montanaguy
Well-known member
kemajic said:
Idiocracy loses games.
-
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Villanova vs SELA mini scouting report
- Thread starter BWahlberg
- Start date
Idiocracy loses games.
IdaGriz01
Well-known member
Getting back to (respectable) football.
The Sagarin numbers are a clear “pickem” for the SELA - Villanova game (+0.05 for SELA, with the home-field allowance).
However, as several have commented on this thread, we may be giving Villanova too much credit, probably based on their past history. After an early run against mostly weak (Patriot League) competition, they went into a three-game skid when they played better teams (JMU, Stony Brook and UNH). Then they closed with a three-game winning streak against weak competition: Richmond (5-7), LIU (0-10, NEC), and Delaware (5-7).
The NCAA statistical rankings offer some interesting comparisons between the two teams. The Lions have a mediocre running attack. The Wildcats can probably shut that down, other than the usual “keep them honest” plays. (We’ve seen SELA play, and they run those a lot.) But SELA has the third-best passing attack in FCS, despite the fact that teams know “that’s what they do.” Conversely, ‘Nova is not good at stopping an air game (#89 in Passing Yards allowed).
Oddly enough, SELA is ranked #13 in Run Defense. Unlike SELA, which has a largely “pass first” philosophy, Villanova depends upon their run game to set up the pass. And their passing attack is pretty good. But how good will their air game be if the Lions shut down the run?
Both teams have scored a lot of points (#9 and #10). The forecast for tomorrow at SELA looks like good football weather. Barring a lot of “dropsies” by the receivers, we’re expecting an aerial show. Lots of yards, but not necessarily lots of scoring … can’t get those tough red zone yards if the running game isn’t working. As I said on another thread, I’m really lousy at score predictions, but here goes: SELA wins, 37-30.
The Sagarin numbers are a clear “pickem” for the SELA - Villanova game (+0.05 for SELA, with the home-field allowance).
However, as several have commented on this thread, we may be giving Villanova too much credit, probably based on their past history. After an early run against mostly weak (Patriot League) competition, they went into a three-game skid when they played better teams (JMU, Stony Brook and UNH). Then they closed with a three-game winning streak against weak competition: Richmond (5-7), LIU (0-10, NEC), and Delaware (5-7).
The NCAA statistical rankings offer some interesting comparisons between the two teams. The Lions have a mediocre running attack. The Wildcats can probably shut that down, other than the usual “keep them honest” plays. (We’ve seen SELA play, and they run those a lot.) But SELA has the third-best passing attack in FCS, despite the fact that teams know “that’s what they do.” Conversely, ‘Nova is not good at stopping an air game (#89 in Passing Yards allowed).
Oddly enough, SELA is ranked #13 in Run Defense. Unlike SELA, which has a largely “pass first” philosophy, Villanova depends upon their run game to set up the pass. And their passing attack is pretty good. But how good will their air game be if the Lions shut down the run?
Both teams have scored a lot of points (#9 and #10). The forecast for tomorrow at SELA looks like good football weather. Barring a lot of “dropsies” by the receivers, we’re expecting an aerial show. Lots of yards, but not necessarily lots of scoring … can’t get those tough red zone yards if the running game isn’t working. As I said on another thread, I’m really lousy at score predictions, but here goes: SELA wins, 37-30.
