Finally a thread to talk football. I don't like smack talk, not my bag.
One thing I noticed is that last year's Griz team was nearly identical in rush defense, if not slightly better. We all know how well the Cats ran the ball last year so I won't mention the stats, but this year the Cats are the 10th best rushing team in the country, and when you look at YPC we are 6th, average 5.7 YPC, meaning we are better at running the ball than we were last year. Granted a further inspection shows that we've only faced 3 good rush defenses - Wazzu, Weber State, who held us to about 30 yards below our current season average, and Kennesaw State, where we only got 163 against the #12 rush defense in the county, but did rush above their current average of 96 yards per game. They killed us in TOP, but also held us to just 4.9 YPC. We ran just 51 plays.
The Cats have the 13th best 3rd down conversion % in the county as well, but it's all predicated on getting into 3rd and shorts. Montana is 69th in 3rd down defense but just 110th in first down defense. If the Cats do get into 3rd and shorts, that's a battle MSU is likely to win. Advantage Cats.
However, UM is 19th in first down offense. Choate said in the press conference, you gotta stop UM on first down. Bad news is MSU is 113th in first down defense. So likewise, advantage Griz.
Interesting stat, both MSU and UM give up 5.44 yards per play. The Griz defense has been on the field for 34 more plays all season, which is 3.4 per game.
It's going to come down to which team makes the most plays, which unfortunately the Cats just haven't done this year, hence why we keep losing close games. When we desperately need a first down, a stop, or a turnover, we just don't get it. In fact we seem more likely to get a stupid penalty that either kills a promising drive, or extends an opponents.