also talking a watered down...take out Boise and SDSU for sure. Then, sure, maybe in a few years they can compete for the top. Can't go on last year, CSU was garbage and actually will (should) be much improved, that's why they are in the maybe category.

 

[AZDoc]

I saw his post, I just disagree. Two of the shittiest MWC teams in Colorado State and UNLV were within a score or two in most all of their MWC games last season. One was beat by EWU and the other was shitstomped by SDSU (jackrabbits), two teams with 22 less scholarships. I’m not saying we would light the MWC on fire year one, I’m saying we would be In every single game year one and going about .500 out of the gate. Add 22 extra players and we’re in business. That’s just my opinion on the matter.

I don't disagree that they could compete for .500. I guess to clarify my post, compete for MWC championships. That's really what I meant. But please tell me out of the current 12 teams, who the Griz would beat this year? I would say maybe 3. UNLV, Hawaii, New Mexico. They would be competitive with maybe 2 others: Wyoming, CSU. The other 7 are losses. Again, I was also talking a watered down...take out Boise and SDSU for sure. Then, sure, maybe in a few years they can compete for the top. Can't go on last year, CSU was garbage and actually will (should) be much improved, that's why they are in the maybe category.

And again...I want them to move up.

 

[AZDoc]

See AZDoc's post. My view comes from having talked to coaches in MT, college and high school.

I saw his post, I just disagree. Two of the shittiest MWC teams in Colorado State and UNLV were within a score or two in most all of their MWC games last season. One was beat by EWU and the other was shitstomped by SDSU (jackrabbits), two teams with 22 less scholarships. I’m not saying we would light the MWC on fire year one, I’m saying we would be In every single game year one and going about .500 out of the gate. Add 22 extra players and we’re in business. That’s just my opinion on the matter.

I would also contend that with the starters, yes they would be OK. Once you get backups, it goes down hill...especially line play. People complain about the OL...and rightfully so. It is what separates teams. I would argue that overall, most of the MTN West OLs are better than the Griz top to bottom. Moving up would potentially make that a moot point as there would be "better" recruits, but it would take a bit of growing pains for it to happen.

 

[AZGrizFan]

I don't disagree that they could compete for .500. I guess to clarify my post, compete for MWC championships. That's really what I meant. But please tell me out of the current 12 teams, who the Griz would beat this year? I would say maybe 3. UNLV, Hawaii, New Mexico. They would be competitive with maybe 2 others: Wyoming, CSU. The other 7 are losses. Again, I was also talking a watered down...take out Boise and SDSU for sure. Then, sure, maybe in a few years they can compete for the top. Can't go on last year, CSU was garbage and actually will (should) be much improved, that's why they are in the maybe category.

And again...I want them to move up.

Are you saying in their CURRENT state? Because with a full slate of scholarships I would expect them to be able to compete with every team in the conference. And after last year's win in Seattle, how can you just pencil in 7 losses right off the bat?

 

[hm.grwn.grizfan]

I saw his post, I just disagree. Two of the shittiest MWC teams in Colorado State and UNLV were within a score or two in most all of their MWC games last season. One was beat by EWU and the other was shitstomped by SDSU (jackrabbits), two teams with 22 less scholarships. I’m not saying we would light the MWC on fire year one, I’m saying we would be In every single game year one and going about .500 out of the gate. Add 22 extra players and we’re in business. That’s just my opinion on the matter.

I don't disagree that they could compete for .500. I guess to clarify my post, compete for MWC championships. That's really what I meant. But please tell me out of the current 12 teams, who the Griz would beat this year? I would say maybe 3. UNLV, Hawaii, New Mexico. They would be competitive with maybe 2 others: Wyoming, CSU. The other 7 are losses. Again, I was also talking a watered down...take out Boise and SDSU for sure. Then, sure, maybe in a few years they can compete for the top. Can't go on last year, CSU was garbage and actually will (should) be much improved, that's why they are in the maybe category.

Ok let’s go off this years Wyoming conference slate and see where we end up if we were to substitute Montana into their schedule. This year the cowboys play Air Force game one. I’ll pencil that in as a loss for UM but it would be a competitive game IMO. UM has historically struggled with that offense though so I’ll say loss. Then they play San Jose which is a game I think we win followed by the New Mexico lobos, another game we win IMO. Then we take a loss vs Utah state in a competitive game. Toss up vs Hawaii, win vs Colorado state, toss up vs Fresno and loss vs Boise. Tallying it up that puts my guess at worst case where we lose the toss ups at 3-5 in conference. Wyoming also plays Illinois (loss), Tulsa (win) and norther Colorado (win). That puts us at 5-6 year one if we lost every toss up. Not great but not bad for having 22 less scholarships either. Of course this is all hypothetical.

 

[Pounder]

I was told years ago that one of the main reasons Boise St. succeeded in moving up and Idaho didn't, was because Boise was able to raise so much more money initially and on an ongoing basis. I don't see any examples of big athletic dollar commitments from companies around Missoula or MT. There are a decent number of good individual financial supporters, but I don't see many, if any, of them stepping up with multiple 7 figure donations to fund the initial phase and the ongoing operations. $5 million or so of additional annual conference/tv revenue doesn't fund any of the initial costs, and doesn't come close to funding the necessary ongoing , increase gap in the necessary budget increase to complete successfully in the MW.

It’s a fair assessment of Boise, but I think there’s a bit more. The transition to the Big West cleaned the slate… UI had more of a history of success in the Big Sky, but once both schools land in the Big West, the recruiting area grew, more kids found out that Boise is kind of an actual city and Moscow is a long way from anywhere… except Pullman. Idaho did win the first game in Boise after the move, won one of the next two, and haven’t beaten Boise since.

Not to mention the Kibbie Dome… though I might have a sliver of understanding of why some gamers like to make that their home stadium. Weird cult following.

Boise State’s ability to grow is another matter. The Big West was definitely FBS-lite in a more than suitable facility and a good fan base, so they could build resources over a few years with an eye on waiting for the WAC to call. After the WAC/MWC split, Boise was in position to join the WAC, endure travel for a while, and some years later, eventually got a Mountain West commitment. Then they got greedy with that Big East stunt, but that might have got them an unbalanced TV contract with the MWC… for several years. Now… not as much. The lack of a nearby “tweener” conference could be a problem for Montana because it’s probably a steeper transition than when Boise did it.

BTW… the competitive issue? BSU went 2-10 their first year in FBS. You find out that some of those schools you play up when you’re FCS, when you end up in the same conference, THEN they take you seriously. Be prepared to factor that in your calculations.

 

[CatGrad-UMGradStu]

I was told years ago that one of the main reasons Boise St. succeeded in moving up and Idaho didn't, was because Boise was able to raise so much more money initially and on an ongoing basis. I don't see any examples of big athletic dollar commitments from companies around Missoula or MT. There are a decent number of good individual financial supporters, but I don't see many, if any, of them stepping up with multiple 7 figure donations to fund the initial phase and the ongoing operations. $5 million or so of additional annual conference/tv revenue doesn't fund any of the initial costs, and doesn't come close to funding the necessary ongoing , increase gap in the necessary budget increase to complete successfully in the MW.

It’s a fair assessment of Boise, but I think there’s a bit more. The transition to the Big West cleaned the slate… UI had more of a history of success in the Big Sky, but once both schools land in the Big West, the recruiting area grew, more kids found out that Boise is kind of an actual city and Moscow is a long way from anywhere… except Pullman. Idaho did win the first game in Boise after the move, won one of the next two, and haven’t beaten Boise since.

Not to mention the Kibbie Dome… though I might have a sliver of understanding of why some gamers like to make that their home stadium. Weird cult following.

Boise State’s ability to grow is another matter. The Big West was definitely FBS-lite in a more than suitable facility and a good fan base, so they could build resources over a few years with an eye on waiting for the WAC to call. After the WAC/MWC split, Boise was in position to join the WAC, endure travel for a while, and some years later, eventually got a Mountain West commitment. Then they got greedy with that Big East stunt, but that might have got them an unbalanced TV contract with the MWC… for several years. Now… not as much.

BTW… the competitive issue? BSU went 2-10 their first year in FBS. You find out that some of those schools you play up when you’re FCS, when you end up in the same conference, THEN they take you seriously. Be prepared to factor that in your calculations.

Don't forget this:

https://www.espn.com/college-sports/story/_/id/6966240/ncaa-hands-boise-state-broncos-three-years-probation-scholarship-reduction

The NCAA didn't care about the crap going on outside the Power 5 unless it really upset the Power 5 in any shape or form like their supposed basketball tournament.

 

[SoldierGriz]

I don't disagree that they could compete for .500. I guess to clarify my post, compete for MWC championships. That's really what I meant. But please tell me out of the current 12 teams, who the Griz would beat this year? I would say maybe 3. UNLV, Hawaii, New Mexico. They would be competitive with maybe 2 others: Wyoming, CSU. The other 7 are losses. Again, I was also talking a watered down...take out Boise and SDSU for sure. Then, sure, maybe in a few years they can compete for the top. Can't go on last year, CSU was garbage and actually will (should) be much improved, that's why they are in the maybe category.

Ok let’s go off this years Wyoming conference slate and see where we end up if we were to substitute Montana into their schedule. This year the cowboys play Air Force game one. I’ll pencil that in as a loss for UM but it would be a competitive game IMO. UM has historically struggled with that offense though so I’ll say loss. Then they play San Jose which is a game I think we win followed by the New Mexico lobos, another game we win IMO. Then we take a loss vs Utah state in a competitive game. Toss up vs Hawaii, win vs Colorado state, toss up vs Fresno and loss vs Boise. Tallying it up that puts my guess at worst case where we lose the toss ups at 3-5 in conference. Wyoming also plays Illinois (loss), Tulsa (win) and norther Colorado (win). That puts us at 5-6 year one if we lost every toss up. Not great but not bad for having 22 less scholarships either. Of course this is all hypothetical.

Griz win maybe 2 games on that slate. They beat No Col and New Mexico. There is absolutely no way they beat Tulsa. The only toss up is San Jose State. Air Force beats the Griz by 20+.

The Washington win last year was special. Teams look past lesser opponents and the lesser opponents often treat these games as their "super bowls."

But, shouldn't be fooled by this...the MWC conference slate is considerably harder than the BSC...week in and week out.

Not saying the Griz with additional scholarships cannot compete...but, not in current form.

 

[CDAGRIZ]

Does anyone have a list or partial list of MT players who have gone FBS in the last, say, 10-15 years? Not talking about guys who got offers from New Mexico State or played a year at Colorado State. How many MT guys have gone FBS and contributed at that level in that timeframe?

 

[CatGrad-UMGradStu]

Does anyone have a list or partial list of MT players who have gone FBS in the last, say, 10-15 years? Not talking about guys who got offers from New Mexico State or played a year at Colorado State. How many MT guys have gone FBS and contributed at that level in that timeframe?

The only one I can think of is the kid from Bozeangeles high who went to Washington and is playing for Seattle now.

 

[CatGrad-UMGradStu]

Does anyone have a list or partial list of MT players who have gone FBS in the last, say, 10-15 years? Not talking about guys who got offers from New Mexico State or played a year at Colorado State. How many MT guys have gone FBS and contributed at that level in that timeframe?

The only one I can think of is the kid from Bozeangeles high who went to Washington and is playing for Seattle now.

How long ago did the kid from Columbus play in Fort Collins and then the pros?

 

[hm.grwn.grizfan]

Ok let’s go off this years Wyoming conference slate and see where we end up if we were to substitute Montana into their schedule. This year the cowboys play Air Force game one. I’ll pencil that in as a loss for UM but it would be a competitive game IMO. UM has historically struggled with that offense though so I’ll say loss. Then they play San Jose which is a game I think we win followed by the New Mexico lobos, another game we win IMO. Then we take a loss vs Utah state in a competitive game. Toss up vs Hawaii, win vs Colorado state, toss up vs Fresno and loss vs Boise. Tallying it up that puts my guess at worst case where we lose the toss ups at 3-5 in conference. Wyoming also plays Illinois (loss), Tulsa (win) and norther Colorado (win). That puts us at 5-6 year one if we lost every toss up. Not great but not bad for having 22 less scholarships either. Of course this is all hypothetical.

Griz win maybe 2 games on that slate. They beat No Col and New Mexico. There is absolutely no way they beat Tulsa. The only toss up is San Jose State. Air Force beats the Griz by 20+.

The Washington win last year was special. Teams look past lesser opponents and the lesser opponents often treat these games as their "super bowls."

But, shouldn't be fooled by this...the MWC conference slate is considerably harder than the BSC...week in and week out.

Not saying the Griz with additional scholarships cannot compete...but, not in current form.

Tulsa?! You mean the Tulsa that lost to UC Davis last year? Yeah we would definitely lose that game :roll: and San Jose?! The same San Jose state that got their shit pushed in by a putrid colorado state team. Yeah no….we win that game too. Dude, I watch a shitload of MWC football and there are only 4 teams in that entire conference that are capable of actually drubbing Montana by 3-4 scores on any given Saturday, and that’s pushing it.