IdaGriz01
Well-known member
With half (8 out of 16) the teams ranked #10 and below losing, we can expect some major shifts in the next poll. So much so that I almost decided to skip my guesses this week. But I figured WTH, and decided to give it a go. Of course, there should be no changes in #1 through #9.
Losing to a higher-ranked team will normally cost the loser anywhere from four to six spots. So, being a bit of an optimist, I dropped the Griz only to #14. Coincidentally, that put UM right in the middle of a block of 6-2 teams ... which looks pretty good. Realistically, those three teams might be somewhat “interchangeable,” so you could almost put them in any order within the block.
Of course, these guesses include two other 6-2 teams much lower in the list. (Ignore the two 6-2 teams in the top-10.
) Delaware was unranked last week, although it was the highest among the “Others receiving votes.” So, in effect, I moved them from “#26” to #18 .. . a considerable jump, given that their win was over hapless Rhode Island (3-6). I hammered Lehigh down by seven slots because they got obliterated, 48-10, by Bucknell, a 3-4 team.
It pains me to keep a 4-3 team (New Hampshire) at #19. However, pollsters have shown them a lot of love so far and I expect that to continue.
Villanova lost to a ranked opponent, and might not drop out (the “formula” would suggest perhaps a #24 or #25). Still, IMO you cannot ignore that 4-4 record. Same goes for Northern Iowa, which is now 4-4 and has lost four games in a row. Finally, Ga Southern lost to an unranked opponent, which -- sitting at #24 before -- will surely cost them a place in the top-25.
That opened up three spots, one of which I filled with Delaware (as noted). Since I believe the pollsters will drop 'Nova out of the top-25, I figure they would want to replace them with another CAA, hence William & Mary moves in. Charleston Southern was second among “Others receiving votes” last week, so I decided they would finally make it in.
There are so many conflicting factors because of all the losses, I do not expect to do particularly well with my guesses this week ... but we’ll see.
Guess, Team (Record) [Current Rank]
1. NDSU (8-0) [1]
2. Eastern Illinois (7-1) [2]
3. EWU (6-2) [3]
4. McNeese State (7-1) [4]
5. Montana State (6-2) [5]
6. Coastal Carolina (8-0) [6]
7. Sam Houston State (6-2) [7]
8. Towson (8-1) [8]
9. Fordham (8-0) [9]
10. Maine (7-1) [11]
11. Youngstown State (7-1) [13]
12. Bethune-Cookman (7-1) [14]
13. Northern Arizona (6-2) [16]
14. Montana (6-2) lost to #3 [10]
15. Samford (6-2) [22]
16. Central Arkansas (5-3) [23]
17. Wofford (5-3) lost to #22 [12]
18. Delaware (6-2) [NR]
19. New Hampshire (4-3) [20]
20. South Dakota State (5-4) [25]
21. Charleston Southern (8-1) [NR]
22. Lehigh (6-2) lost to unranked [15]
23. William & Mary (5-3) [NR]
24. Tennessee State (7-2) lost to #2 [21]
25. James Madison (5-3) lost to unranked [19]
NR Villanova (4-4) lost to #11 [18]
NR Northern Iowa (4-4) lost to #25 [17]
NR Georgia Southern (4-3) lost to unranked [24]
Losing to a higher-ranked team will normally cost the loser anywhere from four to six spots. So, being a bit of an optimist, I dropped the Griz only to #14. Coincidentally, that put UM right in the middle of a block of 6-2 teams ... which looks pretty good. Realistically, those three teams might be somewhat “interchangeable,” so you could almost put them in any order within the block.
Of course, these guesses include two other 6-2 teams much lower in the list. (Ignore the two 6-2 teams in the top-10.
) Delaware was unranked last week, although it was the highest among the “Others receiving votes.” So, in effect, I moved them from “#26” to #18 .. . a considerable jump, given that their win was over hapless Rhode Island (3-6). I hammered Lehigh down by seven slots because they got obliterated, 48-10, by Bucknell, a 3-4 team.It pains me to keep a 4-3 team (New Hampshire) at #19. However, pollsters have shown them a lot of love so far and I expect that to continue.
Villanova lost to a ranked opponent, and might not drop out (the “formula” would suggest perhaps a #24 or #25). Still, IMO you cannot ignore that 4-4 record. Same goes for Northern Iowa, which is now 4-4 and has lost four games in a row. Finally, Ga Southern lost to an unranked opponent, which -- sitting at #24 before -- will surely cost them a place in the top-25.
That opened up three spots, one of which I filled with Delaware (as noted). Since I believe the pollsters will drop 'Nova out of the top-25, I figure they would want to replace them with another CAA, hence William & Mary moves in. Charleston Southern was second among “Others receiving votes” last week, so I decided they would finally make it in.
There are so many conflicting factors because of all the losses, I do not expect to do particularly well with my guesses this week ... but we’ll see.
Guess, Team (Record) [Current Rank]
1. NDSU (8-0) [1]
2. Eastern Illinois (7-1) [2]
3. EWU (6-2) [3]
4. McNeese State (7-1) [4]
5. Montana State (6-2) [5]
6. Coastal Carolina (8-0) [6]
7. Sam Houston State (6-2) [7]
8. Towson (8-1) [8]
9. Fordham (8-0) [9]
10. Maine (7-1) [11]
11. Youngstown State (7-1) [13]
12. Bethune-Cookman (7-1) [14]
13. Northern Arizona (6-2) [16]
14. Montana (6-2) lost to #3 [10]
15. Samford (6-2) [22]
16. Central Arkansas (5-3) [23]
17. Wofford (5-3) lost to #22 [12]
18. Delaware (6-2) [NR]
19. New Hampshire (4-3) [20]
20. South Dakota State (5-4) [25]
21. Charleston Southern (8-1) [NR]
22. Lehigh (6-2) lost to unranked [15]
23. William & Mary (5-3) [NR]
24. Tennessee State (7-2) lost to #2 [21]
25. James Madison (5-3) lost to unranked [19]
NR Villanova (4-4) lost to #11 [18]
NR Northern Iowa (4-4) lost to #25 [17]
NR Georgia Southern (4-3) lost to unranked [24]
I did hope there would be more discussion of some of my picks, who deserves what, and so on.
