Importance of Pro Days

[alabamagrizzly]

So the importance of Pro Days have been in question here lately on eGriz and most have said Pro Days are helpful and an overall enjoyable experience. I decided to take a quick look at Pro Days and how it’s helped FCS players get drafted. After checking some numbers, I believe it has actually had the opposite effect.

The NFL dropped to a 7 round draft starting in ‘94. As far as I can find by several attempts at rewording my google search for the beginning of Pro Days, it appears about 2001 is when they first started popping up. From ‘94 through ‘00, the FCS averaged 26 picks a year with 28 in ‘00. In ‘01, the supposed first year of Pro Days, the FCS had 20 selections. From ‘02-‘25, the FCS has averaged 16 picks a year. On top of that, while never going below 20 in the 8 year stretch of pre Pro Day, they only topped 20 4 times in the next 24 years since. Granted some of these numbers have been skewed due to transferring but any draftees that played at least 2 years at their FCS school and no more than one year at their FBS school were counted as FCS draftees.

My belief for this is before Pro Days, scouts didn’t always have all the measurables on FCS players and had to be more willing to take chances on guys. Nowadays scouts know exactly what their getting from every prospect, thanks to Pro Days, and some athletes that a scout may have taken a shot at before, now won’t get that opportunity.

 

[ElrodGrizzly]

What is missed by some in the discussion is that NFL GMs and coaches are very risk averse in terms of keeping their jobs. Bill Simmons wrote convincingingly around 20 years ago that while things like hand size may not actually matter to the ability to play football, they give the GM and Coach a rationale for their draft picks when their job is on the line. "Sure, Player X didn't work out, but based on his speed and the size of his hands, we had every reason to believe that he fits the profile of a good NFL player." Like it or not, those are high paying GM jobs that people rarely get a second chance at. Maintaining job security is important to them.

Simply put, if a player avoids the combine and Pro Days it would first signal a major red flag to NFL teams that something is being hidden. Is the guy not as fast as we think? Is he hurt? Secondly, the results of that combine provide ways to justify the pick. Is a guy who runs a 4.42 in a straight line 40 a better football player who runs a 4.52? No, of course not. But showing you can run that 4.4 40 allows teams to feel safer picking you. These guys are running organizations with budgets in the 9 figures each year, they aren't going to just take a kid based on "feeling" or "an agent sent me a highlight tape that I liked." They have a job, and evaluating Pro Days is a part of that job.

For a real world example of this, Tyreek Hill didn't even get a combine invitation. He showed up to his Pro Day and ran a 4.29, and after that his coach said that 20 teams were interested in him.

This is a good discussion that talks about the metrics being valuable and mattering --

The Combine Actually Matters, Part Two

by Bill Lotter Yesterday I made a bunch of claims about the NFL Combine. Now it’s time to back it up. For quantifying performance, I explained why I will be using the 3 Year Approximate Value (3Y…

harvardsportsanalysis.org

The Predictive Ability of the Physical Skills Used at the NFL Combine to Predict Draft Status

Authors: Raymond Tucker 1, Chang Lee 2, Willie J. Black3 1 College of Education and Health Professions, University of Houston at Victoria, Victoria, TX, USA2 College of Education and Health Professions, University of Houston at Victoria, Victoria, TX, USA3 College of Education and Health...

thesportjournal.org

" Yet, coaches and scouts have used the test results from the NFL Combine to assess players’ physical abilities and skills as a determining factor of their success at the professional level. McGee and Burkett (8) state that the NFL Combine can be used to accurately predict the draft status of running backs, wide receivers, and defensive backs. The study by McGee and Burkett (8) supports the study by Kuzmits and Adams (6) that shows the 40-yard dash, 10-yard and 20-yard timed increments are highly correlated with running back performance in the NFL and should be used going forward when drafting running backs. However, a later study by Robbins (9) concluded that draft success is not significantly correlated with the results of the NFL Combine’s physical test battery, normalized or not. "

We KNOW that combine results are not direct predicters of future performance, but clearly people running teams in the NFL maintain the importance of this.

 

[griz98]

So the importance of Pro Days have been in question here lately on eGriz and most have said Pro Days are helpful and an overall enjoyable experience. I decided to take a quick look at Pro Days and how it’s helped FCS players get drafted. After checking some numbers, I believe it has actually had the opposite effect.

The NFL dropped to a 7 round draft starting in ‘94. As far as I can find by several attempts at rewording my google search for the beginning of Pro Days, it appears about 2001 is when they first started popping up. From ‘94 through ‘00, the FCS averaged 26 picks a year with 28 in ‘00. In ‘01, the supposed first year of Pro Days, the FCS had 20 selections. From ‘02-‘25, the FCS has averaged 16 picks a year. On top of that, while never going below 20 in the 8 year stretch of pre Pro Day, they only topped 20 4 times in the next 24 years since. Granted some of these numbers have been skewed due to transferring but any draftees that played at least 2 years at their FCS school and no more than one year at their FBS school were counted as FCS draftees.

My belief for this is before Pro Days, scouts didn’t always have all the measurables on FCS players and had to be more willing to take chances on guys. Nowadays scouts know exactly what their getting from every prospect, thanks to Pro Days, and some athletes that a scout may have taken a shot at before, now won’t get that opportunity.

Just curious, do you think that the movement of several FCS schools (App State, McNeese, Ga Southern, etc. had an effect on the numbers?

 

[alabamagrizzly]

Just curious, do you think that the movement of several FCS schools (App State, McNeese, Ga Southern, etc. had an effect on the numbers?

Definitely another variable among many to consider but you’re right, bigger than most. I’m definitely not saying this is the main cause of the decline but just thought the nearly direct correlation was intresting.

 

[oldngrizzly]

The combine is not pro days. It is completely separate and using it as part of an argument for pro days is simply not relevant. I see no evidence that FCS pro days caused a draft pick to occur, whether it was CFL or NFL.

 

[mthoopsfan]

The combine is not pro days. It is completely separate and using it as part of an argument for pro days is simply not relevant. I see no evidence that FCS pro days caused a draft pick to occur, whether it was CFL or NFL.

And you have no clue about this subject. Pro Days are similar to the Combine, and are the only similar thing that players not invited to the Combine have. Pro Days are quite valuable.

 

[alabamagrizzly]

The combine is not pro days. It is completely separate and using it as part of an argument for pro days is simply not relevant. I see no evidence that FCS pro days caused a draft pick to occur, whether it was CFL or NFL.

 

[oldngrizzly]

And you have no clue about this subject. Pro Days are similar to the Combine, and are the only similar thing that players not invited to the Combine have. Pro Days are quite valuable.

I think it's the opposite and you are the one with no clue. You are living in your own fantasy world and cannot except the truth.

 

[Wolf777]

So, the NFL is a multi-billion dollar industry. If these pro days had no merit or purpose for the NFL, teams wouldn’t be sending paid scouts or coaches to them. There wouldn’t be standardized metrics across all pro days and they wouldn’t be sanctioned by the NFL or under their auspices. However they are, and teams do look at metrics and when they are unexpected, good or bad, players rise and fall in the draft. When talent evaluators miss the mark they lose their jobs and when they hit and find a gem at a value, franchises thrive and dynasties are born. So much is on the line that it’s not just about going through the motions.

 

[garizzalies]

The combine is not pro days. It is completely separate and using it as part of an argument for pro days is simply not relevant. I see no evidence that FCS pro days caused a draft pick to occur, whether it was CFL or NFL.

You’ve had some extremely stupid takes during your egriz tenure (basically every post you make is dumb—remember when you said UM should schedule an NAIA team every year?), but this nonsense about FCS pro days is getting ridiculously out of hand.

You are essentially saying there is no evidence that FCS pro days result in draft picks even though nobody agrees with you, almost every school has them, almost every NFL teams sends scouts to them, and there have been countless guys who get drafted from the FCS following their pro day. Meanwhile, the irony is you got nothing—there is no evidence whatsoever to support your cockamamie comments.

The funny part is I don’t think you even realize how dumb you sound.

 

[5280Griz]

Tommy Mellott would be using his financial engineering degree instead of football if he doesn’t run under 4.4 40 at the bub pro day.

 

[mthoopsfan]

I think it's the opposite and you are the one with no clue. You are living in your own fantasy world and cannot except the truth.

Nope, you don't have a clue. Almost all of your posts are completely wrong. I don't even understand how you can be so consistently wrong.

 

[406football]

Nope, you don't have a clue. Almost all of your posts are completely wrong. I don't even understand how you can be so consistently wrong.

He's bored... Look at all the responses he gets from trying to be the "Skip Bayless" of the forum.

 

[alabamagrizzly]

I’m really beginning to think old is purposely being dumb to try to irritate eGrizzers. It’s gotta be for fun for him. No way someone honestly has a bad take on almost every topic on here.

 

[ElrodGrizzly]

I’m really beginning to think old is purposely being dumb to try to irritate eGrizzers. It’s gotta be for fun for him. No way someone honestly has a bad take on almost every topic on here.

Its that. He is definitely trolling intentionally. I suspect it is secretly CDA. You have to be pretty witty to seem that dumb.

 

[uofmman1122]

Its that. He is definitely trolling intentionally. I suspect it is secretly CDA. You have to be pretty witty to seem that dumb.

There's no way CDA would say some of the cruel and shitty things this asshole has said as a joke to troll people. He's maintained his belief that Cliff is lying about his dead family members. That's not artful trolling, that's being a piece of human garbage, and everyone should just put him on ignore until he leaves on his own. Like I've said before, the Griz fandom would be much better if he wasn't in it.

 

[ElrodGrizzly]

There's no way CDA would say some of the cruel and shitty things this asshole has said as a joke to troll people. He's maintained his belief that Cliff is lying about his dead family members. That's not artful trolling, that's being a piece of human garbage, and everyone should just put him on ignore until he leaves on his own.

Jesus. I didn't realize he had said that, somehow I missed it. I'm assuming he said that while I had him on ignore.

I was actually just kidding about CDA, but you're right that he has way too much decency and class to say something like that.

 

[HelenaHandBasket]

Its that. He is definitely trolling intentionally. I suspect it is secretly CDA. You have to be pretty witty to seem that dumb.

Sometimes dumb is just dumb.

 

[CDAGRIZ]

Jesus. I didn't realize he had said that, somehow I missed it. I'm assuming he said that while I had him on ignore.

I was actually just kidding about CDA, but you're right that he has way too much decency and class to say something like that.

Thanks, fellas. It’s definitely not me.

 

[ElrodGrizzly]

Thanks, fellas. It’s definitely not me.

Sorry you caught a stray there, lol. I'll leave the humor to the Egriz experts.