While I'm waiting for the GFP to get spread around all of our podcast platforms I wanted to share some quick research I put together.
As has been shared around here. If the Griz win - they're in, it's a 100% lock. I believe they have a long shot for a seed still, I'll share more below. If the Griz lose they're on the bubble for sure and will need a lot of breaks to help them. So, I looked at some scenarios and here's my take:
The Griz could get a seed - I'll admit, its an extreme long shot. Montana's resume wouldn't be too bad, all 3 losses single scores against ranked/playoff bound teams, two on the road without our starting QB. We have a great Sagarin ranking, a solid SoS overall, and will be coming off a road win against the #3 team in the country. Beyond that, we need a lot of help.
- #3 MSU loses to #13 UM
- #4 NDSU loses to #19 UND
- #8 William & Mary beats #11 Richmond
- #9 Samford loses to #19 Mercer
With those 4 losses Montana moves into the top 10 at the end of the season. That top 10 contains Jackson State who isn't going to the playoffs. Again, it's a LONG shot but could UM sneak out the 8 seed over Furman or Elon (Elon is on a bye, Furman plays 3 win Wofford). An argument could be made for it.
The Griz could get in with a loss on Saturday - Fascinatingly enough, in many cases they'll need some of the games I listed above to go the OTHER way. A 7-4 Montana team will have no "good" wins and no "bad" losses. All 4 losses could/should be to playoff teams, as we know right now 3 of them are by 1 score. In this scenario Montana needs other bubble teams to falter as well. Not all of these games need to go this way, but if a handful did it would greatly help us. I'd think if UCD loses we're looking good, if they win we're going to need 2 or 3 of these other games to break our way as well.
- #24 UC Davis loses to #2 Sac State - this is probably the single biggest "help" UM could have to make it.
- #17 SEMO wins their coin toss. Yep, you read that right. SEMO plays a 2 win Murray State this weekend, UT-Martin plays a 3 win Eastern Illinois. Despite being a conference of just 7 teams SEMO and UT-M didn't play each other this year and both are undefeated in the conference. If both win on Saturday the conference champion will be selected by way of a coin toss. UT-M is not getting in if they don't win that coin toss. SEMO with a win is in regardless and pushes a bubble team out if they don't win that coin flip.
- #4 NDSU beats #19 UND. That bursts UND's bubble most likely and helps Montana
- #20 Delaware loses to Villanova (5-5). Probably also puts UD on the outside looking in
- #9 Samford beats #19 Mercer. Craig Haley's early season darling Mercer is sent packing. Samford won their conference but is playing for a seed so they're not going to roll over in this game.
- Kennesaw State (5-5) beats Eastern Kentucky (6-4). EKU probably doesn't have the pedigree to get in with a win anyways. I thought they'd crack the top 25 this week but they didn't.
- #23 SE Louisiana loses to Nichols. If SELA and Incarnate Word win on Saturday SELA gets the auto-bid and UIW gets a seed. UIW is playing NW State and is heavily favored. Nichols has only won 3 games themselves so a win for them is unlikely, but if they do SELA is not going to the playoffs.
As has been shared around here. If the Griz win - they're in, it's a 100% lock. I believe they have a long shot for a seed still, I'll share more below. If the Griz lose they're on the bubble for sure and will need a lot of breaks to help them. So, I looked at some scenarios and here's my take:
The Griz could get a seed - I'll admit, its an extreme long shot. Montana's resume wouldn't be too bad, all 3 losses single scores against ranked/playoff bound teams, two on the road without our starting QB. We have a great Sagarin ranking, a solid SoS overall, and will be coming off a road win against the #3 team in the country. Beyond that, we need a lot of help.
- #3 MSU loses to #13 UM
- #4 NDSU loses to #19 UND
- #8 William & Mary beats #11 Richmond
- #9 Samford loses to #19 Mercer
With those 4 losses Montana moves into the top 10 at the end of the season. That top 10 contains Jackson State who isn't going to the playoffs. Again, it's a LONG shot but could UM sneak out the 8 seed over Furman or Elon (Elon is on a bye, Furman plays 3 win Wofford). An argument could be made for it.
The Griz could get in with a loss on Saturday - Fascinatingly enough, in many cases they'll need some of the games I listed above to go the OTHER way. A 7-4 Montana team will have no "good" wins and no "bad" losses. All 4 losses could/should be to playoff teams, as we know right now 3 of them are by 1 score. In this scenario Montana needs other bubble teams to falter as well. Not all of these games need to go this way, but if a handful did it would greatly help us. I'd think if UCD loses we're looking good, if they win we're going to need 2 or 3 of these other games to break our way as well.
- #24 UC Davis loses to #2 Sac State - this is probably the single biggest "help" UM could have to make it.
- #17 SEMO wins their coin toss. Yep, you read that right. SEMO plays a 2 win Murray State this weekend, UT-Martin plays a 3 win Eastern Illinois. Despite being a conference of just 7 teams SEMO and UT-M didn't play each other this year and both are undefeated in the conference. If both win on Saturday the conference champion will be selected by way of a coin toss. UT-M is not getting in if they don't win that coin toss. SEMO with a win is in regardless and pushes a bubble team out if they don't win that coin flip.
- #4 NDSU beats #19 UND. That bursts UND's bubble most likely and helps Montana
- #20 Delaware loses to Villanova (5-5). Probably also puts UD on the outside looking in
- #9 Samford beats #19 Mercer. Craig Haley's early season darling Mercer is sent packing. Samford won their conference but is playing for a seed so they're not going to roll over in this game.
- Kennesaw State (5-5) beats Eastern Kentucky (6-4). EKU probably doesn't have the pedigree to get in with a win anyways. I thought they'd crack the top 25 this week but they didn't.
- #23 SE Louisiana loses to Nichols. If SELA and Incarnate Word win on Saturday SELA gets the auto-bid and UIW gets a seed. UIW is playing NW State and is heavily favored. Nichols has only won 3 games themselves so a win for them is unlikely, but if they do SELA is not going to the playoffs.
