Brother Bear said:
Throw out the game @ Washington (as the committee will do)
IF the Griz win out and get to 8-3...
They would be 3-1 on the road in FCS and Big Sky Conference Play.
They would be 5-1 at home and 3-1 in Big Sky Conference Play.
They would have won 6 out of their last 7 and won last 3 games in a row.
They would have a signature win against NAU who at the time was #9 in the country in the COMMITTEE's EYES. People are forgetting the fact the Griz started the game with their 3rd string QB and switched to the 4th string QB mid-way through the 1st quarter. What a gutsy win. People want to discount the Griz win because the starter for NAU at QB was tossed in the game, SERIOUSLY... the Griz lost their starting QB in game 3 of the season and played this game with a Reciever at QB! NAU had their chance and didn't get it done. You can't discount the head to head match-up between these schools if they both finish 8-3. Eastern also had their chances this year (yes they beat the Griz) but they dropped games they needed to win. The Griz won the games they needed to win.
Their lone loss (Griz) at home would be to EWU who at the time was ranked #11. Griz were up 24-7 and lost by a touchdown at the very end with their freshman QB making his first ever start.
Their lone loss (Griz) on the road would be at Weber State (again ranked team) and might be the best team in the Big Sky.
The Griz had a game scheduled this year with McNeese State but had to find a replacement game for that. The Griz played at Washington, one of the top teams in all of college football.
For anyone that truly follows FCS football, the Big Sky is one of the best conferences out there. Yes the unbalanced schedule and amount of teams in the conference is crazy but watch the other teams with similar records out there.
In terms of the Griz, the Griz are a playoff caliber team. At 8-3 when comparing them to (NAU, EWU and other teams trying to get in the playoffs) the Griz resume stacks up quite nicely. Have you seen the schedules the other teams have played? If the Griz end up at 8-3 they should NO QUESTION be in the playoffs, in my opinion. It is also my belief that the Big Sky should have 4 teams in the playoffs, but it just depends how the final 2 weeks shakes out across the FCS landscape.
This is a good post and is well thought out. I agree with everything you said, but I'm also a biased Griz fan. I still think the committee (non biased, hopefully) could ef it all up. Here is why, I'll play devils advocate....this is of course assuming both teams get to 8-3 and Big Sky only gets in 3 teams:
...................Team A.....................Team B
Record...........8-3...........................8-3
Conf record.....7-1...........................6-2
Home record....5-1...........................5-1
Road Record.....3-2...........................3-2
Win Streak.......2..............................3
Signature wins...ISU, SUU....................NAU
Strength of schedule favors Team A
Conference standing favors Team A
National standing favors Team A
Heads up win favors Team B
I'm assuming on paper, this is what the committee looks at for the most part. Do you see why I'd be hesitant to let them make that call?
When it's this close, I'm sure they drill down further to simple rating system, shared opponents, and what exactly went down in the heads up match up. Not sure if that favors Griz the deeper they go or not. My guess is probably not. We do not want this scenario folks, trust me. NAU needs to lose one of their final 2.
