GRIZ Playoff chances....

[marceagfan5]

Throw out the game @ Washington (as the committee will do)

IF the Griz win out and get to 8-3...

They would be 3-1 on the road in FCS and Big Sky Conference Play.
They would be 5-1 at home and 3-1 in Big Sky Conference Play.
They would have won 6 out of their last 7 and won last 3 games in a row.
They would have a signature win against NAU who at the time was #9 in the country in the COMMITTEE's EYES. People are forgetting the fact the Griz started the game with their 3rd string QB and switched to the 4th string QB mid-way through the 1st quarter. What a gutsy win. People want to discount the Griz win because the starter for NAU at QB was tossed in the game, SERIOUSLY... the Griz lost their starting QB in game 3 of the season and played this game with a Reciever at QB! NAU had their chance and didn't get it done. You can't discount the head to head match-up between these schools if they both finish 8-3. Eastern also had their chances this year (yes they beat the Griz) but they dropped games they needed to win. The Griz won the games they needed to win.

Their lone loss (Griz) at home would be to EWU who at the time was ranked #11. Griz were up 24-7 and lost by a touchdown at the very end with their freshman QB making his first ever start.

Their lone loss (Griz) on the road would be at Weber State (again ranked team) and might be the best team in the Big Sky.

The Griz had a game scheduled this year with McNeese State but had to find a replacement game for that. The Griz played at Washington, one of the top teams in all of college football.

For anyone that truly follows FCS football, the Big Sky is one of the best conferences out there. Yes the unbalanced schedule and amount of teams in the conference is crazy but watch the other teams with similar records out there.

In terms of the Griz, the Griz are a playoff caliber team. At 8-3 when comparing them to (NAU, EWU and other teams trying to get in the playoffs) the Griz resume stacks up quite nicely. Have you seen the schedules the other teams have played? If the Griz end up at 8-3 they should NO QUESTION be in the playoffs, in my opinion. It is also my belief that the Big Sky should have 4 teams in the playoffs, but it just depends how the final 2 weeks shakes out across the FCS landscape.

Good post...but you also have to consider if NAU drops another one then it doesn’t give the griz any quality wins (top 25) and the griz didnt play the big sky champ (most likely) SUU.

However I don’t think there is a chance the committee leaves out an 8-3 griz team

 

[Brother Bear]

When the Griz beat NAU they were #9 in the Country by the Committee at that time. That is a quality win. Every time the Griz win a game, i like how everyone says oh that team wasn't very good. But if a team beats the Griz, "oh that team is the greatest", lol

 

[HelenaHandBasket]

When the Griz beat NAU they were #9 in the Country by the Committee at that time. That is a quality win. Every time the Griz win a game, i like how everyone says oh that team wasn't very good. But if a team beats the Griz, "oh that team is the greatest", lol

The point, quality wins are determined by the final record, not so much what they were ranked at game time.

 

[Grizzly Oredigger]

The foxsports one is whacked and they obviously don't realize that the first round the NCAA will not have two teams play each other that are in the same conference.

(Sorry if this was already answered...too many pages in this thread) Two teams from the same conference can play each other in the first round if they didn't meet during the regular season. If SUU doesn't get a seed, they could be coming to Missoula potentially in the 1st round.

 

[marceagfan5]

When the Griz beat NAU they were #9 in the Country by the Committee at that time. That is a quality win. Every time the Griz win a game, i like how everyone says oh that team wasn't very good. But if a team beats the Griz, "oh that team is the greatest", lol

UND was a top 10 team to start the year...

if NAU finishes 6-5, not a chance that’s a quality win...just like MSUs win over UND early on

 

[blackfoot griz]

I get that we need to win out to have a chance to get in the playoffs. One concern-with all of the chatter of a "quality loss" -- if we need MSU to beat NAU to help us make the playoffs, wouldn't a MSU loss to NAU then be perceived in the eyes of MSU fans as the ultimate "quality loss?s? Help me sort this out!

 

[grzz]

The foxsports one is whacked and they obviously don't realize that the first round the NCAA will not have two teams play each other that are in the same conference.

(Sorry if this was already answered...too many pages in this thread) Two teams from the same conference can play each other in the first round if they didn't meet during the regular season. If SUU doesn't get a seed, they could be coming to Missoula potentially in the 1st round.

Yes. Also discussed is if SUU wins the conference and they are matched with UM, the game will most likely be held at Southern Utah because in that scenario a conference champion simply has to provide the minimum bid.

 

[HelenaHandBasket]

The foxsports one is whacked and they obviously don't realize that the first round the NCAA will not have two teams play each other that are in the same conference.

(Sorry if this was already answered...too many pages in this thread) Two teams from the same conference can play each other in the first round if they didn't meet during the regular season. If SUU doesn't get a seed, they could be coming to Missoula potentially in the 1st round.

Or the Griz could end up going to SUU.

 

[HelenaHandBasket]

I get that we need to win out to have a chance to get in the playoffs. One concern-with all of the chatter of a "quality loss" -- if we need MSU to beat NAU to help us make the playoffs, wouldn't a MSU loss to NAU then be perceived in the eyes of MSU fans as the ultimate "quality loss?s? Help me sort this out!

Don't need MSU to beat NAU.

 

[HookedonGriz]

I get that we need to win out to have a chance to get in the playoffs. One concern-with all of the chatter of a "quality loss" -- if we need MSU to beat NAU to help us make the playoffs, wouldn't a MSU loss to NAU then be perceived in the eyes of MSU fans as the ultimate "quality loss?s? Help me sort this out!

All MSU losses are quality losses It's how they roll over there. Remember, they have arrived, they own the state, and they will always be better next year...just wait for next year.

 

[Grisly Fan]

I get that we need to win out to have a chance to get in the playoffs. One concern-with all of the chatter of a "quality loss" -- if we need MSU to beat NAU to help us make the playoffs, wouldn't a MSU loss to NAU then be perceived in the eyes of MSU fans as the ultimate "quality loss?s? Help me sort this out!

All MSU losses are quality losses It's how they roll over there. Remember, they have arrived, they own the state, and they will always be better next year...just wait for next year.

Just like Linus standing out in the pumpkin patch! But seriously, they do have the most sincere shit pond of anybody in the country....

 

[WILDCATFAN]

... I find it unlikely that Montana will ever play another Big Sky team as an OOC.

One of the biggest factors is cost of travel. Cal Poly's coach said one of the reasons he likes playing Weber is because of how easy and cheap it is to fly into Ogden. I can see Weber continuing to schedule other Big Sky schools because of this.

As far as other Big Sky schools traveling to Montana for a Pay game I don't think so. If a Big Sky schools is going to play a money game they are going to play an FBS team. Then they are going to either schedule a H&H with another FCS program or play a few lower division games, whatever they can get afterwards. I just don't see and Big Sky teams playing @ Montana for a money game.

Actually, UM did recently play a couple Big Sky OOC games. In 2013, UM played at North Dakota as an OOC game. In 2015, they played Cal Poly in Missoula as an OOC.

As it happens, before the Great West Conference broke up after the 2011 season, the Griz had played Cal Poly three times, and SUU and UC-Davis once each -- while they were members of that conference.

I stand corrected, though wasn't the UND game scheduled before they joined the Big Sky?

I believe that both those games had some agreement prior to either joining the BSC.

I kind of thought as much.

 

[AZGrizFan]

Throw out the game @ Washington (as the committee will do)

IF the Griz win out and get to 8-3...

They would be 3-1 on the road in FCS and Big Sky Conference Play.
They would be 5-1 at home and 3-1 in Big Sky Conference Play.
They would have won 6 out of their last 7 and won last 3 games in a row.
They would have a signature win against NAU who at the time was #9 in the country in the COMMITTEE's EYES. People are forgetting the fact the Griz started the game with their 3rd string QB and switched to the 4th string QB mid-way through the 1st quarter. What a gutsy win. People want to discount the Griz win because the starter for NAU at QB was tossed in the game, SERIOUSLY... the Griz lost their starting QB in game 3 of the season and played this game with a Reciever at QB! NAU had their chance and didn't get it done. You can't discount the head to head match-up between these schools if they both finish 8-3. Eastern also had their chances this year (yes they beat the Griz) but they dropped games they needed to win. The Griz won the games they needed to win.

Their lone loss (Griz) at home would be to EWU who at the time was ranked #11. Griz were up 24-7 and lost by a touchdown at the very end with their freshman QB making his first ever start.

Their lone loss (Griz) on the road would be at Weber State (again ranked team) and might be the best team in the Big Sky.

The Griz had a game scheduled this year with McNeese State but had to find a replacement game for that. The Griz played at Washington, one of the top teams in all of college football.

For anyone that truly follows FCS football, the Big Sky is one of the best conferences out there. Yes the unbalanced schedule and amount of teams in the conference is crazy but watch the other teams with similar records out there.

In terms of the Griz, the Griz are a playoff caliber team. At 8-3 when comparing them to (NAU, EWU and other teams trying to get in the playoffs) the Griz resume stacks up quite nicely. Have you seen the schedules the other teams have played? If the Griz end up at 8-3 they should NO QUESTION be in the playoffs, in my opinion. It is also my belief that the Big Sky should have 4 teams in the playoffs, but it just depends how the final 2 weeks shakes out across the FCS landscape.

Good post...but you also have to consider if NAU drops another one then it doesn’t give the griz any quality wins (top 25) and the griz didnt play the big sky champ (most likely) SUU.

However I don’t think there is a chance the committee leaves out an 8-3 griz team

And that's all that really needs to be said. An 8-3 Griz team will not be out of the playoffs.

 

[Spanky]

The most important game of the year is next week in Bozeman. We owe the Bobcats a good old fashioned whipping.

 

[i_the_sky]

I Can't stand it! = "If we win out we're in BS"? What ever happened to knowing you''re in?? I MISS THE GOOD OL' DAYS!!!

 

[tnt]

I Can't stand it! = "If we win out we're in BS"? What ever happened to knowing you''re in?? I MISS THE GOOD OL' DAYS!!!

Of course it was easier when everybody played everybody else in the conference. But the expansion to the 13 teams even made the autobid questionable............. Its highly possible 2 teams could go 8-0 conference and never platy each other

 

[IdaGriz01]

I Can't stand it! = "If we win out we're in BS"? What ever happened to knowing you''re in?? I MISS THE GOOD OL' DAYS!!!

Of course it was easier when everybody played everybody else in the conference. But the expansion to the 13 teams even made the autobid questionable............. Its highly possible 2 teams could go 8-0 conference and never play each other

Well, so far that has happened only once ... last year. EWU and North Dakota both ended up 8-0, but never played each other. (Actually, the last time the two played was 2014 ... although I see they're playing today.) Anyway, EWU won the tie-breaker and got the auto-bid.

The first year of the expansion, 2012, the Big Sky had co-champions: EWU (7-1) and MSU (7-1). However, the two did play during the year (EWU won).

 

[Bertram]

A team to keep an eye these next two weekends is North Carolina A&T (6-0) if they don't end up winning their Conference (MEAC) and going on to the SWAC Vs MEAC Celebration Bowl; they have impressed the selection committee enough to grant them an at large bid. I don't see the MEAC fielding a playoff team otherwise.

Exactamundo! The good news is, they play NC Central at home rather than on the road. Last year, NC A&T lost on the road to NC Central ... and ended up with an at-large play-off bid. And got beat up by Richmond, 39-10, in the first round.

Savannah State fumbled the opening kickoff just now vs North Carolina A&T two plays later 7 - 0 is the score.

 

[MissoulaMarinerFan]

Throw out the game @ Washington (as the committee will do)

IF the Griz win out and get to 8-3...

They would be 3-1 on the road in FCS and Big Sky Conference Play.
They would be 5-1 at home and 3-1 in Big Sky Conference Play.
They would have won 6 out of their last 7 and won last 3 games in a row.
They would have a signature win against NAU who at the time was #9 in the country in the COMMITTEE's EYES. People are forgetting the fact the Griz started the game with their 3rd string QB and switched to the 4th string QB mid-way through the 1st quarter. What a gutsy win. People want to discount the Griz win because the starter for NAU at QB was tossed in the game, SERIOUSLY... the Griz lost their starting QB in game 3 of the season and played this game with a Reciever at QB! NAU had their chance and didn't get it done. You can't discount the head to head match-up between these schools if they both finish 8-3. Eastern also had their chances this year (yes they beat the Griz) but they dropped games they needed to win. The Griz won the games they needed to win.

Their lone loss (Griz) at home would be to EWU who at the time was ranked #11. Griz were up 24-7 and lost by a touchdown at the very end with their freshman QB making his first ever start.

Their lone loss (Griz) on the road would be at Weber State (again ranked team) and might be the best team in the Big Sky.

The Griz had a game scheduled this year with McNeese State but had to find a replacement game for that. The Griz played at Washington, one of the top teams in all of college football.

For anyone that truly follows FCS football, the Big Sky is one of the best conferences out there. Yes the unbalanced schedule and amount of teams in the conference is crazy but watch the other teams with similar records out there.

In terms of the Griz, the Griz are a playoff caliber team. At 8-3 when comparing them to (NAU, EWU and other teams trying to get in the playoffs) the Griz resume stacks up quite nicely. Have you seen the schedules the other teams have played? If the Griz end up at 8-3 they should NO QUESTION be in the playoffs, in my opinion. It is also my belief that the Big Sky should have 4 teams in the playoffs, but it just depends how the final 2 weeks shakes out across the FCS landscape.

This is a good post and is well thought out. I agree with everything you said, but I'm also a biased Griz fan. I still think the committee (non biased, hopefully) could ef it all up. Here is why, I'll play devils advocate....this is of course assuming both teams get to 8-3 and Big Sky only gets in 3 teams:


...................Team A.....................Team B

Record...........8-3...........................8-3
Conf record.....7-1...........................6-2
Home record....5-1...........................5-1
Road Record.....3-2...........................3-2
Win Streak.......2..............................3
Signature wins...ISU, SUU....................NAU
Strength of schedule favors Team A
Conference standing favors Team A
National standing favors Team A
Heads up win favors Team B

I'm assuming on paper, this is what the committee looks at for the most part. Do you see why I'd be hesitant to let them make that call?

When it's this close, I'm sure they drill down further to simple rating system, shared opponents, and what exactly went down in the heads up match up. Not sure if that favors Griz the deeper they go or not. My guess is probably not. We do not want this scenario folks, trust me. NAU needs to lose one of their final 2.

I've seen this a couple of times. How in God's name is ISU a "signature win?"

 

[MissoulaMarinerFan]

Throw out the game @ Washington (as the committee will do)

IF the Griz win out and get to 8-3...

They would be 3-1 on the road in FCS and Big Sky Conference Play.
They would be 5-1 at home and 3-1 in Big Sky Conference Play.
They would have won 6 out of their last 7 and won last 3 games in a row.
They would have a signature win against NAU who at the time was #9 in the country in the COMMITTEE's EYES. People are forgetting the fact the Griz started the game with their 3rd string QB and switched to the 4th string QB mid-way through the 1st quarter. What a gutsy win. People want to discount the Griz win because the starter for NAU at QB was tossed in the game, SERIOUSLY... the Griz lost their starting QB in game 3 of the season and played this game with a Reciever at QB! NAU had their chance and didn't get it done. You can't discount the head to head match-up between these schools if they both finish 8-3. Eastern also had their chances this year (yes they beat the Griz) but they dropped games they needed to win. The Griz won the games they needed to win.

Their lone loss (Griz) at home would be to EWU who at the time was ranked #11. Griz were up 24-7 and lost by a touchdown at the very end with their freshman QB making his first ever start.

Their lone loss (Griz) on the road would be at Weber State (again ranked team) and might be the best team in the Big Sky.

The Griz had a game scheduled this year with McNeese State but had to find a replacement game for that. The Griz played at Washington, one of the top teams in all of college football.

For anyone that truly follows FCS football, the Big Sky is one of the best conferences out there. Yes the unbalanced schedule and amount of teams in the conference is crazy but watch the other teams with similar records out there.

In terms of the Griz, the Griz are a playoff caliber team. At 8-3 when comparing them to (NAU, EWU and other teams trying to get in the playoffs) the Griz resume stacks up quite nicely. Have you seen the schedules the other teams have played? If the Griz end up at 8-3 they should NO QUESTION be in the playoffs, in my opinion. It is also my belief that the Big Sky should have 4 teams in the playoffs, but it just depends how the final 2 weeks shakes out across the FCS landscape.

Good post...but you also have to consider if NAU drops another one then it doesn’t give the griz any quality wins (top 25) and the griz didnt play the big sky champ (most likely) SUU.

However I don’t think there is a chance the committee leaves out an 8-3 griz team

Only it does, because when the Griz played NAU the playoff committee had them at #9. Pretty sure they were ranked above the Griz as well at the time.