Interesting that the committee has the Griz as the 5 seed in their first ranking.
https://www.facebook.com/share/p/1KEWKRLEEr/?mibextid=wwXIfr
https://www.facebook.com/share/p/1KEWKRLEEr/?mibextid=wwXIfr
-
Hi Guest, want to participate in the discussions, keep track of read/unread posts access private forums and more? Create your free account and increase the benefits of your eGriz.com experience today!
Playoff Committee has Montana as the 5 seed in first poll.
- Thread starter putter
- Start date
Copper Griz
Well-known member
The commentary is interesting as well. Saying the Griz have an easy schedule, etc. Who do they think MSU and Tarleton are playing? Outside of the MVC, who has a tough schedule? Oh yeah, the Griz are 2-0 vs MVC. Cats are what? Tarleton shouldn’t even be in the top 5.
mthoopsfan
Well-known member
Whatever? The Griz have to beat the Cats. And one of the top seeds is going to lose at least one game. And there are a few other tough games for them. And if the Griz beat the Cats, then the Cats won';t be seeded ahead of the Griz. Things will change.
This is spot on. The ranking of UM and MSU doesn't really matter at this point. The more concerning part is where they have Tarleton in comparison to both. If I was a Griz fan, that would be of greater concern as it could block a home semifinal, if they keep Tarleton ahead of them even if the Griz win out.
mthoopsfan
Well-known member
FCS Playoff Committee Members
[TR]
[td]Conf.[/td][td]Name[/td][td]School[/td][td]Term Expiration[/td]
[/TR]
[TR]
[td]Big Sky[/td][td]Leon Costello[/td][td]Montana State[/td][td]Aug-2028[/td]
[/TR]
[TR]
[td]CAA[/td][td]Mark Benson[/td][td]UAlbany[/td][td]Aug-2026[/td]
[/TR]
[TR]
[td]Ivy[/td][td]John Mack[/td][td]Princeton[/td][td]Aug-2029[/td]
[/TR]
[TR]
[td]MVFC[/td][td]Bill Chaves[/td][td]North Dakota[/td][td]Aug-2029[/td]
[/TR]
[TR]
[td]NEC[/td][td]Elliott Charles[/td][td]LIU[/td][td]Aug-2029[/td]
[/TR]
[TR]
[td]OVC-Big So[/td][td]Michael Allen[/td][td]Tennessee State[/td][td]Aug-2028[/td]
[/TR]
[TR]
[td]Patriot[/td][td]Kit Hughes[/td][td]Holy Cross[/td][td]Aug-2027[/td]
[/TR]
[TR]
[td]Pioneer[/td][td]Phil Esten[/td][td]St. Thomas[/td][td]Aug-2029[/td]
[/TR]
[TR[
Hard to read, but I gotta run now.
[td]SoCon[/td][td]**Mark Wharton[/td][td]Chattanooga[/td][td]Aug-2026[/td]
[/TR]
[TR]
[td]Southland[/td][td]Richard Duran[/td][td]UIW[/td][td]Aug-2029[/td]
[/TR]
[TR]
[td]UAC[/td][td]Josh Looney[/td][td]North Alabama[/td][td]Aug-2028[/td]
[/TR]
hilinegrizfan
Well-known member
I understand the rankings will work itself out after cat griz but I'm sick of seeing people say we have a soft schedule and ranking with that notion. yes, the cats played oregon. big whoop. they won't get docked for that loss. other than that our schedules are basically even. we played ND who is now a top 10 team, and idaho who was then a top 8 team. we play on the road at sac and weber. I don't see how you could say the cats or tarleton have a much harder schedule than us.
Grizzlies1982
Well-known member
Doesn't matter if they have msu at #4 and Grizzlies fifth, or the reverse. The cat-Griz game will sort that out.
The interesting part is Tarleton State at #3 (same as the polls showed). It suggests Tarleton will cinch up a top two seed unless they drop one of their remaining games. Then presumably, unless the Univ. of North Dakota takes them down, one of the two Dakota State teams would be taking the other top spot.
Thus, if Montana continues to win, they're likely vying for a #3 or #4 seed (with the NDSU at S.D. St. loser probably being given the other 3 or 4 slot). It is the same scenario for the cats too. Winning out probably can't get them into the top two.
Obviously not set in stone. Things may change with six games remaining on the schedules. Unless some of the top three teams drop unexpected games, the above appears to be most likely outcome. Speculation can be entertaining but all that matters is the Grizzlies stay focused and finish out undefeated.
The interesting part is Tarleton State at #3 (same as the polls showed). It suggests Tarleton will cinch up a top two seed unless they drop one of their remaining games. Then presumably, unless the Univ. of North Dakota takes them down, one of the two Dakota State teams would be taking the other top spot.
Thus, if Montana continues to win, they're likely vying for a #3 or #4 seed (with the NDSU at S.D. St. loser probably being given the other 3 or 4 slot). It is the same scenario for the cats too. Winning out probably can't get them into the top two.
Obviously not set in stone. Things may change with six games remaining on the schedules. Unless some of the top three teams drop unexpected games, the above appears to be most likely outcome. Speculation can be entertaining but all that matters is the Grizzlies stay focused and finish out undefeated.
wbtfg
Well-known member
Here's my prediction, assuming there aren't any unexpected upsets for any of the top 5 schools.
1. Whichever Dakota school wins out.
2. Whichever Montana school wins out.
3. Whichever Dakota School loses to #1
4. Tarleton
5. Whichever Montana School loses.
As I said to your post on AGS, I think Tarleton has to keep blowing teams out in order to lock down the #2 seed. They hardly play another team with a pulse the rest of the year.
Montana, the cats, NDSU, SDSU, and even UND all have perfectly viable tracks to a top 2 seed even if Tarleton wins out, IMO. If Tarleton barely beats ACU or Austin Peay, they're going to take a big hit in credibility.
hilinegrizfan
Well-known member
This would make the most sense, which is why it probably won't happen.
My only correction would be that MSU's path to the #2 is a lot more perilous, especially if the Dakota Marker is close and SDSU ends up losing. I don't think there's a world where they put 10-2 MSU #2 over 11-1 SDSU who beat them earlier in the year.
Grizzlies1982
Well-known member
Anything is possible and your guess is quite legit. I'd prefer to see it shake out that way.
Yet today THE COMMITTEE which will actually seed these teams informed us they believe Tarleton State is the third best team in the land. They are set at #3 with one of the only two teams ahead of them guaranteed to have an upcoming loss.
Unless the Texans lose a game to someone it seems extremely unlikely that same Committee will suddenly change their opinion and drop them further down the list. I doubt the quality of their remaining opponents (or lack thereof), or the point spread of the outcomes will change this (sorry 1122). Somebody needs to bump them off to nudge them down the seeding list.
Though I do agree with 1122 on msu's chances. Cat fans really need So. Dakota State to win that game with No. Dakota State. With their head to head win, a one loss SD State team could easily get seeded ahead of msu. On the other hand, if the cats somehow destroy both Davis and the Grizzlies that would certainly get the Committee's attention and propel your kids into the top two. Simply winning those games won't necessarily do it.
I think you're misinterpreting what this list is. It is not a list of how the committee thinks the season will shake out.
This is essentially a list of how the committee sees the resumes of the teams in it so far. If UC Davis beats MSU, they are going to jump up. If NDSU and SDSU lose to UND, UND is going to rocket up the rankings.
These rankings can and will change a lot over the next few weeks. There will be wins by other teams that are much better than Tarleton's week 1 win over Army, and the rankings will reflect that.
Bozo JrCollegeofAG
Well-known member
I think it’s likely the Griz would have been #3 had we beat an FCS team instead of Division II CWU. That game could have big implications for the final seeding.
HelenaHandBasket
Well-known member
It won't.
I think this is spot on. And then we can all sit back and watch Tarleton get rolled in the playoffs.
Grizzlies1982
Well-known member
Thanks, but I realize this is the Committee's snapshot for now. It is if the playoffs were seeded today...
The outcomes over the next six weeks will shake things up. The head to heads between the Dakotas, Davis, cats, and our guys certainly will. The unexpected might too. All those outcomes will alter what we were shown today. Though it is rather unlikely a team that continues to win will drop. Possible but unlikely.
I am surprised how highly valued Tarleton State appears to be. They are sitting pretty (assuming they win out). If they continue to go undefeated, I don't see the Committee suddenly seeing them any lower than they do in today's snapshot. In all probability it would take something monumental for another school to leapfrog them. Such as the example of msu going undefeated and absolutely crushing UC Davis and Montana in the process. That is my two bits. Go Griz!
That is what concerns me. Even to date Tarlton's opponents have a combined record of 9-32 and the records of their remaining opponents are 16-15 (Montana's is 12-19). Hard to believe the Army win (3-3) is holding that much weight. I can see them winning out and if they do, how is Montana going to pass them? They have an FBS win and we have 2 top 10 (at the time) FCS wins and they still see Montana's schedule that much weaker to be in the 5th spot. The committee would have to flip flop and prioritize Montana's SOS over theirs to move them up. If that is the case, why are the 3 now?
Holy Cross in 2022 was undefeated with an FBS win over 7-6 Buffalo, and after the season shook out, they only managed the #6 seed. The shine will likely come off Tarleton as the blue blood programs start getting solid wins down the stretch. We could end the season with two wins better than Tarleton's win at Army, and the committee is going to recognize that.
