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MBBALL 14 Seed!

Whirly said:
That’s not how seedings in the tournament work. That is a general guide and nothing more. The tournament seedings are based on NET, KenPom, Torvik, BPI, Strength of Record, KPI and WAB. This year WAB took more precidence than past years. A simple example is that Duke was the #1 ranked team but Auburn was defined as the #1 overall seed in the tournament even though Auburn lost 3 of its last 4 games. This applies all through the brackets. This is why Michigan as an example beat Wisconsin twice but is a 5 seed whereas Wisconsin is a 3 seed. It’s why Missouri was the 23rd ranked team but ended up a 6th seed. Rankings only apply to the #1 seeds and only loosely there. Polls are based on voted by people not on the committee and only on quad segregated wins. Seeding is based on metrics and “discussion” using those metrics as the main guide. You can’t look at Montana and say they would be the 70th ranked team based on a 14th seed. There are many teams stronger than 10 through 16 seeds who aren’t even in the tournament.
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What do you think of Wisconsin’s loss to Penn State and relatively close game against Montana State?
 
5280Griz said:
What do you think of Wisconsin’s loss to Penn State and relatively close game against Montana State?
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Both are ups and downs of a team’s season. Many teams lose in an extended season to teams they shouldn’t lose too. We all know this. The Eagles in the NFL lost to the Falcons and the Commanders in the regular season but still won the after beating the Commanders in the playoffs and then the SB. The Eagles were the best team in football this year. Auburn lost 3 of its 4 last games but is the number 1 overall seed. The metrics show them as the strongest team. I can’t comment alot on Montana State. Off the top of my head I don’t know how they finished I’m sure you do. I don’t believe the committee’s metrics look at how close games are but they may. I know they look at efficiencies on offense and defense but I don’t believe they say “this is a close game and it shouldn’t be”. All players in D1 basketball are good - even on teams with poor season record results. If a team doesn’t take a team seriously or look past them they could get beat or the game could be close. Penn State is a strong team and played very strong in the Big Ten season losing many games at the very end. That was a painful loss for Wisconsin as it dropped them out of a double bye and forced them to play 4 days in a row which I believe cost them the Big Ten Tourney Championship as I believe they were tired. Penn State starts 3 players who are 5 Star recruits. They are not a pushover. There is not a team in the Country, that views that team as weak. As an example they lost in the last few seconds to Oregon by one point and you know how the Oregon vs Montana game turned out. Would you have viewed the Montana vs Oregon game differently if Montana lost by 1 point? I would have! Was I disappointed in Wisconsin losing to Penn State - Yup! Was I disappointed that Montana got destroyed by Oregon - Yup! But those games are not defining games to either Wisconsin or Montana’s seasons. They made them stronger.

I’m going to move on from our conversation here. I’m anxious to watch Montana vs Wisconsin and I hope it is a good game. Both teams had great seasons no matter how it turns out. As I mentioned in my original post I shared what I saw of Wisconsin this year to those here who probably didn’t watch them much. They are a very strong team. ESPN in the article this morning had them as a team with a final 4 ceiling. I believe that is accurate. I know of no team that will intimdate them and I don’t believe there is any team that wants to play them. Are they as good as the 2015 - No. Are they better than the team that played Montana in 2012 - Yes, the current team is better. The only reason I initially replied was after a big laugh I had after reading posts here that Wisconsin was a “good draw” for Montana as a 3 seed. To me that was a comical comment.

We’ll see on Thursday how it all turns out. Enjoy the tournament! I’m going back to lurking and not commenting.
 
5280Griz said:
What do you think of Wisconsin’s loss to Penn State and relatively close game against Montana State?
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Whirly covered a lot, but I’ll add that Klesmit was out the last few games of the regular season. He’s a key player, especially defensively.

Montana State (which I have learned today are bubs)? I went back to look at the posts from that game, which was game #2 for us. Pretty restless fanbase at that point after a less than convincing win that was even except Wisconsin hitting way more FTs. That was the part of the season before Arizona, which was the turning point when expectations changed.
 
formerlybis said:
Whirly covered a lot, but I’ll add that Klesmit was out the last few games of the regular season. He’s a key player, especially defensively.

Montana State (which I have learned today are bubs)? I went back to look at the posts from that game, which was game #2 for us. Pretty restless fanbase at that point after a less than convincing win that was even except Wisconsin hitting way more FTs. That was the part of the season before Arizona, which was the turning point when expectations changed.
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Bub is a playful slightly insulting nickname for our regional rival like the nickname Fantastic Illinois Buddies for the people from the land of driving without thinking.
 
formerlybis said:
Whirly covered a lot, but I’ll add that Klesmit was out the last few games of the regular season. He’s a key player, especially defensively.

Montana State (which I have learned today are bubs)? I went back to look at the posts from that game, which was game #2 for us. Pretty restless fanbase at that point after a less than convincing win that was even except Wisconsin hitting way more FTs. That was the part of the season before Arizona, which was the turning point when expectations changed.
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Correct, "bubs". It's a far better moniker than they deserve, but people tend to be Montana Nice around here so we refrain from calling them more appropriate names.

Sounds like our programs have a lot in common. GRIZ lost all their games -- including the Tennessee and Oregon games -- before TDC found his rotation, and the GRIZ seemed to flip a switch. Not the same team we watched in December.
 
formerlybis said:
Or Goofers from Baja Manitoba….
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Grizzly bears and their Polar cousins are at the top of the food chain, my cousin had to shoot a ornery badger in the head, point blank as it tried to climb up the door of h I s Jeep to attack him,on a Central Montana ranch--damn mean little carnivores, and golden gophers are just road kill or badger bait !!!
 
EverettGriz said:
Correct, "bubs". It's a far better moniker than they deserve, but people tend to be Montana Nice around here so we refrain from calling them more appropriate names.

Sounds like our programs have a lot in common. GRIZ lost all their games -- including the Tennessee and Oregon games -- before TDC found his rotation, and the GRIZ seemed to flip a switch. Not the same team we watched in December.
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Our starting lineup and rotation has stayed the same, it's just that the coaches and players had to figure out how to play together. It was mentioned elsewhere, but Wisconsin lost 2 starters and a contributor to the portal last year, plus another starter to graduation. The two remaining starters were nice pieces, but not the stars. We picked up the #196th ranked transfer, and everyone else still with the team was going to have to fill the void. For these reasons, expectations were pretty low - we were the preseason consensus 12th-place team in the conference.

Well, that transfer player, Tonje, turned out to be a godsend, and if they re-ranked them now, he might very well be #1 - not hyperbole. His emergence may not be the only reason the Badgers took off, but he is easily more than half of the story.
 
Sconny backer, aka Whirly: Sconny has been knocked out of the first round two of the last four trips to the NCAA Tournament. Sconny is seen by the rest of the Big Ten as consistently underachieving on their seeding except when they make it to the Championship game and lose in a heartbreaker. Trust me, living in Minnesota and traveling to Denver regularly for my job, the altitude will have an effect on the Whiskey players.

​
2019#5First Round#12 OregonL 54–72
2021#9First Round
Second Round		#8 North Carolina
#1 Baylor		W 85–62
L 63–76
2022#3First Round
Second Round		#14 Colgate
#11 Iowa State		W 67–60
L 49–54
2024#5First Round#12 James MadisonL 61–72
 
GriznMN said:
Sconny backer, aka Whirly: Sconny has been knocked out of the first round two of the last four trips to the NCAA Tournament. Sconny is seen by the rest of the Big Ten as consistently underachieving on their seeding except when they make it to the Championship game and lose in a heartbreaker. Trust me, living in Minnesota and traveling to Denver regularly for my job, the altitude will have an effect on the Whiskey players.

​
2019#5First Round#12 OregonL 54–72
2021#9First Round
Second Round		#8 North Carolina
#1 Baylor		W 85–62
L 63–76
2022#3First Round
Second Round		#14 Colgate
#11 Iowa State		W 67–60
L 49–54
2024#5First Round#12 James MadisonL 61–72
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I feel like the Billy Crystal character in The Princess Bride - and thank you so much for bringing up such a painful subject...

The tourney is always a crapshoot - one off game and you're through. Yes, we have fallen victim to the dreaded 12-5 matchup twice in the last 4 tourneys. I'll just say "Middle Tenn St." to the Gopher fan. In 2021, we were a 9 seed and met the eventual national champ in round 2, so no shame there. The 2022 one was very sad because it was in Milwaukee and our starting PG (Chucky Hepburn, now starring at Louisville) got injured at the beginning of the second half, didn't return, and that was that. Even if they had managed to get past ISU, they were toast without having Chucky's services on that team.

It has been a while since they made it to the second weekend - 2017, when they made it as an 8-seed after upsetting #1 overall seed Villanova in the second round (an extremely painful loss to Florida in the next round on a buzzer beater in OT). 2020 would have been interesting because they were on a big roll heading into the conference tournament as the 1-seed and 8 wins in a row before everything got shut down.
 
formerlybis said:
I feel like the Billy Crystal character in The Princess Bride - and thank you so much for bringing up such a painful subject...

The tourney is always a crapshoot - one off game and you're through. Yes, we have fallen victim to the dreaded 12-5 matchup twice in the last 4 tourneys. I'll just say "Middle Tenn St." to the Gopher fan. In 2021, we were a 9 seed and met the eventual national champ in round 2, so no shame there. The 2022 one was very sad because it was in Milwaukee and our starting PG (Chucky Hepburn, now starring at Louisville) got injured at the beginning of the second half, didn't return, and that was that. Even if they had managed to get past ISU, they were toast without having Chucky's services on that team.

It has been a while since they made it to the second weekend - 2017, when they made it as an 8-seed after upsetting #1 overall seed Villanova in the second round (an extremely painful loss to Florida in the next round on a buzzer beater in OT). 2020 would have been interesting because they were on a big roll heading into the conference tournament as the 1-seed and 8 wins in a row before everything got shut down.
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I was a big fan of that 2015 Badger team. That was a fun run to watch.
 
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