Which 4?

[Wolf777]

If the Griz do go 8-3, there will be at least two quality wins and SOS will improve dramatically. Now, ask me if I think that will happen…

Valid points, future sos is 29 with todays data, which gives the Griz the 11th best future SOS in the BSC. I know what you think will happen, and this is a moot point.

Hard to say on quality wins, as that will depend on the teams rankings at the time of play, looking at todays data there would be two wins against top 25 teams, defeating Sac and UC Davis. The misconception is I am saying they are not in at 7 D1 wins, in reality I said they would be on the bubble. They could get in depending on a lot of factors, but like last year, they would be a bubble team.

A big issue when comparing 7-3 teams on the bubble is who did you defeat in OOC, their SOS, and who did they defeat. They only real way we can compare, not that is the best tool, just look at NAU/Griz/Utah Tech.

Ferris State doesn’t matter. People think differently but that is incorrect, per a conversation I had with Troy Dannen when he was on the committee and AD at UNI. They can only hurt you. I visited with him after this video was released [https://youtu.be/eCotwOXYY44?si=UZ...onder the rest of the FCS hates our fan base.

 

[CatsRback]

The Griz need to win 4 of the last 6 to be on the bubble. Which 4 do they win? Here are the Massey thought on the chance of winning.

UCDavis 48%
Idaho 40%
NC 97%
Sac 49%
PSU 70%
Cats 36%

Massey has them winning two, NC and PSU.

Who do they upset?

The fan base.

You win

 

[mthoopsfan]

8-3 ... in, one way or another.

Every year, we go through this (non)debate. It always comes down to how many (7-4) teams are in the running. Admittedly, some will say the Griz are only 6-4 because of Ferris State. But if, as seems highly likely, FSU dominates D-II again, that win will count every bit as much (or more) as a win over winless FCS opponent.

The trick now is to win those three or four games.

No it won’t. The win literally does not count. I don’t know why people don’t understand this concept.

Also if we’re a “bubble” team with wins over
Butler
UtahTech
Idaho State
No Colorado
Portland State
And idk UC Davis.

I would rather they just leave us out of the playoffs and we can start the new coaching hire early.

You don’t know the rules. Ferris absolutely counts as a win.

 

[CatsRback]

Valid points, future sos is 29 with todays data, which gives the Griz the 11th best future SOS in the BSC. I know what you think will happen, and this is a moot point.

Hard to say on quality wins, as that will depend on the teams rankings at the time of play, looking at todays data there would be two wins against top 25 teams, defeating Sac and UC Davis. The misconception is I am saying they are not in at 7 D1 wins, in reality I said they would be on the bubble. They could get in depending on a lot of factors, but like last year, they would be a bubble team.

A big issue when comparing 7-3 teams on the bubble is who did you defeat in OOC, their SOS, and who did they defeat. They only real way we can compare, not that is the best tool, just look at NAU/Griz/Utah Tech.

Ferris State doesn’t matter. People think differently but that is incorrect, per a conversation I had with Troy Dannen when he was on the committee and AD at UNI. They can only hurt you. I visited with him after this video was released [https://youtu.be/eCotwOXYY44?si=UZ...all seen it. Now win some ball games! :lol:

 

[Wolf777]

This whole thread is based on a big IF!!!!!!

So, IF we continue to be in the discussion for the bubble year in and year out instead of what seed we will be, then we are just the next UNI. We should not hold onto a staff as long as UNI has Farley if that is the case.

We were supposed to be competing for championships by this point in the rebuild, not just sniffing around at-large playoff spots that we get due to name only. Christ, maybe we already are UNI. No wonder the rest of the FCS hates our fan base.

Everyone hates UNI because the committee loves them. Everyone hates UM because they still think they’re championship caliber every single year. We get it Wa-Gris is nice. We’ve all seen it. Now win some ball games! :lol:

That used to be the case. Last year it was because it was they felt we got a playoff spot we didn’t deserve. The way this season is going that again may be the best case scenario. Hope I’m wrong. Regardless, FTC.

 

[CatsRback]

Everyone hates UNI because the committee loves them. Everyone hates UM because they still think they’re championship caliber every single year. We get it Wa-Gris is nice. We’ve all seen it. Now win some ball games! :lol:

That used to be the case. Last year it was because it was they felt we got a playoff spot we didn’t deserve. The way this season is going that again may be the best case scenario. Hope I’m wrong. Regardless, FTC.

Believe me when I say: You’re not wrong… FTG :thumb:

 

[Robsnotes4u]

No it won’t. The win literally does not count. I don’t know why people don’t understand this concept.

Also if we’re a “bubble” team with wins over
Butler
UtahTech
Idaho State
No Colorado
Portland State
And idk UC Davis.

I would rather they just leave us out of the playoffs and we can start the new coaching hire early.

You don’t know the rules. Ferris absolutely counts as a win.

No you do not know the rules, Ferris State is a non-counter. It isn’t even in the discussion.

 

[Robsnotes4u]

This whole thread is based on a big IF!!!!!!

So, IF we continue to be in the discussion for the bubble year in and year out instead of what seed we will be, then we are just the next UNI. We should not hold onto a staff as long as UNI has Farley if that is the case.

We were supposed to be competing for championships by this point in the rebuild, not just sniffing around at-large playoff spots that we get due to name only. Christ, maybe we already are UNI. No wonder the rest of the FCS hates our fan base.

Everyone hates UNI because the committee loves them. Everyone hates UM because they still think they’re championship caliber every single year. We get it Wa-Gris is nice. We’ve all seen it. Now win some ball games! :lol:

The committee loves them because their SOS is ale]ways strong, and when they look like they are out of it, they finish the year strong. Correct on Montana.

 

[mthoopsfan]

You don’t know the rules. Ferris absolutely counts as a win.

No you do not know the rules, Ferris State is a non-counter. It isn’t even in the discussion.

Nope. You are wrong. Ferris counts in overall record criteria. It, of course, doesn’t count for the criteria that says teams with only 6 D1 wins may not be considered.

 

[3-7-77]

I admire the reasoning and strength of conviction for all of the predictions out there. I, on the other hand, have only what I see on my TV screen to base my opinion on.
I would probably have more faith if I actually was in attendance in WGS. Christ, that always got me pumped up. The Rah Rah factor is always worth a few points. At least I don't have hours of driving to get home, constantly looking left and right for those goddamned deer. I always felt like I was on point on a nighttime jungle recon. UGH!

Nope. Just the TV and me. I don't understand the play calling(esp. the first half), poor execution, and Bobby's calm demeanor when I see things going to hell. It's like he knows, but sh*t happens. I have no faith that we can even win the UNC or PSU games based on their games this weekend. They are improving. The Griz seem to be lead by a guy with a red tipped white cane, and wearing dark sunglasses. I know, Mr. Doom and Gloom.

 

[mthoopsfan]

This was how the SRS was set up initially. I assume it’s still the same.

“ Games against Division III or non-NCAA opponents are also not factored into any team’s NCAA SRS rating.”

D2 games included in SRS.

 

[HookedonGriz]

4 more wins is a playoff bid not a bubble. No 8-3 Big Sky team is not going to be left out. What are you thinking?
3 more wins may be a bubble or may be no-go. It would depend the other bubble teams. Each if the games is winnable. One game at a time. The o-line needs to get better. O-line looked much better, but needs to be better than that. We shall see.

8 and 3 with one non-counter is 7-3. 7 wins, like last year would put you on the bubble, not automatically in. You do not seem to understand SOS, quality wins, wins versus rated teams, and who you lost to. 3 more wins is definitely out. The committee meets weekly, they are responsible for watching games, not just looking at wins and losses.

The Griz SOS is 85 out of 122 teams, that isn’t good.

The NCAA is going put out their simple rating system in late October or Early November after a 2 year absence, mainly do to the crap that happened last year. They need more transparency. After this week the pollsters are saying the BSC isn’t as strong as they thought in the beginning of the year, except for MSU and Idaho. Read up.

This is correct. The D2 win doesn’t count at all. You need 7 FCS/FBS wins to get on the bubble. Griz 100% have to win 4 of 6

 

[BWahlberg]

The Griz need to win 4 of the last 6 to be on the bubble. Which 4 do they win? Here are the Massey thought on the chance of winning.

UCDavis 48%
Idaho 40%
NC 97%
Sac 49%
PSU 70%
Cats 36%

Massey has them winning two, NC and PSU.

Who do they upset?

Honestly I could see them winning just about every game and I could see them losing every one of them too

 

[Ut-Grizfan]

If i'm being honest my gut tells me we will be lucky to be 5-6 by the end of the year, 6-5 at best so I feel this is somewhat a moot point.

 

[Copper Griz]

The Griz need to win 4 of the last 6 to be on the bubble. Which 4 do they win? Here are the Massey thought on the chance of winning.

UCDavis 48%
Idaho 40%
NC 97%
Sac 49%
PSU 70%
Cats 36%

Massey has them winning two, NC and PSU.

Who do they upset?

Honestly I could see them winning just about every game and I could see them losing every one of them too

I cannot see them beating MSU nor Idaho. Especially Idaho on the road. Sac State - possibly. UCS - 40-60 unless McDowell really settles in and the O line blocks better. Saw some play calling yesterday that was better. Saw a lot of poop calls too. I expected better out of Walker this year. He is getting blown up consistently. The O line play is going to have to improve dramatically. So will DE play. How does this team stop MSU? I don’t see it happening

 

[Da Boyz Mom]

If i'm being honest my gut tells me we will be lucky to be 5-6 by the end of the year, 6-5 at best so I feel this is somewhat a moot point.

Ditto

 

[mthoopsfan]

Honestly I could see them winning just about every game and I could see them losing every one of them too

I cannot see them beating MSU nor Idaho. Especially Idaho on the road. Sac State - possibly. UCS - 40-60 unless McDowell really settles in and the O line blocks better. Saw some play calling yesterday that was better. Saw a lot of poop calls too. I expected better out of Walker this year. He is getting blown up consistently. The O line play is going to have to improve dramatically. So will DE play. How does this team stop MSU? I don’t see it happening

EWU was tied with Idaho at the half yesterday, and down 3 after the 3d q. Idaho rushed big, but only passed 8-18 for 128 and 1 pick.

Massey has us almost even with Davis. Even if Massey is correct at this point, UM still has over a 1/3 chance of winning. I still think each of these games is winnable, if the team can be more consistent and improve in several areas.

 

[Copper Griz]

I cannot see them beating MSU nor Idaho. Especially Idaho on the road. Sac State - possibly. UCS - 40-60 unless McDowell really settles in and the O line blocks better. Saw some play calling yesterday that was better. Saw a lot of poop calls too. I expected better out of Walker this year. He is getting blown up consistently. The O line play is going to have to improve dramatically. So will DE play. How does this team stop MSU? I don’t see it happening

EWU was tied with Idaho at the half yesterday, and down 3 after the 3d q. Idaho rushed big, but only passed 8-18 for 128 and 1 pick.

Massey has us almost even with Davis. Even if Massey is correct at this point, UM still has over a 1/3 chance of winning. I still think each of these games is winnable, if the team can be more consistent and improve in several areas.

Make no mistake. I hope they do win and win big. The improvements need to happen at a quick pace. MSU is a problem game. Need more offensive production against Idaho, Sac State and MSU to get a wi.

 

[indiancoyote]

No it won’t. The win literally does not count. I don’t know why people don’t understand this concept.

Also if we’re a “bubble” team with wins over
Butler
UtahTech
Idaho State
No Colorado
Portland State
And idk UC Davis.

I would rather they just leave us out of the playoffs and we can start the new coaching hire early.

You don’t know the rules. Ferris absolutely counts as a win.

The record submitted by the conference
to the selection committee only includes D 1 games.

 

[CDAGRIZ]

8-3 ... in, one way or another.

Every year, we go through this (non)debate. It always comes down to how many (7-4) teams are in the running. Admittedly, some will say the Griz are only 6-4 because of Ferris State. But if, as seems highly likely, FSU dominates D-II again, that win will count every bit as much (or more) as a win over winless FCS opponent.

The trick now is to win those three or four games.

No it won’t. The win literally does not count. I don’t know why people don’t understand this concept.

Also if we’re a “bubble” team with wins over
Butler
UtahTech
Idaho State
No Colorado
Portland State
And idk UC Davis.

I would rather they just leave us out of the playoffs and we can start the new coaching hire early.

I’m responding only to say that I like the way you listed the teams. It fits my eye. If you include “Also”, it’s almost a right triangle.