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Bracketology

Reviewed the Conference RPI's as of today. The BSC is presently ranked 19 by CBSsports.com. That is actually a few points higher than last year, but not enough, apparently, to get the BSC more than 1 bid!

What this suggests to me is that the Griz can only afford 1 or maybe 2 losses the rest of the way to avoid a 15 or 16 seed and two is iffy.

Bottom line is that in order to assure a seed higher than 15 the Griz will need to win the conference with only one loss, and win the conference tournament outright and convincingly!
 
Gaeilge1 said:
Reviewed the Conference RPI's as of today. The BSC is presently ranked 19 by CBSsports.com. That is actually a few points higher than last year, but not enough, apparently, to get the BSC more than 1 bid!

What this suggests to me is that the Griz can only afford 1 or maybe 2 losses the rest of the way to avoid a 15 or 16 seed and two is iffy.

Bottom line is that in order to assure a seed higher than 15 the Griz will need to win the conference with only one loss, and win the conference tournament outright and convincingly!
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'Bout the size of it :?
 
No way will this Griz team by a 16 seed unless the bottom drops out. I predict no worse than a 14, even with 2 to 3 conference losses.
 
EverettGriz said:
No way will this Griz team by a 16 seed unless the bottom drops out. I predict no worse than a 14, even with 2 to 3 conference losses.
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Just checked, and realized I may have been too "harsh" -- requiring too many wins. The numbers do actually support your view. But keep in mind that the Griz pretty much have to win the conference tournament to even worry about a seed. (No conference below about #15 RPI-BPI has gotten an at-large bid in at least the last five years, and I do not see that changing.)

But when (if), the Griz do that -- even with 2 or 3 conference losses -- they will have about 25 wins coming out of the conference tournament. Last year, teams from weak RPI-BPI conferences that had 24-26 wins ... were seeded 13,13,13, and 14.
 
That low conference RPI will play a significant part in potential seedings, as will overall strength of schedule, individual RPI and how a team is playing at the end of the season.
Losing 3 games at this stage would give the Griz a 22-8 overall record. Given the relatively weak conference rating, I just don't see the Griz getting a 14 seed. 2 losses maybe, but not 3.
 
I did forget to add in the potential tournament games. Griz could end up with 24-25 wins. I think it would still be a long shot to get a 14. But I will say there is a lot of ball to be played and anything can happen.
 
It will be very difficult to go undefeated or only lose one game in conference. Normally I would give them no chance to do that, but one thing I like about this team is they have found multiple different ways to win. That is the sign of a mentally tough, good team and I think at this point we are the best team in the conference. If we hustle and keep the desire where it has been I think we can do something truly unique. Sometimes it doesnt seem like it but each game is a single effort independent of previous and subsequent games. This team can find a way to win each game. If MO or Rorie or Akoh had to score 20+ every game we would absolutely lose several games. That just cant be consistently attained. However when the some of the guys offense hasnt been there for them their defense has and someone else has picked up the slack. Regardless it will be fun to watch.
 
The bsc has rarely been a 16, and while 15 seeds are more common, they have generally gone to teams who did not win the regular season title, and 12-14 seeds are just as likely as 15 or 16s. Since 2000, here are the number of bsc seeds:

16- three times
15- seven times
14- one time
13- five times
12- three times

The GRIZ have had these seeds during that same period:

16- one time (recall they entered that conference tournament as the 4th seed)
15- one time
14- one time
13- two times
12- two times

I would argue most of the teams with 14 seeds or better did not have the record or RPI this GRIZ team will have. Couple that with the fact that there are ALWAYS upsets in one-bid conference tournaments, and I would be absolutely STUNNED if the GRIZ finish with even 3 conference losses and get anything less than a 14 seed.
 
Akoh and Kryslovic will be eaten alive by any legit top 25 team. What does it matter who we play, IF we get in the tourney? It's a huge league (12 teams), and the tourney is at a neutral site, so the Griz are always gonna be long-shots to get the chance to get smoked by a team with a legit D-1 Center and PF even if we get the #1 seed. You guys are all dreaming. Just enjoy this team, which is fun to watch, but don't be stupid. Kryslovic will be THE worst starter of any NCAA team IF we make the tourney.
 
Zirg said:
Akoh and Kryslovic will be eaten alive by any legit top 25 team. What does it matter who we play, IF we get in the tourney? It's a huge league (12 teams), and the tourney is at a neutral site, so the Griz are always gonna be long-shots to get the chance to get smoked by a team with a legit D-1 Center and PF even if we get the #1 seed. You guys are all dreaming. Just enjoy this team, which is fun to watch, but don't be stupid. Kryslovic will be THE worst starter of any NCAA team IF we make the tourney.
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Too bad guard play generally rules at the NCAA. Good guard combos seem to pull off the upsets, not the team with a "legit D-1 Center and PF".
 
Zirg said:
Akoh and Kryslovic will be eaten alive by any legit top 25 team. What does it matter who we play, IF we get in the tourney? It's a huge league (12 teams), and the tourney is at a neutral site, so the Griz are always gonna be long-shots to get the chance to get smoked by a team with a legit D-1 Center and PF even if we get the #1 seed. You guys are all dreaming. Just enjoy this team, which is fun to watch, but don't be stupid. Kryslovic will be THE worst starter of any NCAA team IF we make the tourney.
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Pretty harsh on Kryslovic. I have been impressed how he has settled into his role on this team. As the lone senior he could be forcing the action trying to make something happen or be upset with his role on this team, instead he goes out and works on the boards and plays good D, and gets second chance points.
His defense is underrated and I would guess a leader on this team.
I also agree with the poster who said guard play is huge in Big Dance!
 
Mavman said:
Zirg said:
Akoh and Kryslovic will be eaten alive by any legit top 25 team. What does it matter who we play, IF we get in the tourney? It's a huge league (12 teams), and the tourney is at a neutral site, so the Griz are always gonna be long-shots to get the chance to get smoked by a team with a legit D-1 Center and PF even if we get the #1 seed. You guys are all dreaming. Just enjoy this team, which is fun to watch, but don't be stupid. Kryslovic will be THE worst starter of any NCAA team IF we make the tourney.
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Pretty harsh on Kryslovic. I have been impressed how he has settled into his role on this team. As the lone senior he could be forcing the action trying to make something happen or be upset with his role on this team, instead he goes out and works on the boards and plays good D, and gets second chance points.
His defense is underrated and I would guess a leader on this team.
I also agree with the poster who said guard play is huge in Big Dance!
Click to expand...

Agree with your assessment of Kryslovic.
 
AZDoc said:
Zirg said:
Akoh and Kryslovic will be eaten alive by any legit top 25 team. What does it matter who we play, IF we get in the tourney? It's a huge league (12 teams), and the tourney is at a neutral site, so the Griz are always gonna be long-shots to get the chance to get smoked by a team with a legit D-1 Center and PF even if we get the #1 seed. You guys are all dreaming. Just enjoy this team, which is fun to watch, but don't be stupid. Kryslovic will be THE worst starter of any NCAA team IF we make the tourney.
Click to expand...
Too bad guard play generally rules at the NCAA. Good guard combos seem to pull off the upsets, not the team with a "legit D-1 Center and PF".
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Granted, many top teams do have “a legit D-I Center and PF.” But you’d perhaps be surprised at how many ranked and “name” teams don’t even list a Center on their rosters. Just for fun, I went looking for a couple of examples. Then I found so many I kept looking. Here’s what I found just going down the current AP Top-25:
West Virginia (ranked #7): Tallest starter is 6-8 (listed as a forward). They have a 6-10 guy on their roster, but he only plays 5-6 minutes per game. They also have a 6-11 guy, but he plays maybe a minute per game.
Cincinnati (#9): Tallest starter is 6-9, then they drop to 6-8. They start three guards. Their one big man (6-11) plays maybe 10-15 minutes.
Ohio State (#13): Tallest starter is 6-9, then they drop to 6-7. They have one other “big” man (also 6-9), but he plays less than 5 minutes.
Wichita State (#17): Their tallest starter is listed as a Center, but he’s only 6-8. Tallest forward is 6-7. They have a 6-10 guy, but he only gets 10-12 minutes per game. Their 7-footer plays maybe 1 or 2 minutes per game.
Clemson (#18): Tallest starter is 6-9, then drop to 6-8. They start three guards. They have another 6-9 guy (no one taller), but he only gets 10-15 minutes PT.
Auburn (#19): Tallest starter is 6-7 and they start three guards. Their one 6-11 guy seems to get less than a minute of PT.
Florida (#20): Tallest starter is 6-9 and they start three guards. They have two 6-11 guys on their roster. One gets 3-4 minutes per game, the other none (as far as I can tell).
Arizona State (#21): Tallest starter is 6-8 and they start three guards. They use their one big man (6-10) about 15 minutes per game.

That’s just among the currently ranked teams. I’m sure there are many more among the good, but not ranked teams
 
I've watched enough college hoops to see that trend, but would've never guessed what you pulled out. What that tells me is that any BSC team with legit guard play and shooting well can upset in the first round.
 
Zirg said:
Kryslovic will be THE worst starter of any NCAA team IF we make the tourney.
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That’s just a stupid fucking statement. There will be a handful of teams that will surprise and win their conference tourneys that will have NO business being in the tournament...Kryslovic may not be Akoh level, but he’s FAR from the worst starter, no matter WHAT teams are in the tournament.
 
A "Just for fun" post on Erik Haslam's Haslametrics site this morning...

[tweet]https://twitter.com/haslametrics/status/957151918593372160[/tweet]
 
Zirg said:
Akoh and Kryslovic will be eaten alive by any legit top 25 team. What does it matter who we play, IF we get in the tourney? It's a huge league (12 teams), and the tourney is at a neutral site, so the Griz are always gonna be long-shots to get the chance to get smoked by a team with a legit D-1 Center and PF even if we get the #1 seed. You guys are all dreaming. Just enjoy this team, which is fun to watch, but don't be stupid. Kryslovic will be THE worst starter of any NCAA team IF we make the tourney.
Click to expand...

So top 25 would roughly include 1-6 seeds in the tourney. I would say you are wrong. Are there teams with big men that will dominate? Absolutely but Akoh is better than you are giving him credit for. I know what you are saying about Krislovic but he is also better than you are giving him credit for. Krislovic is a good defender. A future NBA big man will be more than Krislovic can handle and he will be in foul trouble early but most teams dont have that type of guy. I think we will be okay against most teams. Am I saying we will beat a top 6 seed? No but I dont think every top 6 seed makes us look silly either ala Syracuse vs us several years ago.
 
Sad part is ... the Griz keeping winning, but the Big Sky is so weak, their RPI rank gets worse. They've dropped from #105 a week or so ago, to now be ranked #116. :wtf:
 
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