The Griz hit the road yesterday afternoon for Weber State. I’m a little late in getting this report done but as always I wanted to get it up. Weber and UM are two programs reeling from unexpected off-season coaching turnover. Weber thought they were set with the hiring of John L Smith but he suddenly jumped ship in the summer and took a much higher-paying job and returned to the school he was previously coaching at – Arkansas. Weber is coming off their bye week and will be well rested and well prepared for the Griz, even though UM is having one of their worst seasons in the last 25 years Weber will still be gunning for the win as a small victory to a pretty terrible season.
Record: 1-7
10-37 loss to Fresno St: Fresno hit Weber with a balanced attack, 220 rushing and 300 passing, meanwhile their defense held the Wildcats to just 67 rushing yards. Fresno played a little sloppy though, it was 24-10 heading into the 4th qtr, neither team was very efficient on 3rd down. Lots of punts in this game.
13-45 loss to BYU: BYU stacked up almost 550 total yards of offense and held Weber to just 140 passing yards in an easy win. Weber lost two fumbles, had a PAT blocked, and while they didn’t give up any ST scores they did allow a lot of return yards which set up BYU for plenty of shorter-field scoring drives.
21-35 loss to McNeese St: Playing then-ranked McNeese in Ogden the Wildcats started really slow and a late surge made the game look closer than it really was. Weber tacked on 14 points with less than 3:30 in the game, up until then McNeese was cruising with a 35-7 lead. McNeese, just like BYU, put 550 yards of offense on Weebz, 300 of that coming on the ground (including a 91 yard TD run). Weber, once again, could do very little, just 250 total yards of offense.
26-32 loss vs EWU: EWU thought they were going to run away with this, up 20-3 at halftime but Weber fought back, opening the 3rd qtr with a TD & 2 point conversion. EWU added 9 more points (td with missed PAT and fieldgoal) and then WSU scored another TD to end the 3rd qtr finding themselves down just 10 (29-19). In the 4th EWU kicked another fieldgoal to get to 32, Weber answered with a TD, with 3:30 left in the game. Weber stopped EWU and got the ball back with 1:42 left in the game and was putting together a nice drive that crossed into EWU territory until QB Mike Hoke was sacked and lost a fumble, game over. Once again, the balanced attack for EWU was effective, nearly 475 yards split evenly between running and passing. Weber finally found some room on offense, passing for nearly 300 yards. Weebz was -2 on the day and both turnovers lead to EWU points (10).
13-37 loss to UCD: Weber out-gained Davis, mostly thanks to nearly 275 yards passing in the game but 5 costly turnovers kept Weber from getting on the board much. 3 picks, 2 lost fumbles, 4 sacks, 1 missed fieldgoal, 1 turnover on downa… yeah it was an ugly day. UCD scored 23 of their 37 points off these errors.
23-45 loss to CPSLO: So if I told you one team had 528 yards and the other had 345, there was just 1 turnover the whole game, looking at the box score you’d think Poly had the bigger numbers, but they didn’t. Weber’s offense ripped the Poly defense, the story of the game was field position. Weber’s average starting field position (without officially calculating it) looks like it was about on their own 20, while Poly’s average starting field position was probably darn-close to midfield, starting 4 drives on Weber’s side of the field. Poly also had a pick-6 and forced an early turnover on downs that they scored a TD on shortly after that.
14-19 loss vs Sac St: It was a defensive battle, Sac had 310 yards total while Weber had 237. Sac had 2 turnovers, Weber had 1 – Sac got after Hoke, sacking him 5 times. Sac held a small lead through the game, Weber scored with 3:00 left to make it 19-14 but couldn’t get the ball back.
24-22 win vs SUU: You could see it coming, Weber’s shown defensive improvements over the last few weeks and they were finding themselves “in” more games than before, they finally broke through and beat a team, Southern Utah. Weber jumped all over SUU, holding a 21-6 lead in the 3rd qtr and a 21-9 lead into the 4th. SUU in the 4th added a TD, then WSU kicked a fieldgoal. With 4:20 left in the game SUU got the ball and went down the field, scoring a TD with 54 seconds left, but the 2-point conversion which would have tied it up, failed. SUU did not recover the on-sides kick and it was game over. Weber ran for 140, passed for 206 – while SUU ran for just 43 but passed for 320.
-------------------
Players to watch:
#11 Mike Hoke, QB: Hoke’s senior season hasn’t been the best, I predicted he could be a dark horse break out star this year before the season started and I was off-base apparently. He’s averaging about 200 passing yards/game and before you take away lost yards on sacks about 50 rushing yards per game. He’s a big guy, 6-2, 235 pounds.
#22 CJ Tuckett, RB: The main running back for the team, Tuckett has 514 yards and 5 rushing TDs this season, he’s also 3rd on the team in receptions (22) although he’s just got 120 receiving yards total, he’s 2nd on the team behind just Hoke in total offense. Not having JP to cover him could be something Weber exploits.
#5 Jordan Clemente, TE: The most catches on the team, yep – he’s a TE as well. Clemente is a big dude at 6-4, he’s got 33 catches this year for 246 yards, no TDs. Watch for him early and often considering we’re down an LB and our safeties have had lots of pass-coverage issues.
#83 Erik Walker, WR: Looks to be the red-zone guy, Walker has 282 yards this year and 4 receiving TDs.
#4 Xavian Johnson, WR: Leads the team in yards with 377. He’s got a huge 17.1 yard per catch average and just 1 TD this season.
#7 Kris Parham, RB: He’ll get far fewer carries than Tuckett, however Parham has 210 rushing yards and 1 TD this season, he’s also got 34 receiving yards, and he’s the main kickoff returner with a 20.5 yard/return average.
#44 Anthony Morales, MLB: Leads the team in tackles with 72, which is 30 more tackles than the 2nd leading tackler! He’s got 7.5 TFLs but just 0.5 sacks, he’s also forced 1 fumble. It’s safe to say he’ll be in on just about every tackle out there.
#2 Willie Okwuonu, FS: 2nd on the team in tackles with 42, he’s also got 2 PBUs and 1 forced fumble.
#46 Trevor Pletcher, DE: Leading the team in sacks with 3, he’s got 15 tackles this year.
#3 Devin Pugh, CB: Looks like the #1 corner, he’s missed a few games and didn’t play against SUU, unsure on his status.
------------------------------
General stats:
- Weber State’s scoring offense is dead last in the league with just 18 points per game (Montana’s is 35.2 per game). Breaking it down further Weber is averaging a little better at home, 23 points/game, while UM on the road is averaging 32 points/game.
- Weber’s rush D is 3rd worst in the league, while their pass D is ranked 9th in the league.
- Weber’s turnover margin is -5 this season (they’ve only had 3 picks the whole year), while UM’s is -4.
- Weber’s biggest issue has been slow starts, they’ve only scored 6 points in the 1st qtr… this whole season. They’re being out-scored by nearly a 3:1 ratio in the 1st half.
- Both the Griz and Weber have about the worst RZ defense, each allowing scores 90% of the time, both also allowing TDs essentially the same too (Weber 62%, UM 61%).
- Weber’s punt coverage is bad, however their punter (Epperson) tore his MCL against SUU – he was a top FCS punter, not sure on the new guy. Up to now Weber gives up almost an average of 12 yards/return on punts and 28 yards/return on kickoffs.
---------------------------
Keys for a Grizzly victory:
- Looking at the Weber roster they’ve been really beat up by injuries, I’d mentioned their punter Epperson who tore his MCL, while he was a great punter he was also tied for 2nd in tackles playing safety I believe as well. He had a pick, a few PBUs, he was a leader on defense. The Griz I assume will be looking to exploit the many holes in Weber’s defense that’s been beat up badly.
- More of the same, start Shay and mix up passing/rushing. Balanced attacks have burned Weber this season, so keep at it.
- Take advantage of field position, this new punter for Weber isn’t as good (but he’s no slouch either). Make the most of kick/punt returns to set up shorter fields for the offense.
- Regardless if Coyle shifts to JP’s spot or if it’s Owen they’ve got to watch the short/mid passes. Weber likes to attack the middle of the field with their big TE. They’ll be looking to test our defense that’s down a few guys.
- Sacks, both ways. Weber’s defense is 2nd worst in the Big Sky with just 10 sacks, meanwhile their offense has allowed the 3rd most. UM’s pass rush is one of the best in the FCS and they’ve not allowed a lot of sacks either.
- Contain Hoke. The dude can and will run – don’t let him beat you with his feet. I’m thinking back to quite a few games this year where the Griz D had 3rd and long but went into a shell coverage that allowed the QB to run for the first when all of his downfield options are covered.
- Give Schmaing help. The Schmaing era starts tomorrow at LT. Put Counts or Kirsch in there to give him help at times as I presume Weber will test him.
- Force Weber to go more 1-dimensional and pass a lot. I know that could be inviting trouble with our pass D but Weber’s passing offense so far has not been incredibly efficient, 8 TDs / 8 Ints, nearly a 50% completion rate.
- Win the turnover battle. Both of these teams are turnover prone, the winner could be the team that wins this battle.
- Take some risks. Weber will, they’ll go for a few 4th down conversions, be ready for some unconventional stuff.
------------------
The good news is that the weather will be on our side as it’s going to actually be pretty warm and pleasant, usually in years past Weber has had ice/snow/mud/rain when we met – not this time. That shouldn’t neutralize our team speed as much. I think that considering both teams have iffy defenses and are apt to turning the ball over we could see a bit of a sloppy game. I think the Griz win this, but it’ll be closer than some would prefer. I think I guessed a 29-22 win in the other prediction thread.
Go GRIZ!
Record: 1-7
10-37 loss to Fresno St: Fresno hit Weber with a balanced attack, 220 rushing and 300 passing, meanwhile their defense held the Wildcats to just 67 rushing yards. Fresno played a little sloppy though, it was 24-10 heading into the 4th qtr, neither team was very efficient on 3rd down. Lots of punts in this game.
13-45 loss to BYU: BYU stacked up almost 550 total yards of offense and held Weber to just 140 passing yards in an easy win. Weber lost two fumbles, had a PAT blocked, and while they didn’t give up any ST scores they did allow a lot of return yards which set up BYU for plenty of shorter-field scoring drives.
21-35 loss to McNeese St: Playing then-ranked McNeese in Ogden the Wildcats started really slow and a late surge made the game look closer than it really was. Weber tacked on 14 points with less than 3:30 in the game, up until then McNeese was cruising with a 35-7 lead. McNeese, just like BYU, put 550 yards of offense on Weebz, 300 of that coming on the ground (including a 91 yard TD run). Weber, once again, could do very little, just 250 total yards of offense.
26-32 loss vs EWU: EWU thought they were going to run away with this, up 20-3 at halftime but Weber fought back, opening the 3rd qtr with a TD & 2 point conversion. EWU added 9 more points (td with missed PAT and fieldgoal) and then WSU scored another TD to end the 3rd qtr finding themselves down just 10 (29-19). In the 4th EWU kicked another fieldgoal to get to 32, Weber answered with a TD, with 3:30 left in the game. Weber stopped EWU and got the ball back with 1:42 left in the game and was putting together a nice drive that crossed into EWU territory until QB Mike Hoke was sacked and lost a fumble, game over. Once again, the balanced attack for EWU was effective, nearly 475 yards split evenly between running and passing. Weber finally found some room on offense, passing for nearly 300 yards. Weebz was -2 on the day and both turnovers lead to EWU points (10).
13-37 loss to UCD: Weber out-gained Davis, mostly thanks to nearly 275 yards passing in the game but 5 costly turnovers kept Weber from getting on the board much. 3 picks, 2 lost fumbles, 4 sacks, 1 missed fieldgoal, 1 turnover on downa… yeah it was an ugly day. UCD scored 23 of their 37 points off these errors.
23-45 loss to CPSLO: So if I told you one team had 528 yards and the other had 345, there was just 1 turnover the whole game, looking at the box score you’d think Poly had the bigger numbers, but they didn’t. Weber’s offense ripped the Poly defense, the story of the game was field position. Weber’s average starting field position (without officially calculating it) looks like it was about on their own 20, while Poly’s average starting field position was probably darn-close to midfield, starting 4 drives on Weber’s side of the field. Poly also had a pick-6 and forced an early turnover on downs that they scored a TD on shortly after that.
14-19 loss vs Sac St: It was a defensive battle, Sac had 310 yards total while Weber had 237. Sac had 2 turnovers, Weber had 1 – Sac got after Hoke, sacking him 5 times. Sac held a small lead through the game, Weber scored with 3:00 left to make it 19-14 but couldn’t get the ball back.
24-22 win vs SUU: You could see it coming, Weber’s shown defensive improvements over the last few weeks and they were finding themselves “in” more games than before, they finally broke through and beat a team, Southern Utah. Weber jumped all over SUU, holding a 21-6 lead in the 3rd qtr and a 21-9 lead into the 4th. SUU in the 4th added a TD, then WSU kicked a fieldgoal. With 4:20 left in the game SUU got the ball and went down the field, scoring a TD with 54 seconds left, but the 2-point conversion which would have tied it up, failed. SUU did not recover the on-sides kick and it was game over. Weber ran for 140, passed for 206 – while SUU ran for just 43 but passed for 320.
-------------------
Players to watch:
#11 Mike Hoke, QB: Hoke’s senior season hasn’t been the best, I predicted he could be a dark horse break out star this year before the season started and I was off-base apparently. He’s averaging about 200 passing yards/game and before you take away lost yards on sacks about 50 rushing yards per game. He’s a big guy, 6-2, 235 pounds.
#22 CJ Tuckett, RB: The main running back for the team, Tuckett has 514 yards and 5 rushing TDs this season, he’s also 3rd on the team in receptions (22) although he’s just got 120 receiving yards total, he’s 2nd on the team behind just Hoke in total offense. Not having JP to cover him could be something Weber exploits.
#5 Jordan Clemente, TE: The most catches on the team, yep – he’s a TE as well. Clemente is a big dude at 6-4, he’s got 33 catches this year for 246 yards, no TDs. Watch for him early and often considering we’re down an LB and our safeties have had lots of pass-coverage issues.
#83 Erik Walker, WR: Looks to be the red-zone guy, Walker has 282 yards this year and 4 receiving TDs.
#4 Xavian Johnson, WR: Leads the team in yards with 377. He’s got a huge 17.1 yard per catch average and just 1 TD this season.
#7 Kris Parham, RB: He’ll get far fewer carries than Tuckett, however Parham has 210 rushing yards and 1 TD this season, he’s also got 34 receiving yards, and he’s the main kickoff returner with a 20.5 yard/return average.
#44 Anthony Morales, MLB: Leads the team in tackles with 72, which is 30 more tackles than the 2nd leading tackler! He’s got 7.5 TFLs but just 0.5 sacks, he’s also forced 1 fumble. It’s safe to say he’ll be in on just about every tackle out there.
#2 Willie Okwuonu, FS: 2nd on the team in tackles with 42, he’s also got 2 PBUs and 1 forced fumble.
#46 Trevor Pletcher, DE: Leading the team in sacks with 3, he’s got 15 tackles this year.
#3 Devin Pugh, CB: Looks like the #1 corner, he’s missed a few games and didn’t play against SUU, unsure on his status.
------------------------------
General stats:
- Weber State’s scoring offense is dead last in the league with just 18 points per game (Montana’s is 35.2 per game). Breaking it down further Weber is averaging a little better at home, 23 points/game, while UM on the road is averaging 32 points/game.
- Weber’s rush D is 3rd worst in the league, while their pass D is ranked 9th in the league.
- Weber’s turnover margin is -5 this season (they’ve only had 3 picks the whole year), while UM’s is -4.
- Weber’s biggest issue has been slow starts, they’ve only scored 6 points in the 1st qtr… this whole season. They’re being out-scored by nearly a 3:1 ratio in the 1st half.
- Both the Griz and Weber have about the worst RZ defense, each allowing scores 90% of the time, both also allowing TDs essentially the same too (Weber 62%, UM 61%).
- Weber’s punt coverage is bad, however their punter (Epperson) tore his MCL against SUU – he was a top FCS punter, not sure on the new guy. Up to now Weber gives up almost an average of 12 yards/return on punts and 28 yards/return on kickoffs.
---------------------------
Keys for a Grizzly victory:
- Looking at the Weber roster they’ve been really beat up by injuries, I’d mentioned their punter Epperson who tore his MCL, while he was a great punter he was also tied for 2nd in tackles playing safety I believe as well. He had a pick, a few PBUs, he was a leader on defense. The Griz I assume will be looking to exploit the many holes in Weber’s defense that’s been beat up badly.
- More of the same, start Shay and mix up passing/rushing. Balanced attacks have burned Weber this season, so keep at it.
- Take advantage of field position, this new punter for Weber isn’t as good (but he’s no slouch either). Make the most of kick/punt returns to set up shorter fields for the offense.
- Regardless if Coyle shifts to JP’s spot or if it’s Owen they’ve got to watch the short/mid passes. Weber likes to attack the middle of the field with their big TE. They’ll be looking to test our defense that’s down a few guys.
- Sacks, both ways. Weber’s defense is 2nd worst in the Big Sky with just 10 sacks, meanwhile their offense has allowed the 3rd most. UM’s pass rush is one of the best in the FCS and they’ve not allowed a lot of sacks either.
- Contain Hoke. The dude can and will run – don’t let him beat you with his feet. I’m thinking back to quite a few games this year where the Griz D had 3rd and long but went into a shell coverage that allowed the QB to run for the first when all of his downfield options are covered.
- Give Schmaing help. The Schmaing era starts tomorrow at LT. Put Counts or Kirsch in there to give him help at times as I presume Weber will test him.
- Force Weber to go more 1-dimensional and pass a lot. I know that could be inviting trouble with our pass D but Weber’s passing offense so far has not been incredibly efficient, 8 TDs / 8 Ints, nearly a 50% completion rate.
- Win the turnover battle. Both of these teams are turnover prone, the winner could be the team that wins this battle.
- Take some risks. Weber will, they’ll go for a few 4th down conversions, be ready for some unconventional stuff.
------------------
The good news is that the weather will be on our side as it’s going to actually be pretty warm and pleasant, usually in years past Weber has had ice/snow/mud/rain when we met – not this time. That shouldn’t neutralize our team speed as much. I think that considering both teams have iffy defenses and are apt to turning the ball over we could see a bit of a sloppy game. I think the Griz win this, but it’ll be closer than some would prefer. I think I guessed a 29-22 win in the other prediction thread.
Go GRIZ!
