Expect Gus

[Eriul]

Well ....
Gus put up 78 points in three games, a 1-2 loss record.
Makena put up 91 points in three games, a 2-1 win record.

The cumulative margin (scores)
Gus -8 points
Makena +13 points

Largest margin of victory
Gus 3 points
Makena 26 points

Makena's bad game came at PSU which has won six of its last eight games. Gus's bad game (a home game) came with Cal Poly which has lost six of its last 8 games.

This has to be the most retarded cherry picked stats I've ever seen on this board. Like how can you possibly post this and think it's logically sound?

Errors in your logic:
You're assuming that the entire offense is equal for both quarterbacks at completely different points of the season. Pretty sure there was a large change in offensive philosophy, execution, and ability from Gus to Makena.

You're assuming that point diff reflect on the QB. Neither QB plays defense so it really is horrible logic to compare point differences.

Gus didn't even complete his 3rd game.

Calculating total points doesn't even reflect solely on the QB either. In Gus's 2 1/2 games he was responsible for 30 total points and 4 turnovers(not good stats.) Makena was responsible in his 3 games for 42 points and 5 turnovers(not great either. Actually both about the same points/turnover ratio and both scoring about the same amount per time played.)

In your "bad games" analysis you say Gus's bad game was to Cal poly who does have a bad record and not a great defense. Portland State has a good record, but their defense isn't spectacular either(43rd in the nation.)
Gus had a QBR of 104.6 in his game against Cal Poly and Makena had a QBR of 57.8 in his game against Portland State. Gus produced significantly more offense than Makena in those games as well too. It's really hard to compare the two as the defenses are different, schemes are different at that time, and the location was different. I mean comparing these games is the definition of comparing apples to oranges.

You can't really compare records when Simis SHOULD be 1-2 because he GAVE the game to ISU only to have ISU give it right back and really Brady's win against NDSU is much better than Simis one win(I'm not counting ISU as a win for simis)

Gus's also played against 3 defenses who averaged to be about 41st in the nation while Makena's 3 games are against the 66th in the nation.

I could keep going on and on and on about your failed logic but the idea is you cherry picked your stats ever so carefully to support your view and I can't understand how you do not see your own ignorance.

 

[MiningCityGrizFan]

There's a reason Gus was the starter & Simis third string to start the season, Gus is better. The only thing Simis has on Gus is that he's a better runner. Not saying Gus is great, but Simis is a mistake waiting to happen.

It should be noted that Gus doesn't have to be a great runner. He just has to do it enough to keep the defense honest so they can't key on the running back.

The passing game was much better under Gus. He was able to stretch the field vertically, and not just with Jamaal and Ellis. He was able to get the slot receivers up the seam -- think 4th and 10 on the final drive against NDSU.

I miss that...

 

[AZGrizFan]

There's a reason Gus was the starter & Simis third string to start the season, Gus is better. The only thing Simis has on Gus is that he's a better runner. Not saying Gus is great, but Simis is a mistake waiting to happen.

It should be noted that Gus doesn't have to be a great runner. He just has to do it enough to keep the defense honest so they can't key on the running back.

The passing game was much better under Gus. He was able to stretch the field vertically, and not just with Jamaal and Ellis. He was able to get the slot receivers up the seam -- think 4th and 10 on the final drive against NDSU.

I miss that...

He did that for exactly 4 quarters. Go back and look at the last 5 quarters he played....not a hell of a lot of "stretching the field" happening.

 

[tnt]

While the statistics are fun, I suspect Stitt after hanging around real math folk barely considers them The sample you are playing with only gives you at at best no matter how you define the t-distribution etc etc. a 60% chance of being predictive. The probability function can be easily figured using:

f(t) = \frac{\Gamma(\frac{\nu+1}{2})} {\sqrt{\nu\pi}\,\Gamma(\frac{\nu}{2})} \left(1+\frac{t^2}{\nu} \right)^{\!-\frac{\nu+1}{2}},\!


(Student's T function which incidentally was developed at the Guiness brewery to deal with small samples)

 

[grizindabox]

So AZ...which QB do you think gives the Griz the best chance at winning games...

 

[UMGriz75]

This has to be the most retarded cherry picked stats I've ever seen on this board. Like how can you possibly post this and think it's logically sound?

Errors in your logic:
You're assuming that the entire offense is equal for both quarterbacks at completely different points of the season. Pretty sure there was a large change in offensive philosophy, execution, and ability from Gus to Makena.

You're assuming that point diff reflect on the QB. Neither QB plays defense so it really is horrible logic to compare point differences.

I do think that everyone -- the players, the coaches, the fans -- like it when our QB scores more than their QB, but more importantly, that the team scores do also reflect "coaching strategy." I think it is funny that you think its wrong to "assume" that the "point diff. reflects on the QB" and that it is "horrible logic" to, you know, care who wins or loses the games and by how much.

The fact is, Brady put up impressive passing numbers, and achieved a lower score because the passes were so much shorter, and also got a fumble and an interception. He also got repeated overthrows and "miscommunications." And then, against arguably lesser teams, his numbers began to fall, dismally, and the only number that was consistent was his 33% third down conversions. That's not "horrible logic" its a measure of the strategy of the short throws and lots of them in the "hurry up." And the metric is not a good one.

You are pretty lathered up considering I didn't make any of the interpretations you read into it. The numbers are the numbers. I gather you would prefer numbers that show something you agree with. Do you think that a QB with a consistent 33% conversion rate is someone you want to rely on to win a game?

If you are trying to argue that it is impossible to compare quarterbacks by using their game results, it is an interesting point I am sure to football analysts and coaches everywhere, since the alternative, goat entrails, was pretty much discredited about the time of Julius Caesar.

Pretty sure there was a large change in offensive philosophy, execution, and ability from Gus to Makena.

I said that. And pointed out that the results were quite good. What part don't you get?

 

[jodcon]

Grow up.

But I nailed it......

OK, you can't grow up. I enjoy the statistical side of this. I don't enjoy the assholes. If you want to talk football, great. If you want to leave the football field and go over to the playground, go play.

But it is not all about the statistics....sometimes you have to actually sit down and analyze what is actually happening on the field each play, in each situation....you don't want to do that....

Like I said...I am pretty sure you are a number cruncher that really doesn't know shit about football....the stats are all pretty...but you have no clue what the PSU and ISU defenses did as compared to what the UND defense did...seems they figured Simis out...easy to defend...

I'm amazed it wasn't worse, if I was a safety or LB in coverage I would completely sell out to where Simis turns his head as soon as the snap hit his hands...he is never going to throw anywhere else...anybody who actually knows a fucking thing about football and watched the games knows that.

And as far as UND, I'm pretty sure any of our QB's would have shredded them with our receivers and #27 on the job, my grandma could have got open against that crew.

 

[Yukon]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/ajmazzolini/status/664191752278970368[/tweet]

 

[MiningCityGrizFan]

There's a reason Gus was the starter & Simis third string to start the season, Gus is better. The only thing Simis has on Gus is that he's a better runner. Not saying Gus is great, but Simis is a mistake waiting to happen.

It should be noted that Gus doesn't have to be a great runner. He just has to do it enough to keep the defense honest so they can't key on the running back.

The passing game was much better under Gus. He was able to stretch the field vertically, and not just with Jamaal and Ellis. He was able to get the slot receivers up the seam -- think 4th and 10 on the final drive against NDSU.

I miss that...

He did that for exactly 4 quarters. Go back and look at the last 5 quarters he played....not a hell of a lot of "stretching the field" happening.

So it appears as if you're argument is that because Gus bad game against Cal Poly, and then got off to a slow start after a bye week before getting hurt in the 1st quarter of the Liberty game, that the NDSU game was a fluke and he should hold a clip board for the rest of his Griz career?

Gus is the QB who had the most work in the spring, led the workouts during summer, and had the most 1st team reps in fall camp. His grasp of the offense is far beyond that of Chalich and Simis at this point. That grasp gives the Griz the ability to make the most in-game adjustments.

That and the fact that he's a better passer than Simis should make us all want to see him on the field Saturday. Even if he does get off to a slow start.

 

[Grisly Fan]

It seems pretty clear even to me (a Simis fan) that he is not working through any kind of progression. Perhaps the PSU debacle has him traumatized. The pouring rain added a whole other dimension to facing a pretty good defense. Perhaps Stitt helped traumatize Simis by heaping too much blame on him for the debacle based on Stitt's own embarrassment -- there is a lot of pressure on him to win. Maybe Stitt's system simply cannot succeed when faced with a green QB and the rest of the team that doesn't yet know how to execute in his kind of dynamic read offense. You can blame Simis for not reading through the progression but maybe the receivers aren't actually where they are supposed to be. Perhaps putting a green QB in 3rd and long due to 2 poor gains on zone read runs compounds any/all of the above. You can call Stitt stubborn or whatever but it is clear that he has a vision which he will drive to despite significant evidence that it is not working. And it seems clear that he is ultimately playing for the future at the cost of today. That in my opinion is what makes the players look worse than they really are but that is what Stitt was hired to do, build for the future. I just hope he accepts that his focus is a big part of the problem right now. Not pleasant to play in maybe and certainly not pleasant to watch at times but he has two years to make it work. And that is what we have to accept whether we want to or not.

 

[tnt]

And yet two weeks to go, we are still in the hunt and looking better than 2010..................

 

[UMGriz75]

Like I said...I am pretty sure you are a number cruncher that really doesn't know shit about football....the stats are all pretty...but you have no clue what the PSU and ISU defenses did as compared to what the UND defense did...seems they figured Simis out...easy to defend...

I am pretty sure you don't like stats and don't know shit about football.

See how that works on your playground?

Grow up. It's good advice. Take it.

 

[grizindabox]

Like I said...I am pretty sure you are a number cruncher that really doesn't know shit about football....the stats are all pretty...but you have no clue what the PSU and ISU defenses did as compared to what the UND defense did...seems they figured Simis out...easy to defend...

I am pretty sure you don't like stats and don't know shit about football.

See how that works on your playground?

Grow up. It's good advice. Take it.

Exactly what I thought...no disputing what I said, just trying to deflect.....PR has a quote for you....

 

[UMGriz75]

[Exactly what I thought...no disputing what I said, just trying to deflect.....PR has a quote for you....

Jayzuz, now you're acting like PeeWee Herman, "I know you are but what am I?"

If you can't read the stats and understand them, and try and substitute "I JUST KNOW" without any actual proof at all, including no statistical backup, I'd say you like to argue more than think. And repeating it over and over doesn't improve your IQ, you know.

 

[grizindabox]

[Exactly what I thought...no disputing what I said, just trying to deflect.....PR has a quote for you....

Jayzuz, now you're acting like PeeWee Herman, "I know you are but what am I?"

If you can't read the stats and understand them, and try and substitute "I JUST KNOW" without any actual proof at all, including no statistical backup, I'd say you like to argue more than think. And repeating it over and over doesn't improve your IQ, you know.

Go back to your fantasy league stat nerd.....in your spare time, sit down and watch each play over the last 3 games and really study what Simis does...what the opposing defense does...how other teams adjust to him...how he adjusts to the defense...you will start to notice the things that don't show up on the stat sheet...like Simis running for 8 yards.....seemingly good for stats...but realizing if he go through his progressions...you know, look at someone other than his primary receiver...he could have hit a wide open secondary receiver for 15 plus...or maybe instead of running out of the pocket inside the 10 and pick up 2 yards on 3rd down, he could have found his secondary receiver for a touchdown....boy...those plays he didn't make sure could have made his stats look even better.....starting to get the picture....I get that Brady was having his issues...but he gives the Griz a better chance to win games than does Simis....put those stats in your pipe and smoke it...

 

[kemajic]

I said that. And pointed out that the results were quite good. What part don't you get?

I'll butt in with what I don't get. I don't get why you are so high on a 3rd string QB who has been in two OTs and fumbled away the ball in both. It is nearly an automatic loss to do that; only the incompetence of a 2-7 opponent prevented it from being two losses. The ball has to be protected at all costs. He frequently misreads the read-option in the red zone and has happy feet on passing downs. He will improve all of this - some day.

I also don't get your avoidance of describing the butt-kicking we got at PSU with a QB who threw three ints in the first quarter. In the two games Gus completed, we won by 3 against the #1 team in the country and lost by 1 to a preseason ranked team. Had he been able to finish the third (against a ranked team) the outcome could have been different. No butt-kicking on his resume.

 

[CV Griz Fan]

It is when we were in a 17-0 hole when he left.

I didn't realize Gus was playing defense in that game too.

Great point. The first quarter and a half of that game the Griz D played horribly.....

They were on the field almost the entire time.

The 17-0 lead was built up in the first 18-20 minutes of the game. Liberty drove the length of the field on the first possession pretty easily from what I remember. On the next drive, they beat the Griz saferty over the top for a big play. The first half defensive funk had nothing to do with being on the field too long.....

 

[mikegriz]

Gus has shown that he has a better handle on the playbook and routes. But the reason our run game has shown much improvement is the fact that opposing defenses have to take into account that Simis can run. So they cannot just pin their ears back on the running backs, with no worry that the quarterback is not going to run it.

This was clear in the first half Saturday. Not sure why they went away from Simis as running threat in 2nd half (?) Gus is not a running threat.

 

[grizcountry420]

[Exactly what I thought...no disputing what I said, just trying to deflect.....PR has a quote for you....

Jayzuz, now you're acting like PeeWee Herman, "I know you are but what am I?"

If you can't read the stats and understand them, and try and substitute "I JUST KNOW" without any actual proof at all, including no statistical backup, I'd say you like to argue more than think. And repeating it over and over doesn't improve your IQ, you know.

Go back to your fantasy league stat nerd.....in your spare time, sit down and watch each play over the last 3 games and really study what Simis does...what the opposing defense does...how other teams adjust to him...how he adjusts to the defense...you will start to notice the things that don't show up on the stat sheet...like Simis running for 8 yards.....seemingly good for stats...but realizing if he go through his progressions...you know, look at someone other than his primary receiver...he could have hit a wide open secondary receiver for 15 plus...or maybe instead of running out of the pocket inside the 10 and pick up 2 yards on 3rd down, he could have found his secondary receiver for a touchdown....boy...those plays he didn't make sure could have made his stats look even better.....starting to get the picture....I get that Brady was having his issues...but he gives the Griz a better chance to win games than does Simis....put those stats in your pipe and smoke it...

Hey, you two!! Keep it up! Great reading material....

 

[BWahlberg]

They were on the field almost the entire time.

The 17-0 lead was built up in the first 18-20 minutes of the game. Liberty drove the length of the field on the first possession pretty easily from what I remember. On the next drive, they beat the Griz saferty over the top for a big play. The first half defensive funk had nothing to do with being on the field too long.....

1st drive was about 5:30 and the next was just 10 seconds. Liberty had the ball only about 1:20 more than Montana in the first quarter.