Final defensive stats - head scratcher

[Eriul]

No one anywhere has ever claimed that scoring offense decides games.

We had a better scoring offense than all but 1 of out opponents(ewu). Doesn't mean anything about the actual game we played though

And I don't think anyone suggested that the offense wasn't less than prolific @ times. But @ others it was just this side of pathetic. WEWU had two games with scores higher than 50 & three lower than forty. None lower than 34. Montana has one @ 20 & two in the teens. Had they met the "average, mean, mode, median score for all their games, they would have made the playoffs & perhaps might be talking about a round two game.

And no. Brady didn't play on defense, they have only themselves to blame. I've said before that I've made a handsome living understanding and utilizing relevant statistical analysis. But the first thing I learned was that we couldn't beat ourselves before we took on a competitor or none of the analysis was worth the space it took up. The wheels came off all-around, so we can talk about stats but none of them, besides wins/losses has any relevance to getting UM competitive now because they have to start @ the beginning, again.

For someone who claims to analyze statistics you clearly missed the whole reason the topic of the offense came up... specifically scoring offense... someone DID suggest it was "terrible." And 75 and Kem have mimicked that thought

Reading, again, is a skill. I made a handsome living understanding and utilizing relevant statistical analysis. The comment I read indicates an opinion regarding scoring in the red zone. Kem pointed out the obvious and you can interpret 75 as you would like, though he's likely correct in wondering about your skill in the language.

Again, the wheels came off and we're starting over, again. Nothing in the statistics is going to make me feel even the slightest bit better about that.

Sorry you guys don't understand that Scoring Offense has nothing to do with the Red Zone, Touchdown %, or anything along those lines. But it's ok. You are a guy who "gets a handsome living" understanding statistics yet ignoring the only statistic that matters in scoring offense XD

 

['68griz]

The only statistic that REALLY matters is the final score ... and the Griz had too many of those that were not in their favor.

 

[sdk.catfish]

Uhhh........ I don't think this thread is going anywhere. This is what happens when the lines become blurred between fan, fantasy and fanatical. Nobody is going to convince Eriul that his scoring statistics mean jack sh*t. Probably should just let this wad be shot up the elm tree for the piss ants eat it.

 

[UMGriz75]

Sorry you guys don't understand that Scoring Offense has nothing to do with the Red Zone, Touchdown %, or anything those lines. But it's ok. You are a guy who "gets a handsome living" understanding statistics yet ignoring the only statistic that matters in scoring offense XD

If you had the faintest idea what you were talking about, regarding "Scoring Offense," you would have analyzed it as follows:

1) For the first four conference games of the season, Montana was second in SO with 46.5 pts per game, EWU was first with 50.8. The Conference average was 30.

2) For the last four conference games of the season, Montana was eighth with 30 pts, EWU was first with 44.2. The Conference average was 32.

3) Montana had the largest change in Scoring Offense, with a -35.5% loss between the first four games and the last four games. The Conference average change was +12.1%.

EWU -21.2%
Cal Poly -22.8%
ISU +28.9%
MT State -5.3%
NAU +4.0%
North Dak -12.8%
NorCo +54.3%
PSU +34.7%
Sac State +55.1%
SUU +55.4%
UCS +3.9%
Weber -29.1%

Using your favorite metric, Scoring Offense, it is clear that Montana had the biggest collapse over the course of the season than any other conference team, and the difference wasn't even close. It was a complete rout; the team capability on offense collapsed, and the irony of that is that the high 62 pt ISU score is included, padding the "collapse" considerably.

That's what your statistic, properly used, shows.

 

[CV Griz Fan]

Uhhh........ I don't think this thread is going anywhere. This is what happens when the lines become blurred between fan, fantasy and fanatical. Nobody is going to convince Eriul that his scoring statistics mean jack sh*t. Probably should just let this wad be shot up the elm tree for the piss ants eat it.

His?

 

[sdk.catfish]

Sorry I assumed Eriul was male as I am not in tune with the major players on this forum. Regardless it was tacky on my part and I sincerely apologize.

 

[beaverboy]

Do the stats including all games or just big sky conference games. Remember how we ran up the score against real bad teams like Mississippi Valley. ISU in the second half and Sac St. Remember Bob likes to run up the score against bad teams, it pads his stats and his legendary accomplishments.

 

[Eriul]

Sorry you guys don't understand that Scoring Offense has nothing to do with the Red Zone, Touchdown %, or anything those lines. But it's ok. You are a guy who "gets a handsome living" understanding statistics yet ignoring the only statistic that matters in scoring offense XD

If you had the faintest idea what you were talking about, regarding "Scoring Offense," you would have analyzed it as follows:

1) For the first four conference games of the season, Montana was second in SO with 46.5 pts per game, EWU was first with 50.8. The Conference average was 30.

2) For the last four conference games of the season, Montana was eighth with 30 pts, EWU was first with 44.2. The Conference average was 32.

3) Montana had the largest change in Scoring Offense, with a -35.5% loss between the first four games and the last four games. The Conference average change was +12.1%.

EWU -21.2%
Cal Poly -22.8%
ISU +28.9%
MT State -5.3%
NAU +4.0%
North Dak -12.8%
NorCo +54.3%
PSU +34.7%
Sac State +55.1%
SUU +55.4%
UCS +3.9%
Weber -29.1%

Using your favorite metric, Scoring Offense, it is clear that Montana had the biggest collapse over the course of the season than any other conference team, and the difference wasn't even close. It was a complete rout; the team capability on offense collapsed, and the irony of that is that the high 62 pt ISU score is included, padding the "collapse" considerably.

That's what your statistic, properly used, shows.

So now we are measuring change in scoring offense over the season? What exactly are you talking about? I was talking about SCORING OFFENSE. Not not change, not yards, not losses, not wins, not anything other than SCORING OFFENSE.

Comparing changes in scoring offense throughout the season is a fundamentaly flawed comparison given that we backend our hard games and other teams front end.

Also... I only checked Nor Colorodo as it was one of the highest increases

First 4 conference games their offense scored 100 points.

Last 4 conference games their offense scored 145 points.

That's a very simple increase of 45% in scoring offense. You indicated 54.3%. So... wherever you are getting your numbers they are wrong

 

[CV Griz Fan]

Sorry I assumed Eriul was male as I am not in tune with the major players on this forum. Regardless it was tacky on my part and I sincerely apologize.

Not tacky at all. Just an honest mistake....

 

[1Griz_Fan]

Time to put down the pompoms cause nobody cares to hear how awesome the Griz offense was when it clearly was not. The offense could not establish any rhythm or consistency and the only thing they were good at is the up tempo part that helped wear our defense out.

If dink and dunk screens and short passes make a high powered offense then we were tops in the nation. This offense was not even exciting to watch which says a lot along with the fact that not many posters agree this is a good offense. The only people that believe the Griz had a top FCS offense are Stitt and his cheerleader.

A poll of Big Sky defensive coordinators would conclude the Griz offense is not that spectacular. Just ask Gregorak. I bet most were excited to show how to shut it down, except of course the JV teams that made some fans think we have the greatest offensive show in football. Let's hope Stitt and his crew put as much effort in making this offense better as some posters put in defending how tops it is.

 

[UMGriz75]

So now we are measuring change in scoring offense over the season? What exactly are you talking about? I was talking about SCORING OFFENSE. Not not change, not yards, not losses, not wins, not anything other than SCORING OFFENSE.

Comparing changes in scoring offense throughout the season is a fundamentaly flawed comparison given that we backend our hard games and other teams front end.

Also, I am too lazy to check all. I checked one... Northern Colorodo. They scored 100 points in first 4 conference games and 145 in the second 4. Makign your % number off by about 10%...

So... the only one I checked you provided false numbers

You are a work of art.

Northern Colorado's first four conference game average was 23.25 points on my list, should have been 25, I entered a 27 point score as 21. Tired I guess. That makes NC's season change a +45%. That does not change my point in the slightest and if that's all you could find ...

However, the Delta of change over the season is very useful because it describes team evolution. Indeed, the overall scores, as you accidentally noted, really say nothing because it depends on the opponents defenses.

We "backend" our hard games? Nobody else does this? Our last three games were Idaho State, Northern Colorado, and Montana State. And, against those teams, we suffered a 35% collapse in Scoring Offense?

 

[Eriul]

So now we are measuring change in scoring offense over the season? What exactly are you talking about? I was talking about SCORING OFFENSE. Not not change, not yards, not losses, not wins, not anything other than SCORING OFFENSE.

Comparing changes in scoring offense throughout the season is a fundamentaly flawed comparison given that we backend our hard games and other teams front end.

Also, I am too lazy to check all. I checked one... Northern Colorodo. They scored 100 points in first 4 conference games and 145 in the second 4. Makign your % number off by about 10%...

So... the only one I checked you provided false numbers

You are a work of art.

Northern Colorado's first four conference game average was 23.25 points on my list, should have been 25, I entered a 27 point score as 21. Tired I guess. That makes NC's season change a +45%. That does not change my point in the slightest and if that's all you could find ...

However, the Delta of change over the season is very useful because it describes team evolution. Indeed, the overall scores, as you accidentally noted, really say nothing because it depends on the opponents defenses.

We "backend" our hard games? Nobody else does this? Our last three games were Idaho State, Northern Colorado, and Montana State. And, against those teams, we suffered a 35% collapse in Scoring Offense?

That's the only one I checked... Odds are you messed up others as well... I'm not going through the bullshit of checking every single one.

The scoring defenses of the first 4 and the last 4 are virtually even with MSU being the best scoring defense we played in conference(the best being ND).

Also our last 4 games... the ones you indicate show our decline in productivity...which there is no denying we still averaged 30 PPG.

In that 4 game stretch that is better than

Cal Poly
North Dakota
MSU
Weber
UC Davis
Idaho State

So even at the most NITPICKED time where our team was declining and our offense struggled. We still had the 7th BSC scoring offense.

 

[1Griz_Fan]

So now we are measuring change in scoring offense over the season? What exactly are you talking about? I was talking about SCORING OFFENSE. Not not change, not yards, not losses, not wins, not anything other than SCORING OFFENSE.

Comparing changes in scoring offense throughout the season is a fundamentaly flawed comparison given that we backend our hard games and other teams front end.

Also, I am too lazy to check all. I checked one... Northern Colorodo. They scored 100 points in first 4 conference games and 145 in the second 4. Makign your % number off by about 10%...

So... the only one I checked you provided false numbers

You are a work of art.

Northern Colorado's first four conference game average was 23.25 points on my list, should have been 25, I entered a 27 point score as 21. Tired I guess. That makes NC's season change a +45%. That does not change my point in the slightest and if that's all you could find ...

However, the Delta of change over the season is very useful because it describes team evolution. Indeed, the overall scores, as you accidentally noted, really say nothing because it depends on the opponents defenses.

We "backend" our hard games? Nobody else does this? Our last three games were Idaho State, Northern Colorado, and Montana State. And, against those teams, we suffered a 35% collapse in Scoring Offense?

That's the only one I checked... Odds are you messed up others as well... I'm not going through the bullshit of checking every single one.

The scoring defenses of the first 4 and the last 4 are virtually even with MSU being the best scoring defense we played in conference(the best being ND).

Also our last 4 games... the ones you indicate show our decline in productivity...which there is no denying we still averaged 30 PPG.

In that 4 game stretch that is better than

Cal Poly
North Dakota
MSU
Weber
UC Davis
Idaho State

So even at the most NITPICKED time where our team was declining and our offense struggled. We still had the 7th BSC scoring offense.[/quote]

Oh sweet, 7th best out of 11 is outstanding. Good thing there are more than 8 BSC teams now or we would be second to last. All these participation trophies will look nice next to the two national championship trophies. Am I the only one that dislikes Stitt's offense more every time I come to eGriz when some posters constantly try to sell us on how great it is that we can field eleven offensive players all on the field at once... :clap: :clap: :clap:

 

[Eriul]

So now we are measuring change in scoring offense over the season? What exactly are you talking about? I was talking about SCORING OFFENSE. Not not change, not yards, not losses, not wins, not anything other than SCORING OFFENSE.

Comparing changes in scoring offense throughout the season is a fundamentaly flawed comparison given that we backend our hard games and other teams front end.

Also, I am too lazy to check all. I checked one... Northern Colorodo. They scored 100 points in first 4 conference games and 145 in the second 4. Makign your % number off by about 10%...

So... the only one I checked you provided false numbers

You are a work of art.

Northern Colorado's first four conference game average was 23.25 points on my list, should have been 25, I entered a 27 point score as 21. Tired I guess. That makes NC's season change a +45%. That does not change my point in the slightest and if that's all you could find ...

However, the Delta of change over the season is very useful because it describes team evolution. Indeed, the overall scores, as you accidentally noted, really say nothing because it depends on the opponents defenses.

We "backend" our hard games? Nobody else does this? Our last three games were Idaho State, Northern Colorado, and Montana State. And, against those teams, we suffered a 35% collapse in Scoring Offense?

That's the only one I checked... Odds are you messed up others as well... I'm not going through the bullshit of checking every single one.

The scoring defenses of the first 4 and the last 4 are virtually even with MSU being the best scoring defense we played in conference(the best being ND).

Also our last 4 games... the ones you indicate show our decline in productivity...which there is no denying we still averaged 30 PPG.

In that 4 game stretch that is better than

Cal Poly
North Dakota
MSU
Weber
UC Davis
Idaho State

So even at the most NITPICKED time where our team was declining and our offense struggled. We still had the 7th BSC scoring offense.[/quote]

Oh sweet, 7th best out of 11 is outstanding. Good thing there are more than 8 BSC teams now or we would be second to last. All these participation trophies will look nice next to the two national championship trophies. Am I the only one that dislikes Stitt's offense more every time I come to eGriz when some posters constantly try to sell us on how great it is that we can field eleven offensive players all on the field at once... :clap: :clap: :clap:

Yah there's totally 11 teams in the BSC. And people wonder why egriz is laughed at. I even posted the 6 teams Montana would be ahead of XD

 

[1Griz_Fan]

You are a work of art.

Northern Colorado's first four conference game average was 23.25 points on my list, should have been 25, I entered a 27 point score as 21. Tired I guess. That makes NC's season change a +45%. That does not change my point in the slightest and if that's all you could find ...

However, the Delta of change over the season is very useful because it describes team evolution. Indeed, the overall scores, as you accidentally noted, really say nothing because it depends on the opponents defenses.

We "backend" our hard games? Nobody else does this? Our last three games were Idaho State, Northern Colorado, and Montana State. And, against those teams, we suffered a 35% collapse in Scoring Offense?

That's the only one I checked... Odds are you messed up others as well... I'm not going through the bullshit of checking every single one.

The scoring defenses of the first 4 and the last 4 are virtually even with MSU being the best scoring defense we played in conference(the best being ND).

Also our last 4 games... the ones you indicate show our decline in productivity...which there is no denying we still averaged 30 PPG.

In that 4 game stretch that is better than

Cal Poly
North Dakota
MSU
Weber
UC Davis
Idaho State

So even at the most NITPICKED time where our team was declining and our offense struggled. We still had the 7th BSC scoring offense.[/quote]

Oh sweet, 7th best out of 11 is outstanding. Good thing there are more than 8 BSC teams now or we would be second to last. All these participation trophies will look nice next to the two national championship trophies. Am I the only one that dislikes Stitt's offense more every time I come to eGriz when some posters constantly try to sell us on how great it is that we can field eleven offensive players all on the field at once... :clap: :clap: :clap:

Yah there's totally 11 teams in the BSC. And people wonder why egriz is laughed at. I even posted the 6 teams Montana would be ahead of XD

Wow, you act so mature to point out other posters little errors. My bad there is 13 teams in the big sky conference. Sort of lost track when they expanded and made this conference the way it is where no clear champions can be crowned since all teams don't play each other. eGriz is laughed at more because of the juvenile little posters that have to talk down to others that don't share their delusional views on football.

 

[Eriul]

That's the only one I checked... Odds are you messed up others as well... I'm not going through the bullshit of checking every single one.

The scoring defenses of the first 4 and the last 4 are virtually even with MSU being the best scoring defense we played in conference(the best being ND).

Also our last 4 games... the ones you indicate show our decline in productivity...which there is no denying we still averaged 30 PPG.

In that 4 game stretch that is better than

Cal Poly
North Dakota
MSU
Weber
UC Davis
Idaho State

So even at the most NITPICKED time where our team was declining and our offense struggled. We still had the 7th BSC scoring offense.[/quote]

Oh sweet, 7th best out of 11 is outstanding. Good thing there are more than 8 BSC teams now or we would be second to last. All these participation trophies will look nice next to the two national championship trophies. Am I the only one that dislikes Stitt's offense more every time I come to eGriz when some posters constantly try to sell us on how great it is that we can field eleven offensive players all on the field at once... :clap: :clap: :clap:

Yah there's totally 11 teams in the BSC. And people wonder why egriz is laughed at. I even posted the 6 teams Montana would be ahead of XD

Wow, you act so mature to point out other posters little errors. My bad there is 13 teams in the big sky conference. Sort of lost track when they expanded and made this conference the way it is where no clear champions can be crowned since all teams don't play each other. eGriz is laughed at more because of the juvenile little posters that have to talk down to others that don't share their delusional views on football.

Sorry and you didn't talk down to me when you were so positive that the BSC has 11 teams?

Hypocritical much :roll:

 

[Ursa Major]

Mods?

 

[UMGriz75]

In that 4 game stretch that is better than

Cal Poly
North Dakota
MSU
Weber
UC Davis
Idaho State

So even at the most NITPICKED time where our team was declining and our offense struggled. We still had the 7th BSC scoring offense.

You are a miracle of deflection. The idea of "playing football" is to get better during a season. But for the outlier of ISU during the last four games -- a clear outlier -- UM was obviously suffering a "Scoring Offense" collapse. Even including ISU, as I did, clearly shows it.

What you tried to do was using season-long metrics, which included significant outliers, to support some claim which you didn't understand because you thought it had something to do with yardage, not points scored. Then, when the statistical data was deconstructed to actually show something -- a "trend," which is most often what you want to use data to show, ie "where are we headed" -- the trend was just awful, the worst by far in the Big Sky Conference.

But, actually "using" the statistics to do something besides blow hot air produced exactly the opposite of what you were trying to prove. Therefore, the season-long trend, which showed where UM was headed as it went into the Griz-Cat game, to you was NITPICKING! even though it had predictive power for that game.

Your approach predicted nothing; indeed, it would have seduced :evil: innocent, honorable, and good people to believe we would not only win, wholly unaware of your Machiavellian schemes, that we would win by the biggest margin in collegiate football history. Did you watch the game?

That's the difference between the way you misuse statistics -- as propaganda tools -- and what statistics are supposed to be used for -- analysis and predictive power.

 

[84GRIZ]

Jeez you guys, quit the arguing. It is really simple and right in front of you

1st downs - 1st
3rd downs - 1st
4th downs - 2nd

We just really, really sucked on 2nd down :shock: :shock: