Why did UM kick last FG?

[PlayerRep]

Stitt has said in past interviews that red zone plays keep him up at night, and everyone agrees and knows that it gets congested down there (look how the Grizz D stonewalled a very talented NDSU team in the red zone last year). Stitt believes that his offense has long-strike capability from anywhere on the field, and we have reason to believe him.

So I think his gut told him to take the field goal (a pretty sure thing), rely on a defensive stop (pretty good odds since the D was playing very well), and then let his quick tempo offense run in the open field. In the end it came down to a goal line situation, and we thankfully prevailed, but Gustafson and Henderson did get the ball all the way down to the 1, so it almost worked out the way that Stitt had probably envisioned (moving down the field rapidly without allowing the D time to set up).

Again, would you rather have one shot at a TD from the red zone or two shots at a TD from the red zone, in the last few minutes of a game? If UM had been down only 6, and a FG would have brought us with down 3, then I'd understand the FG.

 

[Griz Man]

So PlayerRep, I feel like my explanation a couple of post above was a pretty good one, but you didn't respond to it. And again, the point isn't to make everyone come to the one "right answer", but to make sense out of it from a Stitt perspective. I feel like my take does make sense, and for what it's worth, my gut agreed with Stitt's gut at the time. I had a bad feeling about going for the TD in that situation from the 11 yard line.

I also think that Stitt's overall unorthodox decision-making style helps build confidence in his team, and plays with the minds of opposing coaches and players. Very few coaches win that game for Montana yesterday, and as earlier posters commented, I think Stitt understands momentum and the psychology of the game very well.

 

[Griz Man]

Sorry, you did respond already, but you're still thinking about it mathematically, using the standard field manual of football situations. I feel like I explained things pretty well, given Stitt's offensive system.

 

[PlayerRep]

UM had 15 pass completions over 11 yards. UM converted 3d and long 4 of 10 times. UM converted 4th and long 2 of 4 times. UM had momentum. I still say the odds of getting a TD from 11 at that point of the game, with our receivers, was over 50%. Most of you guys apparently would just throw away that freebie chance, which, if successfully, would have eliminated the risk of having to stop NDSU and score a TD within a few minutes.

 

[fanofzoo]

UM had 15 pass completions over 11 yards. UM converted 3d and long 4 of 10 times. UM converted 4th and long 2 of 4 times. UM had momentum. I still say the odds of getting a TD from 11 at that point of the game, with our receivers, was over 50%. Most of you guys apparently would just throw away that freebie chance, which, if successfully, would have eliminated the risk of having to stop NDSU and score a TD within a few minutes.

Ok, say we score the TD that only happened once before from the red zone so that's not high percentage. Does Stitt go for two, hell yes (still not high percentage). Now the Bison have the ball with plenty of time to score a FG. We get the ball back with hardly anytime left and would be forced to kick a long FG, you comfortable with that, I'm not.
No I didn't talk with any players before, during or after the game, wait I did go to the field after the game to congratulate them.

 

[horribilisfan8184]

Stiff knows this team and the game of football better than anyone on this forum, including those who played the game and watched with former players. I personally thought, the gambler Stitt is, the field goal try was going to be a fake.

 

[ordigger]

Why did UM kick last FG?

Simply to irritate PR.

I honestly don't care, I never played the game....but we won - so yay GRIZ!

 

[PlayerRep]

UM had 15 pass completions over 11 yards. UM converted 3d and long 4 of 10 times. UM converted 4th and long 2 of 4 times. UM had momentum. I still say the odds of getting a TD from 11 at that point of the game, with our receivers, was over 50%. Most of you guys apparently would just throw away that freebie chance, which, if successfully, would have eliminated the risk of having to stop NDSU and score a TD within a few minutes.

Ok, say we score the TD that only happened once before from the red zone so that's not high percentage. Does Stitt go for two, hell yes (still not high percentage). Now the Bison have the ball with plenty of time to score a FG. We get the ball back with hardly anytime left and would be forced to kick a long FG, you comfortable with that, I'm not.
No I didn't talk with any players before, during or after the game, wait I did go to the field after the game to congratulate them.

Yes, I'm satisfied with going for it from the 11, scoring a TD, and then holding NDSU. Don't know why you wouldn't be. We held NDSU. Why don't you think we could hold NDSU after we scored a TD? Why don't you think it would be easier for UM to win with a FG than to have to drive all the way for winning TD? Either I'm not understanding you, or you are not making sense.

 

[Yukon]

Jesus PR. Griz win and your pissed they didn't win it your way? For F*** sake.

 

[br fan]

that field goal provided the points to win the game. also, to get no points out of the situation would have deflated momentum, and football is, they tell me, a game of momentum.

This. If the Griz had not scored on that drive momentum would have shifted.

Nope, momentum wouldn't have shifted at all. The points didn't do UM the good it needed, as they still needed to get the ball back and score a TD. If you think getting the FG gave UM momentum at that point, you obviously never played the game.

I didn't say scoring the field goal gave them momentum. I said if they would not have scored the momentum would have shifted. Stitt's a gambler but it's all based on statistics. Statistically the Griz were more likely to score with a FG than going for it. With 2 minutes left he probably would have gone for it. With 4 minutes left would you still be second guessing him?

 

[CV Griz Fan]

It showed how much trust he has in Gregorak and the defense. That will go a long way for the rest of the season.

No it didn't.

I agree with PR that the FG decision didn't necessarily show confidence in the D. The TV announcers kept harping on the fact that Stitt's 4th down decisions were based on his "gut feelings". If it felt right, he'd go for it. If you remember, the Griz were going backwards on that red zone possession. I think they had a five yard penalty while inside the 10 yard line and they looked a little out of sorts. Stitt probably felt that converting on that 4th and goal was going to be too difficult. He wanted some points out of the possession. Rather than going for the tie and risking the game if the Griz didn't get the TD, he decided on the FG. He was livin' to fight another play. I can't say I disagree with his analysis. Sure it took a huge 4th down conversion by the Griz O to put the team in a position for the win but things worked out....

 

[Blue Tears]

I am not sure why player thinks 4th and goal from the 11 is such a sure bet. It is not a high probability outcome for the offense. The defense has the end zone as a buffer and they know they can't get beat deep because the back line is OUT OF BOUNDS. It is much more difficult than 4th and 11 from anywhere else on the field. Kicking the fg kept our momentum and gave us the winning margin. I think player is just practicing is lawyer skills for when he has to convince people that his client is innocent when they are obviously guilty. I would like to see you tell Stitt what you think of his late game decision making. He would laugh hysterically. Message boards are for discussion, but you aren't into that, you are only into arguing your point and seeing it one way. You have tunnel vision, and it affects your ability to have an intelligent discussion. This isn't a court room. When you are obviously wrong, just let it go. You would probably gain some credibility for other times when you are making a good point. It is obvious you love the Griz, so enjoy yesterday's outcome. Remember, the decision led to a Griz win over top ranked and four time defending National Champion North Dakota State. It is hard to see the failure in that.

 

[GrizUp]

UM had 15 pass completions over 11 yards. UM converted 3d and long 4 of 10 times. UM converted 4th and long 2 of 4 times. UM had momentum. I still say the odds of getting a TD from 11 at that point of the game, with our receivers, was over 50%. Most of you guys apparently would just throw away that freebie chance, which, if successfully, would have eliminated the risk of having to stop NDSU and score a TD within a few minutes.

Ok, say we score the TD that only happened once before from the red zone so that's not high percentage. Does Stitt go for two, hell yes (still not high percentage). Now the Bison have the ball with plenty of time to score a FG. We get the ball back with hardly anytime left and would be forced to kick a long FG, you comfortable with that, I'm not.
No I didn't talk with any players before, during or after the game, wait I did go to the field after the game to congratulate them.

Yes, I'm satisfied with going for it from the 11, scoring a TD, and then holding NDSU. Don't know why you wouldn't be. We held NDSU. Why don't you think we could hold NDSU after we scored a TD? Why don't you think it would be easier for UM to win with a FG than to have to drive all the way for winning TD? Either I'm not understanding you, or you are not making sense.

Don't you think that NDSU's playcalling changes between the two situations? With a 4 point lead, a field goal for UM does no good, so they can try to burn a little clock and send us back to the 20 to go for the touchdown, as opposed to having a potentially tied game or NDSU down 1 if we go for 2. At that point, a field goal for NDSU wins it, and the playcalling goes from burning time to getting within field goal range. I still don't understand how you think a 4th and goal from the 11 is a "freebie"...

 

[PlayerRep]

Jesus PR. Griz win and your pissed they didn't win it your way? For F*** sake.

I'm not pissed in any respect. Couldn't be happier. Don't have a complaint in the world. Just trying to discuss the finer points of football on a football message board.

 

[Potomac Griz]

UM had 15 pass completions over 11 yards. UM converted 3d and long 4 of 10 times. UM converted 4th and long 2 of 4 times. UM had momentum. I still say the odds of getting a TD from 11 at that point of the game, with our receivers, was over 50%. Most of you guys apparently would just throw away that freebie chance, which, if successfully, would have eliminated the risk of having to stop NDSU and score a TD within a few minutes.

4th and 6 from the NDSU 36 and 4th and 10 from the NDSU 44 are a hell of a lot different than 4th and goal from the 11. Much more room for our WRs and offense to do something in the other two situation.

I still don't understand how you think a 4th and goal from the 11 is a "freebie"...

Yep, it certainly wasn't a given or likely even 50%. 4th and goal from the 11 with the defense not having to worry about getting beat deep & just having to keep the Griz out of the endzone is going to be VERY difficult to convert. Hell, we were marching backwards which led to that 4th and 11... Sure we converted 4th and long (6yds and 10yds) earlier in the game, but those were done at the NDSU 36 and NDSU 44.

 

[PlayerRep]

It showed how much trust he has in Gregorak and the defense. That will go a long way for the rest of the season.

No it didn't.

I agree with PR that the FG decision didn't necessarily show confidence in the D. The TV announcers kept harping on the fact that Stitt's 4th down decisions were based on his "gut feelings". If it felt right, he'd go for it. If you remember, the Griz were going backwards on that red zone possession. I think they had a five yard penalty while inside the 10 yard line and they looked a little out of sorts. Stitt probably felt that converting on that 4th and goal was going to be too difficult. He wanted some points out of the possession. Rather than going for the tie and risking the game if the Griz didn't get the TD, he decided on the FG. He was livin' to fight another play. I can't say I disagree with his analysis. Sure it took a huge 4th down conversion by the Griz O to put the team in a position for the win but things worked out....

It's arguably easier to complete a TD pass from the 11 than from the 5 or so. More room to operate.

 

[cameo]

Just be thankful it's a new year. Delaney would have punted.

 

[PlayerRep]

UM had 15 pass completions over 11 yards. UM converted 3d and long 4 of 10 times. UM converted 4th and long 2 of 4 times. UM had momentum. I still say the odds of getting a TD from 11 at that point of the game, with our receivers, was over 50%. Most of you guys apparently would just throw away that freebie chance, which, if successfully, would have eliminated the risk of having to stop NDSU and score a TD within a few minutes.

4th and 6 from the NDSU 36 and 4th and 10 from the NDSU 44 are a hell of a lot different than 4th and goal from the 11. Much more room for our WRs and offense to do something in the other two situation.

I still don't understand how you think a 4th and goal from the 11 is a "freebie"...

Yep, it certainly wasn't a given or likely even 50%. 4th and goal from the 11 with the defense not having to worry about getting beat deep & just having to keep the Griz out of the endzone is going to be VERY difficult to convert. Hell, we were marching backwards which led to that 4th and 11... Sure we converted 4th and long (6yds and 10yds) earlier in the game, but those were done at the NDSU 36 and NDSU 44.

1. I don't necessarily agree that 4th and 6 or 10 from midfield is easier to convert than 4th 11/goal. In the midfield situations, while there is much more room on the field, the vast majority of the time the pass is going to be shorter and with 20 yards of the line of scrimmage.

2. The 4th and 11 was a freebie chance to score a TD, whether the chance of success was 50%, 25% or whatever. If successful, UM has tied the game, converted for 2 and gone ahead, or gone for 2 and been down 1. If unsuccessful, UM is in essentially the same situation that it was in after the FG. It had to hold NDSU and drive the length of the field in little time for a TD. In the unsuccessful TD attempt situation, the ball would have been on the 11 or closer to the goal line. Time would not have run off the clock for a kickoff, and there would have been no risk of a long kickoff. Stopping NDSU quickly and driving (80) for a TD with 1:39 on the clock, was a very unlikely scenario. I still think that the chances of scoring a TD on 4th and 11 were greater than stopping NDSU and scoring a TD in the remaining minutes. But that really wasn't the choice. UM could have chosen to do both. The only positive of the FG was that with the unlikely holding NDSU quickly and going 80 yards for a TD scenario, UM didn't have to go for the tie and try to win on OT, or go for 2 to win. I don't know why anyone would trade a 25%-50% chance of getting a TD now against not having to win in OT or win with a 2-pt conversion. And it seems it would be a big positive to just score a TD now rather than betting that the team could hold NDSU right away and come all the way down the field for a TD. Why not take both of those chances to get a TD? It wasn't an either-or situation, we could have done both.

If UM hadn't gotten the ball back and scored a TD, wouldn't most everyone been saying that taking the FG was wrong?

 

[PlayerRep]

Just be thankful it's a new year. Delaney would have punted.

I heard the Delaney had an instinct that the Griz would be better off kicking in both halves and having the D on the field to start both halves. UM won that game. His instincts must have been right.

 

[RobGriz]

You all can say what you want about PR but if the GRIZ hadn't have won yesterday there'd be a bunch of you on here agreeing with him. I personally think he's right but no ones paying me to coach.