Why did UM kick last FG?

[horribilisfan8184]

If you noticed on the winning drive the first and goal was a pass play that was well covered and a throw away for Gus. The play before was a slant to Hendu that was 2 yards short of scoring. Not so sure your probabilities are accurate. What seems more probable is Stitt is rewriting "the book" you and I and most of the coaching world subscribe to.

 

[signedbewildered]

Because it was 4th and 11. If they don't get it, they need a stop and a TD just to tie. If they get the 3, a stop and a TD won.

Doesn't matter that it was 4th and 11. If they score the TD then, they can kick extra point and win in OT, or go for 2. If they take FB and don't get stop or don't get TD later, then the game is over and they lost. No one can rely on NDSU making 2 stupid calls in a row, i.e. their passes, and 2 incompletes to stop the clock. I say, at that point of the game, the chances of getting the TD from the 11, are 50%. Based on UM being 6 for 14 for pick ups of 3d and long and 4th and long for the game, or 43%; and our outside and tall receivers were going to catch that ball for the win.

So if they don't get the TD, they are down 7. If they get a stop and get the ball back they can either a) tie it and try their hand at OT or b) go for a high risk 2 point conversion to win. I'll take 3 points and a chance to win with that same TD every time. 4th and 1, I'd feel different.

So, you'd just give up immediate chance of scoring a TD (I say about 50%; some would say a bit less), and take the risk of not getting the ball back in time? Why would you throw away that opportunity to get an immediate TD? Looks like bad odds to me. Worked out this time, tho.

50% on that one play? You sure have a lot of confidence in this team....and this coach. Oh wait...

 

[fanofzoo]

Why did we kick that last FG?


BECAUSE WE CAN

 

[IdaGriz01]

Why did we kick that last FG?

BECAUSE WE CAN

Good Call! :thumb:

 

[dupuyer griz]

Is this thread still a thing?

 

[Buttegrizzle]

3 things:
1) It was a perfect day with field goal kicking, which was a bit of a question mark after scrimmages.
2) Stitt know more than... you do.
3) end thread/

 

[Griz Man]

by Grisly Fan » Mon Aug 31, 2015 7:59 am

It is a simple fact that all decisions come with some kind of risk and any decision is only as good as it turns out to be. Plenty of battles have been lost by playing the odds. Feel free to second guess all you want but Stitt's decisions worked out. They may not always but that is why he makes the big bucks. For me, not playing it safe is a breath of fresh air

:thumb:

PR keeps saying that NDSU handed us the game with their bad play calling, but do you think maybe #StittHappening had anything to do with the NDSU staff being a little fuzzy? I do, and it brings a big grin to my face.

 

[MsMaroon]

I've had it with this thread.

AoD

 

[George Ferguson]

For a minute, I was scratching my head on the FG. However, after how it ended, I forgot why I was scratching my head in the first place. And Stitt pretty much put it to rest in the presser. He looked everyone in the eye on two questions: 1. "Do you ever second guess some of your unorthodox calls?" Stitt "No". 2. Griz fans aren't used to some of these things in today's game? Stitt: "Well, they're gonna have to get used to them". I absolutely LOVED both those answers.

 

[Griz Man]

by PlayerRep » Mon Aug 31, 2015 6:30 am

Haven't you noticed that most of the more knowledgeable football fans have not participated in the thread? My guess is that there is a reason for that. Several who have weighed in have agreed with me.

The nation is littered with knowledgeable football fans, and even knowledgeable coaches, some employed, some not. Most all know the same conventional stuff that gets parroted back and forth between them. I wouldn't trade Bob Stitt for any on them, and I bet very, very few of them produce a victory over NDSU, or even keep us in the ball game, like Coach Stitt did.

 

[AZGrizFan]

by Grisly Fan » Mon Aug 31, 2015 7:59 am

It is a simple fact that all decisions come with some kind of risk and any decision is only as good as it turns out to be. Plenty of battles have been lost by playing the odds. Feel free to second guess all you want but Stitt's decisions worked out. They may not always but that is why he makes the big bucks. For me, not playing it safe is a breath of fresh air

:thumb:

PR keeps saying that NDSU handed us the game with their bad play calling, but do you think maybe #StittHappening had anything to do with the NDSU staff being a little fuzzy? I do, and it brings a big grin to my face.

Oh, you could see it on their coach's face. Plain as day. Like he really did NOT know what was coming next...

 

[tgreseth]

I've had it with this thread. AoD

You may be losing your touch!

 

[statler & waldorf]

It is said that driving a wooden stake through the heart of a sleeping vampire is the only way to kill it. Evidently, eGriz threads are much tougher than vampires.

 

[IHateRobPhenicie]

Because it was 4th and 11. If they don't get it, they need a stop and a TD just to tie. If they get the 3, a stop and a TD won.

Doesn't matter that it was 4th and 11. If they score the TD then, they can kick extra point and win in OT, or go for 2. If they take FB and don't get stop or don't get TD later, then the game is over and they lost. No one can rely on NDSU making 2 stupid calls in a row, i.e. their passes, and 2 incompletes to stop the clock. I say, at that point of the game, the chances of getting the TD from the 11, are 50%. Based on UM being 6 for 14 for pick ups of 3d and long and 4th and long for the game, or 43%; and our outside and tall receivers were going to catch that ball for the win.

So if they don't get the TD, they are down 7. If they get a stop and get the ball back they can either a) tie it and try their hand at OT or b) go for a high risk 2 point conversion to win. I'll take 3 points and a chance to win with that same TD every time. 4th and 1, I'd feel different.

So, you'd just give up immediate chance of scoring a TD (I say about 50%; some would say a bit less), and take the risk of not getting the ball back in time? Why would you throw away that opportunity to get an immediate TD? Looks like bad odds to me. Worked out this time, tho.

Every time. Because if you don't score, you still have to stop and get the ball back to even have a chance to TIE. Either way, NDSU was getting the ball back with 2 plus minutes left on the clock. Take the points, then, when you stop them you can win, not just tie. What is so hard to understand about that?

 

[MsMaroon]

I've had it with this thread. AoD

You may be losing your touch!

Ya think?? The only thing worse on this board than being known as a thread killer is being ignored. Slighted. Overlooked. Disregarded. Unheard. Taken for granted. Only tolerated because of my sandwiches . . .

IF I CAN'T KILL THREADS, WHAT GOOD AM I????

Later boys.

 

[Sportin' Life]

Wow, this thread is full of stupid, especially about the fifty-fifty shot at scoring. At that point in the game the Griz had 12 downs at the 11 yard or closer, and they scored touchdowns on one of them. That is a 8.33% chance of scoring a TD, except that is probably high because most of those chances came from much closer to the end zone where a run is more likely to score. Just on that drive the Griz missed four times from inside the eleven, including a shot from the 11.

At the end of the game, the Griz showed that they could score again from the red zone, but took four tries. So from the 11 or closer the Griz scored touchdowns at a rate of 12.5%. Even if we included those (at the time unknowable) odds, it was nowhere close to 50%. Stitt made the right call to keep the momentum.

 

[MsMaroon]

Wow, this thread is full of stupid, especially about the fifty-fifty shot at scoring. At that point in the game the Griz had 12 downs at the 11 yard or closer, and they scored touchdowns on one of them. That is a 8.33% chance of scoring a TD, except that is probably high because most of those chances came from much closer to the end zone where a run is more likely to score. Just on that drive the Griz missed four times from inside the ten, including a shot from the 11.

At the end of the game, the Griz showed that they could score again from the red zone, but took four tries. So from the 11 or closer the Griz scored touchdowns at a rate of 12.5%. Even if we included those (at the time unknowable) odds, it was nowhere close to 50%. Stitt made the right call to keep the momentum.

See what I mean? :thumb:

 

[62GRIZ]

Most "ex-players" and conventional football minds will NOT agree with many Bob Stitt decisions. THAT is what makes him "Bob Stitt!" And, we're damned lucky he is a GRIZ!

 

[montanaguy]

If you loved the book Money Ball, by Michael Lewis, like I did, you may see a similarity between guys like Stitt and Billy Bean of the A's. We may be seeing a coach, like Bean, who thinks past conventional wisdom. Bean turned the conventional 'crowd think' of scouts, coaches and statisticians on its head. Obviously some will embrace it, others will debate about it for 8 pages on a fan-board.

 

[UofMGrizFan]

Most "ex-players" and conventional football minds will NOT agree with many Bob Stitt decisions. THAT is what makes him "Bob Stitt!" And, we're damned lucky he is a GRIZ!

I'll drink to that!!!! :beer: