Brin5, thanks for all of the info and forecasts you make every week-right thru our eventual national championship. The is the first week in a while that you haven’t said, "This week scares me." Does this week not scare you? I think you're being generous giving them 10 points, and I don't think it'll be that close. Be nice to see Fonoti, Running Rabbitt, and Jones in this one; as well as Jensen and Flowerd. I believe CWU would B eat this team
It’s the 2nd leg of Montana’s back to back road games and up next is Weber State. Weber has had a tough year, including losing their starting QB to a shattered leg (when sliding) amongst other injuries. Despite a losing record though (2 of their 5 losses are to FBS teams), Weber for the most part plays teams tough and has kept themselves in most games. I doubt the Grizzlies are taking this game for granted because just last year a then 2-3 Weber State came into Wa Griz, and hung almost 550 yards and 55 points on Montana in a shocking win that forced Montana to really reevaluate a lot of things, especially defensively.
Weber’s stats across the conference aren’t great;
- 10th in offense scoring / 11th in defense scoring (Montana is 1st in offense / 2nd in defense)
- 11th in total offense / 7th in total defense (Montana is 1st in offense / 5th in defense)
- Weber has the worst passing offense in the conference, 6th best rushing
- Weber doesn’t give up many sacks, but is 5th worst in sacks allowed
- Weber does have the 3rd highest amount of interceptions forced (Montana is 1st)
Weber State Wildcats 3-5
10-45 loss @ James Madison – Weber had it to 28-10 in the mid 3rd, but then JMU shut the door on them scoring the last 21 points in the 4th quarter. JMU ran for 313 yards in the game and grabbed 3 INTs from Weber.
3-48 loss @ Arizona – Arizona passed for over 400 and ran for another 150 in the game, while Weber was held to just 185 total yards of offense. Pretty ugly game, Weber only crossed midfield twice.
42-41 win @ McNeese – Weber was up 42-21 after a pick 6 with less than 10 minutes in the game, and still almost lost. McNeese would battle back, scoring 3 times, including a 79 yard TD run, and would score with 44 seconds left in the game to set the score to 42-41. Instead of going for the tie, they opted for a 2 point conversion, the ball was batted at the line by a Weber DT, and the Wildcats hung on. Lots of offense on both sides of the ball, almost 540 for McNeese and almost 480 for Weber. Both teams had 2 lost interceptions as well.
38-24 win vs Butler – Weber just gradually out-paced Butler in this game and even had enough of a lead to not let a 17 point Butler run in the 2nd quarter phase them much. Weber’s offense had a real solid 260 rushing and 185 passing, all while their defense held Butler to less than 250 total yards. 2 more lost INTs for Weber though!
12-34 loss @ UC Davis – Here’s the game where their UTSA QB took a routine slide to avoid a hit and shattered his leg. Davis was in control through the game, Weber was up 3-0 but the next time they’d score Davis had a 17 point lead. Weber ran for 140, Davis ran for 175, however Davis passed for over 300 while Weber had just 175 passing. Davis relied on some big scores – two near 50 yard TD passes and an 85 yard one as well.
27-55 loss vs Sacramento State – Recapped this one last week, it was a downpour and Sac’s ground game decimated Weber. Sac had nearly 400 yards rushing in the game – which was almost 100 yards more than Weber’s total offense (301 yards). Sac only punted twice and had 3 players with over 100 yards. Weber’s new QB played a cleaner game than the prior starter, he passed for a TD and ran for one but wasn’t the most efficient – but no turnovers.
43-27 win @ Portland State – PSU sored two garbage time TDs (less than 5 min in the game) to make the game seem a little closer, the Vikings did have over 300 yards passing but seemed generally disinterested in rushing the ball effectively – just 65 yards on 33 attempts. Meanwhile Weber’s offense got some footing, 220 rushing, 150 passing
20-23 loss vs Eastern Washington – EWU gutted out an ugly win, securing the W with a pick at mid-field with just a few minutes left in the game, all while just having 199 yards of total offense against Weber. EWU punted 10 times in the game! Meanwhile Weber would miss a field goal on one drive, give up a safety on a fumble in the endzone that they recovered, and had 2 lost interceptions. One of EWU’s TDs was also a 2 yard drive coming off a muffed punt where Weber handed the ball back to the Eagles on their own 2 yard line. In the 2nd half EWU’s offense would not cross mid-field once, the furthest they got was the Weber 44, with 5 three and outs in a row
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General Stats
Passing yards per game GRIZ (294 for GRIZ vs 147 for WEB)
Rushing yards per game GRIZ (183 for GRIZ vs 172 for WEB)
Total offense GRIZ (477 for GRIZ vs 319 for WEB)
Passing yards allowed per game WEB (252 for GRIZ vs 216 for WEB)
Rushing yards allowed per game GRIZ (148 or GRIZ vs 197 for WEB)
Total defense GRIZ (400 for GRIZ vs 413 for WEB)
Offense points scored GRIZ (41.5 for GRIZ vs 24.4 for WEB)
Defense points allowed GRIZ (24.1 for GRIZ vs 37.1 for WEB)
Turnover margin GRIZ (+4 for GRIZ / -3 for WEB)
Field goal % WEB (71% for GRIZ vs 82% for WEB)
Punt Returns GRIZ (11.9 yards for GRIZ vs 6.4 yards for WEB)
Kick Returns GRIZ (25 yards for GRIZ vs 20.1 yards for WEB)
T.O.P. GRIZ (30:54 for GRIZ vs 30:18 for WEB)
Red Zone defense (touchdowns) GRIZ (64% GRIZ / 74% WEB)
Red Zone offense (touchdowns) GRIZ (79% GRIZ / 54% WEB)
3rd down offense GRIZ – (47.9% for GRIZ / 34.3% for WEB)
3rd down defense WEB – (37.4% allowed for GRIZ vs 36.8% allowed for WEB)
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Montana gets 14, Weber gets 3 – their 3rd down defense and passing defense stands out.
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Weber State Players to Watch:
#25 Davion Goodley, RB – One of the two Weber RBs that we’ll see a lot of, Goodley has missed 1 game this season but still leads the team with 512 yards rushing and 4 rushing TDs, he’s got 40 receiving yards as well, he’s a bigger 200 pound back.
#5 Chauncey Sylvester, RB – A 195 pound back who missed a lot of games in September, but regardless he’s got 305 yards rushing and 4 rushing TDs as well. He’s a bit more of a receiving threat as well, he’s got 88 receiving yards and 1 more TD there.
#10 Dijon Jennings, QB – Jennings has taken over since Gilkey’s broken leg, his stats so far this season has him with 457 passing yards, 2 passing TDs, 3 INTs. While Gilkey was a good rusher, Jennings has just 6 total rushing yards and 1 rushing TD. Jennings is an Akron transfer.
#4 Jayleen Record, WR – A 5-8, 175 pound transfer from JMU, he leads the team in receiving yards with 244 and has 1 TD there. He’s also a dangerous kick returner with a near 23 yards per return average.
#0 Mason Hitchens, LB – The leading tackler on the Weber defense, he’s got 59 tackles, and 5 TFLs. He’s their Tolbert, just seems to be in on every play.
#13 Sione Hala, LB – 40 tackles for this 225 pound linebacker, he’s got 4.5 TFLs, and 1.5 sacks on the season.
#97 Matt Herron, DT – A 6-3, 280 pound D-lineman, he’s got 34 tackles, a team best 5.5 TFLs, and 2 sacks this season.
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Keys to a Grizzly victory
- Avoid the hangover – These next few weeks are oddly sandwiched between big games and this is the first and maybe only time this year Montana will have back to back road games. Having 1 extra day to rest up is hopefully good for Montana this week. Coming in to Weber focused and ready after a high stakes win at Sac will be key. Weber is a tough and physical team and if Montana comes to town thinking it’s an easy win they could get a bit of a surprise.
- Run the damn ball – Weber seems to be really susceptible to running teams. This is a great game to establish better line dominance and get all of our 3 backs plenty of touches.
- A positive turnover margin – Weber’s turnover prone at times, it would be great if Montana can continue their turnover trends of late in having a strong margin against opponents. Weber killed themselves against EWU, let’s keep that going.
- Improve 3rd down play – Weber few statistical advantages are that their 3rd down defense is better than Montana’s + we saw some real frustrating 3rd and long conversions by Sac last week. I would love to see Montana have a strong day against the Weber defense on 3rd and not give up as many 3rd and medium/long conversions.
- Turn RZ trips into points – Weber’s RZ offense isn’t great, their kicker is one of the top scorers bc they sputter out a lot. Montana coming away with TDs can hopefully out-pace Weber’s field goals.
- Have special teams set up short fields – Get some good return yards, pin them deep – keep building on the success that ST has been having in October.
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Montana needs to use this game and the next few for improvements, all while being prepared that a few teams would just love to serve them an L and ruin their perfect season (so far). Weber caught Montana on their heels last year so they know how to do it, but I’ll venture that is still on the minds of our players who were here last year and our coaching staff.
I could see a bit of a slow start here but then Montana gets rolling as the game goes. I’d love to see some depth guys get some extra reps and time so some of our starters aren’t taxed as much – but that’s going to require earlier execution so the Griz can have a solid lead. In yet another “not so comfortable at half” type of games, I see Montana pulling away and winning 42-10.
Go Griz!
