Expect Gus

[UMGriz75]

Simis had success game 1 because of the unknown...everyone knows what he is now...easy to defend...

There was nothing "unknown" about the long passes to Ellis and Jamal, et.al. and UND's defenders were good, very good, they were right on top of our receivers, but two things existed: Makena could put the ball spot on, and the WRs and others were given the chance to do what they do very, very well.

And, in that game, Makena hit more receivers than any QB this season:
Jamal Jones (4)
Ellis Henderson (3)
Ben Roberts (3)
Josh Horner
Jeremy Calhoun
Reese Carlson
Chase Naccarato
Caleb Lyons
Treshawn Favors
John Nguyen

328 yards worth. And notably, Makena threw just 17 successful passes.

Compare that to the "hurry up" offense mastered by Brady -- 40 such passes from Brady at the Cal Poly game -- the complexity conundrum, the short passes, the lack of scoreboard results, the three interceptions and the loss.

Those weren't just a couple of lucky throws. Not that many. And the average throw to Jamaal was 35 yds (74), and to Ellis was 38 yds (63).

And after his first game, his 3rd down completion rate is still substantially higher than Brady's.

Put that on film.

 

[grizindabox]

Simis had success game 1 because of the unknown...everyone knows what he is now...easy to defend...

There was nothing "unknown" about the long passes to Ellis and Jamal, et.al. and UND's defenders were good, very good, they were right on top of our receivers, but two things existed: Makena could put the ball spot on, and the WRs and others were given the chance to do what they do very, very well.

And, in that game, Makena hit more receivers than any QB this season:
Jamal Jones (4)
Ellis Henderson (3)
Ben Roberts (3)
Josh Horner
Jeremy Calhoun
Reese Carlson
Chase Naccarato
Caleb Lyons
Treshawn Favors
John Nguyen

328 yards worth. And notably, Makena threw just 17 successful passes.

Compare that to the "hurry up" offense mastered by Brady -- 40 such passes from Brady at the Cal Poly game -- the complexity conundrum, the short passes, the lack of scoreboard results, the three interceptions and the loss.

Those weren't just a couple of lucky throws. Not that many. And the average throw to Jamaal was 35 yds (74), and to Ellis was 38 yds (63).

And after his first game, his 3rd down completion rate is still substantially higher than Brady's.

Put that on film.

Raider addressed his success against UND...

I am beginning to believe that 75 thinks stats tell everything because he doesn't understand enough to actually see what is happening on the field from play to play,game to game....

 

[Htowngriz]

UND is 118th in FCS in passing defense.

 

[grizindabox]

UND is 118th in FCS in passing defense.

75....you seemed to disregard this stat in your analysis....

 

[UMGriz75]

[Brady has never demonstrated that he "can."

Brady beat NDSU by engineering a last minute drive and throwing for 434 yards against one of the best defenses in FCS. Simis has not "demonstrated" anything similar.

There is one thing that Brady has not done that Simis has - throw 3 ints in one quarter.

No, but he did throw three ints in one game. A home game. One of those that Stitt proclaimed "We Do Not Lose At Home," and then we did, to a team that has lost six of its last eight games. Brady QB. At least Makena has the dignity at PSU of losing to a team that has won six of its last eight games.

Amazingly, in his best game, Brady threw for 434 yards and got 38 points, two fumbles and one interception, winning by three last minute points.

In his best game, Makena threw for 323 yards and 42 points, 0 fumbles and 0 interceptions, winning by 26 not-so-last-mnute points.

Of course, that's part of my point. The more experience these QBs have with "The Playbook" the worse they do after their first games.

 

[grzz]

What are the pass defense ranks of the the defenses each of them have faced in their games?

Simis isn't being over managed. If what worked against UND still worked, they would be doing it but the teams have adjusted. PSU left one safety in deep coverage and brought the other closer to the line of scrimmage, and Simis had no idea what to do. ISU was an incredibly vanilla playbook and he only managed 14 points, and they were early. Once the defense adjusted to what he was doing, that was it.

The other thing many aren't factoring in, is that Brady's three games were also the first three games for every player in this offense, period. The miscommunication was more on the receivers than the the QB, or equally shared.

 

[UMGriz75]

UND is 118th in FCS in passing defense.

75....you seemed to disregard this stat in your analysis....

You enjoy picking out one statistic, and ignoring all the rest.

On that day, then, I don't know how they performed compared to their current ranking, now. These are averages, you know. I saw how closely UND defended our receivers. Our guys were not "open." Makena had to hit them. And he did.

I don't know on the day NDSU played here how they compared to their averages either, and for that matter, a lot of water is under the bridge for all of these teams in terms of their current "rankings" compared to what they were a month or two ago.

Montana State still leads the conference in scoring offense too. Does that reflect their last two games? I love stats, but there are relevant stats and not-so-relevant stats. "Any given Sunday ....".

 

[grizindabox]

UND is 118th in FCS in passing defense.

75....you seemed to disregard this stat in your analysis....

You enjoy picking out one statistic, and ignoring all the rest.

On that day, then, I don't know how they performed compared to their current ranking, now. These are averages, you know. I saw how closely UND defended our receivers. Our guys were not "open." Makena had to hit them. And he did.

I don't know on the day NDSU played here how they compared to their averages either, and for that matter, a lot of water is under the bridge for all of these teams in terms of their current "rankings" compared to what they were a month or two ago.

Montana State still leads the conference in scoring offense too. Does that reflect their last two games? I love stats, but there are relevant stats and not-so-relevant stats. "Any given Sunday ....".

I didn't pick it out...someone else did...all I did was mention that you did not include it in your statistical analysis..

Also, your last statement sums it up perfectly...and many of the stats you are using to make Simis out to be the next coming of DD are....well...not-so-relevant....you should actually sit down and watch the games...

 

[UMGriz75]

Simis isn't being over managed. If what worked against UND still worked, they would be doing it but the teams have adjusted.

"Adjusted" to what? We never did it or anything like it again. It poured rain the next game. Makena did better that day, in the rain, than Dakota Prukop did that day -- against UND -- in the rain. And at ISU, as has been noted, Stitt came in with the "don't lose the game" strategy rather than the "fight to win" strategy. ISU almost adjusted to that one, all right ....

I guess the same logic applies, then, right to Brady? That what worked against NDSU -- fast plays, lots of passing, 96 plays -- can't work anymore because teams have "adjusted?"

Are you really claiming that Stitt's strategy can only work once?

 

[grizindabox]

I will let everyone know how this season plays out in 75 eyes....

Simis continues to start and struggle...and he will struggle...and it will be the fault of Stitt,
Brady will start and struggle...and they should have kept playing Simis...so once again the fault of Stitt,
Brady will start and perform well...they did not give Simis the same type of opportunity...so once again the fault of Stitt,
Simis will start and perform well...which he won't...and 75 will use the "I told you so"...

 

[UMGriz75]

Also, your last statement sums it up perfectly...and many of the stats you are using to make Simis out to be the next coming of DD are....well...not-so-relevant....you should actually sit down and watch the games...

The hyperbole about Dickenson is pointless and jejune. I'm not saying anything like that. Maybe you should sit down and just take a breather. The stats are the stats. If you are looking for a statistic about something that is actually about something else, type away.

A generalized statistic may or may not have anything to do with a given game, and certainly reflects "schedules" and opponents for which you offer no distinction, team capabilities, not the capabilities of individual players on the same team playing for the same coach. Fortunately or unfortunately, but realistically, those are the only statistics we have that offer any kind of comparisons at all, unless you are claiming that no comparison between players on the same team is ever valid because, you know, "UND is 130th in FCS defenses this week, which is not the week we played them."

It's why MSU, the No 1 offense in the conference, can lose to UND, the 5th best defense in the conference, and Montana, the No 8 offense in the conference, could beat UND, the 5th best defense in the conference. You know -- stats!

If you just want to have a pissing match, and that's the best you can do, piss away.

 

[UMGriz75]

I will let everyone know how this season plays out in 75 eyes....
Simis continues to start and struggle...and he will struggle...and it will be the fault of Stitt,
Brady will start and struggle...and they should have kept playing Simis...so once again the fault of Stitt,
Brady will start and perform well...they did not give Simis the same type of opportunity...so once again the fault of Stitt,
Simis will start and perform well...which he won't...and 75 will use the "I told you so"...

Grow up.

 

[grizindabox]

Also, your last statement sums it up perfectly...and many of the stats you are using to make Simis out to be the next coming of DD are....well...not-so-relevant....you should actually sit down and watch the games...

The hyperbole about Dickenson is pointless and jejune. I'm not saying anything like that. Maybe you should sit down and just take a breather. The stats are the stats. If you are looking for a statistic about something that is actually about something else, type away.

A generalized statistic may or may not have anything to do with a given game, and certainly reflects "schedules" and opponents for which you offer no distinction, team capabilities, not the capabilities of individual players on the same team playing for the same coach. Fortunately or unfortunately, but realistically, those are the only statistics we have that offer any kind of comparisons at all, unless you are claiming that no comparison between players on the same team is ever valid because, you know, "UND is 130th in FCS defenses this week, which is not the week we played them."

It's why MSU, the No 1 offense in the conference, can lose to UND, the 5th best defense in the conference, and Montana, the No 8 offense in the conference, could beat UND, the 5th best defense in the conference. You know -- stats!

If you just want to have a pissing match, and that's the best you can do, piss away.

That is funny....I just looked at the current NFL Total QBR...and according to that statistical analysis Tom Brady is the 5th best NFL QB..behind that great QB Ryan Fitzpatrick....and Cam Newton is the 24th best NFL QB behind those perennial pro-bowlers Ryan Mallett and Josh McCown....stats are fun...stats are neat...stats don't necessarily tell the whole story....which of those NFL QB's would you pick to start for your team?

 

[grzz]

Simis isn't being over managed. If what worked against UND still worked, they would be doing it but the teams have adjusted.

"Adjusted" to what? We never did it or anything like it again. It poured rain the next game. Makena did better that day, in the rain, than Dakota Prukop did that day -- against UND -- in the rain. And at ISU, as has been noted, Stitt came in with the "don't lose the game" strategy rather than the "fight to win" strategy. ISU almost adjusted to that one, all right ....

I guess the same logic applies, then, right to Brady? That what worked against NDSU -- fast plays, lots of passing, 96 plays -- can't work anymore because teams have "adjusted?"

Are you really claiming that Stitt's strategy can only work once?

Adjusted to Simis strengths and weaknesses. It is literally the whole point of watching game film, which every coach in America does every week. The more a player gets on film, the more depth there needs to be to their game. I have never said that Gus is the second coming, I don't know how he will play. But if you can't see that coaches have figured out that so far, Simis can't look off his first option, I won't convince you otherwise. And that is fine.

Kramer basically said after the game that our QB play has been bad all year, or not to the level of the elites in the conference. Which I think all of us except maybe 75 can agree on. If Simis was the second coming, he would be quick to sing his praise or even over inflate how good he is, that is just Kramer's style.

PSU adjusted their safety and played one deep. Simis responded with three interceptions. Yes is what raining and shitty, so there were other factors.

I posted a clip from the website Smart Football in a different thread yesterday. You should go watch it. It is a very good explanation of how this sort of offense can work. I am by no means a football expert, and I don't pretend to be. It just doesn't take an expert to recognize the passing game is more basic because Simis can't (yet) digest the more complex. And any coach will tell you that just throwing deep routes every game does not work if you don't have other aspects of the offense.

 

[grizindabox]

I will let everyone know how this season plays out in 75 eyes....
Simis continues to start and struggle...and he will struggle...and it will be the fault of Stitt,
Brady will start and struggle...and they should have kept playing Simis...so once again the fault of Stitt,
Brady will start and perform well...they did not give Simis the same type of opportunity...so once again the fault of Stitt,
Simis will start and perform well...which he won't...and 75 will use the "I told you so"...

Grow up.

But I nailed it......

 

[UMGriz75]

I will let everyone know how this season plays out in 75 eyes....
Simis continues to start and struggle...and he will struggle...and it will be the fault of Stitt,
Brady will start and struggle...and they should have kept playing Simis...so once again the fault of Stitt,
Brady will start and perform well...they did not give Simis the same type of opportunity...so once again the fault of Stitt,
Simis will start and perform well...which he won't...and 75 will use the "I told you so"...

Grow up.

But I nailed it......

OK, you can't grow up. I enjoy the statistical side of this. I don't enjoy the assholes. If you want to talk football, great. If you want to leave the football field and go over to the playground, go play.

 

[grizindabox]

I will let everyone know how this season plays out in 75 eyes....
Simis continues to start and struggle...and he will struggle...and it will be the fault of Stitt,
Brady will start and struggle...and they should have kept playing Simis...so once again the fault of Stitt,
Brady will start and perform well...they did not give Simis the same type of opportunity...so once again the fault of Stitt,
Simis will start and perform well...which he won't...and 75 will use the "I told you so"...

Grow up.

But I nailed it......

OK, you can't grow up. I enjoy the statistical side of this. I don't enjoy the assholes. If you want to talk football, great. If you want to leave the football field and go over to the playground, go play.

But it is not all about the statistics....sometimes you have to actually sit down and analyze what is actually happening on the field each play, in each situation....you don't want to do that....

Like I said...I am pretty sure you are a number cruncher that really doesn't know shit about football....the stats are all pretty...but you have no clue what the PSU and ISU defenses did as compared to what the UND defense did...seems they figured Simis out...easy to defend...

 

[uofmman1122]

I will let everyone know how this season plays out in 75 eyes....
Simis continues to start and struggle...and he will struggle...and it will be the fault of Stitt,
Brady will start and struggle...and they should have kept playing Simis...so once again the fault of Stitt,
Brady will start and perform well...they did not give Simis the same type of opportunity...so once again the fault of Stitt,
Simis will start and perform well...which he won't...and 75 will use the "I told you so"...

Grow up.

But I nailed it......

I'd like to see your stats backing that up.

This post needs more stats.

Does number of characters in a post count as a relevant stat?

I'm confused.

 

[MiningCityGrizFan]

Simis isn't being over managed. If what worked against UND still worked, they would be doing it but the teams have adjusted.

"Adjusted" to what? We never did it or anything like it again. It poured rain the next game. Makena did better that day, in the rain, than Dakota Prukop did that day -- against UND -- in the rain. And at ISU, as has been noted, Stitt came in with the "don't lose the game" strategy rather than the "fight to win" strategy. ISU almost adjusted to that one, all right ....

I guess the same logic applies, then, right to Brady? That what worked against NDSU -- fast plays, lots of passing, 96 plays -- can't work anymore because teams have "adjusted?"

Are you really claiming that Stitt's strategy can only work once?

I don't think Stitt changes strategy for the sake of change. He was adjusting to the fact that Simis has zero confidence throwing the ball after the PSU game. He's damaged goods.

Stitt trusted that Simis would continue progressing against PSU, but he took a HUGE step back instead. That's why the ISU game plan was vanilla - at best.

If Simis was capable of doing what he did against UND, then he would have done it at ISU. The dome, sad though it may be, provided the best conditions possible for Simis to duplicate his UND performance.

He was too afraid to do it though. Not once did he throw a deep ball with any kind of accuracy that allowed Ellis or Jamaal to make play on the ball.

I sincerely hope, assuming he is 100%, that Gus is getting the 1st team reps going forward. I'm not sure how far this team is going to go this season, but I can tell you it will only be as far as Gus can take them.

 

[GoldStandardGriz]

There's a reason Gus was the starter & Simis third string to start the season, Gus is better. The only thing Simis has on Gus is that he's a better runner. Not saying Gus is great, but Simis is a mistake waiting to happen.