GRIZ Playoff chances....

[WILDCATFAN]

I've said it for years: This conference needs more teams that don't all play each other.
I'm sure this has been answered, but do BSC teams still play BSC teams in "non-conference" games?

Sure they do.

Davis and Portland scheduled a H&H.

Weber and Sacramento State played 4 straight non conference games against each other (2014-2017 seasons) because they were not scheduled to play each other those 4 seasons. Weber and Cal Poly just scheduled a H&H series for the 2018-19 seasons.

Truth is other Big Sky schools cant afford to bring the Valpo's and Savannahs of the FCS cross country for a guarantee game. So why not play a team from your own backyard that counts towards playoff eligibility?

In all honesty it's not a bad thing.

 

[TheRealJacks]

We are definitely not in at 7-4

We are not definitely in at 8-3 which I know is shocking. Craig Haley on his recent podcast said there isn't enough room for both UM and EWU this year from the big sky because of that log jam ahead of us. So essentially he was saying that the committee will be more apt to choose a 7-4 EWU team over a 8-3 Griz team based on strength of schedule and the EWU heads up win over us.

I know this sucks to hear and usually 8-3 is automatic, but too many other strange variables at play. We need to hope for an EWU loss or for the wheels to come off of NAU.

I think there is about 0.00% chance of this happening. They're saying losing to NDSU by 30 is better than beating Savannah St. by 30? f***, with that logic MSU should be a lock for the playoffs. As should Indiana State and Missouri State.

I think the thought is that if eastern played Savannah or valpo instead of NDSU they would also be 8 -3 right now and they own a head to head over the Griz in Missoula. Not sure that’s right but it’s where he’s probably coming from...

Using that train of thought, I want to suggest the Griz could be at least 9-2 if they played the same schedule as NAU. No EWU or Weber.

Doubt it, Griz would lose to Western Illinois and Illinois State. Ya know some real non-conference teams

 

[grzz]

I've said it for years: This conference needs more teams that don't all play each other.
I'm sure this has been answered, but do BSC teams still play BSC teams in "non-conference" games?

Sure they do.

Davis and Portland scheduled a H&H.

Weber and Sacramento State played 4 straight non conference games against each other (2014-2017 seasons) because they were not scheduled to play each other those 4 seasons. Weber and Cal Poly just scheduled a H&H series for the 2018-19 seasons.

Truth is other Big Sky schools cant afford to bring the Valpo's and Savannahs of the FCS cross country for a guarantee game. So why not play a team from your own backyard that counts towards playoff eligibility?

In all honesty it's not a bad thing.

I wonder, and this is just a guess, but I wonder if it has to do with return games. Would many of these Big Sky teams just take visits to WaGriz for a pay-out? From a financial standpoint, I doubt UM Athletics can afford, from a revenue standpoint, to go to UC Davis as an out of conference game. All out of conference games are either one and done, home and home with out of conference teams, or FBS money games. Probably more to it, but I bet this is a factor.

 

[AZGrizFan]

I think there is about 0.00% chance of this happening. They're saying losing to NDSU by 30 is better than beating Savannah St. by 30? f***, with that logic MSU should be a lock for the playoffs. As should Indiana State and Missouri State.

I think the thought is that if eastern played Savannah or valpo instead of NDSU they would also be 8 -3 right now and they own a head to head over the Griz in Missoula. Not sure that’s right but it’s where he’s probably coming from...

Using that train of thought, I want to suggest the Griz could be at least 9-2 if they played the same schedule as NAU. No EWU or Weber.

Doubt it, Griz would lose to Western Illinois and Illinois State. Ya know some real non-conference teams

:roll: Sure thing.

 

[HookedonGriz]

I did get some feedback from Colter, who is very dialed into this stuff. Here was his take:

- Big Sky will only get in 3 teams
- unless they absolutely melt down, both SUU and Weber will be in
- Griz need NAU to win for the Griz win over them to stay a quality win
- Griz also need NAU to lose so they don't steal the last spot from the Griz (catch 22 for sure)
- Griz absolutely need to win out and will more than likely still need some outside help from the big sky or FCS field


So like I was saying, the committee could mess this up if both the Griz and NAU finish 8-3. It's not an automatic this year folks. I wish it was but just too many variables. I think ideally we need NAU to blow up the Cats but then lose to SUU....that way they are 7-4 but they maintain their quality win status for our Griz.

I actually think an NAU loss to the Cats would definitely favor an 8-3 Griz team because in that scenario the Griz own the heads up win over NAU and the Griz would also have a win over a common opponent in MSU and it would knock NAU back to 4 losses. If big Sky takes 3 teams, all of that favors Griz as the 3rd team.

 

[Brother Bear]

Throw out the game @ Washington (as the committee will do)

IF the Griz win out and get to 8-3...

They would be 3-1 on the road in FCS and Big Sky Conference Play.
They would be 5-1 at home and 3-1 in Big Sky Conference Play.
They would have won 6 out of their last 7 and won last 3 games in a row.
They would have a signature win against NAU who at the time was #9 in the country in the COMMITTEE's EYES. People are forgetting the fact the Griz started the game with their 3rd string QB and switched to the 4th string QB mid-way through the 1st quarter. What a gutsy win. People want to discount the Griz win because the starter for NAU at QB was tossed in the game, SERIOUSLY... the Griz lost their starting QB in game 3 of the season and played this game with a Reciever at QB! NAU had their chance and didn't get it done. You can't discount the head to head match-up between these schools if they both finish 8-3. Eastern also had their chances this year (yes they beat the Griz) but they dropped games they needed to win. The Griz won the games they needed to win.

Their lone loss (Griz) at home would be to EWU who at the time was ranked #11. Griz were up 24-7 and lost by a touchdown at the very end with their freshman QB making his first ever start.

Their lone loss (Griz) on the road would be at Weber State (again ranked team) and might be the best team in the Big Sky.

The Griz had a game scheduled this year with McNeese State but had to find a replacement game for that. The Griz played at Washington, one of the top teams in all of college football.

For anyone that truly follows FCS football, the Big Sky is one of the best conferences out there. Yes the unbalanced schedule and amount of teams in the conference is crazy but watch the other teams with similar records out there.

In terms of the Griz, the Griz are a playoff caliber team. At 8-3 when comparing them to (NAU, EWU and other teams trying to get in the playoffs) the Griz resume stacks up quite nicely. Have you seen the schedules the other teams have played? If the Griz end up at 8-3 they should NO QUESTION be in the playoffs, in my opinion. It is also my belief that the Big Sky should have 4 teams in the playoffs, but it just depends how the final 2 weeks shakes out across the FCS landscape.

 

[HelenaHandBasket]

I think there is about 0.00% chance of this happening. They're saying losing to NDSU by 30 is better than beating Savannah St. by 30? f***, with that logic MSU should be a lock for the playoffs. As should Indiana State and Missouri State.

I think the thought is that if eastern played Savannah or valpo instead of NDSU they would also be 8 -3 right now and they own a head to head over the Griz in Missoula. Not sure that’s right but it’s where he’s probably coming from...

Using that train of thought, I want to suggest the Griz could be at least 9-2 if they played the same schedule as NAU. No EWU or Weber.

Doubt it, Griz would lose to Western Illinois and Illinois State. Ya know some real non-conference teams

Maybe...maybe not, but your assumption is not any more valid than the one I made in the post. The other thing is, a conference schedule like NAU's probably makes it easier to win the BSC auto-bid which makes the non-conference games moot.

 

[WILDCATFAN]

I've said it for years: This conference needs more teams that don't all play each other.
I'm sure this has been answered, but do BSC teams still play BSC teams in "non-conference" games?

Sure they do.

Davis and Portland scheduled a H&H.

Weber and Sacramento State played 4 straight non conference games against each other (2014-2017 seasons) because they were not scheduled to play each other those 4 seasons. Weber and Cal Poly just scheduled a H&H series for the 2018-19 seasons.

Truth is other Big Sky schools cant afford to bring the Valpo's and Savannahs of the FCS cross country for a guarantee game. So why not play a team from your own backyard that counts towards playoff eligibility?

In all honesty it's not a bad thing.

I wonder, and this is just a guess, but I wonder if it has to do with return games. Would many of these Big Sky teams just take visits to WaGriz for a pay-out? From a financial standpoint, I doubt UM Athletics can afford, from a revenue standpoint, to go to UC Davis as an out of conference game. All out of conference games are either one and done, home and home with out of conference teams, or FBS money games. Probably more to it, but I bet this is a factor.

I think so, im sure schools like Weber would love to schedule a h&h with the likes of Montana and Montana State, but they cant afford the price both Montana's would require for the sake of their sustainability. I find it unlikely that Montana will ever play another Big Sky team as an OOC.

One of the biggest factors is cost of travel. Cal Poly's coach said one of the reasons he likes playing Weber is because of how easy and cheap it is to fly into Ogden. I can see Weber continuing to schedule other Big Sky schools because of this.

As far as other Big Sky schools traveling to Montana for a Pay game I don't think so. If a Big Sky schools is going to play a money game they are going to play an FBS team. Then they are going to either schedule a H&H with another FCS program or play a few lower division games, whatever they can get afterwards. I just don't see and Big Sky teams playing @ Montana for a money game.

 

[jodcon]

Spin doctors in full force today, I look forward to more posts by Shower and Jackoff.

 

[IdahoGrizFan]

And Montana's Playoff picture just got a lot better when someone posted, "Jensen will Play"... LOL

 

[Grisly Fan]

Actually quite amazing that an 8-3 team might not make the playoffs even with the 24 team field. I know that there has been a lot of complaining about such a large number of teams but any smaller and the Griz would already be out.

 

[IdaGriz01]

... I find it unlikely that Montana will ever play another Big Sky team as an OOC.

One of the biggest factors is cost of travel. Cal Poly's coach said one of the reasons he likes playing Weber is because of how easy and cheap it is to fly into Ogden. I can see Weber continuing to schedule other Big Sky schools because of this.

As far as other Big Sky schools traveling to Montana for a Pay game I don't think so. If a Big Sky schools is going to play a money game they are going to play an FBS team. Then they are going to either schedule a H&H with another FCS program or play a few lower division games, whatever they can get afterwards. I just don't see and Big Sky teams playing @ Montana for a money game.

Actually, UM did recently play a couple Big Sky OOC games. In 2013, UM played at North Dakota as an OOC game. In 2015, they played Cal Poly in Missoula as an OOC.

As it happens, before the Great West Conference broke up after the 2011 season, the Griz had played Cal Poly three times, and SUU and UC-Davis once each -- while they were members of that conference.

 

[HookedonGriz]

Throw out the game @ Washington (as the committee will do)

IF the Griz win out and get to 8-3...

They would be 3-1 on the road in FCS and Big Sky Conference Play.
They would be 5-1 at home and 3-1 in Big Sky Conference Play.
They would have won 6 out of their last 7 and won last 3 games in a row.
They would have a signature win against NAU who at the time was #9 in the country in the COMMITTEE's EYES. People are forgetting the fact the Griz started the game with their 3rd string QB and switched to the 4th string QB mid-way through the 1st quarter. What a gutsy win. People want to discount the Griz win because the starter for NAU at QB was tossed in the game, SERIOUSLY... the Griz lost their starting QB in game 3 of the season and played this game with a Reciever at QB! NAU had their chance and didn't get it done. You can't discount the head to head match-up between these schools if they both finish 8-3. Eastern also had their chances this year (yes they beat the Griz) but they dropped games they needed to win. The Griz won the games they needed to win.

Their lone loss (Griz) at home would be to EWU who at the time was ranked #11. Griz were up 24-7 and lost by a touchdown at the very end with their freshman QB making his first ever start.

Their lone loss (Griz) on the road would be at Weber State (again ranked team) and might be the best team in the Big Sky.

The Griz had a game scheduled this year with McNeese State but had to find a replacement game for that. The Griz played at Washington, one of the top teams in all of college football.

For anyone that truly follows FCS football, the Big Sky is one of the best conferences out there. Yes the unbalanced schedule and amount of teams in the conference is crazy but watch the other teams with similar records out there.

In terms of the Griz, the Griz are a playoff caliber team. At 8-3 when comparing them to (NAU, EWU and other teams trying to get in the playoffs) the Griz resume stacks up quite nicely. Have you seen the schedules the other teams have played? If the Griz end up at 8-3 they should NO QUESTION be in the playoffs, in my opinion. It is also my belief that the Big Sky should have 4 teams in the playoffs, but it just depends how the final 2 weeks shakes out across the FCS landscape.

This is a good post and is well thought out. I agree with everything you said, but I'm also a biased Griz fan. I still think the committee (non biased, hopefully) could ef it all up. Here is why, I'll play devils advocate....this is of course assuming both teams get to 8-3 and Big Sky only gets in 3 teams:


...................Team A.....................Team B

Record...........8-3...........................8-3
Conf record.....7-1...........................6-2
Home record....5-1...........................5-1
Road Record.....3-2...........................3-2
Win Streak.......2..............................3
Signature wins...ISU, SUU....................NAU
Strength of schedule favors Team A
Conference standing favors Team A
National standing favors Team A
Heads up win favors Team B

I'm assuming on paper, this is what the committee looks at for the most part. Do you see why I'd be hesitant to let them make that call?

When it's this close, I'm sure they drill down further to simple rating system, shared opponents, and what exactly went down in the heads up match up. Not sure if that favors Griz the deeper they go or not. My guess is probably not. We do not want this scenario folks, trust me. NAU needs to lose one of their final 2.

 

[Allezchat]

Whoa whoa whoa. You guys talking like the MSU game will be a win for you....not so fast my friend.

Sorry, not sorry. You guys will lose to us. So best case, you go 1-1.

MSU and EWU do schedule each other as OOC games. Its because even though they aren't "rivals", the AD's wanted to continue the rivalry.

 

[HookedonGriz]

Whoa whoa whoa. You guys talking like the MSU game will be a win for you....not so fast my friend.

Sorry, not sorry. You guys will lose to us. So best case, you go 1-1.

MSU and EWU do schedule each other as OOC games. Its because even though they aren't "rivals", the AD's wanted to continue the rivalry.

Will be another good game. We have to assume that otherwise no playoffs for sure, that is all.

 

[WILDCATFAN]

... I find it unlikely that Montana will ever play another Big Sky team as an OOC.

One of the biggest factors is cost of travel. Cal Poly's coach said one of the reasons he likes playing Weber is because of how easy and cheap it is to fly into Ogden. I can see Weber continuing to schedule other Big Sky schools because of this.

As far as other Big Sky schools traveling to Montana for a Pay game I don't think so. If a Big Sky schools is going to play a money game they are going to play an FBS team. Then they are going to either schedule a H&H with another FCS program or play a few lower division games, whatever they can get afterwards. I just don't see and Big Sky teams playing @ Montana for a money game.

Actually, UM did recently play a couple Big Sky OOC games. In 2013, UM played at North Dakota as an OOC game. In 2015, they played Cal Poly in Missoula as an OOC.

As it happens, before the Great West Conference broke up after the 2011 season, the Griz had played Cal Poly three times, and SUU and UC-Davis once each -- while they were members of that conference.

I stand corrected, though wasn't the UND game scheduled before they joined the Big Sky?

 

[HelenaHandBasket]

Whoa whoa whoa. You guys talking like the MSU game will be a win for you....not so fast my friend.

Sorry, not sorry. You guys will lose to us. So best case, you go 1-1.

MSU and EWU do schedule each other as OOC games. Its because even though they aren't "rivals", the AD's wanted to continue the rivalry.

Think you missed the point of projecting what needs to happen for the Griz to make the playoffs. This thread doesn't necessarily address what people think will happen.

 

[AZDoc]

The argument has merit, but the issue is the BSC has stupid scheduling. Because if that, any conference record argument is an apples to oranges argument unless they play the exact same teams...which doesn’t happen. I honestly think a 7-4 ewu should go, but they won’t unless it all hits the fan the last 2 weeks. I’m hoping both teams win out as that improves both teams SOS

Not really. Teams can "control" their OOC schedule....Griz had McNeese scheduled, but we all know how that turned out. so they can control it only to a point. At the end of the day, you gotta beat who's in front of you...EWU didn't do that.

I just meant the conference records...and him thinking EWU should go instead at 7-4. I get the OOC this year. Sad part is can't win on that...if a D2, people get pissed, do a crappy FCS, people get pissed. I'd rather have a win against a crappy FCS than a D2. This year was not the norm, but I think an 8-3 Griz team goes instead of EWU if it's up for grabs. Then again, I hope they win out and both make it.

I'd rather have a crappy win than a blowout loss at home ala EWU.

Agreed, for many reasons.

 

[HelenaHandBasket]

... I find it unlikely that Montana will ever play another Big Sky team as an OOC.

One of the biggest factors is cost of travel. Cal Poly's coach said one of the reasons he likes playing Weber is because of how easy and cheap it is to fly into Ogden. I can see Weber continuing to schedule other Big Sky schools because of this.

As far as other Big Sky schools traveling to Montana for a Pay game I don't think so. If a Big Sky schools is going to play a money game they are going to play an FBS team. Then they are going to either schedule a H&H with another FCS program or play a few lower division games, whatever they can get afterwards. I just don't see and Big Sky teams playing @ Montana for a money game.

Actually, UM did recently play a couple Big Sky OOC games. In 2013, UM played at North Dakota as an OOC game. In 2015, they played Cal Poly in Missoula as an OOC.

As it happens, before the Great West Conference broke up after the 2011 season, the Griz had played Cal Poly three times, and SUU and UC-Davis once each -- while they were members of that conference.

I stand corrected, though wasn't the UND game scheduled before they joined the Big Sky?

I believe that both those games had some agreement prior to either joining the BSC.

 

[Brother Bear]

As everyone knows we can't have a repeat of this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=esBEd1YNmCY

Big game tomorrow, if Griz get the "W" then they get a chance to go play State with potential playoff spot on the line next week in Bozeman. I still believe Griz are in at 8-3 no problem.

As for who to cheer for tomorrow, it would be nice if MSU could pull the upset in Flagstaff, but an NAU win there doesn't hurt the Griz, IMO. NAU plays at Southern Utah next weekend in the final regular season game. So one of those teams will end the regular season with a loss. I think a couple helpful wins would potentially be a UC-Davis upset at home over Southern Utah and perhaps a poor showing by EWU in North Dakota tomorrow. I'm not sure EWU would be in over the Griz at this point. For the playoffs, i think what happens around the FCS tomorrow in other conferences will have more to say about the Griz chances than what happens in the Big Sky tomorrow unless some top BSC teams absolutely play terrible.