FCS Title Contenders - FCS Football Central/SI

[Wolf777]

Take it for what it’s worth, but Timothy is the co-host on the Blue Bloods podcast with Zach McKinnell and these guys spend a lot of time focusing on the FCS as a whole.

Since it’s been argued back and forth about how watered down the FCS is now vs. a decade + ago, this is a good article that looks retroactively at the pool of teams that had the ability to vie for a title year by year going back to ‘95. The results aren’t that surprising.

It’s worth the time to at least kill some time until camp opens up in a week.

How Many FCS Football Programs Are True National Title Contenders In 2025?

Which teams are true contenders for the FCS national championship in 2025?

www.si.com

 

[uofmman1122]

Montana wasn't a title contender in 2007 with like 8 NFL players on the roster????

UNI went 9-5 in 2014 and 2015 and didn't make it past the quarterfinals, how were they a title contender?

Yeah, this feels pretty bunk, to me.

 

[Wolf777]

Montana wasn't a title contender in 2007 with like 8 NFL players on the roster????

UNI went 9-5 in 2014 and 2015 and didn't make it past the quarterfinals, how were they a title contender?

Yeah, this feels pretty bunk, to me.

I agree with you. So is that even more of an indictment on the competition or lack thereof that NDSU was facing in the 2010’s in the FCS? Or how much they put themselves in front of everyone else?

I assume the 2007 team wasn’t listed because as he stated these were post season rankings. Pretty sure that was the Wofford year and likely affected the final rankings metrics given how bad of a loss that was. Pretty sure that team was absolutely a title contender undefeated heading into that game.

Curious for others to chime in on big misses though. 3 missed in 30 years isn’t terrible out of 120. Hindsight is always 20/20 though, so I’m taking it for what it is as a fun look back at what the FCS was and where it is now.

 

[66volvo]

Always surprised to see New Hampshire in the historic mix. Don't know about their conference but would like to see them make some noise amid all the other powerhouses.

 

[AZDoc]

I read this this morning as well. I think it is actually pretty good, although with transfer portal it (and pretty much anything) is suspect. Honestly Sac State has a great chance if everything works out well by the end of the year just based on talent. If anything, I love that the Griz made it to the possible contenders. Gives them something to strive for.

 

[AZGrizFan]

Can someone outline what MSU lost and gained through graduation and the portal? It seems odd to just bless them as national title contenders when it seems as though they have way more question marks than answers at this point...

 

[alabamagrizzly]

I can only speak for non O lineman offensive players since I already have that info readily available.
Replacing
QB1
RB1
RB4
WR1
WR3
TE1
TE2
Amongst others that couldve participated and broke out this year. You know, cus they’re back ups are always better then their starters.

 

[ElrodGrizzly]

Can someone outline what MSU lost and gained through graduation and the portal? It seems odd to just bless them as national title contenders when it seems as though they have way more question marks than answers at this point...

In addition to Bama's side, they lost a LOT from their DBs without adding much back in.

 

[HelenaHandBasket]

Can someone outline what MSU lost and gained through graduation and the portal? It seems odd to just bless them as national title contenders when it seems as though they have way more question marks than answers at this point...

From a plus/minus they are probably sitting better than Montana just based on numbers. We will see how it plays out on the field.

 

[MSU01]

Can someone outline what MSU lost and gained through graduation and the portal? It seems odd to just bless them as national title contenders when it seems as though they have way more question marks than answers at this point...

QB: Duh.
RB: Last year's leading rusher Scottre Humphrey transferred out. The next four leading rushers (Adam Jones, Colson Coon, Jared White, Julius Davis) all return.
WR: Quite a bit of turnover here. Taco Dowler (2024 leading receiver) returns as well as Ryan King (2024 GA Tech transfer). Ty McCullough (2nd leading receiver in 2024) and Lonyatta Alexander (4th) left through graduation and transfer respectively. Main addition here is Chris Long, transfer from Rutgers who should have a big role.
TE: Rohan Jones (3rd leading receiver) transferred out and Ryan Lonergan (5th) graduated. Hunter Provience and Rylan Schlepp are the main guys for 2025, both have had significant playing time in the past and are good players.
OL: Conner Moore (LT) transferred out to Michigan State. On the current depth chart, 4 starters have been full-time starters in the past or have made starts due to injuries. The OL is still going to be the main strength of the offense, lots of talent and depth.

DL: Brody Grebe graduated but the other three starters return, plus numerous others who played significant snaps last season. Another big area of strength and depth.
LB: Last year's two starters McCade O'Reilly and Danny U graduated. Both of this year's projected starters Neil Daily and Bryce Grebe played significant snaps in 2024 especially after Danny U was injured. Depth could be a question mark if one of the starters goes down.
CB: Big question mark here, MSU lost pretty much everyone to graduation or transfer and will be relying largely on redshirt freshmen and sophomores.
S: Both starters lost to graduation or transfer. Caden Dowler returns from injury and two JC transfers were brought in to compete for spots.

These days it's hard to find a team that doesn't have a ton of question marks given how much player movement there is from year to year, but MSU will once again be very deep and talented on the offensive and defensive lines and that goes a long way. Personally I don't buy into the Sac State hype and fully expect that the Big Sky championship will be decided on November 22nd.

 

[AZGrizFan]

These days it's hard to find a team that doesn't have a ton of question marks given how much player movement there is from year to year, but MSU will once again be very deep and talented on the offensive and defensive lines and that goes a long way. Personally I don't buy into the Sac State hype and fully expect that the Big Sky championship will be decided on November 22nd.

Thanks for the info. Much appreciated. Just seems odd that a team that lost QB1, RB1, CB 1&2 and Safeties 1&2, best stud D-Lineman and 2/3 linebackers is expected to just not miss a beat, while others in the same boat are expected to struggle while units gel. I mean, that's 6/7 of your back 7 GONE. Along with Grebe. And as we've seen in the past, having "significant snaps" doesn't necessarily translate into just stepping into the role and the unit performs the same.

But I fully agree with your last statement.

It's as it should be.

 

[Griz til I die]

Thanks for the info. Much appreciated. Just seems odd that a team that lost QB1, RB1, CB 1&2 and Safeties 1&2, best stud D-Lineman and 2/3 linebackers is expected to just not miss a beat, while others in the same boat are expected to struggle while units gel. I mean, that's 6/7 of your back 7 GONE. Along with Grebe. And as we've seen in the past, having "significant snaps" doesn't necessarily translate into just stepping into the role and the unit performs the same.

But I fully agree with your last statement.

It's as it should be.

The cats are gonna be nowhere near as good as they were last year. Last year they only had 3 games that were one possession games and lost only one game all year. This year there’s a 99.9% chance they’ll lose multiple games. How many will they lose? Remains to be seen. I suspect they’ll have several more close games this year as well.

 

[MSU01]

Thanks for the info. Much appreciated. Just seems odd that a team that lost QB1, RB1, CB 1&2 and Safeties 1&2, best stud D-Lineman and 2/3 linebackers is expected to just not miss a beat, while others in the same boat are expected to struggle while units gel. I mean, that's 6/7 of your back 7 GONE. Along with Grebe. And as we've seen in the past, having "significant snaps" doesn't necessarily translate into just stepping into the role and the unit performs the same.

But I fully agree with your last statement.

It's as it should be.

I don't think anyone's expecting the team to not miss a beat, clearly there's going to be some growing pains they'll have to work through just like any other team. The SDSU game will be huge, but they of course have had greater turmoil over the offseason than MSU and the game is in Bozeman this time. Ultimately I think 10-2 or 9-3 are the most likely outcomes for regular season record when all is said and done, and any MVFC or Big Sky team that can get a Top 4 playoff seed and stay at home at least through the quarterfinals instantly becomes a legit contender at that point. We'll see what happens on the field!

 

[uofmman1122]

I agree with you. So is that even more of an indictment on the competition or lack thereof that NDSU was facing in the 2010’s in the FCS? Or how much they put themselves in front of everyone else?

I assume the 2007 team wasn’t listed because as he stated these were post season rankings. Pretty sure that was the Wofford year and likely affected the final rankings metrics given how bad of a loss that was. Pretty sure that team was absolutely a title contender undefeated heading into that game.

Curious for others to chime in on big misses though. 3 missed in 30 years isn’t terrible out of 120. Hindsight is always 20/20 though, so I’m taking it for what it is as a fun look back at what the FCS was and where it is now.

Their methods are silly. The computer rankings always heavily weight certain teams and conferences even if there is evidence to the contrary based on the games played. Like in 2023 when NDSU was 4-2 and 1-2 in conference, they computer polls still had them at like #3 in the country. This is exactly how 9-5 UNI somehow gets title contender status. Montana loses one upset game in 2007 and suddenly we're horrible.

I also think using these post-season finishes and trying to project them forward is dumb. This type of analysis would look rightfully silly if you went season by season predicting the next good teams from 2003-2010 based on this method from the previous seasons. We just currently exist in an FCS universe where one team is way better than everyone else.

But hey, here we are talking about it, so good on them, I guess lol

 

[alabamagrizzly]

QB: Duh.
RB: Last year's leading rusher Scottre Humphrey transferred out. The next four leading rushers (Adam Jones, Colson Coon, Jared White, Julius Davis) all return.
WR: Quite a bit of turnover here. Taco Dowler (2024 leading receiver) returns as well as Ryan King (2024 GA Tech transfer). Ty McCullough (2nd leading receiver in 2024) and Lonyatta Alexander (4th) left through graduation and transfer respectively. Main addition here is Chris Long, transfer from Rutgers who should have a big role.
TE: Rohan Jones (3rd leading receiver) transferred out and Ryan Lonergan (5th) graduated. Hunter Provience and Rylan Schlepp are the main guys for 2025, both have had significant playing time in the past and are good players.
OL: Conner Moore (LT) transferred out to Michigan State. On the current depth chart, 4 starters have been full-time starters in the past or have made starts due to injuries. The OL is still going to be the main strength of the offense, lots of talent and depth.

DL: Brody Grebe graduated but the other three starters return, plus numerous others who played significant snaps last season. Another big area of strength and depth.
LB: Last year's two starters McCade O'Reilly and Danny U graduated. Both of this year's projected starters Neil Daily and Bryce Grebe played significant snaps in 2024 especially after Danny U was injured. Depth could be a question mark if one of the starters goes down.
CB: Big question mark here, MSU lost pretty much everyone to graduation or transfer and will be relying largely on redshirt freshmen and sophomores.
S: Both starters lost to graduation or transfer. Caden Dowler returns from injury and two JC transfers were brought in to compete for spots.

These days it's hard to find a team that doesn't have a ton of question marks given how much player movement there is from year to year, but MSU will once again be very deep and talented on the offensive and defensive lines and that goes a long way. Personally I don't buy into the Sac State hype and fully expect that the Big Sky championship will be decided on November 22nd.

So did your Bio Engineering department learn how to mass produce Daily’s and Grebe’s?

 

[HookedonGriz]

Can someone outline what MSU lost and gained through graduation and the portal? It seems odd to just bless them as national title contenders when it seems as though they have way more question marks than answers at this point...

Regardless of everything else they lost, you simply don’t lose a four year starting quarterback who wins the Walter Payton award, plays in two national championships, gets drafted into the NFL and not go backwards from that alone. Tommy is literally the engine who made that machine go….his loss will be much more profound and impactful than anyone over there wants to admit.

 

[mthoopsfan]

Surprising that SDSU was the only contender in 2023. If Cliff scores late in first half and we don’t fumble the completed pass at start of 2d half at midfield, maybe UM is the only contender.

 

[Montanabob]

Oline was 10 deep at starters last year and losing a few wont matter. They set the tone for everyone in the running to get yards, no matter who ran it. i think we have the same situation this year with 10 starters on Oline and RBs will get lots of yards. The difference will be if the QB selected can actually complete 150+ yards passing a game to force D to play against the pass. 200 yards passing a game, MSU doesn't lose.

D some questions that need worked out but i see no reason to panic. i see a loss at O, win at gold rush and the only game i expect to be close is in zoo town. so yes, i see 10-1 going into CatGriz game and i expect a 9-2 griz team going for the BSC title. as for a winner, home team has had the advantage but i expect a close game decided by less than 7 AS OF TODAY. Injuries and other factors still could change everything.

 

[MSU01]

So did your Bio Engineering department learn how to mass produce Daily’s and Grebe’s?

I hope so, although this Daily is not related to Bobby & Brad Daly from Helena. Too bad for us Bobcats that Tommy Mellott only has sisters! I always enjoy seeing multiple guys from the same family come through the programs on either side of the rivalry.

 

[kemajic]

i expect a close game decided by less than 7 AS OF TODAY. Injuries and other factors still could change everything.

There hasn't been a close game in Griz/cat for many years. Consistent blowouts by the home team. What indication is there that this year would be any different?