My belief is that he is a talented coach who has been developing kids that are coming into their upper class. I don't pretend to know all their Jimmys and Joes, I just have a lot of faith in Hawkins with the X's and O's, and the development there. Maybe I'm wrong, I'm quite literally just going off of my personal eye test watching them play.
To answer your question, though, I do think they could take a win off of either the Griz or the Cats. They do make me nervous. Their quick hitting passes on slants and routes over the shallow middle are absolutely things I would use to counter the aggressive 335 stack from the Griz. I have concerns there, yes, about the Griz playing them. We only escaped by 8 points last time, and that was our team that made the run to the natty.
You're very right that they need to figure out the defensive side of the ball. I'd read that Hawkins thinks the new coaching experience for 2025 will be big. Last year they had like 10 years of D1 coaching experience on the staff, this year it is 30 years. That's a big jump. They poached Grant Duff from Weber to be their new DC, and it seems like he has been very effective with the units he coaches.
I may well be wrong, and I genuinely mean it when I say that I know your knowledge of the Big Sky is greater than mine. I don't say that to butter you up, but to acknowledge that I'm going by feel here.