Key Match ups:
Griz D line vs NDSU line. The bison are big strong and experienced. Last year they had difficulty running up the middle & had to run to the edges, which they did with success. The Griz line is a bit smaller, with the lost of Tonga, i think we will miss having a big bodied NT when playing a power running team. The starters will play well, but depth is a concern. If the Bison need a long finishing drive to win the game, I think the Griz will have a tough time getting the stop.
Wentz vs the Griz D. NDSU QB is taoughed as the next NFL bound FCS QB. The Big Sky is full great passing teams, and the griz are built to play verse a passing team; lighter and more agile than what you might find in the MVC. If Wentz is forced to beat the Griz defense with his arm, I think we'll have the edge.
New Offense vs a young Defense: The Bison Defense is young, but they are probably reloading more than they are rebuilding. They'll be good by the middle of the season. But this is the first game of the year, they'll make mistakes. Remember that NDSU had trouble vs Weber at the start of last season, and Weber is a bottom feeder in the big sky. They might come out rusty again. The Offense for the Griz is new, even if many of the skill players have a bit of experience. Our O-Line will be shaky for awhile, maybe through October. We'll make our mistakes too. Three interceptions wouldn't surprise me.
We have an advantage with the new offense in that the Bison may not know what they are going to face. Sure they know its an Air Raid based system, high tempo etc. But the film on CSoM is probably limited in quantity and it can't be assumed to be exactly what the Griz will roll out. My hope is that we'll get a few early scores just on the surprise factor.
A second advantage the Griz has over the the Bison is that they have not played very many pass first teams over the last five years. Indiana State is the ONLY teaming the MVC that passes more then they run. The last passing team they played in the fcs playoffs was EWU back in 2010! They are not build around stopping passing teams, they are built to stop what they find in their league; power running teams. They will need to play in a nickel or dime package most of the game in order to match up with the Griz's four wide receiver scheme. That too takes NDSU's defense slightly out of their well honed, bread and butter, 4-3 tampa 2 scheme. If (big if) the Griz offense can get it together early, we might put some serious points on the board!
How the Griz might lose the game:
If the griz line cannot slow the rush of the NDSU front for at least 3 step drop, we will be in big, big trouble. Hopefully the have gelled over the course of the fall scrimmages.
Same is true with a press coverage, if we can't beat the high pressure defense we will get rolled! In the early scrimmages it seems the offense had difficulty with that type of defense.
If the Griz go 3 and out too often at the start of the game. A major component of Coach Stitts gameplan is to tire out the defense. NDSU WILL have long, clock consuming drives which will rest their defense, no doubt about that. We NEED to have sustained drives. I'd love to see a NDSU play off the line, follow the tampa 2 philosophy of keep everything in front of them. Forcing the Griz to make short, easy passes for a few yards at a time. Doesn't sound exciting to watch, and many viewers will look at the drive and think the Bison are the better team. However, multiple LONG drives, 12-18+ plays will exhaust the defense. That will pay dividends in the fourth quarter.
Find themselves is a tight game and allow the Bison to run out the clock during the second half of the fourth Quarter.
I think both of these teams will scores some points, maybe in the high 20's, low 30's. If the Griz jump out to a fast start, I think we'll be able to beat them. I don't think that we'll be able to play catch up late in the forth quarter.
Griz D line vs NDSU line. The bison are big strong and experienced. Last year they had difficulty running up the middle & had to run to the edges, which they did with success. The Griz line is a bit smaller, with the lost of Tonga, i think we will miss having a big bodied NT when playing a power running team. The starters will play well, but depth is a concern. If the Bison need a long finishing drive to win the game, I think the Griz will have a tough time getting the stop.
Wentz vs the Griz D. NDSU QB is taoughed as the next NFL bound FCS QB. The Big Sky is full great passing teams, and the griz are built to play verse a passing team; lighter and more agile than what you might find in the MVC. If Wentz is forced to beat the Griz defense with his arm, I think we'll have the edge.
New Offense vs a young Defense: The Bison Defense is young, but they are probably reloading more than they are rebuilding. They'll be good by the middle of the season. But this is the first game of the year, they'll make mistakes. Remember that NDSU had trouble vs Weber at the start of last season, and Weber is a bottom feeder in the big sky. They might come out rusty again. The Offense for the Griz is new, even if many of the skill players have a bit of experience. Our O-Line will be shaky for awhile, maybe through October. We'll make our mistakes too. Three interceptions wouldn't surprise me.
We have an advantage with the new offense in that the Bison may not know what they are going to face. Sure they know its an Air Raid based system, high tempo etc. But the film on CSoM is probably limited in quantity and it can't be assumed to be exactly what the Griz will roll out. My hope is that we'll get a few early scores just on the surprise factor.
A second advantage the Griz has over the the Bison is that they have not played very many pass first teams over the last five years. Indiana State is the ONLY teaming the MVC that passes more then they run. The last passing team they played in the fcs playoffs was EWU back in 2010! They are not build around stopping passing teams, they are built to stop what they find in their league; power running teams. They will need to play in a nickel or dime package most of the game in order to match up with the Griz's four wide receiver scheme. That too takes NDSU's defense slightly out of their well honed, bread and butter, 4-3 tampa 2 scheme. If (big if) the Griz offense can get it together early, we might put some serious points on the board!
How the Griz might lose the game:
If the griz line cannot slow the rush of the NDSU front for at least 3 step drop, we will be in big, big trouble. Hopefully the have gelled over the course of the fall scrimmages.
Same is true with a press coverage, if we can't beat the high pressure defense we will get rolled! In the early scrimmages it seems the offense had difficulty with that type of defense.
If the Griz go 3 and out too often at the start of the game. A major component of Coach Stitts gameplan is to tire out the defense. NDSU WILL have long, clock consuming drives which will rest their defense, no doubt about that. We NEED to have sustained drives. I'd love to see a NDSU play off the line, follow the tampa 2 philosophy of keep everything in front of them. Forcing the Griz to make short, easy passes for a few yards at a time. Doesn't sound exciting to watch, and many viewers will look at the drive and think the Bison are the better team. However, multiple LONG drives, 12-18+ plays will exhaust the defense. That will pay dividends in the fourth quarter.
Find themselves is a tight game and allow the Bison to run out the clock during the second half of the fourth Quarter.
I think both of these teams will scores some points, maybe in the high 20's, low 30's. If the Griz jump out to a fast start, I think we'll be able to beat them. I don't think that we'll be able to play catch up late in the forth quarter.
