Road to the 2025 Big Sky Championship

[GrizTexas]

That team was talented….no doubt. But they got pounded by Sac and the Cats. Should have made it further with that talent and been able to win one of those two aforementioned games. 5 picks vs Weber didn’t help either in playoffs. What was that team missing?

Safeties that could cover the deep routes....

 

[Mavman]

Well they did finish 6-2 last year and in a tie for 3rd with Idaho and only behind the Cats and UC Davis. Now Brian Wright has a season under his belt and Pennington is a damn fine quarterback.

I hear ya. It just seems a theme on e-griz every off season NAU will be special and usually disappoint.
Don't listen to me anyways I'm beating the drum for ISU to make the playoffs. That proves my Football IQ is in the low teens.

 

[Griz til I die]

Sneed got hurt at Sac St. It took the wind out of the Griz. Sneed was a fireball.

Lucas Johnson also got hurt at Sac State. Remember they head hunted him on purpose cause they couldn't stop him. Don't be surprised if you see them do that again this year with either Jensen or Ah Yat.

 

[HelenaHandBasket]

Lucas Johnson also got hurt at Sac State. Remember they head hunted him on purpose cause they couldn't stop him. Don't be surprised if you see them do that again this year with either Jensen or Ah Yat.

Seriously? WTF.

 

[Griz til I die]

Seriously? WTF.

Dude go back and watch the play. You can't tell me it wasn't an intentional hit.

 

[coyote]

Dude go back and watch the play. You can't tell me it wasn't an intentional hit.

Most thought so at the time.

 

[HelenaHandBasket]

Dude go back and watch the play. You can't tell me it wasn't an intentional hit.

Even if he did, and I don't think he did, to make the declaration that they would be intentionally head hunting the Griz QB this October is a total pussy move.

 

[HookedonGriz]

As we all know, due to conference scheduling imbalances, some teams don't face the top contenders in a given year. Occasionally, like in 2019, the best teams all play each other, creating a fun title race between the best of the best. Other, more frequent times (e.g., 2015 SUU, 2022 msu/SAC), teams benefit from avoiding strong opponents. Even non-title contenders (like NAU last year) can inflate their records with weaker schedules.

This isn’t a complaint—just an observation, and I wanted to look at the schedules this season to get an idea of who might benefit from playing fewer of the perceived stronger teams.

This is my own criteria, and people may disagree, but that's part of the fun. I consider these teams to be the top potential 5 right now that are legit playoff contenders:
cats
Montana
Sac State
Davis
Idaho

Weber, Idaho State and NAU were honorable mention, but I can't really make a case for any of the other teams. For this exercise, I left them all out of the top teams (because I don't think they will be).

Based on this, the team that has the WORST schedule in the conference is Idaho State: They play 4 of the top 5 teams (msu, UM, UCD, and Idaho), with 3 of those games (msu, UCD, Idaho) all on the road.

The team with the EASIEST schedule is...........

The neighbors lol did you think it would be anyone else?

The cats play just 2 of the other top teams (UM, UCD), and only the game against us is on the road. They do have a potential trap game @ NAU, but the rest of their schedule should be a walk in the park.

The Griz, thankfully, don't have too difficult a slate, even though we play Sac, msu, and Idaho--only one of those games is an away contest. Sac is in a similar boat, with only one away game against the other top teams. Idaho and UC Davis play 3 of the other top teams, with 2 of those games on the road each.

Throughout the season, I'll come back to this thread and take stock of which teams avoided top teams, especially if something crazy happens, and teams we don't consider contenders somehow step up. I may even make a Google doc where people can pick their own top teams and see how the schedules' difficulty changes. Here is the number of top teams each school plays based on my top team assumptions for the whole conference:

*Top team

Team	Home games against top teams	Away games against top teams
msu	1 - (UCD)	1 - (UM)
UM	2 - (msu, IDAHO)	1 - (SAC)
SAC	2 - (UM, IDAHO)	1 - (UCD)
IDAHO	1 - (UCD)	2 - (UM, SAC)
UCD	1 - (SAC)	2 - (msu, IDAHO)
CP	2 - (msu, UCD)	2 - (UM, SAC)
ISU	1 - (UM)	3 - (msu, UCD, IDAHO)
WEB	2 - (UM, SAC)	2 - (msu, UCD)
EWU	2 - (SAC IDAHO)	2 - (UM, msu)
PSU	2 - (UM, SAC)	1 - (IDAHO)
UNC	2 - (msu, UCD)	2 - (SAC, IDAHO)
NAU	2 - (msu, IDAHO)	1 - (UCD)

If I somehow made any mistakes in this, please let me know, I did this in between work, and may have gotten some things wrong.

Nice work here. Solid analysis and I agree with your tip tier

 

[Griz til I die]

Even if he did, and I don't think he did, to make the declaration that they would be intentionally head hunting the Griz QB this October is a total pussy move.

Ok first of all I was at the game and visibly saw Sac State's sideline celebrating when he went out of the game. I can say with 95% confidence it was an intentional hit. The guy got ejected from the game for Targeting. He launched at him.

Second of all, I didn't necessarily say they would head hunt our QB again in October but I do find it ironic that our last 2 QB's to play in Sacramento got injured in the game. Not to mention that if the Griz are ahead in the game which by the way is on ESPN2 and perhaps the biggest game in Sac State's history, I could see them doing just about anything to win this game. God willing I hope Sac State isn't that classless and would never think to do something like that but this wouldn't be the first time. The apple doesn't fall far from the tree.

 

[HelenaHandBasket]

Ok first of all I was at the game and visibly saw Sac State's sideline celebrating when he went out of the game. I can say with 95% confidence it was an intentional hit. The guy got ejected from the game for Targeting. He launched at him.

Celebrating a hit and getting ejected for targeting do not mean the hit to the head was intentional.

Second of all, I didn't necessarily say they would head hunt our QB again in October but I do find it ironic that our last 2 QB's to play in Sacramento got injured in the game. Not to mention that if the Griz are ahead in the game which by the way is on ESPN2 and perhaps the biggest game in Sac State's history, I could see them doing just about anything to win this game. God willing I hope Sac State isn't that classless and would never think to do something like that but this wouldn't be the first time. The apple doesn't fall far from the tree.

You literally said "Don't be surprised if you see them do that again this year with either Jensen or Ah Yat."

 

[alabamagrizzly]

Ok first of all I was at the game and visibly saw Sac State's sideline celebrating when he went out of the game. I can say with 95% confidence it was an intentional hit. The guy got ejected from the game for Targeting. He launched at him.

Second of all, I didn't necessarily say they would head hunt our QB again in October but I do find it ironic that our last 2 QB's to play in Sacramento got injured in the game. Not to mention that if the Griz are ahead in the game which by the way is on ESPN2 and perhaps the biggest game in Sac State's history, I could see them doing just about anything to win this game. God willing I hope Sac State isn't that classless and would never think to do something like that but this wouldn't be the first time. The apple doesn't fall far from the tree.

This is Pam State we’re talking about.

 

[alabamagrizzly]

Celebrating a hit and getting ejected for targeting do not mean the hit to the head was intentional.


You literally said "Don't be surprised if you see them do that again this year with either Jensen or Ah Yat."

Not a prediction. More of a warning. Not the same thing. Less confidence.

 

[HelenaHandBasket]

Not a prediction. More of a warning. Not the same thing. Less confidence.

Any level of confidence greater than zero makes it a dumb comment. Why post that crap?

 

[Griz til I die]

Celebrating a hit and getting ejected for targeting do not mean the hit to the head was intentional.


You literally said "Don't be surprised if you see them do that again this year with either Jensen or Ah Yat."

You're literally the only person on this board who doesn't think the hit was intentional. Not to mention that there was also the Pam State incident, Troy Taylor blowing up at the refs in 21 and nearly getting ejected, and in 23 the scuffle they started on our field where their players were running off their sideline and all the way over onto our sideline to get involved in the scuffle. They have a history of not exactly being the most high class program out there.

 

[HelenaHandBasket]

You're literally the only person on this board who doesn't think the hit was intentional. Not to mention that there was also the Pam State incident, Troy Taylor blowing up at the refs in 21 and nearly getting ejected, and in 23 the scuffle they started on our field where their players were running off their sideline and all the way over onto our sideline to get involved in the scuffle. They have a history of not exactly being the most high class program out there.

 

[Griz til I die]

Not sure how that makes me soft when I'm just pointing out the facts. All those things happened.

 

[HelenaHandBasket]

Not sure how that makes me soft when I'm just pointing out the facts. All those things happened.

You mean the presumption of intentional?

 

[alabamagrizzly]

Not sure how that makes me soft when I'm just pointing out the facts. All those things happened.

The seceret is out of the basket. HHB feels bad for Sac and he wants you to quit being mean to them.

 

[HelenaHandBasket]

The seceret is out of the basket. HHB feels bad for Sac and he wants you to quit being mean to them.

Yep, that's it. I can say with 95% confidence it wasn't an intentional hit. Just as valid, ya know, since I can ASSUME intent also.

 

[PTGrizzly]

Great thread @uofmman1122

Thanks for doing it again.