Who's with me?

Get the low down on Griz/FCS Football
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ilovethecats
Posts: 5007
Joined: Sun Nov 06, 2005 11:56 pm

AZGrizFan wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 9:05 pm
EverettGriz wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 9:26 am
Daily average deaths ARE down markedly (but no where NEAR 90%). But deaths are a trailing indicator. Right now, we're reaping the benefit of all the hard work we did in April and May, as well as the excellent work by front-line doctors to find methods to decrease the effects of swelling in patients.

If the death numbers are still low in September following the ridiculous new case numbers we have now, I'll be more of a believer. But I'll be honest, I'm not overly confident in that.

And remember, attempting to flatten the curve was not all about preventing death. It was about preventing the destruction of our health care system, and about having a hospital bed to put you in should you need care. Ask the residents of Houston how they feel about that.
Weekly deaths have dropped for 11 straight weeks in the US. 7-day moving average has dropped steadily from 2251/day in mid-April, to just 581this week.

Cases began increasing on 6/17. So using your assumption, deaths should start climbing right....about....NOW.

Please tell me you’re smarter than being a member of the “just wait two weeks” club, EG.

Oh, and Houston is fine. Seriously. They are at 95% normal ICU capacity. Guess what they were 1 year ago? 97% capacity. Empty beds don’t pay the bills. 73% of their cases are NON-COVID cases. And they have the capacity to add beds/staff/floors beyond their current capacity...

Don’t buy into the fear porn.
Quality stuff. :clap:
PlayerRep
Posts: 27392
Joined: Tue Aug 29, 2006 11:06 am

Paytonlives wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 8:25 pm
PlayerRep wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 7:57 pm
Who's with me, reminds me of John Belushi in Animal House.

Lets go!! HUHUHUHUHHHUHUHUUU!




ONE OF THE BEST SCENES EVER!!!
Thanks, Payton. Made me smile and laugh. The main sketch of Animal House was written by Chris Miller, Dartmouth '63 and member of AD frat. When I got to Dartmouth, there were many elements of Animal House there. Some people referred to us as the Dartmouth Animals.

"John Christian "Chris" Miller (born 1942 in Brooklyn) is an American author and screenwriter. He is best known for his work on National Lampoon magazine and the film Animal House, which he also acted in with co-writer/actor Douglas Kenney.[1] The latter was inspired by Miller's own experiences in the Alpha Delta Phi fraternity at Dartmouth College, in which he went by the name "Pinto". Miller graduated from Dartmouth in 1963." Wiki.
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EverettGriz
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AZGrizFan wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 9:05 pm
EverettGriz wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 9:26 am
Daily average deaths ARE down markedly (but no where NEAR 90%). But deaths are a trailing indicator. Right now, we're reaping the benefit of all the hard work we did in April and May, as well as the excellent work by front-line doctors to find methods to decrease the effects of swelling in patients.

If the death numbers are still low in September following the ridiculous new case numbers we have now, I'll be more of a believer. But I'll be honest, I'm not overly confident in that.

And remember, attempting to flatten the curve was not all about preventing death. It was about preventing the destruction of our health care system, and about having a hospital bed to put you in should you need care. Ask the residents of Houston how they feel about that.
Weekly deaths have dropped for 11 straight weeks in the US. 7-day moving average has dropped steadily from 2251/day in mid-April, to just 581this week.

Cases began increasing on 6/17. So using your assumption, deaths should start climbing right....about....NOW.

Please tell me you’re smarter than being a member of the “just wait two weeks” club, EG.

Oh, and Houston is fine. Seriously. They are at 95% normal ICU capacity. Guess what they were 1 year ago? 97% capacity. Empty beds don’t pay the bills. 73% of their cases are NON-COVID cases. And they have the capacity to add beds/staff/floors beyond their current capacity...

Don’t buy into the fear porn.
:?

There's a two week delay from infection to symptoms, not two weeks from infection to death.

And no, for what it's worth, I don't believe the hype from either side of the politically motivated nutjobs. Rather, I listen to the experts; I read and study; and I think for myself.
Booze is the duct tape of life.
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AZGrizFan
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Posts: 25663
Joined: Thu Sep 08, 2005 5:34 pm
Location: Texas

3-day moving average for daily deaths in the US from COVID-19:

4/16 - 2524
4/23 - 2520
4/30 - 2418
5/7 - 2383
5/14 - 1853
5/21 - 1482
5/28 - 1345
6/4 - 1100
6/11 - 1007
6/18 - 812
6/25- 781

Not a SINGLE measurement increased from the peak 3-day average on 4/16. 11 straight weeks of declining death rate. Despite the reopenings. Despite the riots/protests. Despite the political rallies.

Raw deaths continue to decline
The 3-day average continues to decline
The 7-day average continues to decline

Literally the ONLY metric that’s going up is new cases. The low point for the 3-day moving average of new cases was June 9th. The metric stood at 19,107, and hadn’t been that low since March 25th. That was the inflection point where the 3-day moving average began climbing. (Presumably from two solid weeks of riots and protests across the country). But that was TWENTY THREE DAYS ago. Not just one week. Not even just two weeks. Hell, not even THREE weeks ago. But 23 DAYS ago. We should have started seeing increases in the death count 10 days ago, at a minimum. But instead, what did we have Sunday? The lowest Sunday dearth count since March 22nd.

At my place of employment we’ve had 23 confirmed cases of COVID-19. Almost all in otherwise healthy individuals aged 55 or less. We’re 23-0, with nary a single hospitalization. THAT’S WHAT HAPPENS when healthy people go back to work. They’re going to get exposed, get a little sick, get over it, and go back to work again. That’s why I believe cases are going up, but deaths aren’t. Those at most risk are taking necessary precautions, and those at much less risk are going back to work (until the fear mongers shut down states again, I suppose).

Another factor is this: the more virulent strain kills its host, and then dies with it. The less virulent strain does NOT kill it’s host is is thus spread more prevalently, beginning to act more and more like the common flu. I believe that’s what we’re seeing now....the transformation of this virus into something significantly less lethal than it was originally.

And finally, one could argue that the most at-risk members of our society were already exposed in the early stages and died. Now that we have a better understanding of who/what it attacks, we’re able to take precautions to avoid a repeat of that (you know, like requiring nursing homes to take COVID patients — Thanks, Cuomo...).

Now, this is all pure conjecture (well, except the data part). I’m not a doctor, but I did stay in a Holiday Inn Express last night....
Guns kill people like spoons make you fat.
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AZGrizFan
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EverettGriz wrote:
Wed Jul 01, 2020 9:41 am
AZGrizFan wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 9:05 pm


Weekly deaths have dropped for 11 straight weeks in the US. 7-day moving average has dropped steadily from 2251/day in mid-April, to just 581this week.

Cases began increasing on 6/17. So using your assumption, deaths should start climbing right....about....NOW.

Please tell me you’re smarter than being a member of the “just wait two weeks” club, EG.

Oh, and Houston is fine. Seriously. They are at 95% normal ICU capacity. Guess what they were 1 year ago? 97% capacity. Empty beds don’t pay the bills. 73% of their cases are NON-COVID cases. And they have the capacity to add beds/staff/floors beyond their current capacity...

Don’t buy into the fear porn.
:?

There's a two week delay from infection to symptoms, not two weeks from infection to death.

And no, for what it's worth, I don't believe the hype from either side of the politically motivated nutjobs. Rather, I listen to the experts; I read and study; and I think for myself.
UP TO a 2 week delay, EG. 5-14 days. That’s what the “experts” say.
Guns kill people like spoons make you fat.
reinell30
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Location: Great Falls Mt

EverettGriz wrote:
Wed Jul 01, 2020 9:41 am
AZGrizFan wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 9:05 pm


Weekly deaths have dropped for 11 straight weeks in the US. 7-day moving average has dropped steadily from 2251/day in mid-April, to just 581this week.

Cases began increasing on 6/17. So using your assumption, deaths should start climbing right....about....NOW.

Please tell me you’re smarter than being a member of the “just wait two weeks” club, EG.

Oh, and Houston is fine. Seriously. They are at 95% normal ICU capacity. Guess what they were 1 year ago? 97% capacity. Empty beds don’t pay the bills. 73% of their cases are NON-COVID cases. And they have the capacity to add beds/staff/floors beyond their current capacity...

Don’t buy into the fear porn.
:?

There's a two week delay from infection to symptoms, not two weeks from infection to death.

And no, for what it's worth, I don't believe the hype from either side of the politically motivated nutjobs. Rather, I listen to the experts; I read and study; and I think for myself.
Think for yourself? Surely you jest.....Americans aren't allowed to do this...be careful....
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EverettGriz
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reinell30 wrote:
Wed Jul 01, 2020 9:46 am
EverettGriz wrote:
Wed Jul 01, 2020 9:41 am


:?

There's a two week delay from infection to symptoms, not two weeks from infection to death.

And no, for what it's worth, I don't believe the hype from either side of the politically motivated nutjobs. Rather, I listen to the experts; I read and study; and I think for myself.
Think for yourself? Surely you jest.....Americans aren't allowed to do this...be careful....
:lol:
Booze is the duct tape of life.
PlayerRep
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Even our young kitty isn't afraid of his shadow anymore.
marceagfan5
Posts: 1107
Joined: Wed Nov 17, 2010 9:48 pm

AZGrizFan wrote:
Wed Jul 01, 2020 9:44 am
3-day moving average for daily deaths in the US from COVID-19:

4/16 - 2524
4/23 - 2520
4/30 - 2418
5/7 - 2383
5/14 - 1853
5/21 - 1482
5/28 - 1345
6/4 - 1100
6/11 - 1007
6/18 - 812
6/25- 781

Not a SINGLE measurement increased from the peak 3-day average on 4/16. 11 straight weeks of declining death rate. Despite the reopenings. Despite the riots/protests. Despite the political rallies.

Raw deaths continue to decline
The 3-day average continues to decline
The 7-day average continues to decline

Literally the ONLY metric that’s going up is new cases. The low point for the 3-day moving average of new cases was June 9th. The metric stood at 19,107, and hadn’t been that low since March 25th. That was the inflection point where the 3-day moving average began climbing. (Presumably from two solid weeks of riots and protests across the country). But that was TWENTY THREE DAYS ago. Not just one week. Not even just two weeks. Hell, not even THREE weeks ago. But 23 DAYS ago. We should have started seeing increases in the death count 10 days ago, at a minimum. But instead, what did we have Sunday? The lowest Sunday dearth count since March 22nd.

At my place of employment we’ve had 23 confirmed cases of COVID-19. Almost all in otherwise healthy individuals aged 55 or less. We’re 23-0, with nary a single hospitalization. THAT’S WHAT HAPPENS when healthy people go back to work. They’re going to get exposed, get a little sick, get over it, and go back to work again. That’s why I believe cases are going up, but deaths aren’t. Those at most risk are taking necessary precautions, and those at much less risk are going back to work (until the fear mongers shut down states again, I suppose).

Another factor is this: the more virulent strain kills its host, and then dies with it. The less virulent strain does NOT kill it’s host is is thus spread more prevalently, beginning to act more and more like the common flu. I believe that’s what we’re seeing now....the transformation of this virus into something significantly less lethal than it was originally.

And finally, one could argue that the most at-risk members of our society were already exposed in the early stages and died. Now that we have a better understanding of who/what it attacks, we’re able to take precautions to avoid a repeat of that (you know, like requiring nursing homes to take COVID patients — Thanks, Cuomo...).

Now, this is all pure conjecture (well, except the data part). I’m not a doctor, but I did stay in a Holiday Inn Express last night....
Just curious (I’m not taking sides)...what do the numbers look like if you remove New York from the equation. Are we still seeing a drastic decrease looking at the rest of the country?
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AZGrizFan
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Location: Texas

marceagfan5 wrote:
Wed Jul 01, 2020 1:24 pm
AZGrizFan wrote:
Wed Jul 01, 2020 9:44 am
3-day moving average for daily deaths in the US from COVID-19:

4/16 - 2524
4/23 - 2520
4/30 - 2418
5/7 - 2383
5/14 - 1853
5/21 - 1482
5/28 - 1345
6/4 - 1100
6/11 - 1007
6/18 - 812
6/25- 781

Not a SINGLE measurement increased from the peak 3-day average on 4/16. 11 straight weeks of declining death rate. Despite the reopenings. Despite the riots/protests. Despite the political rallies.

Raw deaths continue to decline
The 3-day average continues to decline
The 7-day average continues to decline

Literally the ONLY metric that’s going up is new cases. The low point for the 3-day moving average of new cases was June 9th. The metric stood at 19,107, and hadn’t been that low since March 25th. That was the inflection point where the 3-day moving average began climbing. (Presumably from two solid weeks of riots and protests across the country). But that was TWENTY THREE DAYS ago. Not just one week. Not even just two weeks. Hell, not even THREE weeks ago. But 23 DAYS ago. We should have started seeing increases in the death count 10 days ago, at a minimum. But instead, what did we have Sunday? The lowest Sunday dearth count since March 22nd.

At my place of employment we’ve had 23 confirmed cases of COVID-19. Almost all in otherwise healthy individuals aged 55 or less. We’re 23-0, with nary a single hospitalization. THAT’S WHAT HAPPENS when healthy people go back to work. They’re going to get exposed, get a little sick, get over it, and go back to work again. That’s why I believe cases are going up, but deaths aren’t. Those at most risk are taking necessary precautions, and those at much less risk are going back to work (until the fear mongers shut down states again, I suppose).

Another factor is this: the more virulent strain kills its host, and then dies with it. The less virulent strain does NOT kill it’s host is is thus spread more prevalently, beginning to act more and more like the common flu. I believe that’s what we’re seeing now....the transformation of this virus into something significantly less lethal than it was originally.

And finally, one could argue that the most at-risk members of our society were already exposed in the early stages and died. Now that we have a better understanding of who/what it attacks, we’re able to take precautions to avoid a repeat of that (you know, like requiring nursing homes to take COVID patients — Thanks, Cuomo...).

Now, this is all pure conjecture (well, except the data part). I’m not a doctor, but I did stay in a Holiday Inn Express last night....
Just curious (I’m not taking sides)...what do the numbers look like if you remove New York from the equation. Are we still seeing a drastic decrease looking at the rest of the country?
Not sure. They certainly drove the early death count/case count....I know in Texas case #’s are up 4x, but deaths have remained relatively stable.
Guns kill people like spoons make you fat.
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WaGriz4life
Posts: 4062
Joined: Thu Feb 07, 2008 4:48 pm
Location: Montana

EverettGriz wrote:
Wed Jul 01, 2020 9:41 am
AZGrizFan wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 9:05 pm


Weekly deaths have dropped for 11 straight weeks in the US. 7-day moving average has dropped steadily from 2251/day in mid-April, to just 581this week.

Cases began increasing on 6/17. So using your assumption, deaths should start climbing right....about....NOW.

Please tell me you’re smarter than being a member of the “just wait two weeks” club, EG.

Oh, and Houston is fine. Seriously. They are at 95% normal ICU capacity. Guess what they were 1 year ago? 97% capacity. Empty beds don’t pay the bills. 73% of their cases are NON-COVID cases. And they have the capacity to add beds/staff/floors beyond their current capacity...

Don’t buy into the fear porn.
:?

There's a two week delay from infection to symptoms, not two weeks from infection to death.

And no, for what it's worth, I don't believe the hype from either side of the politically motivated nutjobs. Rather, I listen to the experts; I read and study; and I think for myself.
You are definitely not listening to the experts based on your posts. You are most certainly watching a lot of news though.

Also if you look at COVID Deaths day by day you will see the 90% decrease most days since April, since you are studying.
ilovethecats
Posts: 5007
Joined: Sun Nov 06, 2005 11:56 pm

AZGrizFan wrote:
Wed Jul 01, 2020 9:44 am
3-day moving average for daily deaths in the US from COVID-19:

4/16 - 2524
4/23 - 2520
4/30 - 2418
5/7 - 2383
5/14 - 1853
5/21 - 1482
5/28 - 1345
6/4 - 1100
6/11 - 1007
6/18 - 812
6/25- 781

Not a SINGLE measurement increased from the peak 3-day average on 4/16. 11 straight weeks of declining death rate. Despite the reopenings. Despite the riots/protests. Despite the political rallies.

Raw deaths continue to decline
The 3-day average continues to decline
The 7-day average continues to decline

Literally the ONLY metric that’s going up is new cases. The low point for the 3-day moving average of new cases was June 9th. The metric stood at 19,107, and hadn’t been that low since March 25th. That was the inflection point where the 3-day moving average began climbing. (Presumably from two solid weeks of riots and protests across the country). But that was TWENTY THREE DAYS ago. Not just one week. Not even just two weeks. Hell, not even THREE weeks ago. But 23 DAYS ago. We should have started seeing increases in the death count 10 days ago, at a minimum. But instead, what did we have Sunday? The lowest Sunday dearth count since March 22nd.

At my place of employment we’ve had 23 confirmed cases of COVID-19. Almost all in otherwise healthy individuals aged 55 or less. We’re 23-0, with nary a single hospitalization. THAT’S WHAT HAPPENS when healthy people go back to work. They’re going to get exposed, get a little sick, get over it, and go back to work again. That’s why I believe cases are going up, but deaths aren’t. Those at most risk are taking necessary precautions, and those at much less risk are going back to work (until the fear mongers shut down states again, I suppose).

Another factor is this: the more virulent strain kills its host, and then dies with it. The less virulent strain does NOT kill it’s host is is thus spread more prevalently, beginning to act more and more like the common flu. I believe that’s what we’re seeing now....the transformation of this virus into something significantly less lethal than it was originally.

And finally, one could argue that the most at-risk members of our society were already exposed in the early stages and died. Now that we have a better understanding of who/what it attacks, we’re able to take precautions to avoid a repeat of that (you know, like requiring nursing homes to take COVID patients — Thanks, Cuomo...).

Now, this is all pure conjecture (well, except the data part). I’m not a doctor, but I did stay in a Holiday Inn Express last night....
This could possibly be the best post on egriz. Ever.

Unless of course there’s something really witty about coach Choate....
ilovethecats
Posts: 5007
Joined: Sun Nov 06, 2005 11:56 pm

EverettGriz wrote:
Wed Jul 01, 2020 9:41 am
AZGrizFan wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 9:05 pm


Weekly deaths have dropped for 11 straight weeks in the US. 7-day moving average has dropped steadily from 2251/day in mid-April, to just 581this week.

Cases began increasing on 6/17. So using your assumption, deaths should start climbing right....about....NOW.

Please tell me you’re smarter than being a member of the “just wait two weeks” club, EG.

Oh, and Houston is fine. Seriously. They are at 95% normal ICU capacity. Guess what they were 1 year ago? 97% capacity. Empty beds don’t pay the bills. 73% of their cases are NON-COVID cases. And they have the capacity to add beds/staff/floors beyond their current capacity...

Don’t buy into the fear porn.
:?

There's a two week delay from infection to symptoms, not two weeks from infection to death.

And no, for what it's worth, I don't believe the hype from either side of the politically motivated nutjobs. Rather, I listen to the experts; I read and study; and I think for myself.
EG, we don’t see eye to eye on this one. But I bet I’m looking you up come mid November and I’ll buy you a drink at whatever downtown Missoula hippy place you choose! ;)
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EverettGriz
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WaGriz4life wrote:
Wed Jul 01, 2020 11:01 pm
EverettGriz wrote:
Wed Jul 01, 2020 9:41 am


:?

There's a two week delay from infection to symptoms, not two weeks from infection to death.

And no, for what it's worth, I don't believe the hype from either side of the politically motivated nutjobs. Rather, I listen to the experts; I read and study; and I think for myself.
You are definitely not listening to the experts based on your posts. You are most certainly watching a lot of news though.

Also if you look at COVID Deaths day by day you will see the 90% decrease most days since April, since you are studying.
The only time I “watch” news is when I travel internationally.

No where are the numbers even close to a 90% decrease. Even on those “news” sources people watch.
Booze is the duct tape of life.
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CDAGRIZ
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I was told there would be fear porn. Now, I see there is no fear porn, and now I’m mad, and now I hate everything.
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EverettGriz
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CDAGRIZ wrote:
Fri Jul 03, 2020 9:50 am
I was told there would be fear porn. Now, I see there is no fear porn, and now I’m mad, and now I hate everything.
You want fear porn? Dial some good ol' vintage stuff up on your wife's laptop and after you're...uh...finished, walk away without clearing your history.

You'll damn sure fear porn after that!


Or so I'm led to believe by, umm, my friend, yeah friend!, to whom this happened.
Booze is the duct tape of life.
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CDAGRIZ
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EverettGriz wrote:
Fri Jul 03, 2020 11:49 am
CDAGRIZ wrote:
Fri Jul 03, 2020 9:50 am
I was told there would be fear porn. Now, I see there is no fear porn, and now I’m mad, and now I hate everything.
You want fear porn? Dial some good ol' vintage stuff up on your wife's laptop and after you're...uh...finished, walk away without clearing your history.

You'll damn sure fear porn after that!


Or so I'm led to believe by, umm, my friend, yeah friend!, to whom this happened.
:lol: :lol:
OK, true story time: In what I refer to as "the in-between time" after college and before getting married, my friend and I had a decent apartment with a built-in computer/office desk. I always plugged my work laptop in there at night. During one stretch, my buddy had a bunch of days off, so he'd stay up late ripping beers and playing PS2. One morning, I grabbed my laptop and fired it up at the office to find a Google image search for "Tits" on the screen. "Tits". No specificity. Just "Tits". This was like 2005-2006. With all that was available by that time, the best he could muster was "Tits".
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indian-outlaw
Posts: 2481
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Location: Portland OR

EverettGriz wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 9:26 am
Daily average deaths ARE down markedly (but no where NEAR 90%). But deaths are a trailing indicator. Right now, we're reaping the benefit of all the hard work we did in April and May, as well as the excellent work by front-line doctors to find methods to decrease the effects of swelling in patients.

If the death numbers are still low in September following the ridiculous new case numbers we have now, I'll be more of a believer. But I'll be honest, I'm not overly confident in that.

And remember, attempting to flatten the curve was not all about preventing death. It was about preventing the destruction of our health care system, and about having a hospital bed to put you in should you need care. Ask the residents of Houston how they feel about that.
This is the way I see it too. Even the experts have been conflicting and wrong about a lot of things concerning this pandemic. There are still so many unknowns about it. The people on here that state anything with confidence will probably be proven wrong.
"If you get to thinking' you're a person of some influence, try ordering somebody else's dog around" Will Rogers
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EverettGriz
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CDAGRIZ wrote:
Fri Jul 03, 2020 12:04 pm
EverettGriz wrote:
Fri Jul 03, 2020 11:49 am


You want fear porn? Dial some good ol' vintage stuff up on your wife's laptop and after you're...uh...finished, walk away without clearing your history.

You'll damn sure fear porn after that!


Or so I'm led to believe by, umm, my friend, yeah friend!, to whom this happened.
:lol: :lol:
OK, true story time: In what I refer to as "the in-between time" after college and before getting married, my friend and I had a decent apartment with a built-in computer/office desk. I always plugged my work laptop in there at night. During one stretch, my buddy had a bunch of days off, so he'd stay up late ripping beers and playing PS2. One morning, I grabbed my laptop and fired it up at the office to find a Google image search for "Tits" on the screen. "Tits". No specificity. Just "Tits". This was like 2005-2006. With all that was available by that time, the best he could muster was "Tits".
Well, while somewhat broad, I'm moderately confident the search provided the returns desired.
Booze is the duct tape of life.
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CDAGRIZ
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EverettGriz wrote:
Fri Jul 03, 2020 1:44 pm
CDAGRIZ wrote:
Fri Jul 03, 2020 12:04 pm


:lol: :lol:
OK, true story time: In what I refer to as "the in-between time" after college and before getting married, my friend and I had a decent apartment with a built-in computer/office desk. I always plugged my work laptop in there at night. During one stretch, my buddy had a bunch of days off, so he'd stay up late ripping beers and playing PS2. One morning, I grabbed my laptop and fired it up at the office to find a Google image search for "Tits" on the screen. "Tits". No specificity. Just "Tits". This was like 2005-2006. With all that was available by that time, the best he could muster was "Tits".
Well, while somewhat broad, I'm moderately confident the search provided the returns desired.
I think he found what he was looking for. :D
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