Robsnotes4u said:
Jaredkuehn said:
Robsnotes4u said:
Umm 31 points is relatively little scoring, and good defense?
I think both offenses have averaged over 40 the past couple seasons, so yes 31 - 17 would be RELATIVELY little scoring.
Point being, I think the spread is a bit of a stretch. Apparently the game day appearance is influencing the spread. Lots of stupid money being placed an ndsu blowout.
The bookies, Massey, and things like Versus are more based on math, stats, probable outcomes. Gameday isn't a factor.
I would say the biggest thing that brought this spread is.
1. NDSU going to ISU scoring 34 unanswered points
1a. NDSU winning by 20 on the ROAD at Iowa State
2. NDSU not being scored on in the second half this year
3. Iowa State beating Iowa
4. Iowa State only losing to #20 Kansas State by 4 points
5. UM being beaten by Wyoming
6. NDSU giving up 21 points in three games
7 UM giving up 20 to USD, bottom team of the MVC
If you take your emotions out of it,the conclusion is simple. Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts. Doesn't mean the Griz won't beat the spread. Doesn't mean the Griz will not win the game. It
I think the first half is close, like most NDSU games 7-10 point advantage for NDSU. The Bison increase the lead by 7-10 in the third. Play ball control in the 4th and win comfortably at 17 to 20 points. Not much different than your score.
Before everyone starts flaming and getting pissy. Take off your NDSU and UM glasses. Look at the points I listed. If you didn't have a dog in this fight, a football fan, but just looking to bet some money at what spread would you bet for the Griz?
The spread has moved from 25 to 22.5, does the action stop here because the bettors are even on both sides, or will they need to move the line to encourage more bets either way. The thing that amazes me the most is when people are upset because the spread opened at 25. If you are a fan of wagering, and you think the Griz are awesome, you should be happy, and go bet the farm on it.
I agree with much of what you just said, but I don't think those things justify a 25 point spread.
In 2013, in 15 games, NDSU gave up only 51 points in the 3d quarter and 13 points in the 4th quarter. That is very impressive.
My take. NSDU is obviously very very good and the clear favorite for multiple reasons, many of which you have stated. There is no reason to think NDSU will have a let down, but I note that NDSU seems to have an habit of having occasional games in which they are not dominant and the games are close. Witness Weber this year and NI and probably others last year. NDSU always manages to win, and that is the trait of a great and well-coached team. Some people have indicated that NDSU may be better than they were last year. While perhaps true, I am hoping that they are not quite as good as last year.
UM is not the type of team to come into the game thinking that they can't win. They have every expectation of winning. UM is a good team with good potential, but it's still hard to tell how good they will be, or not be, this year. A work in progress. Need continued development of the o-line. Need to find a place kicking game.
UM's defense is at least good, potentially very very good. Some think UM's d-line is the best in FCS. While 2 good tackles are hurt or no longer on the team, there is still good depth. The 2 d-ends and one tackle are all-american, or close to all-american, quality. One d-end is headed for the NFL, and currently leads the nation in sacks and is 2d in TFL, I think. Backers are all new starters but are improving weekly and have alot of speed. 2 converted safeties, one of whom ran a 10.51 in high school track in CA and had the 2d fastest time in CA that year. Secondary is much improved, and has hard-hitting safeties and fairly good tacklers at corner.
I assume NDSU is going to run the ball, using power, much like Wyo. did. Hard to stop. Wears teams down. Looks like NDSU has multiple good running backs. Play action pass is hard to deal with if the secondary is not disciplined. UM isn't really a power running team, but there are similarities in style. I'm hoping the Wyo. game will have given UM a good head start on dealing with NDSU's offense. UM isn't going to stop NDSU's offense, but I'm hoping for some stops at key times, some turnovers, and no or few big passing plays. Perhaps too much to wish for. In any event, I don't see NDSU's offense rolling over UM, at least earlier in the game.
Can UM's offense move the ball and score? Hope so, but UM will need reasonable play out of the o-line, a great day by the qb (who is fully capable of a great day), and big plays by the other big player-makers, Canada and Van at rb, and Jones, Henderson and also Van at receiver. UM has had no turnovers yet this year. Don't want to jinx them, but it would be nice to continue that streak. If NDSU shuts down UM's running game and puts frequent pressure on the qb, then UM is screwed.
UM has a very good punter, who needs to consistently boom the over 50 yarders. UM's punt coverage has been good so far this year. Hope it continues. UM's kicking for kickoffs should be able to put the ball in the end zone consistently in a dome.
I'm hoping that UM can play with NDSU and that it's a good game. Hoping UM can get some breaks. Hoping our big play guys can get into the open at times.
