Cat week is once again upon us and just like the last two times in his Griz coaching career Coach Stitt & his team come into it as a must-win game if they want to continue into the post-season. In 2015 the Griz won big in Bozeman, and in 2016 the cats won in a grind-out game having just completed only a few passes. For MSU this is absolutely their last game of the year, for the Griz, a win should put them into the playoffs. Much like last years cat team I don’t think the overall record, having just 4 wins, really indicates the type of team they are. Pulling up their box scores, 7 of their 10 games played this season have been to ranked teams and I think every team except UND remains still ranked (6 in the FCS top 25, 1 in the FBS top 25). Against those teams the cats have just 1 win to show for it (UND) and were scoring on average of 23 points and allowing 27. A few real close losses.
Bozeman State Bobcats, 4-6
0-31 loss @ Washington State: Tough sledding for the cats, Wazzu put up 511 yards wile the cats had just under 150 total. I think Wazzu lead in just about every imaginable positive category on offense and defense.
27-31 loss vs South Dakota State: SDSU was never behind in this game and enjoyed both a 17-0 and 24-7 lead, but MSU held tough and got the score to within 3 (24-21) as the 3rd quarter ended. Into the 4th SDSU scored with under 5:00 to go to get it to 31-21, but MSU came back and scored, but had the PAT blocked to make it 31-27. MSU attempted an onsides but had a penalty that gave SDSU the ball, however they got the ball back with just 50 seconds left. They got to their own 30 and had to go for the crazy lateral attempt, which didn’t work. Both offenses had some big numbers. SDSU ran for 160 and passed for 270, while MSU ran for 180 and passed for 310. SDSU held onto the ball for over 33:00 TOP and I see that MSU not only had a PAT blocked but missed two fieldgoals.
49-21 win @ North Dakota: UND was in free-fall already and the cats were hungry for a win. Powered by almost 350 rushing yards and nearly 40:00 of TOP the cats grabbed an early lead and held UND at bay throughout the rest of the way.
17 – 25 loss vs Weber: This was a defensive slug fest with a few big plays that wound up determining the game. The cats looked like they were going to compete in the 1st half with their first three drives picking up good yards… the trouble was they only had 3 points to show for it and two missed fieldgoals as well. Meanwhile Weber was making their fieldgoals to build up a 9-3 lead. Then as the half was ending a blown coverage lead to a 64 yard TD pass for the cats and they took a 10-9 lead into the half. Weber continued to do their thing though and in the 3rd scored two TDs (with one missed PAT to get up to 22 points. The cats answered midway through the 4th with a TD getting to 22-17, but Weber got the ball back, slowly marched down and added 3 points. MSU had a chance to go attempt to tie it with about 2:30 left but a holding penalty killed a would-be long Murray run and the cats wound up turning the ball over on downs. Weber did some extreme clock control, over 40:00 of TOP, 22 of which came in the 2nd half. MSU had just 4 possessions the whole 2nd half. Weber ran for 160, passed for 206. Meanwhile the cats ran for 215 and passed for 150.
30-22 win @ Portland State: Such a strange box score, PSU a rushing team had over 300 passing, while the cats ground game really hit it’s stride with 403 rushing compared to just 9 yards passing. MSU gradually pulled away in this game and their defense bent a little but didn’t break much. They forced a fumble and two turnovers on downs.
19-31 loss @ Eastern Washington: EWU looked like they were going to walk away with an easier win, up 24-7 but two cat TDs (with two failed 2-point conversion attempts) had the cats suddenly within 5 halfway through the 4th. EWU put together a long scoring drive to set the final score and then on the next series Chris Murray was picked off to seal any real hopes of a comeback. MSU really hurt themselves with turnovers, 3 lost fumbles and 1 INT. 2 of the 3 fumbles were in the EWU red zone and the other was just outside of it on the EWU 22. EWU actually had more success running, 275 on the ground to just 225 passing.
27-24 win vs Northern Colorado: It was UNC’s homecoming and they got out to an early lead, holding a 21-7 lead at the half. However MSU just kept chipping away and took advantage of UNC errors and got back into the game. In the 2nd half MSU scored the next 17 points to get to a 24-21 lead midway through the 4th quarter. UNC tied it up with a fieldgoal and after an MSU 3 and out (with a flat out dropped would-be interception) UNC went down the field to attempt to win the game. They missed a wide open wheel-route TD pass and then mid-held a short fieldgoal to come away with no points. MSU went down the field, again narrowly avoiding another pick, and kicked a fieldgoal as time expired to win. UNC had just 260 yards to MSU’s 520. The cats threw two picks, one of which lead to a TD, but really got their yards in the 2nd half with almost 350 of their total yards coming on 5 drives.
28-14 win vs Idaho State: Both teams were pretty close in yardage, ISU had almost 400 while MSU had about 420. Both pretty balanced as well with each nearly rushing for 200. ISU’s issue was turnovers on downs it would seem. 3 of them, one on the MSU 29, another on the MSU 25, and another on the MSU 4. Plus they tossed 2 picks as well.
14-16 loss vs Kennesaw State: Triple option Kennesaw had 350 rushing yards to just 55 passing (4 completions) while MSU had 163 rushing and 110 passing. The game featured a few long drives by both teams as well as a handful of drives that went nowhere for either squad. MSU in the game was down 10-7 at the half but got a 14-10 lead after a passing TD midway through the 3rd. KSU from there really controlled the game though. MSU had just possessions after that, one ended in a turnover on downs at the KSU 29, another was 4 plays and a punt, and the final one ended with a pick. Meanwhile KSU used their offense to chew major amounts of clock (almost 40:00 TOP) and kick a few fieldgoals to get to a 16-14 lead. KSU’s game winning drive was 78 yards in 20 plays and took 10:13 off the clock. Wow. KSU was 10-21 on 3rd and 3-4 on 4th.
36-37 loss @ Northern Arizona: I could 8 lead changes in this game. I think many of us watched this game go down as it seemed neither teams defense was there to do much. MSU had 455 yards (300 rushing / 155 passing) while NAU had 550 yards (235 rushing / 315 passing). The game was a back and forth the whole time and MSU got to within 1 with just 32 seconds left, but opted to go for 2 and Murray was flushed by a pass rush and threw and incomplete pass. The cats attempted an onside kick that had to be reviewed but it was ruled that NAU recovered and the game ended.
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General Stats –
Passing yards per game Montana (304 for UM vs 152 for MSU)
Rushing yards per game Bobcats (242 rush ypg vs 153 rush ypg)
Total offense Montana (457 for the Griz vs 395 for MSU)
Passing yards allowed per game Bobcats (231 ypg allowed vs 268 ypg allowed)
Rushing yards allowed per game Montana (153 ypg allowed vs 173 ypg allowed)
Total defense Bozeman (403 ypg allowed vs 422 ypg allowed)
Tied up 3-3 each
Offense points scored Montana (36.2 vs 24.7)
Defense points allowed Bobcats (25.7 vs 28.8)
Turnover margin Montana – UM is -1 while MSU is -2
Fieldgoal % Montana – .86 for Montana / .40 for MSU
Punt Returns Montana (7.4 YPR vs 4.4 YPR)
Kick Returns Montana (17.3 for UM vs 16.8 for MSU)
T.O.P. Bobcats (28:03 for UM vs 28:55 for MSU)
Red Zone defense (touchdowns) Bobcats (UM 56% / MSU 51% )
Red Zone offense (touchdowns) Montana (scores 64% while MSU scores 56%)
3rd down offense Bobcats (converts 45% of the time and 41% for Montana)
3rd down defense Montana (UM 38% / MSU 50%)
Montana adds 7 while the Bobcats add 4 to bring the total to Montana 10 – Bobcats 7.
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Players to Watch:
#8 Chris Murray, QB: As a surprise to absolutely no one, Murray is THE GUY that makes the cat offense go. He’s their QB and their best rusher… but not only that, he’s got the highest amount of rushing yards in the whole conference, of all players! This season he’s got 1025 rushing yards and 9 rushing TDs. Add that in with his 1500 passing yards, 15 passing TDs and 9 INTs. Combining his passing and rushing he’s accountable for 250 yards per game of MSU’s offense, almost 64% of the team’s per game yards.
#23 Nick LaSane, RB: LaSane has only 6 games under his belt after being suspended for the first portion of the season, however in those 6 games he’s already moved up to 2nd best in rushing yards with 471 and had 2 TDs as well. LaSane is big dude, 220 pounds and has 1 catch… for 77 yards, this season.
#82 Mitch Herbert, WR: Herbert is the cats #1 WR, the 6-4 senior has the most catches (37), most yards (442), and most TDs (5).
#81 Jabarri Johnson, WR: Johnson trails Herbert in every category as the #2 receiver, also a big 6-4 guy, he’s got 427 yards and 4 TDs this season.
#15 Troy Andersen, RB: Andersen as I recall did more of the heavy lifting as a RB before the return of LaSane but he’s still got 451 yards and 3 rushing TDs this season… he’s also 4th on the team in receptions with 7 for 45 yards and 1 TD.
#85 Kevin Kassis, WR: Kassis has stats everywhere it seems. He’s the 3rd leading receiver with 260 yards and 2 TDs. He’s 1-3 passing with a passing TD. He’s got 38 rushing yards. And he’s the punt returner, 40 yards on 10 returns.
#49 Mac Bignell, LB: A 6-1, 215 pound linebacker and maybe one of the front runners for Big Sky defensive MVP. Bignell has some monster stats, 83 tackles, 12 TFLs, 2 sacks, 1 INT, and 1 forced fumble. He’s MSU’s Josh Buss, basically. In the backfield A LOT.
#10 Bryson McCabe, S: McCabe is the type of safety that Ty Gregorak just loves to have. He’s a hard hitter, 2nd on the team in tackles with 79, he’s also got 1 pick, and a team best 7 pass breakups.
#58 Josh Hill, LB: Hill has missed some time but has really made up for it, he’s played just 8 games but is 4th in total tackles, has 1.5 TFLs, and 1 forced fumble.
#18 Brayden Konkol, LB: Konkol is 3rd best on the team in tackles with 67 and actually leads the team with 2 interceptions.
#95 Derek Marks, DE: If I remember correctly MSU lost a few D-linemen in the spring/summer/fall but Marks has appeared to be a guy that’s really stepped up. 8.5 TFLs, 4 sacks, 1 fumble recovery to go with 42 tackles.
#92 Tucker Yates, DT: Yates is MSU’s run-stuffing D-lineman. He’s got 4.5 TFLs, 1 sack, has blocked 1 kick, and has 40 tackles.
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Keys to a Grizzly victory
1. Don’t let Murray go off. He did last year and he’s done it to plenty of teams this year. MSU will attach Montana’s aggressive blitz-heavy defense and if Murray gets through the pressure he’s going to have a lot of open space to run. Montana will have to spy him and keep him in check. Murray’s passing has improved since last season, but if you read their fan board it’s suggested he’s declined a bit over the season. He’s a guy that will make teams pay with his feet and can catch defenders leaving cover and throw over their heads. The Grizzly defense is going to have to be smart with him, and I honestly think they should back-off on the aggressive style they usually play.
2. Win on 3rd down. MSU’s a very good team when it comes to converting on 3rd down but oddly their defense really isn’t. Montana can really put this game in their favor if they’re the offense with the better 3rd down conversion rate on offense. Stats suggest the Griz offense should do that, but can the Grizzly defense step up and out perform their season averages? We’ll have to find out!
3. TDs in the red zone. I fully expect both teams are going to get some yards here and this could come down to who is more efficient when they get to within scoring range. Montana has a far more reliable kicking game, but being able to get 7 points instead of 3 on those RZ trips will continually force MSU to keep up which could turn to a be a challenge. No turnovers for the Griz in the RZ either… that’s becoming more and more of an issue as the season goes on.
4. Weather the storm early. We’ve seen enough of Stitt’s style of teams vs Choate/Gregorak’s style to know what we’re going to see early. MSU is going to be whipped into a frenzy while Montana is going to be focused and presumably more calm than the MSU players. There’s going to be a big early wave of emotion that MSU is going to play with which could lead to some early big plays or big scores for the cats. This happened at Weber and the Griz took a whole half to adjust, and by then they were too far down. If the Griz can manage that opening barrage and go stride for stride they could keep building while MSU could start to sputter out as the adrenaline runs down once the game wears on.
5. Control the line of scrimmage. The Griz need to keep Jensen from getting flustered by MSU’s defense and run the ball well. This will happen if the Grizzly O-line can keep up their building success and own the cats in the trench.
6. +2 in turnovers. Games with this type of hype and emotion usually lead to some errors. Hopefully it’s the cats that make more. For the Griz defense they’re going to probably have a chance or two at a pick, can’t drop those. On the other side MSU really hasn’t forced a lot of turnovers, however they’ll be gunning for the ball this week. Our young QB is going to have to play smart and not risk too many aggressive plays that could lead to an easy pick.
7. Play smart. Last year some costly personal fouls killed some momentum, lets try our damnedest to avoid those! Also this game suggests over-aggressive play, especially from the linebackers, could really burn the defense. Our LB corps is going to have to watch against over-pursuit in the name of trying to make a play, and not get out of their lanes. Finally, I know there’s some guys with a bit more free-reign to take some risks, JLM almost lost a punt return as an example last week. In a game this big they’ve got to be careful to not let these types of risks give MSU a huge momentum swing.
8. Don’t forget about the vertical routes. I’m going to guess that Semore is planning to keep 7 or 8 in the box a lot, meaning that the WRs are going to have single coverage a lot. MSU has backed off a bit on the trick plays… but if any game warrants some of that, it’s this one. A few well timed vertical routes could burn the Griz deep. We’ll need McKinley, Sanders, and Nash to be damn smart and stick like glue to their guys.
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The Griz are trending up, winning their last 2 and playing pretty good football, coming off their most complete game… albeit against a rather inferior UNC team. The Cats have now dropped 2 straight and are just playing for the sake of the rivalry. What worries me here is that we’re going to have a lot of young guys playing in their first brawl in some key positions, especially at QB. The Griz have won in Bozeman lot, and this game has some huge importance on it. It could mean the difference between the playoffs and staying home again. It could also mean the difference between who the head coach is next season too, as many posters have speculated that Stitt’s renewal could be hanging on this game and possibly a post-season birth.
I like this Griz team a lot and I like the way they’re playing. If they can avoid a Weber State-esque barrage early they can come away with a huge win in Bozeman. They’ve already seen some intense road games with fired up opponents in both Weber and ISU… so hopefully they’ll have learned and will keep growing from it. In yet another classic brawl I’ll say the Griz come away with tight win, 30-20.
GO GRIZ!!
